Monday, December 28, 2009

UK Inflation Forecast 2010

UK CPI Inflation Forecast 2010, Imminent and Sustained Spike Above 3%

The UK Inflation forecast for 2010 seeks to replicate the accurate forecast of 2009 (30 Dec 2008 - UK CPI Inflation, RPI Deflation Forecast 2009) proved remarkably accurate with the road map contributing towards the generation of many accurate projections for subsequent trends throughout 2009 and not least for UK savers that for those that followed my cue of fixing savings at rates of above 5% for 1 - 2 years would not have been burned by the subsequent crash in UK interest rates to pittance of as low as 0.1% on savings accounts across the bailed out banking sector and later for stock market investors that monetized on the stealth bull market that began in March 2009 the genesis for which was in the preceding inflation analysis forecast.

Posted by nadeem walayat @ 04:31 AM (1522 views)
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2 thoughts on “UK Inflation Forecast 2010

  • One year ago the author said that houseprices would have dropped 35% minimum from peak. Only 6 monhts ago he said that the house prices had more to fall. Now he says that they could increase by 10% next year. this analysis looks like a U turn to me.

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  • I’ve been following Walayat, at first on house prices, closely since late 2007, and this is most definitely a U-turn. He’s been fairly good at predicting what was going to happen in the short term, as well.

    However, his forecasts tend to pursue a hyperbolic arc, based on his views of current trends extrapolated over a longer period. They also tend to view the UK economy as almost isolated from global tendencies generally. He can be caught flat-footed by policy changes either in the UK or elsewhere. His reasessements are less clear than his forecasts, giving him room to claim that he predicted the turn, as in the case of his forecast of an end to the housing bear market here. I’d say he was forecasting a Japanese perma-bear market for British housing, not an end to the bear.

    In summary, I have some faith in Walayat forecasts, but only for about 3-4 months ahead.

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