Friday, Nov 27, 2009

Abu dhabi ding dong

FT: Abu Dhabi expected to prop up smaller brother

Will Abu Dahbi let Dubai fail?

Posted by devo @ 11:32 PM (1961 views)
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1. fallingbuzzard said...

Good question. They can afford to prop them up, but will they? The betting is about 12 to 1 that they'll let them fail, so quite unlikely. Everyone props everyone else up until someone doesn't. Thats how sovereign debt works?

Saturday, November 28, 2009 12:33AM Report Comment

2. fallingbuzzard said...

Or rather it appears that they are able to prop them up, but noone appears certain that they actually can or will.

Saturday, November 28, 2009 12:34AM Report Comment

3. little professor said...

A sovereign default by Dubai would have huge repercussions for the rest of the Emirates, including Abu Dhabi. Unfortunately I think their hand may be forced here, bailout here we come...

Saturday, November 28, 2009 01:22AM Report Comment

4. rumble said...

Family, how can they not. And reputation.

Saturday, November 28, 2009 01:35AM Report Comment

5. peter_2008 said...

What Abu Dhabi would do? Arabic brotherhood love has been historically proven rather…err…unreliable. Abu Dhabi probably is not as fond of its cousins as Gordon loves his banker mates.

The problem is that Dubai is built on an illusion, false economy model. It will keep going bust again and again. And there is no way out. So the question Abu Dhabi is asking itself right now is not whether it should bail out Dubai, it is how many times does it have to bail out Dubai.

This is bit like deciding how you deal with your cocky unemployed drug addict little brother. Giving him tons of money is not a solution. It only makes things worse in the long term. Send him to rehab and if he can’t sort out his own shxt and dies in his own vomit, well, life is tough. If Abu Dhabi can't do the tough thing. UAE would look like a typical family ruined by one drug addict - you see plenty of them in this country!

Saturday, November 28, 2009 03:55AM Report Comment

6. tenyearstogetmymoneyback said...

Strong opinions there Peter.

I was simply wondering if the bailout might come with some stringent
conditions e.g. No skyscapers or new islands until you are getting a decent
return on the ones already built.

Saturday, November 28, 2009 06:25AM Report Comment

7. nomad said...

If RBS, as lender-in-chief, have to seek more taxpayers' support for this - then surely we will have reached a tipping point in the tolerance of even the British public.

Saturday, November 28, 2009 09:52AM Report Comment

8. mken said...

The "fear" is that Dubai World may be forced to sell assets around the world - leading to downward pressure on the value of all kinds of "assets". Continued Abu Dhabi rescues prolong the illusion of value.

Saturday, November 28, 2009 11:47AM Report Comment

9. Jacobite said...


I think gordon brown had a meeting with the sheik of dubai this week, so I would consider the bailout is already a done deal.

Saturday, November 28, 2009 11:49AM Report Comment

10. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.


11. paul said...

Actually, I think I believe Peter's view. The Dubai that we have known (whores, shopping, drugs, property speculation etc.) has had a very uneasy relationship with the Islamic natives.

Love will not be lost if Dubai fails. Reputation might though which is why I suspect Abu Dhabi will come to the rescue for the time being, and on their own terms (i.e. cleaning the place up a bit).

Saturday, November 28, 2009 12:04PM Report Comment

12. the number cruncher said...

I have a small contract with Dubai World company - Bugger!

As much as I want to see they slave exploiting, materialistic scumbags go down - I do not want to have to let some of my staff go if they go tits up.

I have had another bad debt this week for 13k and I doubt I will see a penny of that.

Business is getting tough...

Saturday, November 28, 2009 12:13PM Report Comment

13. alan said...

The money at stake is not big in arab terms. I think this could be a jerk of the dog-lead to bring the developers into line. Some of the showy ostentation isn't going down too well with the fundamentalist religeous leaders and that could have a backlash on the middle east governments.

For footballer punters, they can take the hit without noticing. For other punters Do buy has become Don't buy.

Saturday, November 28, 2009 12:17PM Report Comment

14. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.


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