Thursday, Dec 17, 2009

Forecasters scratching ytheir heads again

Bloomberg: U.K. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Dropped in November

U.K. retail sales unexpectedly fell in November for the first time in six months as the recession prompted consumers to spend less at clothing and department stores in the approach to Christmas. Sales dropped 0.3 percent on the month after rising 0.6 percent in October, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median forecast was for a 0.5 percent gain, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 28 economists. The U.K. faces a “bumpy and uneven” path out of recession as unemployment keeps increasing..........

Posted by jack c @ 12:16 PM (1509 views)
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1. need-a-crash said...

Can't say it's that much of a surprise to me!

Thursday, December 17, 2009 12:19PM Report Comment

2. dill said...

"Can't say it's that much of a surprise to me!"

Ditto. Seems logical that many will wait for December discount period, and combine that with bringing forward some purchases to beat the VAT increase (which may go still higher later on next year).

Thursday, December 17, 2009 12:30PM Report Comment

3. fallingbuzzard said...

Forecasters don't walk down the High Street.

Thursday, December 17, 2009 12:32PM Report Comment

4. Alfie said...

They should try forecasting the weather, they will probably get more accurate results.

Thursday, December 17, 2009 12:39PM Report Comment

5. jack c said...

Stock and currency markets are reacting to these figures

A shock fall in retail sales sent the pound spiralling down mid-morning, as investors fretted once more about the health of the UK and questioned just how likely it is that consumers can help drag the country out of recession. Sliding to its lowest level for two months, the pound hit a low of $1.611 - shedding over 2 cents or near 1.5% having opened at $1.633. Having moved lower initially after a show of strength from the dollar, falls were exacerbated by news that shoppers cut back on spending unexpectedly in November.

Full story @

Thursday, December 17, 2009 01:08PM Report Comment

6. hpwatcher said...

Looks like people don't want Labour's wasteful stimulus


Thursday, December 17, 2009 01:09PM Report Comment

7. drewster said...

It's a surprise to me. Last weekend in town I couldn't move, such was the throng of shoppers. Also John Lewis announced that they'd had record sales last week. This is what happens when most people's mortgage interest payments fall to zero - they suddenly have £500 a month to splash on tat.

I suspect December's figures will look rosier than November's.

Thursday, December 17, 2009 01:35PM Report Comment

8. paranoia blue said...

drewster @7
Trouble is, mate, lots of really big-hitters have a lot more than £500, less every month, because of the “daylight-robbery” interest rates!

Thursday, December 17, 2009 03:37PM Report Comment

9. Martyk said...

If you put 20,000 volts through a dead cat, it will twitch. Doesn't mean that its back to life again though does it. Put a few £billion back into a moribund economy like ours, same thing. This government throws money around like its going out of fashion. God help us when they switch off the QE tap!

Thursday, December 17, 2009 07:57PM Report Comment

10. techieman said...

jack @5 - actually probably more greenback strength then pound weakness. Euro extended a 3 day losing run v the pound.

Thursday, December 17, 2009 09:29PM Report Comment

11. Neil B said...

Easy journalism - Take the following sentances and replace the ****** by the word "Unexpectedly"

House prices ******* rose for a third month.

Interest rates ******* remained low for a.....

Property sales remained ****** at their lowest level for.....

Unemployment ******* rose for the.....

GDP ******* dropped for the.....

The goverment ****** borrowed more money for the......

The government ***** extended QE for the......

(none of these headlines seem to be 'unexpected' apart from journos and analysts)

Friday, December 18, 2009 09:00AM Report Comment

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