Tuesday, Nov 03, 2009

Halifax latest

BBC: House prices 'rise another 1.2%'

UK house prices rose by another 1.2% in October, which was the fourth monthly increase in a row according to the Halifax. The bank said that at £165,528 the average price of a UK house was still 4.7% lower than a year ago. Since the spring house prices have been recovering from the sudden slump caused by the international credit crisis. The Halifax said prices were rising because of a combination of increased demand and fewer houses for sale.

Posted by jack c @ 01:21 PM (3562 views)
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27 Comments

1. shining wit said...

Cheif economist for the Halifax, Sheamlus Ramping said, "House prices were rising because of a combination of increasingly selective discrimination of buyers to ensure a fat price rise and government fiddling and market manipulation"

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 01:27PM Report Comment
 

2. Anne_uumellmahaye said...

Shortest bbc-house-price-increase article ever.
Are the beeb even getting bored of reporting HPI???

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 01:30PM Report Comment
 

3. phdinbubbles said...

It's only confirming what we already knew from the Nationwide figures (seeing as the Halifax seems to be a bit behind Nationwide's measure of the bounce). I have every sympathy for anyone buying a house to live in at the moment and absolutely none for anyone buying as an investment opportunity. I look forward to seeing them burn.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 01:48PM Report Comment
 

4. need-a-crash said...

I seem to remember numerous people on this site saying that the time to buy would be "when the year-on-year % goes +ve" so I guess the time to buy really is now!!

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 01:49PM Report Comment
 

5. mark wadsworth said...

I'm one of the people who says what Need-A-Crash says people were saying.

Time for a change in strategy. However, I covered my **** by signing up a tenancy agreement until next June so that's bought me an extra 8 months breathing space from Her With The Nesting Instinct. Round my way, prices are drifting down slowly but surely, maybe five or ten per cent a year, but even five per cent off a house round here is still twice as much as what we pay each year in rent.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 02:22PM Report Comment
 

6. timmy t said...

MW - I signed up til March next year thinking that would be enough time for all this to be over but looks like I was being optimistic (I certainly never anticipated this level of goverment intervention in the crash). Round my way (West of London) nothing is moving. It's hard to say what's happening to prices when nothing is selling. There are 3 houses on the market within half a mile of my rented house, all of which were on the market when we moved in late last year. It's getting boring!

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 03:04PM Report Comment
 

7. greenshootsandleaves said...

MW@4 'but even five per cent off a house round here is still twice as much as what we pay each year in rent'

Well, that's certainly one of the benefits of a high price:rent ratio (see yesterday's morningstar thread '8 reasons ...')!

Also: If you really did say what needacrash says you said, did you ever think, when you said it, that prices might be 'up' against a background of such a low volume of sales?

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 03:16PM Report Comment
 

8. Pyramid said...

Mark,@4 I have to revisit the same 'Her With the Nesting instinct' but with a bun in the oven! Thankfully she is now spitting in frustration in the estate agents window at the great con. 7 times my salary (20k) here on the isle of wight to buy a terrace, I have managed to convince her that taking on an unmanageable debt is for suckers, however I am worried Gordon & co are killing my savings with all the meddling. I have extended my crash forecast at least for another 2 years, unfortunatley.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 03:38PM Report Comment
 

9. crunchy said...

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

What will HPC do for colour and spice when Le Crunch is gone. : (

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 03:40PM Report Comment
 

10. chrisa said...

I would say that alot of people on here have seriously underestimated how totally corrupt and slimy the BoE/MPC and Broons goons really are. They will see the currency trashed before they allow house prices to correct naturally, and this is probably what will happen. The UK will tend towards hyperinflation. They cannot let house prices correct fully. To do so would reveal even to the most dimwitted the shocking state of the UK and how house price inflation has masked the truth from the masses.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 03:47PM Report Comment
 

11. growler said...

MW and Timmy T: I live in S Bucks and I also see a lot of places around for a long time, but also a lot of sale-agreed boards.

I think the local agents are back into the "Boom" mode when advising vendors on prices. Let's face it, you don't need a lot of evidence to get an estate agent signing from the rooftops on "boom, boom boom" (or anything for that matter), so I'm not surprised.

I don't see a plan by the UK government. We're driving blind. The housing market is being sucked up in an asset price boom - but only for those in a position to buy. These high-value sales are distorting the true market - and London is the best example of it. Take this distortion out, allow Sterling to appreciate and interest rates to rise and we MUST see a fall in the market. We've not even started the cuts of 2010 and the industrial action that is brewing. Wait till these kick in.... this is bound to influence buying interest.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 03:59PM Report Comment
 

12. timmy t said...

Chrisa - I seem to remember saying exactly the same thing as you posted @8 a few weeks ago and you shot me down - what's changed?

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 04:09PM Report Comment
 

13. mrmickey said...

I agree with Chrisa the government cannot allow house prices to fall much further as the banks balance sheets will look even worse than they are now if that's possible, I suppose the end result of this policy will indeed be hyper inflation.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 04:16PM Report Comment
 

14. crunchy said...

8. chrisa 10. timmy : )

It's spreading.

Good, I can take a well deserved long "holiday in the sun" soon! House price wave action indeed.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 04:21PM Report Comment
 

15. chrisa said...

10. timmy t said...
Chrisa - I seem to remember saying exactly the same thing as you posted @8 a few weeks ago and you shot me down - what's changed?

Timmy I took your comments at the time to be you acting as a MPC apologist. If I misinterpreted them and you have, like me, the belief that the BoE/MPC are totally corrupt I apologise.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 04:26PM Report Comment
 

16. timmy t said...

Chrisa - I do - apology accepted. See my post on another article earlier today.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 04:35PM Report Comment
 

17. chrisa said...

One thing's for sure this is not going to end well. The UK economy has been hollowed out by Globalisation, particularly over the last 15 years, and the shocking state of it has been hidden (to many) by creating a massive asset and consumption boom based on a debt explosion to create an illusion of growth. In addition the false times of 'prosperity' have enabled many social problems to worsen and be overlooked and the government to get away with illegal wars because the people were occupied with a rising house price mentality. Unless the insanity of rising house prices continues the people will see the truth plainly, and they won't like it.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 04:42PM Report Comment
 

18. Brownsters_billions said...

Most people will never see the truth plainly, and will go to their grave quite happily ignorant.

The only way people will 'see' the truth is when it's rubbed in their faces by events beyond manipulation. I'd suggest we've got one more boom over the next 18 years before resources are drained beyond all help, and the chinese take what they need and bugger the rest.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 04:54PM Report Comment
 

19. Happyrenting said...

MW@4 and timmy t @5 - on the subject of rental property, I have noticed over the past two to three weeks that less and less is being listed on Rightmove for my area (in and around Stockport and South Manchester). I check 5 or 6 postcodes on Rightmove every day and some days there is literally NOTHING. Does this tell us that those who would otherwise have become forced landlords are now jumping on board for the big boom (last sail of the Titanic)? Strange though because there isn't a great, daily surge in sales property on the site either...

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 05:03PM Report Comment
 

20. mark wadsworth said...

Chris A #15, you try explaining that to a Home-Owner-Ist!!

They will cheerfully agree on "consumption boom" and slag off those people who buy flat screen TVs or sofas on HP (and rail about the couple of thousand pounds they owe DFS or Dixons), but they will claim that their home is "an investment" and represents sensible and prudent planning for the future, capital growth etc etc. The fact that one man's "capital growth" is the next generation's crippling mortgage burden completely escapes them.

And the Home-Owner-Ists will rail about our economy being hollowed out, reckless borrowing by the government etc etc, placing a burden on future generations, without realising that from the future generations point of view, having to repay govt debts (spending which has largely benefitted this generation of Home-Owner-Ists) out of taxes is just as awful as having to take on vastly inflated debts to buy a house that might cost £80,000 to build.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 05:04PM Report Comment
 

21. cyril said...

@16 MW - your talking of intergenerational subsidy reminds me of pensions. The reason why pensions were invented was to give the government more control over public employees. Similar reasoning with houses. The govt likes to encourage home ownership because it thinks home owners are more sensible and stable than non-home-owners. But the nicely ordered world is gradually falling apart as more and more people have short term contracts, no pensions, no property etc. and this will come back and bite a future givernment at some point.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 06:10PM Report Comment
 

22. tenyearstogetmymoneyback said...

Chrisa said "They will see the currency trashed before they allow house prices to correct naturally"

I suspect that is the plan. As someone said a few weeks ago we might end up in the situation where
house prices have gone up another 50% but a gallon of petrol costs £100

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 06:43PM Report Comment
 

23. letthemfall said...

I doubt there is any long-term plan. Politics these days is about appealing to the voters and averting dramatic or catastrophic (in the present case) changes. The Govt has succeeded at the 2nd (so far anyway); as for the 1st, it depends on your circumstances.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 06:50PM Report Comment
 

24. peter_2008 said...

I am really scared. The whole country is piling in everything in property while the real economy is going down the drain. Engineering and Manufacture are the real backbone of this country. They are being shattered. Are we giving them a help hand? No. Are we lending to them? No. Lending to business is down, unemployment is up,

The government’s policy is like prescribing 5 portions of fiber a day to someone whose spine is shattered.” When the UK emerges from this recession, it will look exactly like a person without a backbone - a cripple.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 08:12PM Report Comment
 

25. Bond007 said...

I am watching this market as I am hoping to buy a house to live in. I noticed that the higher value properties are easier to sell at the moment, while the lower value ones used to depend on these 100% mortgages and therefore are much more difficult to sell now.

A single figure (average house price) is easy to monitor, but it is oversimplifying the complex market. A simplistic example of how it can be misleading, nothing to do with real life figures of course: before the crisis 50% of houses used to sell for £200K, and another 50% for £400K. So the average price used to be £300K. After the crisis the more expensive ones are selling at £350K, and the lower end of the market does not sell at all. The average house price is £350K and is up £50K! But that does not necessarily mean the market is growing.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 08:42PM Report Comment
 

26. Charlie White said...

This is beyond terrifying. The mania, short-sightedness, recklessness, greed, etc, etc, that caused the crash are happening all over again, not even a year later -- and this time with even greater speed & intensity. Have we got mass amnesia? We've become a one-item shop: house prices. Nothing else matters here. Just keep blowing the bubble bigger & bigger & bigger! Only this time paid for by OUR taxes. Yes, this time OUR taxes are funding the banksters' whopping bonuses so they can snap up 2, 3, 4 and more "properties" (not homes -- PROPERTIES). One very simple answer: tax 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc, PROPERTIES. Those who can afford investment properties or multiple "pied-a-terres" (which they use maybe a few weeks during any given year) can afford to pay a suitable tax for the privilege of depriving people of a HOME. Tax those PROPERTIES. Put the tax revenues into paying off the crazy debt, rebuilding the national infrastructure, the NHS, and creating affordable HOMES for human beings rather than PROPERTY PORTFOLIOS. The tax should apply to overseas "investors" as well as UK nationals. If it's your primary home, fine. If it's not your primary home, it gets taxed. A pied-a-terre is not your primary home. It's a business investment. It should therefore be taxed & treated as such.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 09:15PM Report Comment
 

27. Charlie White said...

This is beyond terrifying. The mania, short-sightedness, recklessness, greed, etc, etc, that caused the crash are happening all over again, not even a year later -- and this time with even greater speed & intensity. Have we got mass amnesia? We've become a one-item shop: house prices. Nothing else matters here. Just keep blowing the bubble bigger & bigger & bigger! Only this time paid for by OUR taxes. Yes, this time OUR taxes are funding the banksters' whopping bonuses so they can snap up 2, 3, 4 and more "properties" (not homes -- PROPERTIES). One very simple answer: tax 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc, PROPERTIES. Those who can afford investment properties or multiple "pied-a-terres" (which they use maybe a few weeks during any given year) can afford to pay a suitable tax for the privilege of depriving people of a HOME. Tax those PROPERTIES. Put the tax revenues into paying off the crazy debt, rebuilding the national infrastructure, the NHS, and creating affordable HOMES for human beings rather than PROPERTY PORTFOLIOS. The tax should apply to overseas "investors" as well as UK nationals. If it's your primary home, fine. If it's not your primary home, it gets taxed. A pied-a-terre is not your primary home. It's a business investment. It should therefore be taxed & treated as such.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 09:17PM Report Comment
 

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