Monday, Dec 28, 2009

JD without interuption

BBC 5 Live: Johnathan Davies (FP) potificates

in at 2:37:28. Maybe its me or maybe its too much Christmas pud or maybe its an overload of Christmas cheer, but a fair few contradictions by JD to my mind in his analysis. No others to get his goat either.
Still in conclusion Message is same - more falls to come..

Posted by techieman @ 10:12 AM (1708 views)
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1. techieman said...

oh and btw its someone standing in for Stephen Nolan - as a few of you dont like the boy from the North.

Monday, December 28, 2009 10:13AM Report Comment

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3. techieman said...

Hi TC - hope Christmas was (is) good for you and yours. How is yr mate bearing up?

I think its a real shame that when he said "time to buy" on here (meaning shares) he didn't expand that to include the increase in property values. Had he - he would have been catapulted to Guru status.

To be fair he never mentions that he put out a buy signal quite near (but not quite as near as yours truly ;-)) to the bottom in march.

Monday, December 28, 2009 11:23AM Report Comment

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5. techieman said...

TC - i too feel saddened that its "not the same as it once was". I think the more extreme posters used to be drowned out by those that remained on topic, but i think with less happening in the HPC arena there is an increase in confidence of those posters.

Hence my Charlie Sheen post. The "discussion" with Le Crunch i had the other day was just ridiculous (i probably fanned the flames a bit to be fair). But i wish we would get back to the main issues associated with this site HPC and some wider economic analysis, and that we could leave the "NWO" stuff to other sites which are set up for those. I miss S2R1s analysis because he is so impassioned, but really thats as far out as i would like to go.

Interesting times though. Good luck TC.

Monday, December 28, 2009 11:52AM Report Comment

6. jack c said...

Good to see you putting in an appearance TC - hope all is well and all the very best for 2010.

Monday, December 28, 2009 11:57AM Report Comment

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8. Deepdoubledip said...

The problem is that while Johnathan Davies analyses the facts logically based on economics, the government does exactly the opposite to keep the party going for a bit more

Monday, December 28, 2009 01:22PM Report Comment

9. markj69 str05 said...

There are many people out here, guys, who have no exposure to the financial industry, markets, construction, or property, other than in their own personal lives. We rely on the general media (Not bias and with no VI, i'm sure!), and of course all of your very valid interesting information.
Please keep posting. Even if we/I do not have any value to add to most posts, they are still very informative.

Season greetings to you all.

Monday, December 28, 2009 01:53PM Report Comment

10. Delarue said...

I agree that this site is not what it used to be ie. some really useful objective info and deep analysis of the HP situation as well as the economy.

This site seems to have been sabotaged and I admit I am a conspirasist who enjoyed str1 and P4c, malct posts. Shame the discussion/guess what the poster is saying, now seems to be slipping into the abyss instead of HPs.

Monday, December 28, 2009 02:36PM Report Comment

11. hpwatcher said...

The problem is that while Johnathan Davies analyses the facts logically based on economics, the government does exactly the opposite to keep the party going for a bit more

True, but it will catch up in the end.

Monday, December 28, 2009 04:02PM Report Comment

12. bidin'matime said...

I think the only point I'd pick JD up on there is the one about sentiment - it is a lot to do with sentiment - sentiment is a major part of the economic cycle. I agree he sounded a bit tired, but as the piece went out just before midnight, I expect anyone listening was a bit tired too, so maybe it was okay that he sounded a bit like he was on his second brandy after a good meal with friends..! I have a lot of respect for the guy.

On the broader issue of us HPCers facing yet another year ending with house prices up, when by now they should by all rights be plummeting, I think we just have to hang on to the basics - Brown / Darling have 'solved' the UK's financial problems by writing cheques on an empty account - the bank (aka overseas lender) is content to cash these cheques and keep running up an overdraft while GB/AD come up with a rescue plan, but as JD said, sooner or later they will want a better rate of return than 0.5%...

That rescue plan will have to include either higher taxes or lower gov't spending or (more likely) both - so even if rates remain the same, there will be less cash left in people's pockets to pay for housing. The problem we've had with cheap imports of goods (eg China ) and money (eg Japanese 'carry trade') is that the proportion of incomes available to spend on housing has risen, so house prices have risen accordingly - once that balance shifts the other way, even if rates were to stay low, house prices must fall.

TC said 'keep the faith' - I was telling someone the other day (close family member with multiple properties...) that I know what it must be like to be a Jehovah’s Witness - surrounded by non-believers who just can't see that, if only they took the action they need to, there is still time to save themselves..! Personally I don’t have any religious faith, but I’m starting to see how these people must feel!

TC, I read a while back that you weren’t well – I can only wish you all the best for 2010.


Monday, December 28, 2009 04:56PM Report Comment

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