Tuesday, Dec 08, 2009

Will 2010 be the year of the big HPC?

BBC NEWS: Will house prices keep rising or fall again in 2010?

Following yesterday's stunning forecast by Crunchy, what about 2010?
Come on Smugdog, even you could have a go, or maybe just do a CML, not make any forecast and then claim you were right!

Posted by wdbeast @ 12:13 PM (2168 views)
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1. smugdog said...

Trudging through the winter snow, they spot a glimmer of light in the distance.

Wearily they fight the driving blizzard and crawl towards the frozen window.

Brushing away the ice from the frozen pane of glass, all is well inside, warmth, laughter and merriment abound.

They turn and feel the harsh wind once more on their beaten faces. Unloved and with despair, they head off into the unknown.

Farewell HPCer the homeowner cries, farewell.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009 12:52PM Report Comment

2. techieman said...

"Contrary to almost everyone's expectations, prices started rising in the spring and have kept on going pretty much every month since then."

Sometimes its good to be contrary and other times not so.

JD or FP is mentioned and there is a credibility problem for him and the rest of the pundits that didnt forsee the bounce. So how much longer will the bounce last? Or have we just had a single bear move from the top?

To answer the first point, the bounce was likely to go on for "longer and higher than most think" and to "reverse the thinking of some of the bears on this site" and to get "some bulls to start posting [again]". Is it enough now? Well personally i still think the jury is out... we are definitely closer to the end of the bounce than the beggining but the rest (unless you are a pro and have access to all sorts of good data) is a bit of guesswork.

Will it continue into the spring and summer? Will labour continue to mortgage the next generation(s) future to try to prop it all up? If they do will that create some momentum and suck people in?

as for 1 - nope think not 2 yep 3 possibly.So the same rule applies as before... dont get bullish about being bearish until you have seen 2 consecutive monthly falls in Halliwide indicies.

Perhaps there has been a final rush to beat the stamp duty rise.It would be interesting to see the stats in their full glory!

Tuesday, December 8, 2009 12:54PM Report Comment

3. jack c said...

From the coalface


This from Abbey yesterday - We have made some changes to our risk criteria.

Let to Buy
The maximum LTV on the let property if remaining mortgaged with Abbey is 75%.

We also require the following evidence;

Rental Income - Additional Information Form

Proof of Savings (above any deposit) to cover a minimum of six months rent

Proof of deposit

Maximum Term
The maximum term for all mortgages is 35 years, except pure interest only which is 25 years.

Proof of deposit
We accept gifted deposits provided no interest in the property is registered by a third party. Please record in the Notes section on Introducer Internet that:

“A gifted deposit of £x,xxx from (name of person and relationship to applicant). (Name of person) will not have any interest in the property nor protect the gift by taking a second charge”.

If the deposit is being provided by a third party as a loan or protected by a Deed of Trust (or similar) then we would not accept the deposit. If a First Time Buyer was putting down a large deposit we may request additional proof of deposit.


Total incoming resources fell 13.4% in 2008 to £15.05 million at the ifs School of Finance, according to its annual results for the year.The registered charity said the main reason for the reduction in its revenue had come from a ‘precipitous decline’ in registrations for its benchmark qualification for mortgage advisers, the Certificate in Mortgage Advice and Practice (CeMAP). Donald Brydon, chairman of the ifs, said the collapse of the UK property market had had an ‘immediate and substantial impact’ on the ifs’ mortgage qualification, resulting in the fall in revenue. ‘With few property transactions, there was very little requirement for mortgage advice,’ he wrote in the chairman’s report. ‘The result was that the seemingly endless queue of advisers requiring the ifs’ national benchmark qualification in order to be authorised by the regulators to provide such advice, virtually disappeared. Inevitably, this had an immediate financial impact. Source Citywire 8/12/2009


The Silver Bullet - UK Interest rate rises

Tuesday, December 8, 2009 01:33PM Report Comment

4. matt_the_hat said...

smugdog its all over the only people getting mortgages are the ones transferring onto lender SVR (previously the worst possible deal). No one can borrow cheaper than their government as the people of Greece are about to find out. I'll stay out in the cold a little longer with my gluhwein thank you.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009 01:38PM Report Comment

5. Mr Cobblepot said...

A comment on the article, then something to ponder over tea and a custard cream

Q. If overpriced house valuations caused the entire mess that the world in now in, why is the government pleased with its effort to increase the value of houses?
A. The forthcoming election, thats why?, plus its addicted to debt and policy dictates that because the west can no longer compete with developing countries, it must survive (perhaps 30-40 years) by having consumer and service industry based economies........until perhaps the following occurs.

Having a high standard of living and being prosperous in the first world can only be maintained at the expense of someone else (i.e. the 3rd world). But once the 3rd world is given a taste of the good life, the first world is screwed........................unless of course the 3rd world developing nations decide to, or are conviced that, they must go to war with each other, which has been the case since the year dot.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009 01:45PM Report Comment

6. wiltshire said...

"Trudging through the winter snow, they spot a glimmer of light in the distance.

Wearily they fight the driving blizzard and crawl towards the frozen window.

Brushing away the ice from the frozen pane of glass, all is well inside, warmth, laughter and merriment abound.

They turn and feel the harsh wind once more on their beaten faces. Unloved and with despair, they head off into the unknown.

Farewell HPCer the homeowner cries, farewell."

The clock turns and spring optimistically bursts all around. Birds sing, lambs gamble, yadda yadda.

Homeowner is awakened from his dreamless slumbers by the sound of the dawn chorus and opens a sleepy eye.

He can see a beautiful valley, crisply held in the grip of the first rays of the early morning sun.

Mother nature in all her glory welcomes the world to another day.

What a shame he's sleeping in a bivouac in the woods cos he got made redundant on Christmas Eve.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009 01:47PM Report Comment

7. alan said...

Thanks Jack C,

"The Silver Bullet - UK Interest rate rises". Interest rates are being kept artificially low. When this manipulation is released (or broken) we will see a rapid rise in mortgage costs. Fewer people are opting for fixed deals, over the past few months. Therefore variable ratepayers will be all the more vulnerable to a rate uplift when it arrives.

If you can forecast that turning point you have the key to house price rises and many other things. The European Central bank and the Fed have made gentle whispers that their rates could rise in the spring. How the Labour government might react is anyone's guess months before an election!

Tuesday, December 8, 2009 01:47PM Report Comment

8. mander said...

I would like to predict 10 years of misery; in 2010 the confidence in the housing market will die and in 2020 we will have half price houses and have adopted the Euro or the new world currency by then.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009 01:57PM Report Comment

9. bidin'matime said...

The government can manipulate it all they like, but at the end of the day we are a borrowing nation and we borrow from the rest of the world and they will dictate our interest rates. The issue is being dodged by keeping offered rates low and letting Sterling slip, but sooner or later the lenders will want to build that prospect into the rate (to cover their currency losses), so there will be no escape - our leaders will have the choice between bankrupt government or higher rates.

Or to put it another way, the government can pay people's mortgages for them for only so long before they run out of money completely...

Tuesday, December 8, 2009 02:03PM Report Comment

10. jack c said...

We have debated long and hard the fact that UK residential property prices have defied gravity when all indicators such as rising unemployment etc.. are factored in. The Silver Bullet in this market is a rise in interest rates however I go along with bidin'matime and think that during 2010 the market will potentially dictate where rates are pitched rather than BOE.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009 02:19PM Report Comment

11. Jayk said...

First it was 2008. Then 2009. Now it's 2010. When will this mythical crash ever materialise?

Next year in Jerusalem, eh?

Tuesday, December 8, 2009 05:35PM Report Comment

12. tenyearstogetmymoneyback said...

Posted this earlier in the Halifax thread

Fitch notes, over two-thirds of UK borrowers are now on floating rate home loans (ones that change as underlying rates change, unlike fixed rates).

I'm not surprised. I was in Nationwide last weekend (paying in a cheque) and noticed that while the SVR was 3.99%
a two year fix was 6.14%. What does this say for their expectations of mortgage rates in a couple of years time ?

I have cross checked the figures against the Nationwide site.
I would be interested to hear from Jack C if these sort of rates are normal nowadays

Tuesday, December 8, 2009 11:50PM Report Comment

13. jack c said...

10 years - my understanding is that Nationwide SVR is 2.5% - this from their website - "The Base Mortgage Rate (BMR) Customers with deals reserved on or before 29 April 2009 revert to the variable Base Mortgage Rate (BMR), our Standard Variable Rate, for the remainder of the mortgage term. The interest rate of our BMR product is currently 2.5% and amongst the lowest standard variable rate of all major high street lenders


Mortgage lenders have continued to cut fixed rates, causing the average two year fixed mortgage rate to fall further. Last week, Moneyfacts revealed that the average rate on a two year fixed rate mortgage product fell below 5.00% (4.99%) for the first time since June. Since then, rates have fallen even further, with the average currently standing at 4.86%. This represents that most marked weekly decline since the beginning of the year, when the Bank of England cut the base rate of interest by 0.50% to 1.50%. Amongst the lenders to have cut fixed rates in the last week include: Abbey - selected rates cut by 0.20%; Accord Mortgages - rates cut by 0.40%; Alliance and Leicester - selected rates reduced by up to 0.25%; Cheltenham and Gloucester - selected rates cut by 0.10%; first direct - selected rates reduced by 0.05%; Leeds BS - selected rate reduced by 0.26%; Post Office - rates reduced by up to 1.30%; Scottish Widows Bank - rates reduced by up to 0.40%; Yorkshire BS - rates reduced by up to 0.30% "Lenders finally appear to be putting the 'open for business' sign back in the window and bringing competition back to the mortgage market. Margins on fixed rate mortgage deals have steadily increased in the last year as lenders looked to repair damaged balance sheets," commented Michelle Slade, spokesperson for Moneyfacts Group.

Hope this helps

Wednesday, December 9, 2009 09:46AM Report Comment

14. tenyearstogetmymoneyback said...

Just rechecked this and got the same figures cut straight from their web site

6.14% 3.99% 4.7% APR None+ Branch or phone

Figures were for a first time buyer with 20% deposit on a £150000 mortgage

Wednesday, December 9, 2009 07:05PM Report Comment

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