Monday, Nov 30, 2009

Beware the well-hung parliament

The Times: Morgan Stanley warns UK risks full-blown debt crisis

Economists from Morgan Stanley said that if next year’s elections resulted in a hung Parliament, the country could face losing its AAA debt rating as investors panicked over whether the majority party had the authority to push through the fiscal tightening needed to get the UK’s finances back on track.

Posted by devo @ 11:04 PM (2205 views)
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20 Comments

1. devo said...

There will be no significant fiscal tightening, hung parliament or not.

Monday, November 30, 2009 11:18PM Report Comment
 

2. Cheekie Charlie said...

Interest rates, fiscal tightening you name it. These will be dictated by global events which the UK has no influence or control but one thing is for sure we are extremely vulnerable!

Monday, November 30, 2009 11:22PM Report Comment
 

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4. quiet guy said...

It seems possible to me that Labour are hoping for (conspiracy theorists translation: engineering) a sufficiently atrocious problem in another country to avert attention from our problems. Although the UK's fiscal position is bad, might it be argued that Greece, the Baltic states, Ireland or Spain are in even worse shape?

Apart from quietly inflating away our currency, I don't see much alternative except to try to appear relatively less of a deadbeat than than other debtors.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 12:34AM Report Comment
 

5. general congreve said...

I think a sovereign debt crisis and/or currency crisis is a foregone conclusion for the UK, it's just a matter of time regardless of who gets in.

It's possible that if the Tories get in with a majority they will make some headway on our debt via public service cutbacks, but at best that will only put off the problem, until the fickle voters vote Labour back in 4 years later cos they don't like the taste of the nasty medicine they need to take.

Personally I am going to vote Labour in the next election as they are the party most likely to continue leading us down the garden path to a debt crisis. The sooner this country crashes and burns the quicker it can rebuild, with the added benefit that the effect of a sovereign debt/currency crisis on the value of my precious metals portfolio should set me up quite nicely for the next few years, MWAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 12:52AM Report Comment
 

6. gone-to-colombia said...

Cameron with his tax evading, cafe society 'elite' and empty headed property advisor are hardly much of an alternative but I cannot imagine Labour can hold on to power. I suspect that it will be a reverse re run of the first Blair victory. With that victory will come public spending cut to rival anything we've seen before.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 02:33AM Report Comment
 

7. hpwatcher said...

There will be no significant fiscal tightening, hung parliament or not.

I agree....it is simply beyond BOE and ANY government. Far easier to destroy the pound.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 06:41AM Report Comment
 

8. cat and canary said...

1) Fitch recently said that the UK's AAA rating would be threatened if the government implemented another major fiscal stimulus

2) Now Morgan Stanley says our credit rating will be under threat if our debt isn't drastically cut.

3) None of our political parties have produced a credible plan yet to tackle the debt, nor have any had the political backbone to admit that taxes will rise and jobs must be cut

=====

from wiki...

"Zugzwang is a term originally used in chess which also applies to various other games. It describes a situation where one player is put at a disadvantage because he has to make a move – the player would prefer to pass and make no move. The fact that the player must make a move means that his position will be significantly weaker"

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 09:16AM Report Comment
 

9. Planetgordon said...

@generalcongreve

Watch out for the capital gains tax increase in April 2010. Will increase to 50% for capital gains over £150,000.00!

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 09:36AM Report Comment
 

10. str 2007 said...

You all talk of Labour or Conservative.

I'm not selling here, but why doesn't anyone ever see the Lib Dems as an alternative, being the only party who spotted the current problem in time to do something about it.

Given the two big parties have both led us to bust in recent (20) years, wouldn't it be a good idea to chance our luck with someone else.

Genuinely interested in reasons why not.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 10:36AM Report Comment
 

11. letthemfall said...

str 2007
I wouldn't mind seeing the LibDems in power (they certainly have the weightiest politician in Vince Cable), though I think it almost impossible for them to achieve a majority. One advantage of a hung parliament is that this might give them some influence, which is what happened in the late 70s - Lib-Lab pact, not perhaps a glowing example of a successful collaboration.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 10:53AM Report Comment
 

12. inbreda said...

@8

I would happily have the lib dems over the other two (although I think all career politicians are, by definition, no good for the job or society). They are the only party I would vote for, if I really beleived it was worth voting in the uk. Which I don't.

I remember suggesting to someone that lib dems were the best to vote for and their response was "there's no point - they'll never win!". So we had to have a discussion to clarify that voting was not in any way similar to punting on the GGs. The aim was not to back the winner. But the point was fairly lost on him.

I think a lot of people on this site would be favourable to lib dems, but they are also aware that because of the "they'll never win" attitude the sad fact is that.. they will never win. So, sad and self defeatist though it is, there is no point in talking about them as a serious alternative. The electorate is just too stupid to allow it to ever happen.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 11:21AM Report Comment
 

13. jonny parker said...

Well they get my vote, a protest vote since weapons of mass bullsh*t - I know its wasted but one can always dream!

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 11:43AM Report Comment
 

14. str 2007 said...

Cheers letthemfall & inbreda

It's not just me then.

It has to be said that the Lib Dem marketing machine is truly pants. You couldn't be gifted a better opportunity to get into power, than the present situation.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 11:46AM Report Comment
 

15. letthemfall said...

I would say no vote is wasted, even if your party is unlikely to win. And one should always try to vote: if you think all candidates hopeless you can always spoil your ballot paper - a vote of no-confidence if you like.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 11:50AM Report Comment
 

16. crunchy said...

8. It is because our politicians are career people that they get voted in. It's also the reason why the global agenda never seems to slow down in advancement, even when it is proven that certain agendas such as the global warming scam, now known as climate change are a complete hoax. The world is suffering more from corruption now than it ever has. Lib dems just don't play into the bigger picture. When you have the BBC sitting on the biggest "Climategate" fraud news story for over 5 weeks, and then only reporting about the hackers, you may start to understand. The world is now ran and payrolled by huge corporations and bigger by the day banks. Did I miss all the money that climate change taxation and backing has already sucked out of the system and unwitting taxpayers via bailouts. I could go on.

If you haven't seen it already- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8LPNRI_6T8 Lib dem, nuls points!

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 11:50AM Report Comment
 

17. letthemfall said...

"the global warming scam, now known as climate change are a complete hoax. "

Nonsense crunchy

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 01:44PM Report Comment
 

18. crunchy said...

is a complete hoax. Oh dear! Other more informed people will understand.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 01:59PM Report Comment
 

19. letthemfall said...

Ahh, once again we'll all have to defer to your insight.

(You always seemed more reasonable as troy)

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 02:24PM Report Comment
 

20. crunchy said...

troy~~~~~~~~~~~ lol

letthemfall and others that have not, please watch the documentary. I am not asking you to hero worship, but to accept some facts.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 02:56PM Report Comment
 

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