Friday, Nov 13, 2009

Reality kicks in

Thisismoney: Property market 'wobbles' as asking prices fall

Asking prices for properties went into reverse after seven months of rises, according to one of the UK's largest property websites. More than £1,000 was knocked off marketing prices in just one month, according to The company said it was 'the first sign that the housing market recovery could be starting to wobble'.

Posted by houses_burning @ 10:46 AM (2527 views)
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1. estrader said...

This is the hallmark of the top of the "back to normal phase" of the curve. It certaily would be if we are talking about the stock market, but this is property...can things really be so different? Maybe the last of the cash buyers are now gone, bank of mum & dad depleted, those holding out in hope of higher prices may now be feeling the pressure, the euphoria will soon become hope, then fear...then...

Just my humble opinion...

Friday, November 13, 2009 11:27AM Report Comment

2. smugdog said...

Ah, the bubble graph is back on path!

Friday, November 13, 2009 11:31AM Report Comment

3. cat and canary said...

smugdog said..."Ah, the bubble graph is back on path!"...maybe

...and we'll be back on path too! ..we'll hopefully have something to talk about soon!

Its been a boring 6 months, waiting for the bulls to finish! Endless debating of side issues, politics, economic power, inequality etc.

Whatever happened to good old-fashioned debates like "when to buy" and "how far will they drop" and "stuart law's dodgy predictions?!"

Friday, November 13, 2009 11:39AM Report Comment

4. estrader said...

If you have studied the stock market and the relationship between Price and Volume to the depth I have you would understand that the graph is more than just a pretty wavy line. But as I say, do your own research.

Friday, November 13, 2009 11:56AM Report Comment

5. Neilb said...

Am I the only person that doesnt see the relevance of these 'predictions' for house prices? More importantly; the market is dead because there is no credit available anymore and it isnt coming back. The only sales that are taking place are the usual background noise. There is only one way to go for house prices and you dont have to follow any trend graphs or be the next mistic Meg to work that out.

Friday, November 13, 2009 12:01PM Report Comment

6. timmy t said...

smugdog said...Ah, the bubble graph is back on path!

Joking aside smugdog, what is your prediction for house prices in 2010?

Friday, November 13, 2009 12:11PM Report Comment

7. Peter said...

Looking at the way in which jobs are being lost, and so many people are poorer than they were in 2007, property values are bound to fall sooner or later. Because there is nothing to hold them up.

Government will be able to delay the collapse of the bubble through money printing for a while, but in the end it will not be able to buck the market.

In fact, by distorting the economy through measures such as scrapping perfectly serviceable cars, government action is ensuring that the final correction will be deeper than it otherwise would have been.

Of course it is annoying watching this long drawn out and destructive process. If the economy had been alllowed to recover naturally we could have been well into the recovery phase by now, with all sorts of unsound businesses having been cleared away, rather than being left standing as zombies.

No one remembers the 1921 slump in America, as the government just let things take their course and business quickly recovered.

Friday, November 13, 2009 12:16PM Report Comment

8. smugdog said...

No idea!, a better guess I suppose than the majority of predictions on this site from one year ago, whatever graph or chart one pays homage to. Just be prepared to alter your strategy to suit. You cannot second guess what lengths our leaders will go to in vote winning.

Friday, November 13, 2009 12:33PM Report Comment

9. Wave Goodby said...

smugdog the leaders have given all they can give. and some?life support will be turned off very soon.the propped up market wii take its natural path without all that tweeking and stuff.

Friday, November 13, 2009 01:01PM Report Comment

10. will said...

no - everything is just fine....

Friday, November 13, 2009 02:07PM Report Comment

11. mander said...

Very unlikely for a property company to report changes in a honest way. Let's imagine the property market without QE. Soon!

Friday, November 13, 2009 02:38PM Report Comment

12. estrader said...

@6 I never make guesses when trading, one simply cannot afford to take guesses. However, if I was to apply my understanding of trading, which has come after 1000's of hours of studying and practice (and $1000's in gains and losses) over the best part of the last 5 years I would go short on property now. That is to say that all the conditions are met for a fall not a rise in prices. However, I do not speculate on property, trading a futures contract is very different because you can cut losses early if you have made an error in judgement. If property was traded on an exchange I would be able to make a better judgement so there is a lack of transparency and I must rely on what the media says is happening. But when I keep hearing that prices are rising on thin volume that is an absolute danger sign that prices will fall soon, not rise. This ignores all government intervention and media spin, guesses, opinions etc. Rising prices on Low volume is a warning sign that prices will fall. That is all I have to say.

Friday, November 13, 2009 02:50PM Report Comment

13. smugdog said...

Estrader @ 9, I listen to all sensible view points and your's make sensible reading.

Friday, November 13, 2009 05:16PM Report Comment

14. Swissnic said...

I read a comment yesterday from a chap who is deployed by lenders to advise mortgagees in arrears. He said he was being sent to visit people with 12 months of arrears - something that usually would have been repo'd months before. His feeling was the banks had been instructed to hold off on Repo's until after the election, when all hell was going to break loose.

This feels exactly like something our current administration would do!

My personal feeling is the foundations of the housing market no longer exist, and the whole things is being propped up on 1000's of matchsticks. The election will be the catalyst for the initiation of the clean sweep our economy needs. 2010 Q3/4 is going to free-fall with a bottom around the 3.5x avergae salary mark - depending on the state of the mortgage market. Assuming the banks want to sell the 1000's of reposesed homes, I guess they will have to start lending again...

I have been wiating to buy a home since 2005 when I returned to the UK from spending 5 years in Switzerland. I refuse to buy in this insanely overpriced market, and I assume there are many people like me out there. I will start looking when prices hit 3.5x average salary (either through wage inflation, or property collapse), and not sooner! If this doesn't happen, I happy renting my 3 bed victorian semi for a pittance! ;o)

Friday, November 13, 2009 05:22PM Report Comment

15. Mr G said...

Timmy T @5 said "Joking aside smugdog, what is your prediction for house prices in 2010?"

Smugdog @6 "No idea!"

Gentlemen, look no further than!

They can obviously read the future as Findaproperty's survey said "Asking prices fell 0.5% in November, the first decline since March" and we're only at November 13th.

Friday, November 13, 2009 07:14PM Report Comment

16. mr g said...

Timmy T @ 5 "Joking aside smugdog, what is your prediction for house prices in 2010?"
Smugdog @6 "No idea!"

Look no further than!

They can obviously read the future as their survey said "Asking prices fell 0.5% in November, the first decline since March" and it's only November 13th today.

Friday, November 13, 2009 07:18PM Report Comment

17. amjidk said...

the crash will probably resume (after the bull trap phase) after the may elections...

Friday, November 13, 2009 09:33PM Report Comment

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