Wednesday, Nov 04, 2009

Denial Panic Depression

Marketoracle: Telegraph UK House Price 55% Crash Forecast Revisited

Not sure how he gets from £210000 to £130000 with only an overall 21% fall ? Its more like 35% isn't it? Certainly he's depression graph looks fairly impressive, but then what would a bear of little brain know

Posted by sybil13 @ 07:40 AM (1525 views)
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1. will said...


He says house prices have fallen by 21% so far, and that the bounce we are in at the moment will eventually give way to further falls down to an average price of £130,000 - which would be a total decline of 35%.

I am still waiting to see any such falls in asking prices where I live. Yes some houses have dropped 20% to achieve a sale, but many others in denial can't sell. What service are the estate agents doing for these folk?

Wednesday, November 4, 2009 08:06AM Report Comment

2. techieman said...

And "revisited" is the key. 55% drop was in March 2009. Also shown is Capital Economics (Rodge the dodge) consistently wrong forecasts. My understanding is that they (CE) based their forecasts on how overvalued the market was an what the % fall would be to bring it back into line with long term indicators such as affordability.

What they didnt do was measure how long trends exist in one direction. Thats what they needed to do and didnt.

Nadeem expects the DCB to last into the spring, so that Gordy can go to the country on a wave of optimism, win and then become a complete megalomaniac. Personally i dont think thats gonna happen, we may well see the growth in prices re-e-verse before then.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009 08:27AM Report Comment

3. phdinbubbles said...

I put together this graph the other day using the Nationwide house price MoM figures with a 3-month moving average and annualised it:

It shows spring bounces in most years with a couple of big bounces in 2002 and 2004 that pretty much reverted to the previous trend by the end of the year. This is another stonker but I'm guessing that it'll be back to -10%pa in a couple of months from previous form (unless the underlying trend has changed, or I'm talking nonsense - which is a very distinct possibility). Having said that, it does seem to have lasted slightly longer into the year than the previous bounces though.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009 09:07AM Report Comment

4. cynicalsoothsayer said...

"UK House Prices stabilising in response to 0.5% interest rates, money printing, 12% GDP budget deficit, and bank bailouts and arm twisting."

None of which can continue indefinitely.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009 09:49AM Report Comment

5. estrader said...

@3 phd,

It would be interesting if you plotted that graph with attendant volumes. The public (who is always wrong) is only attracted to changes in PRICE.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009 10:03AM Report Comment

6. techieman said...

estrader "public are always wrong" - i think you have to caveat that .... a bit.

Always wrong at the extremes of bullishness / bearishness. An "extreme" is a bit difficult to grasp - especially in a "counter-trend" move.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009 10:29AM Report Comment

7. Neilb said...

All this talk of house price rises is irrelevant: The market is dead. Sales are at the lowest level since records began.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009 10:46AM Report Comment

8. Jayk said...

There was no crash - a 20% fall over two years is not a crash, and anyway that figure was heavily skewed by all the apartment developments that bombed in the likes Leeds, Manchester and Thamesemead. Take out those and I reckon the average falls were no greater than 15% over two years. Houses in my area are back to August 2007 highs already (around 235k for a 3-bed semi), having jumped about 15k since July, and by many accounts are achieving 95% of the asking price.

Buying earlier this year (after saving up and waiting for nine years) was the best decision I ever made. I had a good deposit, I can comfortably afford my five-year fixed mortgage, and I have a nice Victorian house with big garden. I didn't see the point in spending yet more years in a dingy BTL flat delaying starting a family and waiting for this mythical 50%+ crash to finally appear.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009 02:53PM Report Comment

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