Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The Mortgage Market is not about to Improve

The Council of Mortgage Lenders predicts gloomy future for mortgage borrowers

Great article shame the press didn't run it instead of RAMPING HPI .....Nothing new but good to see it in print "Lenders, as a whole, do not have enough funding for mortgages to help promote the economic activity that will help lift the UK out of recession.....Mortgage costs have risen, and will remain higher than before the credit crunch. And with higher taxes coming through from 2010 onwards, and higher interest rates in due course, consumers’ capacity to borrow will be further constrained. ....." etc etc Certainly NOT BULLISH

Posted by sybil13 @ 02:49 PM (1948 views)
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13 thoughts on “The Mortgage Market is not about to Improve

  • mark wadsworth says:

    Good stuff, but why is there this general perception that mortgage lending stimulates the economy? All it does is mean that more borrowers are paying more interest to more depositors.

    If the depositors are from abroad, then interest payments are going abroad, which reduces the money we can spend.

    If it is all domestic, then it’s a break even at best, and probably mildly negative (more people working in banks shuffling paper etc).

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  • I cant get the link to work

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Twice AAARGH.

    Try this http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/6542210/The-Council-of-Mortgage-Lenders-predicts-gloomy-future-for-mortgage-borrowers.html.

    I missed off the http bit first time and the admin password second time. Third time lucky?

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  • Thanks MW – I’ll now take a look.

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  • mark wadsworth said…Good stuff, but why is there this general perception that mortgage lending stimulates the economy?

    Good question, and I think the key to our current problem. Cheap finance fuelled the houseprice boom which enabled MEW. I would say this fuels spending rather than fuelling the economy, the difference being sustainability.

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  • A rather realistic assement of things as they stand at the moment – as for mortgage lending helping promote the economic activity that will help lift the UK out of recession – I interpret this as a fall back to days gone by when people used their house as a salary subsidy (ATM machine) which fuelled spending in the high st. From memory the US and UK economy is roughly 70% reliant upon spending in the high st so if we cant get back to where we were the UK will need to re-invent itself. This ties in nicely (IMO) with an article I posted this morning from the FT – here is a relevant extract

    “The western economies will need to reduce the levels of wanton consumerism of years that helped build up the high levels of debt. We are not about to enter a period of austerity but there will be more frugality. Consumers will buy less frivolously than they have done. There will be more of a ‘back to basics’ approach and sectors likely to deliver good returns for investors over the next few years include technology, mining, energy, food and agriculture, commodities and possibly transportation.

    The UK will also have to reinvent its economy. It relies heavily on imports and will have to develop new industries producing goods and services that it can export. Quite possibly it will even revive old ones such as manufacturing if sterling falls so far that it becomes cheaper to produce our own goods once again.

    But one thing is certain – the banks must be broken up into smaller pieces. No bank should become too big to be allowed to fail. Banks should be allowed to go bust at any time without fear of the major crisis we have seen over the last two years.”

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  • Timmy, yeah, increased velocity. Guess it would also show banks are lending again, improving sentiment.

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  • Ya see…bad news is everywhere – and the truth can’t be suppressed forever. HPCers will be vindicated!!

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  • @ Magnaman, I’m clinging to the hope!!!!

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  • Global Confidence Dips as Policy Makers Begin Exit Strategies:
    here

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  • tenyearstogetmymoneyback says:

    Completely agree with Marks 2nd comment in post 1. I can remember reading some economics
    article which said that at the end of the day the balance of payments has to balance. The timeframe
    might be decades but over some period things will have tto balance.

    Thought the point in the article

    * The development of innovative products capable of delivering real consumer benefits is being constrained. This has removed a traditional advantage for UK customers compared to borrowers in other countries, namely, widespread access to a variety of products tailored to their needs at different stages in life.

    was rather ironic. Northern Rocks Together Mortgage was possibly the most innovative product ever to hit the UK high street.

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