Monday, Dec 28, 2009

I just don't buy it

The Observer: * Business * Green shoots Signs of hope for the economy in 2010

Despite the UK's lingering recession, there are reasons to believe the worst of the crisis is over

Posted by devo @ 11:21 AM (1254 views)
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1. devo said...

I found this comment (by GolemXIV) particularly interesting:

I obviously look at different signs to you lot.

For example I look at the fact that in the US housing market 1 in 10 Prime mortgages is now either behind or defaulted. That is Prime mortgages. New house sales fell 11 YoY. That's lower than all the experts had 'predicted'.

The US government has just allowed Fannie and Feddie to increase their debt levels. They had both been capped at $200B. That cap has been removed so they can cope with 2010.

I look also at Japan. The new Japanese government has announced a £630B Pound budget spending spree bringing Japanese debt to GDP ration to 195%!!

Expect the ratings agencies to start making noises about this. WHat happens when the second largest economy starts down the road to down grades on its debt?

I also look at Israel, Canada and Australia. What do these three have in common? Insane public debt levels - Australians now owe more that 100 of GDP. Each of them owes over $70K. Debt on mortgages, credit cards and loans stands at $1.2 Trillion and is up 71% in only 5 years. Israel is in similar trouble. They have a very nasty housing bubble. And so does Canada. One that will burst fairly soon.

Off shore bankers I hear from talk openly of double and triple dips and laugh at the prattle of our political leaders as so much catnip for the masses.

Looking at signs of recovery in the UK is like looking at one little part of you body, not finding a spots just there and concluding you are recovered, ignoring the pustules spreading all over your back.

All of these are just the few I picked out to be festive. I didn't even mention that my suspicions about US and UK sovereign debt sales as being rigged seem to be gathering evidence. I have been saying for a while that the figures of claimed sales make no sense given that I can find no buyers. Recent figures form the US Treasury itself seem to show a $500B unaccounted for. This on top of an earlier $200B.

2009 has been the year of monumental financial lies and equally monumental public debt. 2010 might be the year the lies turn on their creators.

Monday, December 28, 2009 11:24AM Report Comment
 

2. mr g said...

"Looking at signs of recovery in the UK is like looking at one little part of you body, not finding a spots just there and concluding you are recovered, ignoring the pustules spreading all over your back."

An excellent analogy, Devo!

Monday, December 28, 2009 04:09PM Report Comment
 

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