Friday, January 1, 2010

Fox shows cunning insight

House price forecasts for 2010

List of forecasts from a range of familiar names. Interesting not for the usual bluster from the VIs at the top but the winner of last year's forecasting efforts - a fox. Reminds me of the 3-year-old who most closely forecast the FTSE a few years ago. Happy New Year

Posted by letthemfall @ 11:35 AM (953 views)
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3 thoughts on “Fox shows cunning insight

  • I’m prepared to be outsmarted by the fox again and go for -10% over the next 12 months
    Happy New Year

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  • hi LTF Happy new year to you.

    As you will probably know im a fan of Dominic (no not that one!) i actually met him last year which was quite cool anyway he is the most bearish of the forecasters and this is what he says:

    Dominic Picarda, FT Money contributor

    -10 per cent (at least)

    After the false dawn of 2009, I expect housing’s major collapse to resume at some point in 2010. The market remains seriously overvalued, with November’s price-to-income ratio at roughly the same level it was in late 1989, when the last crash was barely under way. History suggests the worst falls often occur in post- recessionary years, which is what 2010 will be. Interestingly, the Halifax index has fallen by almost the same amount as it had at the equivalent stage of the previous crash. Assuming this trajectory continues, I expect an inflation-adjusted fall of at least 10 per cent in 2010.

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  • Yep, I’m with techieman on this one. Dominic Picarda is a sound contributor to forcasts such as these, minimum 10% in my opinion as the crash was only postponed, with rates set to rise and unemployment continuing its relentless toll on the professional sector I would go as far as to say 15%+. I feel that this is a conservative estimate as any rises last year was due to lack of supply, as soon as the zombie households hit the estate agents inventory prices could very well spiral downwards far quicker than many suspect.

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