Tuesday, Dec 22, 2009

Oops - no recovery then?

Guardian: Britain in longest deepest recession

Merry xmas.

Posted by chrisch @ 11:22 AM (3237 views)
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40 Comments

1. Smiling said...

'Britain in longest deepest recession' but house price keep going up!! oooops

below from another thread:
people like Roger Bootle, really should take a good look at them selves and the disgraceful predictions that grace the front page of HPC. Even if the recovery is stimilus based or due to low interest rates etc, to not have built this into the eqation is pretty poor stuff, after all Bernanke was shouting from the rooftops in OCT '07 that the powers that matter would throw the kitchen sink at it. Don't cry foul play lads, just try to work out your next move. This site has now been going for quite a few years and it's pretty laughable that things haven't gone right for the doomsters yet give the generally accepted severity of the crisis that we are now coming out of.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 11:36AM Report Comment
 

2. little professor said...

LOL, even the banana republic of Ireland has exited its recession, yet we, with all our ZIRP and billions of pounds of QE, have managed only to stoke inflation rather than create the temporary recovery seen across the rest of the world.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 11:49AM Report Comment
 

3. jack c said...

So much for Gordon & Co telling us that we were best placed to handle any economic downturn - like him or loathe him Blair's exit strategy was timed to perfection. My concern is where do we go from here?

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 12:10PM Report Comment
 

4. mark wadsworth said...

When I was little, the wheels came off the economy, three day week, power cuts, strikes etc etc and, apart from short spells of faux growth lasting a couple of years (late 1980s), the misery (strikes, inflation, house price booms/crashes, unemployment etc) continued for about twenty years. It was until about 1994 that things seemed to really be improving.

So I'd give it another eighteen years or so.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 12:19PM Report Comment
 

5. Dude said...

During the 79/80 recession house prices only fell by a small percent. They then almost tripled in value by 1989 when the big one came. So my question is, has recession really got anything to do with HP?

If HP triple from here we are looking at an unbelievable half a million quid for a home to live in. Then again who's going to buy those houses? Does that mean that the divide of haves/have nots will be pre-Victorian times (I think we may be there already)? Is that the point of this whole exercise? Answer to last question is probably obviously yes.
ps LP Ireland voted for the EU don't forget with the expectation that they would be lifted out of recession as the reward.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 12:25PM Report Comment
 

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7. Dude said...

Forgot to say, we can't be too much out of recession otherwise IRs will be expected to rise.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 12:49PM Report Comment
 

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9. techieman said...

hpwatcher - then perhaps you can help me reconcile this "event" with the market's moves? FTSE up , GBP down. As you say them there events keep happening dont they?!?!?

And no im nor taking the proverbial - after all 'tis the season of goodwill!

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 01:21PM Report Comment
 

10. jack c said...

Worse again he still believes it ! - I hope someone raises this point during the live debates see news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8425280.stm

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 01:24PM Report Comment
 

11. crunchy said...

5. str 2007

I will judge Brown on the future success or failier of his career out of politics. Too early for me to say.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 01:27PM Report Comment
 

12. Unbeliever said...

@ 6 - If the stock market is priced in £ but has overseas earnings then a fall in stiirling will inevitably result in the stock market rising against stirling. If you priced the Ft 100 in Euros the performance over the last year might not be quite so impressive.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 01:40PM Report Comment
 

13. hpwatcher said...

hpwatcher - then perhaps you can help me reconcile this "event" with the market's moves? FTSE up , GBP down. As you say them there events keep happening dont they?!?!?

I don't know what the problem is. This is like the tech stocks effect, when tech companies were being hugely overvalued, without anything of real value behind them. In my view, the FTSE is currently overvalued and is due a rather nasty correction sometime soon.....of course, if there isn't some kind of currency crises first. Sure, some companies are doing well, but on the whole, I just don't think things are so rosy.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 01:56PM Report Comment
 

14. techieman said...

i see sometime soon hmmmm but but i thought everything moved only because of events?? could it be that mr market thinks the cost of borrowing will stay down and so costs will be restricted but its ok because the GDP numbers lag - so in reality we are coming out but the companies will have a breathing space - with low cost, low wage demands? At the same time could it be that the pound falls becaue we dont look like we are going to raise rates anytime soon?

OR maybe its that for shares, seasonally December is almost always bullish, that the Primary second wave has not done quite enough and that every bear's stops will be at the prior high and the bulls need to buy some christmass pressies before New Years day and squueze them there bears before theyare off on their picnic in early(ish) 2010 ? And as for the £ / $ a bit lower than this completes the head and shoulders target? Who knows?!?!?

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 02:13PM Report Comment
 

15. techieman said...

infact the market is always right... even when its wrong. IF you think otherwise you have a touch of the King canutes about you.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 02:22PM Report Comment
 

16. estrader said...

Techieman, as you know, there can be many reasons for a market rally
- Genuine buying by the smart money (unlikely)
- Mark-up by the smart money in preparation for distribution (highly likely)
- Distribution is complete and now there is little selling pressure so the stocks will rally in the hands of the weak and the public (highly likely)

Just MHO!

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 02:27PM Report Comment
 

17. alan said...

Maybe it would be better for Fitch and S&P to downgrade us a notch right now.

Please don't misunderstand that I want to knock the UK, but I really think this government needs to be jolted into reality in front of the UK electorate.

Does Gordon Brown really believe we "are best placed to withstand a recession" or was it all political doublespeak to keep NuLabour voters in tow. He often says something and does the opposite...didn't you notice that he talks about inclusiveness in one breath and then goes on to rubbish Cameron's school.

We are headed for the bottom of the league. If only the British climate was conducive to growing bananas!

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 02:39PM Report Comment
 

18. hpwatcher said...

i see sometime soon hmmmm but but i thought everything moved only because of events??

They do. I don't know what the event that will start it off will be, but there will be some kind of crisis and pretty soon too.


infact the market is always right... even when its wrong

Like with Tech stocks.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 02:45PM Report Comment
 

19. hpwatcher said...

Of course, it might not be a rally at all.....just a small effect of the devaluation of the pound - if you compare the FTSE to other ways of measuring wealth.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 02:47PM Report Comment
 

20. techieman said...

estrader - yes i agree with you. So sometimes its using events as an excuse to buy or an excuse to take profits- thats if it is a bullish event - as measured by ????. But hold on Hpwatcher sometimes the market rallies because of a wek pound and sometimes in spite of it so how can that work?

I realise i am banging my head against a brick wall (im really trying to help you open yr eyes HP Watcher but you want to close them and stick yr fingers in yr ears- after all as Le Crunch once said its your money :-).

For the last time its not the news its the underlying psychology of the market which shows the reaction to it.

I prefer my own counsel - which was for Cable:

[ andi was a bit slow off the 1.6411 level.
-@ 1.6375 (i did say some days ago) and + some @ 1.6200 and +some @ 1.6100 - looking for conservative low 1.59s before a bit of a bounce... but that might be too conservative!

Of course i also said that the pound gets stronger v the Euro on the cross (i was also short Euros v greenback) so we can all be wrong and often are.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 03:13PM Report Comment
 

21. estrader said...

Techieman, I'm sure you know this, but the smart money 'knows' the news days, sometimes weeks in advance. If the market moves up on what most ordinary people think is bad news then you can be near certain it is distribution. I have been skeptical about this current stock market rally for months....just like the housing market.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 03:21PM Report Comment
 

22. hpwatcher said...

I realise i am banging my head against a brick wall (im really trying to help you open yr eyes HP Watcher but you want to close them and stick yr fingers in yr ears- after all as Le Crunch once said its your money :-).

That's because I see things differently from you, and you are unable to accept that.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 03:21PM Report Comment
 

23. techieman said...

hpw - yes there is alway event risk that's true but honestly most of the time the market doesnt move on news. Its not a question of seeing things differently its just its a fact, and the only way you have longevity. Re-read etrader's comments. He is IMO 100% right. I will give you a link in a while.

Up to you whether you read it.... but i really think you should.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 03:46PM Report Comment
 

24. techieman said...

spot cable just hit 1.5940. Must have been a lucky guess i spose!

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 03:47PM Report Comment
 

25. techieman said...

and here is the link i promised.

Look at the January 2008 chart and you will see what i mean.

http://www.neowave.com/company-nov2009interview.asp

Really HPW i am trying to do you a favour but i spose you might call that patroniing.

Each to their own..

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 03:59PM Report Comment
 

26. cat and canary said...

Techieman, i'm interested on what your views are on the use of data mining news articles, given that you say most of the stock market reactions are not directly related to the public news wires:

... is the following not widely adopted in the City? Cheers, CnC

"But to a new breed of computers specially programmed to trade automatically on the latest news stories, it could be enough to make a huge sum of money.".... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bb570626-ebb6-11db-b290-000b5df10621.html?nclick_check=1

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 04:23PM Report Comment
 

27. crunchy said...

Yep, that's the type of thing I would say.

We are all in competition with each other in the market place and it's your money if you can keep it.

There is a time to trade and a time to go fishing.

Nothing more to say.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 04:24PM Report Comment
 

28. techieman said...

CNC am not registered therefore cant read it. If its some kind of computer based programme it will probably be on the basis of very short term programme buy or sells. Many times the market gryrates on news items or figures. Sometimes it follows through and sometimes it doesn’t - i.e. it goes one way and then reverses. [which of course is my point!!] Those occasions prices are taken up (down) to be taken back down again when stops are run. On LIFFE people used to high (or low) tick the market on low volumes just to squeeze out the weak paper (orders).

See:

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/07/thoughts-on-high-frequency-trading-and.html

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 04:47PM Report Comment
 

29. cat and canary said...

Cheers Tech, will take a good look at that link. The article is pasted below if your interested (published Apr 2007), Cheers, CnC

=========

To most humans, the following sentence makes little sense: "Symbol ticker = 'MAN' country = 'US' cusip = '56418H100' isin = 'US56418H1005' / symbol changesign = '+' caltype = 'percent' 2.5 / change to price value = '44.52'."

But to a new breed of computers specially programmed to trade automatically on the latest news stories, it could be enough to make a huge sum of money.

Hedge funds and bank trading desks are pouring unprecedented sums into such computers to find faster and more inventive ways to outsmart their -competitors.

News has always affected market prices and there are already programs that track news headlines and alert traders if certain market-sensitive terms or words appear frequently.

"Hurricane" could signal a shift to sell insurance stocks. "Drought" could affect wheat prices.

But a recent breakthrough is the ability to use computers to analyse years' of news stories to see how certain headlines affected market movements.

Those patterns can then be used to program computers to trade on the latest news developments.

Computers are now being used to generate news stories about company earnings results or economic statistics as they are released. This almost instantaneous information is fed directly into other computers, which trade on the news.

The result is a boom in demand from news and information providers such as Reuters, Bloomberg and Thomson Financial for "machine readable news".

This news is written in a computer-friendly language of strings of words and numbers without the need for sentences.

Computers can trade on such news within milli-seconds of receiving it - much faster than a human trader.

"One of the big consumers of news now is a computer," says Matthew Burkley, senior vice president of strategy at Thomson Financial.

"This area has turned out to be broader than we thought. Instead of being limited to a marginal number of our clients, the demand for news which is readable by a computer is very widely spread."

Reuters reports a similar boom in demand. "There is real interest in moving the process of interpreting news from the humans to the machines," says Kirsti Suutari, global business manager of algorithmic trading at Reuters.

"More of our customers are finding ways to usenews content to make money. This is where news is exciting."

The human eye is far from redundant, however. "News events are extremely subjective," says Will Sterling, head of institutional electronic trading at UBS.

"Our general approach has been to blend the automation . . . with a degree of human oversight. It's better to take an extra few seconds to be sure."

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 04:54PM Report Comment
 

30. estrader said...

CNC,

Remember 2 IMPORATANT things and you will be fine:

1) The Public is attracted by PRICE changes
2) The Public is always wrong.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 04:58PM Report Comment
 

31. hpwatcher said...

28. techieman - Thanks for the links, I will definitely listen/read etc.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 07:23PM Report Comment
 

32. mountain goat said...

"UK still in recession"

High housing costs still draining the life out of the economy.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 07:27PM Report Comment
 

33. mountain goat said...

TM - cable link for you http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/elliott_wave/gbp-usd/2009-12-22-1606-British_Pound___US_Dollar.html

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 08:01PM Report Comment
 

34. techieman said...

cnc - "News events are extremely subjective," exactly.

MG - thanks for that - yes my conservative target co-incides with his 159.20 (i have a low print at 159.22 today mid price - i paid 159.30. this is very close to the bottom of a trend channel but we may get a bit of an overthrow down tomorrow. Either way i think its a good place to take some profits. Incidentially the buy backs before where smallish percentages of the position (50% in all) to get some cash in the bank and to guard against a spike up on the remainder - "just in case"

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2009/12/blog-wonder-if-they-include-property-in-this-26917.php number 5.

Hpw - im glad you have taken a look - let me know if you find it of interest.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009 11:33PM Report Comment
 

35. techieman said...

cnc re it widely being followed in the city - i really couldnt tell you. I trade for my own account ever since i wore a red jacket at the Royal Exchange. Ahhhh those were the days, fear and greed etched on peoples faces, out for shampoo one minute, and then some argy bargy the next.

Like a giant poker fest. To tell the truth i was never the type to go in for the kill myself, or front run the paper. Thats probably why im still doing it (and didnt run off to the costas or somewhere more exotic).

Wednesday, December 23, 2009 08:08AM Report Comment
 

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38. cat and canary said...

Cheers Techieman/Estrader for your comments,

Tech, sounds like you handled the hectic LIFFE quite well?! You see any changes in the way the market behaves since algorithmic trading became so commonplace? I read an article recently, where a trader was explaining how he reackons computers tend to over-exagerate trends. Perhaps another reason why we have this odd current bull run? I've done quite a bit of work in machine "intelligence" (if you can call it that), hence my interest (not in finance, but other applications).

Wednesday, December 23, 2009 10:07AM Report Comment
 

39. techieman said...

Cnc - post LIFFE most of the traders couldn t cope without open outcry and on screen trading. It really was the end of an era. Really you had to re-learn how to do things and that took time. The scalpers had lots of problems but generally i was always looking at position trading. So yes you had to learn to reduce size (since you were gonna take em home) and work out another way.

Some people use classic technical analysis, others use some more off the wall stuff. Basically i tried lots of stuff until i found what i was comfortable with. I use around 5 indicators - on non financials as well. The error alot of people make is to try to curve fit by changing parameters, and yes sometimes the market does blow up in yr face, but changing your indicators IMO doesnt work.

I think the volatility has increased but only really around the numbers - the moves then seem to get people out more - but thats just a view. I really am not sure about it - i have changed very little since i left the Royal Ex - (i never went to canon street) - so i suppose i wouldn't "blame" programme trading. Thats a lazy excuse in my view - but i accept that i really dont know.


Cheers cnc

Wednesday, December 23, 2009 11:55AM Report Comment
 

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