Monday, Nov 16, 2009

I'd rather have a bowl of CoCo Pops

Times: UK recession is over, says MPC man Andrew Sentance

A member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee said last night that the economy had emerged from recession during July-September, meanwhile Paul Tucker, the Bank of England’s Deputy Governor for Financial Stability urged investors to consider purchasing contingent convertibles, or so-called CoCos, the newly created form of hybrid debt that converts into shares if a bank runs into trouble.

Posted by enuii @ 11:38 PM (1733 views)
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1. Mr Plumbase said...

Would that be the BS economy of banking, stocks and shares and other assorted fluff, or the real economy, you know the one with rising unemployment and wage cuts?

Monday, November 16, 2009 11:50PM Report Comment

2. symo said...

"No it's not" says HPC man Symo.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 08:26AM Report Comment

3. will said...

The QE has been mainly thrown at the financial markets which are one of the main drivers behind our economy. When this stops things may change. As for the rest of us, we will now have to pay back the QE and so the consumers will hurt for many years to come. Thank the banks for their influence over our politicians.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 08:52AM Report Comment

4. smugdog said...

HPC’s will hate the thought of the end of this recession. They are programmed to believe that a continued recession will maintain their hope of collapse in house prices, and that god forbid; any positive news on the economy will mean an end to any lingering hope. Indeed, they are probably correct.

But there IS help:

“In terms of treatment, a pessimist suffers from a habit of thinking negatively that can be willfully changed through treatments like psychotherapy. Virtually anyone who nurtures a habitually negative temperament can transform from a pessimist to a more positive person with time and effort.

Whether or not a link does exist between pessimism and ill health, it has become widely accepted that a positive attitude is certainly helpful in life. If being a pessimist doesn't shorten life, being an optimist will make it more enjoyable.”

So come on Jack C and all, look on the positive side, you don’t really need to know who or what I am to attempt to blow away the dark clouds.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 09:20AM Report Comment

5. letsgetreadytotumble said...

Hey smuggers , old bean, it's not pessimism, it's mathematical and logical analysis and formulating realistic conclusions. We just refuse to be manipulated like the rest of the sheeple.
When prices drop another 40%, it won't be illusion bought on by pessimism, it will be reality.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 09:34AM Report Comment

6. will said...


We may be out of recession due to the massive stimulus thrown at the financial sector, but that has done nothing to help the millions of people who borrowed at the top of the market with silly mortgages. The QE used to pull us out of recession will need to be paid back. This will mean higher taxes for most people in the UK, further un-employment and from early 2010, higher interest rates. The FSA plans to limit mortgage borrowing by outlining deposits required and maybe banning interest only mortgages. For decades the banks would only lend on a three times earnings basis for good reason - because the borrower had some chance of repaying his debt.

Where I live one would need 15 times earnings. If we are now to believe that this is the new norm, we should worry that many youngsters will not be able to get onto the housing ladder - as is clearly happening now. If so who will you sell your houses to? I sold about three years ago and can assure you that many houses marketed when I sold are still being advertised. If that makes this a healthy housing market then I will be happy to continue renting.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 09:44AM Report Comment

7. smugdog said...

Letsgetready, I should have added delusion to your list of ailments.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 10:03AM Report Comment

8. Cheekie Charlie said...

Smug dog I remain positive that house prices will return to historic averages and people will be suffer for their greed and financial recklessness.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 10:40AM Report Comment

9. cynicalsoothsayer said...


Optimism bias - systematic tendency for people to be over-optimistic

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 11:10AM Report Comment

10. mark wadsworth said...

Those CoCo's are an excellent idea, actually, it's like a rolling debt-for-equity swap.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 12:13PM Report Comment

11. paul said...

Ummm, yeah well anyway, getting back to the article. Isn't converting an investment into bank shares when the bank's in trouble a bit like building a paper shelter in a forest fire?

Or maybe I just don't geddit.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 12:17PM Report Comment

12. need-a-crash said...


Is it optimistic to wish to be priced out of housing?

This site is not about schadenfraude as a certain TV Property show host referred to us as, it's about looking forward to the day when people under the age of 35 can buy a place to live and raise a family... now that is something optimistic to look forward to isn't it?

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 12:18PM Report Comment

13. smugdog said...

@11 We need not fool ourselves, the majority on this site are not FTB's. The majority are seasoned STR's in the hope of a future killing. Bad call so far!

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 12:40PM Report Comment

14. Lampkin said...


I'd be suprised if there hasn't been a poll on it, I reckon most here are FTBs (I am).

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 12:58PM Report Comment

15. Goldenbrowne said...

smugdog @12...

I'm a FTB. I am not a pessimist, I am an optimist.

Optimistic that house prices will crash further.

Optimistic that my 8 years studying and training to become a proffessional will actually help me live a comfortable life.

Optimistic that one day, all my hard work will lead to me being able to afford a decent house near where I grew up, near my family.

Optimistic that 4 years of scrimping and scraping and saving for a deposit without the help or presence of well-off parents will be worthwhile.

Optimistic that this Government won't continue to rape me of all my hard work to bail out the feckless.

If I was being pessimistic, I would agree with your predictions and consequently start making arrangements to leave this joke of a country and take my skills somewhere that rewards intelligence and hard work rather than idiocy and gambling.

I don't quite think anyone realises the bitterness and resentment that has built up inside those of my generation and those after us and how it will continue if our interests continue to be pushed aside in favour of the fortunate generations before us. We are not all stupid and we won't put up with it for too much longer.

However, as I have said; I'm optimistic.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 01:31PM Report Comment

16. Markw said...

Smug Dog I'm a first time buyer, 33 yrs old on a reasonable wage (with a reasonable deposit), working wife and 9 month old son, yet cannot buy in my area. Does this make me delusional?

I'm sick of Brown and this crew!

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 01:34PM Report Comment

17. Fuchsia said...

Smugdog: has there been a survey or discussion on the forums to back up that fact? Also, surely a reasonable number of STRs are old enough to have a VI in ensuring that their children will be able to afford to buy a place too, so they'd kinda indirectly fall into both categories?

I can't help thinking that FTBs are also probably less likely to be posting and more likely to be lurking. Personally speaking as a lurker until now, I'm young enough not to remember the last crashes, so I feel that anything I come up with is more likely to be inaccurate than someone who's had previous experience of economic turbulence. People like me could make up a large part of the demographic of the site without being visibly here, IYSWIM.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 02:17PM Report Comment

18. Tea Drinker said...


I'm an under 35, but I wouldn't class myself as a FTB.
Most people I know at this age are either waiting or are stupidly in debt. That does discount the people who have moved away from London to cheaper cities.
Personally, I'm planning on moving to a more scandinavian country where the market isn't as insane.

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"
- Keynes

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 02:58PM Report Comment

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