Tuesday, Nov 10, 2009

DCLG: +1.2% MoM, -4.1%YoY

Times: House prices grow for sixth month in a row

House prices rose by 1.2 per cent in September from August, the sixth increase in a row, further bolstering evidence that Britain's battered property market is over the worst.
The rise pushed the average cost of a UK home to £199,303 — a level not seen since November 2008, according to figures from the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG).
The annual rate at which prices are falling also slowed to 4.1 per cent in September from 5.6 per cent in August and a peak of 13.6 per cent in March. The DCLG survey is the latest to suggest an upturn in the housing market. A recent survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors found that house prices rose in October despite more properties coming on to the market.

Posted by little professor @ 04:01 PM (2612 views)
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101 Comments

1. yoyo1 said...

Me thinks even 'estate agents' (correction, Property Consultants) are beginning to question these facts and figures. Try telling anyone who has put their house on the market March this year, that the price of their house has now increased into this winter six months in a row!

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 04:32PM Report Comment
 

2. flashman said...

The world looks very different to the one predicted by most HPC’ers a year ago. Signs of an economic recovery are everywhere if you care to look. I still think house prices will take a further hit but my long-standing (and rather unpopular) assertion that there will be no depression or economic crash is looking good.

Once we’ve got 3 consecutive quarters of growth under our belts, it’ll be very hard for anyone to maintain a permanently bearish stance. Hopefully when the time comes, most people will feel able to admit their mistake and move on. Reading between the lines most people already suspect they’ve got it wrong, which is why the site has become a bit fractious and shifted its focus to social injustice

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 04:53PM Report Comment
 

3. rumble said...

Sounds as though people are suggesting something, somewhere has actually been fixed. I must have missed that.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 04:59PM Report Comment
 

4. hpwatcher said...

Signs of an economic recovery are everywhere if you care to look

I simple don't accept that.

Do the letters QE not mean anything to you?

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 05:15PM Report Comment
 

5. alan said...

@ flashman
Both Ericsson & EA hacked jobs today. Looking back over the past few weeks job cuts are abounding. Can't think of anyone I know outside financial services that got more than a 1.5% pay rise this year.

In my local shopping malls and industrial estates (Essex, bordering M25) there are shops and buildings up for sale.

I would love to believe that the country shows "signs of an economic recovery are everywhere if you care to look". I'm just not convinced. What new products are we inventing, and where are the new jobs?

Maybe the site is looking more at social injustice because so many bloggers are re-training for jobs as care workers - lots of opportunities there...

The UK may not be headed for a soup kitchen depression but it isn't getting better either. Stagflation is still my prognosis.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 05:34PM Report Comment
 

6. nickb said...

Latest GDP figures, supposedly independent of government interference and spin, not exactly like the DCLG I imagine, were showing negative growth, were they not? ie contraction, slump, downturn, recession.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 05:42PM Report Comment
 

7. sold out said...

Flashman

"Signs of an economic recovery are everywhere if you care to look."

Please enlighten us with the evidence of these signs?

I see no evidence of this in the real economy, all i see are further job losses, redundancies, companies cutting back.

Where are the good news stories, jobs being created, companies returning good profits?

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 05:43PM Report Comment
 

8. enuii said...

Flsahman, where do you live? Up here in the Northwest it's turning into economic carnage with more boarded up shops and pubs sprouting every week!

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 05:52PM Report Comment
 

9. hpwatcher said...

"Signs of an economic recovery are everywhere if you care to look."
Please enlighten us with the evidence of these signs?
I see no evidence of this in the real economy, all i see are further job losses, redundancies, companies cutting back.
Where are the good news stories, jobs being created, companies returning good profits?


Soon, the money that the government is prepared to spend will be exhausted - they are massively in debt. They may like to think there is a bottomless pit of money, to keep the socialist nanny state going...... but get real. Paper money is being created, not wealth.

The real question is, how much more money are they going to waste before they pull the plug on RBS? The illusion will then be shattered.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 05:53PM Report Comment
 

10. mrflibble said...

flashman would you care to pass round the blow pipe so we can all see the same recovery you do...

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 05:54PM Report Comment
 

11. Cozza said...

Flashman obviously works in the public sector which is still expanding thanks to ponzi Brown and his desire to win the General Election.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 05:56PM Report Comment
 

12. Puppee said...

flashman tell lloyds bank, e.a sports computer games threshers and ericcson mobile phones that we are in recovery and they don't need to make people redundant anymore oh and tell gordon that the interest rates can go back to normal as well, this so called recovery is all smoke and mirrors a result of massive Q.E that will hold back the economy for the next 10 to 20 years

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 06:01PM Report Comment
 

13. smugdog said...

Flash, keep your head down for a while, the Flat Earth Society will run you off the edge if you're not careful.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 06:19PM Report Comment
 

14. quiet guy said...

I believe that flashman's post at 4.53pm was a little mischievous. Allthough I'm sure he could make an argument if he wished, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a little wager on to see how many of us bears are goaded into response :D

BTW, some personal observations about the economy where I come from include boarded up shops, redundancies and wage freezes.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 06:37PM Report Comment
 

15. nomad said...

By Flashman's own measure, when unemployment hits 2.7m house prices take a plunge - we appear to be moving in that direction very quickly according to some of today's stories.

But, of course, he was goading @ 4.53pm.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 06:48PM Report Comment
 

16. the number cruncher said...

I agree with flashman that the signs of a unsustainable policy to re-inflated a bubble economy abound all around us. Look ma I'm on top of the world...

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 06:56PM Report Comment
 

17. yoyo1 said...

'Signs of an economic recovery are everywhere if you care to look'
Just an echo from 2007.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 07:03PM Report Comment
 

18. flashman said...

quiet guy: my post was mischievous to the extent that I knew it would irritate a few recidivist bears. I do however see signs of recovery everywhere. I do most of my work with large international corporations. They are, almost without exception, gearing up big time and there is genuine excitement for the first time in a few years (none of my customers work in the financial industry). The activity and investment of these firms will take a while to filter through to the street. All recessions will cause permanent damage to some people but some people will engage with the new economy and progress. We operate in a global economy and the world in aggregate never stopped growing. The worldwide growth curve is set to steepen and the UK economy will benefit. Like I said earlier, some people will not be able benefit. For example, I certainly wouldn’t want to live in a town where a very large portion of the population is currently employed by the government.

I could type 20 pages on the signs of recovery but I would be wasting my time. Time will be more persuasive. I don’t mean to upset anyone with my horrible tales of recovery. It’s just a heads up.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 07:13PM Report Comment
 

19. flashman said...

nomad: I have always said that the recovery will be framed by higher interest rates and higher taxation. For that reason, I still believe that house prices will take a further hit. The extent of house price falls will, to a large extent, be determined by how 'jobless' the recovery turns out to be. I have little faith in unemployment forecasts (they are really difficult) but I stick by my 2.7 – 2.8 million ‘tipping point’

I have to go now but I will post a ‘signs of recovery’ list when an opportunity presents itself

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 07:21PM Report Comment
 

20. cat and canary said...

flashman, Im not a recidivist bear :) I hope for a recovery, I just dont believe it.

mind if I ask what sector these large corporations are in?

I work with major international electronics corps, and I can safely say that there is no "gearing up" in them. More to the point, most of them are only just starting the process of job cuts.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 07:28PM Report Comment
 

21. Charlie White said...

Tons of QE reflated the housing bubble, which is the only segment of the economy anyone seems to care about. Is it a good thing that the UK has become a one-industry society, i.e., we sell wildly-overpriced houses to each other? What happens when we have to pay for all that QE?

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 07:37PM Report Comment
 

22. krustyatemyhamster said...

Oh flashman, you do make me smile. I'm still waiting for that $35 barrel of oil of yours.

Cozza said..."Flashman obviously works in the public sector which is still expanding thanks to ponzi Brown and his desire to win the General Election."

correction: Flashman obviously works in the city which is still expanding thanks to ponzi Brown and his desire to win the General Election.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 07:57PM Report Comment
 

23. hpwatcher said...

correction: Flashman obviously works in the city which is still expanding thanks to ponzi Brown and his desire to win the General Election.


Yes, I think Flashman misguided in the extreme.....though strangely ''satisfied''; perhaps he has just had his bonus.........

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 08:03PM Report Comment
 

24. rumble said...

A few multinationals with a positive outlook doesn't say much to me. I certainly wouldn't describe that as "everywhere".

I await your list.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 08:49PM Report Comment
 

25. sold out said...

Flashman said

"They are, almost without exception, gearing up big time and there is genuine excitement for the first time in a few years (none of my customers work in the financial industry). The activity and investment of these firms will take a while to filter through to the street."

are you sure you are not just seeing normal market behavour that allways happens during a resession, ie some of the bigger stronger companies are just taking advantage as others have fallen by the wayside?

anyway look forward to your 20 pages on "signs of recovery" i think we are in for a long wait.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 08:54PM Report Comment
 

26. icarus said...

The 'signs of recovery' are due to increasingly perverse relationships. Unemployment up? Good, that means IRs stay down and that's good for the stock market and other assets. And if unemployment is up that means workers have to do as they're told, so we see productivity rises. And how much of the recovery is due to one-off stimuli? If I trade in my old banger and buy a new car I'm probably just bringing the purchase a year forward - won't be buying next year the one I would have bought.

And we know about stock market rises since March being due to a combination of QE and lack of alternative homes for the cash printed. But how much of the US/UK rises are due also to weak currencies? Much of the sales and earnings of companies on the S&P500, for example, takes place overseas, denominated in foreign currencies, but accounted for on the books of US-incorporated firms in dollars, so that sales and earnings rise as the dollar falls. It used to be that the $ and the market went up or down together ("as the $ strengthens investors put their money in $ assets") but apparently not now. So offshoring, outsourcing, de-industrialisation and the hollowing out of our economies is good for the markets, profits etc.

A through-the-looking-glass world indeed. Lewis Carroll, Orwell and Kafka would be the seers of the age.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 09:24PM Report Comment
 

27. estrader said...

A recovery? Great! More cheap and easy credit, more house price rises, more equity withdrawals and finally and ultimately more of my money to bail out the collapsing financial system in 10 years time. I will heavily short ALL banks in 8 years time and make a killing! I can't wait!!

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 09:44PM Report Comment
 

28. flashman said...

Thought I'd have a quick look at this post. The bitterness is quite unnerving. I said there were signs of recovery... not that I wanted to eat your children.

Here's an article about the latest OECD report. The UK gets a mention "The strongest recovery is forecast to be in China, France, Italy and the UK".

"OECD data point to strong signs of recovery"

Published: November 6 2009 13:36 | Last updated: November 6 2009 13:36

All the world’s big economies are seeing strong signs of recovery from the worst global recession since the Great Depression, according to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

A measure of future economic activity by the Paris-based international organisation points to “expansion” across OECD developed economies as well as six big emerging markets in September for the first month since early 2007.

The strongest recovery is forecast to be in China, France, Italy and the UK, with Canada and Germany also showing tentative signs of expansion.

Get in step people

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 09:51PM Report Comment
 

29. cat and canary said...

I don´t think most people are suggesting you want to eat our children!.... i think they´re just suggesting you´re not right in saying "gearing up big time and there is genuine excitement"

From the FT..

The OECD was cautious in recording the improvement in the global situation saying that “these signals should be interpreted with caution, as the expected improvement in economic activity, relative to long term potential levels, can be partly attributed to a decrease in the estimated long term potential level and not solely an improvement in economic activity itself”.

The OECD data are intended to provide “early signals of turning points in economic activity”.

They are based upon a range of different series on a national level that are then combined into the OECD measure.

The figures appear to contradict other data which have shown that the UK is lagging much of the rest of the world in exiting the recession. Official figures showed that the UK contracted by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter. However, some business surveys have been much stronger, and some economists have cast doubt on the reliability of the official statistics.

The UK OECD figures are based on the performance of non-financial stocks in the FTSE, several measures of the business climate from the Confederation of British Industry, as well as consumer confidence and interest rate measures.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2ff69bba-cace-11de-97e0-00144feabdc0.html?catid=20&SID=google

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 10:06PM Report Comment
 

30. devo said...

You certainly are mischievous, flashman.

No way would you return to this site day after day if you were genuinely optimistic about our economic future.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 10:22PM Report Comment
 

31. Donkey2409 said...

Flashman @2 Don t take this personally, but you are deluded. Please indicate these "signs of economic growth" you see all around, and perhaps I'm wrong but wasn t GDP negative last quarter: unemployment is on the way up, a huge axe is slowly but inexorably approaching the
public sector, wage growth is small or negative and the country is technically and factually broke...rises in house prices at the moment are not a sign of success, prosperity or economic growth, rather a sign of a deeply disfunctional economy. Sorry to have a go, but you're trying to call black white....

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 10:34PM Report Comment
 

32. icarus said...

Flashy - OK, let's take China then. Industrial production, fixed investment, GDP growth, asset prices all strongly upward. Again it's just a government response that postpones the reckoning - $600 bn fiscal stimulus and twice that much in bank loans extended in the first 6 months this year. Flood the economy with cash to paper over the problems. An RBS analysis reckoned that half of those loans fed bubbles in equities, property and other assets. Not much of the private sector got those loans but if they did it put them into bubble assets. Most of the rest of the loans went into state companies, run by politically powerful families, and gov't-backed infrastructure - mostly of the 'bridges to nowhere' type (plans are to have twice as many km of high-speed roads than the US has, despite having less than a quarter as many cars). This all boosts demand for steel, concrete etc. but creates relatively few jobs (another jobless recovery). There's also massive investment in airports that can never pay for itself - lot's of 'toxic assets' in the pipeline. Meanwhile the SME sector, which provides 75% of jobs is declining while the well-funded state sector gobbles it up. There's a lot of corruption and nepotism involved in getting a prized, reasonably-paying state job.

Official figures may show income growth and rising consumption but this is heavily weighted towards state salaries and gov't procurement. Incomes and private consumption appears weak and unable to compensate for the loss of exports.

So yes, it is possible that suppliers to China are gearing up but this investment won't 'hit the streets' - ever.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 10:37PM Report Comment
 

33. flashman said...

C&C: When I say "gearing up big time and there is genuine excitement" it is a statement of fact. I was talking about my customers and the more they gear up the more they request our services. We have more business than we can handle. Some might (erroneously) say that my customers are not representative but the OECD report says otherwise. There is a very real economy in this country that beavers away regardless of all the HPC talk about ponzi schemes and debt fueled whatnots.

Preliminary data from October and November shows that we have already exited the recession. You will not be able to find a single economist who is not absolutely certain that the GDP figures for the current quarter will be positive. Even manufacturing and retail have surged in the last 6 weeks. The OECD and the IMF have both been surprised by the quicker than expected recovery and are both revising their forecasts. Several countries have started to increase their interest rates which is a further sign of recovery.

My opinions are are based on hard data (obviously we have better access to fresh data than most). The press will catch up in a few weeks.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 10:50PM Report Comment
 

34. icarus said...

Some companies will gear up to provide stimulus-induced demand such as I outlined for China @31. There isn't the job creation anywhere, including China, that will underpin and sustain that demand.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 10:58PM Report Comment
 

35. devo said...

32. flashman said... There is a very real economy in this country that beavers away regardless of all the HPC talk about ponzi schemes and debt fueled whatnots.

Very righteous tub-thumping stuff, flashman.

Consider this...

The banks are on life-support
The housing market is on life-support
The car industry is on life-support
The public sector is on life-support
Small business is dying.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:04PM Report Comment
 

36. flashman said...

devo: This is a house price site (not a great depression 2 site) and as I have said a thousand times, I think house prices will fall.

I do not return to the site day after day. I only return to this site on occasion. I tend to post for a few days running and then I forget about it for a month or so. It's far too repetitive and I don't usually have the time

This is not an 'end of days' and revolution site but the site has allowed content of this kind because it is desperate for the traffic. HPC is definitely on the way out

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:06PM Report Comment
 

37. icarus said...

flashman - so it's OK to say that boom times are ahead but not OK to deny that?

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:11PM Report Comment
 

38. devo said...

35. flashman said... devo: This is a house price site

And yet we both love s2r1's posts. How queer!

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:17PM Report Comment
 

39. timmy t said...

Flash - there will always be those who seek to gain from recessions and I'm sure you are talking about these companies, but there really are not enough of them to be able to say that the end is in sight yet. We need 2 consecutive quarters of decline to be in a recession but 20 minutes of growth and everyone claims it's all over. It ain't. Not by a long way. Sure you can sit there and say it is, and then in a couple of years when we do turn the corner you can say you predicted it first. That doesn't make you "in the know" it just means you happen to work in an industry that gets busy when times are bad. Like others here have said, we are all on life support. We are trying unprecendented fiscal policies and we're still going backwards. And when we do finally start moving forward, we will be faced with decades of paying off our deficit.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:20PM Report Comment
 

40. flashman said...

hello icarus: It is the 'absolutes' that I have a problem with. Some production and demand is stimulus based and some isn't. Some stimulus money will be wasted and some will assist with the creation of new and genuinely sustainable business. Some businesses continued to function well throughout the recession without a sniff of stimulus. I saw an interesting statistic on the BBC the other day. Apparently 48% of small businesses either maintained their business or actually grew in the recession.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:23PM Report Comment
 

41. flashman said...

devo: yes, I like str1. He's an original

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:25PM Report Comment
 

42. devo said...

40. flashman said... devo: yes, I like str1. He's an original

But he rarely talks about house prices nowadays which negates your post @35.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:28PM Report Comment
 

43. Jayk said...

If the majority of the bears on this site were right in their 2007 and 2008 'predictions' we'd have an average house price of under 100k, oil at $250 per barrel and consumer inflation in excess of 25%.

But you were wrong. Of course, now it's all "Ooh, wait 'til next year! You'll see!". Whatever.....

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:33PM Report Comment
 

44. flashman said...

timmy: I would love to have the ability to predict but all I am doing is reading hard data. My 'forecasts' are just a faithful reproduction of the latest thinking amongst forcasters and economists. I don't really rate my own forecasting skills. It is indeed ridiculous that a recovery consists of only one data point but for what it's worth, most people are predicting healthy growth for the next two quarters followed by more tepid growth. Once we've had three consecutive quarters of growth, we will start the slow slog of clearing up some debt. I never said it would be easy

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:38PM Report Comment
 

45. clockslinger said...

Flashman has a balanced view I would say...there will no doubt be many sectors and many people doing quite well and likely to do better. The jobless recovery /govnt. job cuts will be the big test of HP resistance...theres no public money left to spend on anything worthwhile now the banks have had it all.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:38PM Report Comment
 

46. devo said...

43. clockslinger said... there will no doubt be many sectors and many people doing quite well and likely to do better

Care to develop that thought?

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:41PM Report Comment
 

47. cat and canary said...

flashman, i can´t argue with your subjective experiences of you/your clients, (what sectors do you deal with, from curiosity). I work in very large engineering firms, and believe me, it is not all rosy news.

I am not arguing that GDP isn´t going to turn positive shortly. Of course it is.

Your view is bullish compared to the FT account on the OECD report that I pasted is it not? Perhaps that is substantiated by your access to fresh data?

But when the FT says "as the expected improvement in economic activity, relative to long term potential levels, can be partly attributed to a decrease in the estimated long term potential level and not solely an improvement in economic activity itself"

...then your views still seem litoo bullish. People here find it pretty difficult to believe that this growth we are seeing is not deep rooted, prove me otherwise.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:44PM Report Comment
 

48. flashman said...

devo: You missed my point. You claimed that "No way would you return to this site day after day if you were genuinely optimistic about our economic future"

I pointed out that this is a house price site (as opposed to an economic pessimism site). If it were an economic pessimism site, I would not return. As it is a house price site and I believe that house prices will fall, I return (occasionally)

That does not stop me liking str1.

You very rarely talk about house prices. Why do you return?

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:53PM Report Comment
 

49. devo said...

42. flashman said... My 'forecasts' are just a faithful reproduction of the latest thinking amongst forecasters and economists.

This statement encapsulates all that I find endearing about you...

(I hope that doesn't come across as patronising)

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:53PM Report Comment
 

50. devo said...

46. flashman said... You very rarely talk about house prices. Why do you return?

'cos it's fun!

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:55PM Report Comment
 

51. flashman said...

C&C: yes my 'bullishness' is substantiated by my access to fresh data. The data is positive and I can't report it any other way. We might claim that its only because of this and that but after a few quarters you have to stop doubting. By the way I wouldn't consider myself bullish. I just read the data and try to stay as 'Spock like' as possible

"as the expected improvement in economic activity, relative to long term potential levels, can be partly attributed to a decrease in the estimated long term potential level and not solely an improvement in economic activity itself"

the word 'partly' implies that the expected improvement is also partly real. Its not much of a negative. The rest of the report was very positive.

I am not saying that its all gravy from now on. It'll be difficult but things are slowly coming back to life. I suspect that you also believe we'll see several quarters of growth.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 12:06AM Report Comment
 

52. flashman said...

devo: no problem

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 12:08AM Report Comment
 

53. Devon_bloke said...

I like reading this site because I think there is a lot of intelligent opinion on the state of the economy. I find it interesting and educational.

But for the amount of bright people on here I do wonder when I see people like flashman provoking the response they get. There's an old saying on the internet....don't feed the troll!

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 12:09AM Report Comment
 

54. flashman said...

C&C: btw, my views are not based on that OECD article. It was the first consumer available thing I could google

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 12:11AM Report Comment
 

55. mander said...

I will see recovery for the economy not for the housing market only when unemplyment stops and jobs are created by the private sector. Since then I have better things to do than listen to estate agents suppositions.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 12:12AM Report Comment
 

56. cat and canary said...

allright flashman, will wait with interest regarding next few Q´s of GDP data. I still have my doubts for now regarding how strong that growth will really be. The forces of unemployment, inflation pressure and govt debt levels etc bearing down for considerable time yet.

Whole divisions of my organisation are still not taking orders, irrespective of share price performance. But agree that things are slowly coming back to life at a corporate level. But perhaps not in many people´s pockets for quite some time.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 12:27AM Report Comment
 

57. rumble said...

Flash, retail up does not equal a sign of recovery in the run up to christmas.
Increased interest rates does not equal a sign of recovery.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 01:02AM Report Comment
 

58. quiet guy said...

Flashman,

Some of the criticisms of your earlier offerings are perhaps a bit too strident in tone but if you're still reading, I invite you to peruse the comments to this:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100001865/how-to-solve-britains-fiscal-crisis-lessons-from-history/

I find it interesting to compare the tone of the comments to the Telegraph article with this blog. It's relatively easy to write us off as a bunch of "recidivist bears" doomers but can comments posted to the Telegraph also be dismissed quite so easily? Maybe I'm just a glass half empty personality but I'm tired of seeing failure being rewarded. Really tired.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 01:30AM Report Comment
 

59. flashman said...

rumble @54:

Economists compare like for like retail sales ie Nov 08 - Nov09. A central bank typically puts its interest rates up to cool growth and puts them down to encourage growth.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 02:31AM Report Comment
 

60. flashman said...

Quiet guy: I am genuinely sorry to hear that you are tired of the way things are.

I read the article and the comments. It has to be recognised that posters/commentators tend to be angry people. Contented people (the majority) do not generally bother. Many of the opinions expressed on this site would be met with amazement by the general public. Your moderate and reasonable postings are sadly not typical HPC fare, although there are several good posters.

The angry reaction to my original post reveals that some posters are very insecure in their bearish beliefs. I have often been struck by the thought that some HPC'ers actually fear a recovery. My guess is that they perceived that an economic crash would level the playing field and wipe away years of frustration. I think bellwether calls it an equalisation fantasy.

The recession is technically over (although there's still lots of pain to come) and soon there will be more good news than bad news. This site is on its last legs and the debates will get increasingly bad tempered. Utube clips and 'end of days' stuff has already wrecked the site and it will only get worse. I was initially fascinated by the mindset of the bearish blogger but I now realise that some of them are in serious pain and that parading my optimism might be a little unkind. I think it is, therefore, a good time to slip away.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 03:54AM Report Comment
 

61. hpwatcher said...

Well, enjoy it Flashman, the question is how long will it last? I mean, how much longer will the FLOOD of cheap money that is QE, encourage people to take risks in an artificial economy giving the impression of real recovery. But what happens when the ''heroin'' is withdrawn?

For some reason, you have chosen to see some of the effects of QE as a more sustainable recovery - just because your customers have - you should know this far better than anybody else.

Yes, we will definitely see what will happen.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 05:31AM Report Comment
 

62. sold out said...

Flashman

where is the "signs of recovery list" you promised?
seriously i would be interested to see them.
btw i think you are wrong to assume that many of the postings here are an "angry" reaction to your bullish forecasts.
You did say initially that "signs of recovery are everywhere if you care to look"
It was this statement that i believe most here disagree with.
later on in the thread you say

"My opinions are are based on hard data (obviously we have better access to fresh data than most). The press will catch up in a few weeks"

Which is a bit contradictory, don't you think?

Anyway i look forward to your future postings as they allways seem to generate a good debate.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 07:19AM Report Comment
 

63. flashman said...

sold out: I do try to stimulate good debate but you guys should self-regulate a bit better. I always tried to reply to posters such as yourself but why do you tolerate the crazy guys? If I were a bear, I would stamp on the nastier fellows because they drive away people who are prepared to make a counter argument. Read through this thread and ask yourself if you would bother?

I really don't see how my two comments clash but no matter. I do look at fresh data but the signs have been there for some time. One confirms the other. Btw the signs really are everywhere and I have referenced several of them in this thread.

Here's some examples from the article posted by devo this morning (there are some qualifying statements in the article but the jist is unmistakable)

"Asia is dancing along as if the recession never happened".

"On one level, we should welcome this return to boom times; it’s helping the banks rebuild their capital. Core tier one equity at Barclays is now back to 9 per cent, which is as healthy as HSBC. For both these banks, there is no capital contraint any longer on ability to lend."

I'm afraid my promised list will never be posted (I might post on The Economic Voice if you're interested) but there really is no need. The press is full of it and will be for months to come. Cheers

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 07:52AM Report Comment
 

64. cat and canary said...

flashman, I appreciate your technical analysis, but disagree with your criticisms of blogger´s "anger" as being unrepresentative of the general public and plain "bad tempered" or becasue of "insecurity about a recovery"

1.) "moral hazard" is something real, aluded to by our BoE governor, and it represents the injustice of using huge amounts of taxpayers money to bail out the feckless.

2.) This was a HPC site, until the govt dumped the losses on the nation, then the issues became wider and deeper than that. Whereas many of us accept the govt had little choice, they do have a choice in tightening regulation and its not happened in any meaningful way according to many here.

3.) "Many of the opinions expressed on this site would be met with amazement by the general public." ... disagree... "a new BBC poll has found widespread dissatisfaction with free-market capitalism." (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8347409.stm).

With respect, I know that your are a intelligent person, like so many on this site. But if I was to make sweeping statements about bulls, I would say that "they live in crystal castles and have very little idea about the suffering of the rest of the world." But that would also be a sweeping statement.

Given that 50 million people worldwide have already lost their job, and about the same number have already slipped below the poverty line as a direct result of the banking crisis, according to the world bank, then I think that the anger expressed here is justified. Very

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 07:53AM Report Comment
 

65. hpwatcher said...

"Asia is dancing along as if the recession never happened".

This is definitely true, but the UK and the US are not Asia.

C'mon then Flashman, admit that you are simply mistaking the effects of QE for a full blown recovery? QE isn't wealth creation. It's an easy mistake to make, lots of people are making it. I fear the electorate of the UK are going to make it too.

Well, your mind is obviously as closed as those that you villify on here, so I won't try to convince you.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 08:03AM Report Comment
 

66. flashman said...

C&C: It is important to remember that the vast majority of people have kept their jobs. Unemployment is less that it was in previous recessions, despite better productivity and a higher population. Some perspective is needed.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 08:06AM Report Comment
 

67. hpwatcher said...

C&C: It is important to remember that the vast majority of people have kept their jobs. Unemployment is less that it was in previous recessions, despite better productivity and a higher population. Some perspective is needed.

This has not been a 'conventional' recesison.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 08:09AM Report Comment
 

68. flashman said...

hpwatcher: I actually understand QE. With respect I'm pretty sure that you don't.

Of course it helped. That's what it was for.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 08:11AM Report Comment
 

69. flashman said...

hp: The only thing unusual about this recession is that it is now fashionable to talk about it on blogs. Even the banking crisis has happened before (over and over throughout history).

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 08:14AM Report Comment
 

70. cat and canary said...

I expect that many people were angry in previous recessions also...

Of course, many people have scraped through this with minor cuts.

But the banking system very nearly did collapse with unknown consequences, which is great cause for concern. That is very real perspective

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 08:25AM Report Comment
 

71. estrader said...

flashman, an honest question (If you wouldn't mind answering): Using what you know and what you sense, would you buy a property now? Not asking for a long detailed reply, maybe just in point form as to some reasons why or why not. Many thanks.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 08:31AM Report Comment
 

72. flashman said...

estrader: I just bought a large plot and I bought some land in France this summer. I think house prices will fall (as detailed elsewhere,
ad nauseam) but the margin on my finished house should more than compensate. A pragmatic solution. I don't approve of waiting for a situation to suit me

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 08:38AM Report Comment
 

73. smugdog said...

When the troops start fighting each other, it's time to worry. Oh what a lovely war it is.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 08:41AM Report Comment
 

74. flashman said...

smugsy: not sure I was ever one of the troops.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 08:52AM Report Comment
 

75. hpwatcher said...

hpwatcher: I actually understand QE. With respect I'm pretty sure that you don't.
Of course it helped. That's what it was for.

I would not be so arrogant to pretend that I understand QE.....But, if I may ask, do you?
I'm not sure even BOE understand what they have done.

hp: The only thing unusual about this recession is that it is now fashionable to talk about it on blogs. Even the banking crisis has happened before (over and over throughout history).

Yes, but not one quite like this.


the margin on my finished house should more than compensate

Yes, I understand that you now speculating on housing....and that you now have vested interests in talking things up.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 08:53AM Report Comment
 

76. sold out said...

Thanks flashman for the reply.

I am of the opinion that regardless of what we see at the moment the true indicator of where the uk economy is going will only be revealed once QE stops, we will see what happens middle of next year i guess.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 09:16AM Report Comment
 

77. flashman said...

hpwatcher: I actually bought land with the intention of providing my family with a great home. It is not my intention to ever sell or 'speculate' as you put it. I couldn't care less if prices rise or fall

"and that you now have vested interests in talking things up".

A nonsensical comment. I repeatedly say that house prices will fall and back it up with a reasoned argument.

"I would not be so arrogant to pretend that I understand QE.....But, if I may ask, do you?
I'm not sure even BOE understand what they have done."

I'm glad that you've admitted that you do not understand QE. It beggars belief that you should be so strident about something you don't understand. Of course I understand QE and of course the BOE understands QE. It's a simple concept when you have the training and inclination.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 09:37AM Report Comment
 

78. smugdog said...

You forecast capitulation, you report job losses, you detest the way that stupid street has been rescued and bailed out.
You hope beyond hope of market crashes, disasters and government failure in order to provide that one Holy Grail to you - house price crash!

But why? Why oh why do the majority on this site think in this way? I’ll tell you why, greed, the exact same value that you detest so much in the “sheeple” that you write about day after day.

The majority are here waiting, hoping for the (don’t make me laugh, it hurts) CRASH
So that they too can get “back in” and reap the rewards of buoyant markets after selling – not so high - and waiting, waiting, waiting.

You are no different from the very people that you look down on from your ivory desks, where you have that sneaky look at HPC every 5 minutes, but ever so careful just in case the boss catches you. If anyone questions your views, your “precious things”, that’s not allowed in here! On your way.

Flashman, don’t waste your time on these selfish self-serving individuals and move on, or if you enjoy a plaything, then do carry on, it’s so very entertaining.

Flashman, Techie, Crunchy, S2R1, Sold Out, C& C and a few select more, your views are balanced, valued and well written.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 09:38AM Report Comment
 

79. flashman said...

cheers smugdog.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 09:42AM Report Comment
 

80. p. doff said...

That list of posters of balanced, valued and well written views.

Agree for some of the names, but the rest ........ hahahahahhhaaawhaaahahawhaha . ooh my sides hurt!

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 09:48AM Report Comment
 

81. hpwatcher said...

I'm glad that you've admitted that you do not understand QE. It beggars belief that you should be so strident about something you don't understand. Of course I understand QE and of course the BOE understands QE. It's a simple concept when you have the training and inclination.

I disagree, I don't think you do know what you are talking about. Nor do I think BOE really know what they are doing either.



selfish self-serving individuals

Than one is a classic.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 09:57AM Report Comment
 

82. flashman said...

hpwatcher: It doesn't matter what you think. The world continues to spin without your dourness and lack of comprehension.

Smugdog is right. Praying for an economic calamity to suit your own ends, is indeed very selfish.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 10:05AM Report Comment
 

83. cat and canary said...

well thanks smugdog, not sure how balanced i am! ..couple of pints down the Cat and Canary should sort out my balance!

w.r.t. flashman, respect for standing up for what you believe in the face of fierce bears! Smugdog I'm not in favour of encouraging flashman to leave! We need his opinion, even if it is a bit bullish, haha ;-)

w.r.t 'bashing bankers' - i live amongst them, and know a few. For the most part they're a bunch of intelligent 30-somethings, earning a 100K salary and looking out for themselves. But its the ones at the very top, pulling the strings, the Fred Goodwins etc, i'm wonder about, with such enormous power and influence comes great responsibility, and I've not seen much of the latter

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 10:11AM Report Comment
 

84. p. doff said...

Flash, Smugsy - Can a couple of months make that much difference? - http://www.armstrongdavis.com/blog/2009/aug/27/recession-over-thus-sell-shares/

Or do the conflicting views of a myriad 'knowledgeable' people suggest nobody really knows how/when this fiasco will pan out?

Take your point though - it's obvious the doomsters are an infectious and relentless breed, whereas a lot of the more rational types seem to move on.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 10:25AM Report Comment
 

85. flashman said...

Hello p.doff: I had a quick look. He says that “unemployment will still be rising c 100,000 PER MONTH to next year”

It only increased by 12,900 in the last release and employment actually increased by 6000. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to this chap.

I was quite bearish at the start of the year but you've got to be prepared to analyse data as it comes in. I'm always amazed by how quickly things can change but I'm no longer surprised by it

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 10:39AM Report Comment
 

86. icarus said...

flashman - you carried your bat through the innings. Well played, sir.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 10:49AM Report Comment
 

87. flashman said...

Thanks icarus. On the strength of our last debate, I've started re-reading Das Kapital. It's absolutely brilliant. I read it in college but took a completely different meaning from it.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 11:02AM Report Comment
 

88. hpwatcher said...

hpwatcher: It doesn't matter what you think. The world continues to spin without your dourness and lack of comprehension.

Smugdog is right. Praying for an economic calamity to suit your own ends, is indeed very selfish


And it doesn't matter what you think either. Dourness hasn't got anything to do with it - what I want is honesty. Feel free to throw as many insults as you want. We shall see.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 11:05AM Report Comment
 

89. sold out said...

smugdog

I personally detest the way the bail out has rewarded stupid incompetent bankers,stupid idiotic housing "developers", and BTL's etc etc.
These risk takers have been saved by the rest of us, the prudent, those that have worked hard and saved.
I read somewhere recently that this will eventually cost £24,000 per uk resident to save these suckers.

How can that be right or fair?
This is not capitalism or free markets as i understand them.

I have just bought a house recently so have no personal reason for wanting a HPC, but i also do not wish to live in a country that continues to repeat the same boom and bust cycles regarding housing that are so damaging to all of us and future generations.
If my money is being used to prop up the feckless and a HPC is avoided so be it, but in return i would expect regulation on banks, Changes in tax to prevent the BTL profiteers, a massive house building program...If that doesn't happen then sadly and with regret i and i believe many others will leave the UK for good.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 11:11AM Report Comment
 

90. flashman said...

As you wish hpwatcher. Good luck to you

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 11:11AM Report Comment
 

91. icarus said...

flashman - you just convinced me. I ought to do the same - along with Ricardo, Smith et al.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 11:12AM Report Comment
 

92. flashman said...

"regulation on banks, Changes in tax to prevent the BTL profiteers, a massive house building program"

Sensible stuff. I couldn't agree more

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 11:14AM Report Comment
 

93. hpwatcher said...

As you wish hpwatcher. Good luck to you

And good luck to you too.



also do not wish to live in a country that continues to repeat the same boom and bust cycles regarding housing that are so damaging to all of us and future generations

Yes, we seem to be getting into of spirals of asset booms - to keep the party going. It doesn't feel right to me, I can't see it continuing for much longer....so there has been a FLOOD of new money, which has led to artificial growth, but I don't see any real wealth creation....this is the real problem for the UK.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 11:28AM Report Comment
 

94. smugdog said...

Good points - Sold Out.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 11:29AM Report Comment
 

95. techieman said...

Flash - i hope you read this.

I think you have a point. Its no good being a bear and banging you head against a brick wall. Personally i said (in Oct 2008) that we would be setting up for a retracement toward the highs. At that point i envisaged the return of the bulls and even some bears becoming bullish on this site. I did say though that then we would have the next move down.

I think people need to calm down a bit - my own view is still that we will have the double dip. BUT i can accept being wrong on that, and perhaps we are in a new dawn. A bit of rambling there my point is this:

If you are off, will you come back if the bear re-instates? Not for you to eat humble pie or anything am just interested in your views.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 01:42PM Report Comment
 

96. flashman said...

hello techie: I am following this thread to the end and that’s it for me. I am going to take a year off to build a family house. I am also entered into the Etape du Tour next summer and will be in serious training for that (good excuse to spend a few weeks climbing Mount Teide this winter). It finishes with an horrendous climb from 457 meters to 2115 meters, so I have some work to do. I am only telling you this to explain why I wont be blogging. These days, I don’t really do much work in between meetings, so a spot of blogging with my coffee, was sometimes good filler

Re the bear reinstating …I am ONLY talking about the actual economy, NOT the markets. I gave up trying to decipher their crazy dance years ago. As you know more than anyone, it's quite possible for the markets to tank because the economic recovery has become established or continue growing or do a triple back flip summersault with twizzle shapes.

I remain a property bear. I doubt that will change in the foreseeable future because interest rates and taxation will rise at some point.

I wish you well

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 02:47PM Report Comment
 

97. smugdog said...

You take care out there Flash. Good luck

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 02:59PM Report Comment
 

98. techieman said...

Ok Flash - good luck and have fun. I am sure our paths (as opposed to swords) will cross one day... if they havent already!

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 03:18PM Report Comment
 

99. quiet guy said...

Cheers Flashman.

I agree with techieman; it would be interesting to compare notes in a year or so about the UK economy.

Thursday, November 12, 2009 12:32AM Report Comment
 

100. flashman said...

Cheers quiet guy

I will make a gratuitous post because 100 is a nice looking number. Techie is probably talking about comparing notes on the equity markets. I'm glad he brought that up because it gave me the chance to make it clear that I was only talking about the actual economy. I don't tend to think in terms of the markets but I'm flattered that you would want to compare notes with me and will of course try to oblige sometime in the new year. All the best.

Thursday, November 12, 2009 03:45AM Report Comment
 

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