Sunday, Nov 15, 2009

Expect 3 Months of Falls Before Pre - Election Jitters

Times Online: House prices slip as owners aim to sell by end of year

Worth considering previous RM quotes : August, "Future price and transaction growth is now controlled by the bottleneck of mortgage availability. This is unlikely to change for years to come". September, "Many aspiring sellers could face years trapped in their homes until values rise enough for them to join the equity-rich club, and even then they will be heavily dependent on the number of bottom of-the-chain first-time-buyers." October, "Finance greases the wheels of the property market, and it is anybody’s guess when we might see the necessary level of competitive funding return. Frustrated homehunters should note the expected ten year timetable to wind up Lehman Brothers, giving a clear indication of the time required to rebuild the banking system.” W SHAPED DO YOU THINK?

Posted by sybil13 @ 10:27 PM (2169 views)
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1. fallingbuzzard said...

Why do they embargo these things and then release them anyway? Either way, I take Rightmove HPI with a pinch of salt.

Sunday, November 15, 2009 10:47PM Report Comment

2. devo said...

Do Rightmove have to pay for these article/press releases?

If so, judging by the lack of conviction in this one, The Times had better source a new revenue stream.

Sunday, November 15, 2009 10:47PM Report Comment

3. devo said...

See flashman, I can do house prices!

Goddamit, I miss that guy.

Sunday, November 15, 2009 10:50PM Report Comment

4. techieman said...

Hi sybil.... I wondered if you saw the weekend FT on the Candy brothers and Chelski barracks? I thought you might have posted something on that.

Monday, November 16, 2009 08:32AM Report Comment

5. mark wadsworth said...

I think it's a tad unfair of us to celebrate is when RM says prices are falling but to ignore them when they say they are going up. But good stuff nonetheless.

@ Techie/Sybil, I have posted the FT story on the Candy Brothers.

Monday, November 16, 2009 09:57AM Report Comment

6. estrader said...

Well obviously all the pent-up demand prefers to eat Christmas pudding over buying a house they desperately need to put a roof over their head. The sellers, well for some strange reason they are desperate to get rid of their properties so they can perhaps afford to buy Christmas pudding? Don’t know.

Mark W,
I criticize them for the reasons they give, not the reports themselves. If there is a shortage of housing and pent-up demand and they are great value and a good inflation hedge then they should sell like hot cakes even at this time of year shouldn’t they?

IMHO- If people will wait until after Christmas, then they will wait until after the New Years Sales and by that time they will think it is worth waiting until after the Election. The pressure surely must be on the sellers now if the buyers can wait until they have digested Christmas pudding before buying while the sellers drop their prices...don’t they like Christmas pudding?

Monday, November 16, 2009 10:28AM Report Comment

7. stillthinking said...

This article fails to consider just how dire the UK economic situation is. How many people in Iceland think an article on local property valuations is a good read.

Monday, November 16, 2009 11:04AM Report Comment

8. tenant super said...

I agree it is unfair of us to celebrate is when RM says prices are falling but to ignore them when they say they are going up.

But I never ignore them as they are an important indicator of where the market psychology is. I also keep an eye on asking prices on and like the RM figures they are not an accurate reflection of selling prices yet they show the pattern of sentiment in the Irish market where the public has already begun entry into the 'capitulation' phase.

Monday, November 16, 2009 11:39AM Report Comment

9. Mark Wadsworth said...

My favourite bit from the article is this "Rightmove said that available property remained thin, with 89,140 new homes coming on to the market this month.."

Monthly sales at the top of the boom were about 80,000 a month (=about five per cent of housing stock, i.e. every house gets sold once every twenty years). So in those days, seeing as properties were shifting very quickly, the number of houses coming up for sale every month must have been ... er ... around 80,000.

Monday, November 16, 2009 12:58PM Report Comment

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