Wednesday, November 11, 2009

“Lending to home buyers may have reached a plateau”

Home loans level off, lenders say

The recent rise in mortgage lending to house buyers has levelled off, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) says. In September, 51,000 mortgages were agreed for house purchase, up from 50,000 in August but lower than the 53,000 recorded in July. "Although the recent bounce-back in house purchase activity is holding up, we remain some way below what might be called 'normal' levels of transactions," said CML economist Paul Samter. The UK property market has staged a recovery since the spring with sales and prices picking up again after the dramatic slump caused by the credit crisis.

Posted by jack c @ 10:24 AM (1336 views)
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20 thoughts on ““Lending to home buyers may have reached a plateau”

  • mark wadsworth says:

    Don’t worry chaps! They* have a plan – bail out banks time and time again and force them to lend, keep interest rates at 0.5% for ever, subsidise mortgage payments and make it impossible to repossess, extend Stamp Duty holiday, freeze or cut Council Tax, subsidies for FTBs, shared ownership schemes to suck people in who would otherwise rent, an end to to new development, subsidise old age care so that no house needs to be sold a minute earlier than necessary, lift the IHT threshhold so that no house needs to be sold to pay the IHT bill … (cont. page 94)

    Whatever it takes!

    * I refer to both the Blue Wing and the Red Wing of the Home-Owner-Ist Party.

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  • What does this mean?

    What does anything mean anymore?

    I am so confused.

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  • No s**t sherlock!! There remains hundreds of thousands in negative equity, despite the increases over the preceding six months. In any market, there are only a limited number of buyers and sellers at any one time and that period has just come to an end. 7’500 jobs have been lost in the last 24 hours (Lloyds, Ericsson etc.)…and it ain’t over yet! And what about all those who have had there hours or salaries cut? I have three friends in just that boat. If house prices are increasing, wages are not keeping up as they didn’t during the boom years hence 6, 7, 8 , 9 and even 10 times income multipliers had to be applied by lenders in order for borrowers to borrow. How many were “liar loans?”, how many were 125% LTV?

    Over the last couple of days I have read on HPC some very bullish comments although I suspect this is borne out of despair. Yes, I too am frustrated, baffled and angry that prices have not adjusted sufficiently so that people can buy a home of their own. Patience is a virtue and the first quarter of next year will, IMHO see the beginning of the end of crazy rises, continued unemployment and sadly, many, many more company insolvencies, especially retailers…..YIPEE!!, needed to get that off my chest and boy do I feel better!!

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  • “The UK property market has staged a recovery since the spring with sales and prices picking up again after the dramatic slump caused by the credit crisis.”

    Should read “The UK property market has staged a recovery since the spring with sales and prices picking up again after the dramatic slump caused by the fact that houses had reached frigin ludicrous levels.”

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  • Timmy t – that’s more like it! a bit more truth and reality, love it. PMT is not for the inclusive use of our woman brethren you know, I always suggest to Mrs Magna (Wo) Man that it means P ositive M ental Thinking….I have the scares to prove it too!!

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  • My prediction is of a house price low in 2015, followed by a slow recovery. See the chart on this site. The vested interested parties in the mean time will attempt to ramp up some sort of stabilization on the way to the bottom.

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  • cat and canary says:

    “BBC: Home loans level off, lenders say”

    super news!

    Cash-rich wavering bears all sucked in?

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    C&C, don’t you mean “Cash-rich wavering bulls all sucked in”?

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  • cat and canary says:

    Doh! I do, cheers for noticing that Mark,

    The recent press releases that house prices are/soon be up on a year earlier make it look like we are just about in the “back to normal” phase on the typicaly bubble lifecycle.

    Downward pressures are building and outweighing the upside now
    🙂

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  • Full steam ahead to get the party going again

    EXPO 2009: More securitisations are imminent
    11 November 2009 | By Natalie Martin

    The securitisation market is starting to open up again with numerous banks and smaller building societies set to bring securitisations to the market, audiences were told at the IMLA Theatre at the Mortgage Business Expo.Lloyds Banking Group completed a £4bn securitisation in September and Nationwide completed a £3.5bn securitisation at the end of October, which many interpreted as a sign that the securitisation market was finally thawing. And Paul Howard, head of corporate accounts at Nationwide, says that more are set to come to market.

    Full story @
    http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/expo-2009-more-securitisations-are-imminent/1001991.article

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  • brownsters_billions says:

    Is it possible a series of mini booms and busts could be engineered for long enough to keep house prices nominally similar, but in the longer term reduced in ‘real’ terms to acceptable levels?

    It seems like we need a crash now of fairly big proportions just to wash off the upside of the last 6 months?

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  • cat and canary says:

    bronwster_billions,

    I guess you could engineer more booms, unless of course the rating agencies said yesterday “If there was another significant fiscal stimulus package in the UK, then UK rating would be at risk.”

    plus you would have to delay spending cuts and let the debt/interest keep piling up.

    and you’d have to do something about all those poor folks losing their jobs.

    ~£185K at peak, down to ~£150 then back up to ~£160K, still down £25K with downside pressure.

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  • In the near term, everything looks fantastic…..not so sure about the long term.

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  • brownsters_billions says:

    c&c,

    I certainly don’t disagree that there are significant challenges ahead. I guess the point I was making is that we need a 10% crash now to see prices only 4% down on their lowest point.

    Whilst this is of course exceedingly possible, I then think there’ll be more upward pressure from ‘pent-up’ demand, whilst more homeowners are scared off from selling their homes.

    I accept that many things can change that i.e. large increases in interest rates, although this seems unlikely in the near term. The more it pumps up again in the short term, the further it has to fall in the long term, reducing the likelihood of said falls.

    Personally I think we will see another 10% off by this time next year, with a bumbling along the bottom for another 4-5.

    Either that or we’ll all be frazzled by solar radiation in 2012…

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  • Magnaman @ 2 & 4, are you on mushrooms?, wow man!

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  • Number10.gov.uk – We received a petition with 72,233 signatures asking “We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to resign.”

    the Government’s response – The Prime Minister is completely focused on restoring the economy, getting people back to work and improving standards in public services. As the Prime Minister has consistently said, he is determined to build a stronger, fairer, better Britain for all.

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  • the Government’s response – The Prime Minister is completely focused on restoring the economy, getting people back to work and improving standards in public services. As the Prime Minister has consistently said, he is determined to build a stronger, fairer, better Britain for all.

    Funny, but who want’s him?

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  • if that’s what he really wants why isn’t he dead yet?

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  • Just to make my post @ Wednesday, November 11, 2009 01:56PM clear this is an official No 10 response available for all to see on the Downing st website. Anyway I knew when I received the e-mail with the response it wasnt really from him (didnt have any spelling mistakes in it)

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  • Yeah I was disgusted with the PMs response to the petition.
    If the PM really wants a fairer Britain he could stop stealing our bank interest and mortgaging our children’s future with his reckless borrowing to prop up greedy reckless banks and overindebted home “owners”.

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