Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009

Place your bets.

8 Comments

1. little professor said...

Summary:

Savilles: -6%
Ernst & Young ITEM Club: -5%
Nationwide: 0%
Zoopla: +2 to 3%
Citi: +5 to 10%

Wot, no Assetzzzz?

Wednesday, November 18, 2009 01:33PM Report Comment
 

2. mark wadsworth said...

Me - down 40% from 2007 peak, on average, some time in next two or three years. Or maybe prices will just drift imperceptibly down for a decade or more, like in Japan recently, or in the UK between the two world wars.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009 02:26PM Report Comment
 

3. buctootim said...

Depends entirely on interest rates and lending criteria. A £1million interest only mortage at 1% over base would only cost £1250pm. A lot of people would go for that if banks get stupid enough to lend at those rates again. Conversely if they get even meaner £1250 pm would only get you £190,000 on a 7.5% repayment basis.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009 02:57PM Report Comment
 

4. cynicalsoothsayer said...

The average house price in Edinburgh is more than your £190,000 example, but most of the people can't afford £1250 pm. So people are either going to get huge pay rises or house prices are going to drop. I hear stories from friends of some who are under severe financial stress even at these low interest rates, so guess what will happen when interest rates rise?

Wednesday, November 18, 2009 03:09PM Report Comment
 

5. jack c said...

LP - Stuatz did write a rather length piece in the FT on 31/10/2009 nothing new in his overall view which is as per his latest blog - Chief Executive's blog on property investment - Shortage of Housing Is Certain to Get Worse and Will Drive House Prices up Further
9 November 2009

Wednesday, November 18, 2009 03:10PM Report Comment
 

6. britishblue said...

Buctootim @3. Its also whether people are stupid enough to to go for a 1 over base on a temporary interest rate. If you take out a 25 year mortage you have to look at the long term averages which are over 5%. This is basic economics. Slightly more advanced economics may say with the UK debt situation and banks needed to rebalance balance sheets, the average interest rates may be higher over the next 25 years than the previous 25 years. Why are people so short termist? It mazes me.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009 04:13PM Report Comment
 

7. buctootim said...

Britishblue@6. The cheap debt driven boom of the last 10 years shows there are always people who will overborrow to buy into the 'dream'. £1m for only £1250 a month? Loads of people will think they'd be able to generate a return on capital far in excess of the interest payments.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009 04:34PM Report Comment
 

8. mander said...

Down 30-40 % is still on cards only if the tax payer will not be forced to take of the risk and replace the derivatives (toxic assests) and also devaluation of the pound did not bring enough investors to prop up the housing market.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009 05:46PM Report Comment
 

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