Sunday, Nov 15, 2009

Is the Dollar Carry Trade a Black Swan or a Red Herring?

Businessinsider.com: Roubini Is Wrong About The Giant Dollar Carry Trade Going Bust

This is lifted from a hedge fund traders blog, arguing that credit conditions are too tight for the dollar carry trade to pose a true threat to the market as a whole. "When the current trends reverse, there will be much volatility, pain, hand wringing, and gnashing of teeth, for sure. But it is much more likely that we are going to die from ice, not fire, and of boredom, not from cardiac arrest." Personally I think he's wrong, but then I also have an irrational love of disaster scenarios, and let's face it. Roubini has predicted ten of the last three recessions. So maybe he's right.

Posted by tpbeta @ 10:38 PM (534 views)
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