Tuesday, January 12, 2010

“Going for growth is the government’s number one priority this year. It is more than a sound bite”GB

BCC signals no end to recession in fourth quarter

A survey of 5,400 businesses by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) concluded that while improvements were evident in some parts of the economy, momentum was not sufficient to drive a recovery in the final three months of the year. "These figures indicate that we are not yet out of recession," said David Frost, director general of the BCC. "A lack of demand is at the heart of it. Domestically we are not seeing the level of demand required to haul us out of it."

Posted by cat and canary @ 11:44 AM (2627 views)
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50 thoughts on ““Going for growth is the government’s number one priority this year. It is more than a sound bite”GB

  • It has to be said that the BCC never stop campaigning for lower interest rates and assorted concessions so this survey has to taken with a pinch of salt.

    Having said that, my economy focused chums are not as confident about the fourth quarter as they were in November. They still think their forecasts are correct but only because December retailing was better than they thought. Both the service and manufacturing sectors have slightly disappointed them. This doesn’t bode well for the first quarter 2010 because the retailing results are really just a temporary boost and most retailers are hunkering down for a grinding 2010. We really need the service and manufacturing sectors to step up to the plate. There is hope that the benefits of the lower pound have yet to feed through to the data but there are definitely more nerves showing than there were before Christmas.

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  • This is contrary to what I heard on the radio this morning. In fact when the ONS gave a similar downbeat report the radio said the opposite.
    The broadcast media is drivel.

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  • Ha ha maybe they were “going for broke” – and achieved it!

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  • Hi Flash

    Has the percentage probability for the double-dip increased? I thought being “officially” out of recession when the next set of GDP numbers are announced is a formality. 26th Jan is the date for the prelim isnt it?

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  • Hi techie: “Has the percentage probability for the double-dip increased?”

    That’s a very difficult question because I don’t know how I would quantify such a thing. I would also need to know your definition of a double dip? Presumably you would define it as one quarter of positive growth followed by a certain number of negative quarters?

    Having said that, my instinctive read on the situation (just listening to the bods who work this stuff) says that the chance of a double dip recession has recently increased to about 40% from 20%. There is quite a bit of anxiety, that wasn’t there before Christmas.

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  • “There is quite a bit of anxiety, that wasn’t there before Christmas.”

    Not ’round here!

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  • Thanks Flash. i would define DD as a number of +ve growth up to 3 (i know thats pushing it a bit!) followed by the classic 2qtrs of negative growth.

    So yes i am not surprised the that DD has a bit more probability than before – although its still the minority view. Also i think when we say +ve growth we have to be careful as to how much growth there is. As you know a +.5% rise followed by a -2% fall and then another +.5% rise – wouldnt be a recession although over the period there would be negative growth. So that wouldnt be a DD. [I am only using these numbers to illustrate the point].

    I suppose the real question is will we have net positive growth over the coming x quarters (regardless of the academic DD or not)..

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  • P.s. i dont why why ive fallen into the “negative growth” trap! I think i should use “contraction”!!

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  • cat and canary says:

    This story’s a classic example of the tabloid “negative/positive spin” argument which folks regularly post about on here,

    compare headlines:

    1) Telegraph…. BCC signals no end to recession in fourth quarter

    2) BBC….. UK ‘close to leaving recession’

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  • “UK ‘close to leaving recession'”

    It’s academic anyway, isn’t it – with less credit and “return on investment”, life will be less flash. 😉 Less spending means feeling less affluent.
    Also, the growth was not genuine growth, so with reduced credit there will be less spending until (genuine) growth reaches the same levels. Can genuine growth reach the levels of the bogus growth?

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  • Completely off topic, but an HPC old-timer just told me that at least five and probably more, of the most frequent posters are one and the same person. Am I the only person who didn’t know this?

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  • @flashman – there is a suspicion that one person has multiple logins (but I doubt anyone can conclusively prove this) – regulars on here have probably also come to the same conclusion simply by following the postings (911 youtube clips is a bit of a clue)

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  • Flash, there is some odd behaviour. There are many theories about identities, but exactly who is who I can’t tell you. If within the same character, personalities can be remarkably different, which may be a giveaway. To be honest, you’re on my suspect list!

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  • rumble: You were one of the accused.

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  • cat and canary says:

    ..yeah!!!, and speaking of multiple identities, I reakon…

    Flashman = Roger Bootle
    Jack C = Vince Cable
    Rumble = Jeremy Paxman

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    “A lack of demand is at the heart of it”

    Hey! I’ve an idea! Crank up house prices to create the feelgood factor and get people spending. Simples!

    What’s all this with “double dip”? The last proper recession we had lasted from early 1970s to early 1990s, with the odd bit of house-price and credit-bubble inspired faux growth in late seventies and especially late 1980s. Does that count as a “double dip”?

    PS, as I entirely lack the imagination required to think up a snappy pseudonym, I only ever post using my own name. So it wasn’t me.

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  • Flash, haha!

    Cnc, that will amuse me for a long while!

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  • flash i think
    it’s malcom teacher aka malct , devo and crunchy

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  • mark w: “The last proper recession we had lasted from early 1970s to early 1990s, with the odd bit of house-price and credit-bubble inspired faux growth in late seventies and especially late 1980s”

    Superbly radical.

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  • @cat and canary – how on earth did you find this out? there will now be an enquiry at my parliamentary office and I will now have to give up posting on here !!!!!

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  • cat and canary says:

    Tecchie = Bud Fox
    Smugdog = Jeremy Clarkson
    Crunchy = David Ike

    we’ve got all sorts of folks on here!

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  • cat and canary says:

    ah, see, it was the cunning name change..

    > John Vincent Cable, born 1943,
    > drops the name “Vincent” too obvious
    > “John Cable” still too obvious since John is your real name,
    > so change John to Jack
    > Use surname initial, just to be sure,
    > Hey presto, end up with “Jack C”

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  • Very good, let’s see you work the others!

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  • I’m Spartacus

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Well, I’m not Spartacus, obviously.

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  • cat and canary says:

    ah well!,

    > Rumble is a sound that hungry stomach’s make
    > In response to a lack of food
    > Turkey is a food, normally eaten at Christmas,
    > Turkey was traditionally stuffed with Paxo in the 60s and 70s
    > “Paxo” was Jeremy Paxman’s nickname

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  • Who’s trying to hide?

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  • We all wear a mask.

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  • Phantomoftheopera says:

    True. True.

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  • Some more than others.

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  • Manintheironmask says:

    Was that a sneer?

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  • I resent the suggestion.

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  • Who is that flash man anyway?

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  • They call him…. George Osborne!

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  • @ 24. I’ve just spat my Mediterranean tomato soup onto the keyboard. I’m Spartacus indeed!

    Actually, If we’re on the subject of who’s who I was beginning to suspect that Flash was Alastair Campbell or some similar Labour spin doctor. Obviously quite bright, well informed, educated and puts forward a plausible argument – Classic technique is to gain the respect of the blogging community by aligning your views, then gradually start to undermine opinions contrary to those our ‘leaders’ would like us to accept. Dammit, Devo and Crunchy have even got me looking over my shoulder for conspiracies now.

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  • 21. cat and canary said…

    Tecchie = Bud Fox
    Smugdog = Jeremy Clarkson
    Crunchy = David Ike

    David Ike?…..he will be offended, probably Clarkson too.

    P.Doff – I was buying it until I got to ‘obviously quite bright’..

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  • paranoia blue says:

    Just trying to keep abreast of things, whatever happened to Sam Fox?

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  • Her holdings ended up with just a couple of major assets – these have headed south in recent times (rumour has it their on their knees) and left her opened mouthed…….mind you she’s still smiling, and her face seems to be less wrinkled, somehow.

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  • CnC, you got me.

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  • Completely off topic, but an HPC old-timer just told me that at least five and probably more, of the most frequent posters are one and the same person. Am I the only person who didn’t know this?

    I don’t see what anyone would go to the trouble.

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  • I wondered when the village idiot would make an appearance

    No one is interested in your comments. No one ever responds to your comments. Your absence would not be noticed. That’s really what drives you crazy, isn’t it?

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  • I am Spartacus.

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  • krustyatemyhamster says:

    No actually, that’s really what drives you crazy; hence the constant attention-seeking behaviour.

    As I was saying: projection.

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  • i just think if someone – anyone has something worthwhile to say it will be picked up and commented on – if not it wont. Who actually says it is of secondary importance – but then again thats just a view.

    Sure everyone likes to say something that gets a response now and then – thats ego i think. I plead guilty to that – at least occasionally.

    Goodnight lads, and play nice!

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  • joseph andrews would have enjoyed this thread

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  • It’s hardly a secret Skippy

    Well that’s 4 malcts smoked our in one thread. Not a bet winner but good enough

    krustymalct: The Sarah bird gave you a well deserved spanking (it was particularly funny when she caught you lying). You made a fool of yourself by calling her flashman and then went on to call smugdog flashman as well. You might have fooled a few people with your angry malct act but several of us worked you out. As one of your other selves would say …Do one

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  • What a revealing series of posts. Helps reinforce some suspicions I’m sure.

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  • The krustymalct is too close to the braindeedmalct. I think we could get by with just three of you.

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