Friday, Oct 09, 2009

Whole Lotta Rosie

Zero Hedge: A V shaped recovery

A favourite bear explaning that EVEN assuming the bulls are right about the recovery the markets are still overvalued from just about every perspective.

Posted by bellwether @ 03:21 PM (3012 views)
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41 Comments

1. flashman said...

Buying stocks is a bit like buying your kid a school blazer, that’s two sizes too big. The kid gets picked on (by the P/E bullies) for having badly fitting clothes and then two years later it fits. Three years later it’s too small, so you buy another one that’s two sizes too big. Rinse repeat. It doesn’t matter if it goes wrong because all the big stock purchases are done with someone else’s money and the fees and commissions have already been banked.

Also, there is a new twist courtesy of QE and low interest rates. If you are connected, you can borrow huge amounts of low interest money. You use it to buy a shed load of shares. If they go up, you clean up. If they tank you don’t bother paying the money back. Job’s a good ‘un

On behalf of the city I would like to sincerely thank the BOE and the FSA for there help in creating this new wheeze

Friday, October 9, 2009 05:12PM Report Comment
 

2. flashman said...

hey bellwether. a typo (their)

Friday, October 9, 2009 05:14PM Report Comment
 

3. devo said...

@ 1. flashman said... On behalf of the city I would like to sincerely thank the BOE and the FSA for there help in creating this new wheeze.

You were given enough rope and lo and behold, you hung yourself.

Friday, October 9, 2009 06:46PM Report Comment
 

4. flashman said...

It's just a blog devo

Friday, October 9, 2009 07:14PM Report Comment
 

5. techieman said...

...so after having read it - i absolutely agree. The risk is to the upside but the risk to the bearish case is the mom and pop retail buyers being sucked in. Unless its a new paradigm of course.....

Friday, October 9, 2009 07:29PM Report Comment
 

6. flashman said...

devo: I know you're an angry dude..and I respect that but can I ask you a question without risking your ire?

Did you not suspect that I was using irony or did you think I was genuinely celebrating the dubiously earned profits? Please indulge me just this once. What was your thought process?

I find this blogging thing fascinating. I only recently realised how seriously people take it. Do you vent your (rightful) social indignation elsewhere or is this your main outlet? It's a genuine question. I'm really curious.

Friday, October 9, 2009 07:36PM Report Comment
 

7. techieman said...

to be fair to devo flash it is difficult to tell when someone is being ironic in the written prose. For the record i thought you were, but that was based on you're prior comments - i didnt think you were that much of an idiot, to give it the "loads of money" when people in the big wide world are struggling. You dont strike me as someone without compassion.

The difference between people with money being ar5ewipes and being cool is how they handle it. People get upset when you ram it down their throat - and i think thats right. Having said that if you come from nuffin you know what its like to be there and you want to avoid that like the plague.

BUT of course there's two sides to that. Wear a saville row suit and handmade shoes and you are flaunting it. Wear an M&S machine washable suit and you are tight, whats it to be?

Friday, October 9, 2009 07:45PM Report Comment
 

8. flashman said...

techie: Obviously it was meant to be ironic but I don't blame devo at all for taking it the wrong way. Like you say, its easy to get the wrong end if the stick on a blog. In a way, blogging is a new social frontier.

I don't earn a penny from stock trading and have never been involved in that aspect of the biz. Like I said in a past post, I think the managed fund business is diabolical and the people involved in it are the epitome of swaggering city folk. I come across them every day.

Are you working now? I'm looking after the kids while my wife is out on the town. Another new social frontier

Friday, October 9, 2009 08:02PM Report Comment
 

9. flashman said...

techie: completely off topic but the office has recently been kitted out with new screens. They are 1900 X 1200 but they have some sort of clever pivot that makes them portrait format. I normally don't care about these things but you can get 3 larger screens into the space that 2 smaller screens took up. The best thing is web work. The 1200 dots across is enough for all web pages but the 1900 dots down means you never have to scroll. I took a couple of them home. I thought you might benefit from that? I don't normally pay much attention to these things but it is a serious improvement

Friday, October 9, 2009 08:10PM Report Comment
 

10. techieman said...

re the screens - unless of course you wanted to meet up and treat me to one of 'em?

Friday, October 9, 2009 08:20PM Report Comment
 

11. techieman said...

Flash thanks for thinking of me but the setup i have does me ok. I am a bit of a maverick in that respect. For a while i used to get home and enter the daily OHLC into a charting package for loads of different markets. People thought i was nuts! So its a bit of quantum leap for me looking at charts updating on screens in real time. Remember the screens were really the death of the pit traders so im not exactly keen to embrace too much tech.

Am i working? Not really - i have an S&P position on - short obviously, which is giving me a good kicking - but Im quite cool with that, i am more worried about missing some downside than being stopped with a bloody nose. On the other hand i thought yesterdays move in cable was a bit of a technical bear squeeze - and i sold some more @ 1.61 figure.

Im looking at the S&P and wondering how much pain im willing to take, as you know thats the difficult part - managing your losses - the profits - to an extent take care of themselves.

Friday, October 9, 2009 08:20PM Report Comment
 

12. techieman said...

i posted 10 after 11 - odd! It keeps doing that lately,

Friday, October 9, 2009 08:22PM Report Comment
 

13. flashman said...

The wife has already snagged one. Otherwise I'd be happy to meet up and hand one off the back of my transit!

I would be very nervous of a short position on the S&P. The guys I know who work the S&P contracts pay a great deal of attention to the bond market. Did you see the horrible fall in the bonds today? It might not mean much because its Columbus Day coming up but on balance I think it does means something. They seem to be drawing a deep breath for another push up in the US. I don't know if its your style but I'd consider a stop and reverse. The DOW will never get anywhere near 10000 without serious nerves so I think you can get another shorting op soon

Friday, October 9, 2009 08:33PM Report Comment
 

14. techieman said...

flash thanks for the tip, but i will respectfully ignore it.[not being rude or not even thinking you are wrong] Re the stop and reverse, no i wouldnt do that. I think a market goes somewhere if its wrong i take my medicine and look at another market or look again. I made a comment about FTSe to STR2007 - saying i was sidelined because it didnt "look" right to go short. So my S&P trade is a dip the toe in the water for the sharks to bite it off. To be honest i am being early here with smallish size and biggish stop, if it went right i would look to add FTSE / DAX / CAC / SMI.... well you get the idea. Its a fair point re the T-Bonds.

I have actually reduced the size of my S&P position with losses on the way up, and it looks like its gonna close near the highs, of the day and week, so i might pare it a bit more - but not much. Stubbornness i spose!

Friday, October 9, 2009 08:42PM Report Comment
 

15. techieman said...

.... anyway it doesn't do me any good to be right all the time!!!! :-)

Friday, October 9, 2009 08:43PM Report Comment
 

16. techieman said...

dont worry - the cable position is alot bigger.Basis Dec -@1.6568, +1.5970/ 1.5875 (half) -@ 1.6115 (as i posted) [so short a full position @ 1.6341] and then another half unit @ 1.6100.

And cable looks absolute rubbish to me closing near the lows dailies and weeklies and hit the downward sloping trendline yesterday at the highs and key reversed today.... break of 1.5770 early next week and i will be looking for 1.5500 - although i MIGHT take some profits before it hits the 1.5770 support .... just in case.

Course might be wrong but.... thats futures

Friday, October 9, 2009 08:54PM Report Comment
 

17. flashman said...

To be honest most of my market 'information' comes from chatting over a beer. Its not really my area. I'm amazed that the indexes have got this far because the mood definitely soured almost 2 months ago. Its a bit like after Xmas when everyone in the city started to seriously perk up. The financial press were none the wiser until May. I wonder if these guys ever step out of their offices. They could learn a lot by visiting a few bars at lunchtime

Friday, October 9, 2009 08:55PM Report Comment
 

18. techieman said...

whoops must be late that 1.6341 is obviously wrong. but really i see myself short @ 1.6568 and 1.61 with a jobing profit of matching the 1.5970 and 1.5875 with the 1.6115. ./.. well you know what i mean! - hope sarahs not watching.

Friday, October 9, 2009 09:01PM Report Comment
 

19. techieman said...

yes flash - i was surprised that FTSE got above 4520 basis spot, but when i did i really thought we would go much higher to around this sort of area - as i said i would be happy to see the 5200s in FTSE to complete the picture. That would be a new high since the March low, but i thought that the S&P would be a non confirming market - hence the short!

Did i ever tell you i started as a blue button on the LSE floor jobbing traded options?

Friday, October 9, 2009 09:06PM Report Comment
 

20. flashman said...

didn't see your post @16. Obviously currency is more my bag so I'm pretty sure you'll do well with that one. I am carefully watching the rearguard action to boost the Dollar. The BOJ is up to its old tricks again and they are the best currency manipulators in the game.

Incidentally, I was making a serious point @1. Its amazing how many factors can conspire to help the market ignore the fundamentals. Like you say, the mom and pop investors are svery vulnerable to a shafting

Friday, October 9, 2009 09:07PM Report Comment
 

21. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.

 

22. braindeed said...

@8. flashman said...

In a way, blogging is a new social frontier.

Perhaps, perhaps.

It certainly has enormous potential, the snag would seem to be that the majority of people have pretty set opinions (usually along party lines) – the floaters are the fulcrum around which the election results spin. A lot of those same floaters would seem to be swayed by the flimsiest of reasons and are hardly the sort to ruminate on obtuse points that requires soul searching. The Red Tops are easier to digest for the floaters, and I think that the ‘floaters’ are held in similar contempt by most ‘thinking’ voters. I think perhaps the most devastating and often used weapon is abstention – so in terms of the power of the blog, I would imagine gaining the respect from ‘opponents’ is just about as good as it gets.
It would be useful if there were enough moderators (but who’d pay) to judge on points of order too – and paradoxically (for me, many would say) I believe that if politeness were the order of the day, then the debates may be of a higher standard…….as stated, it can be devilishly hard to determine an ironic twist at times in prose.

Friday, October 9, 2009 09:13PM Report Comment
 

23. techieman said...

Flash have you read the article? Thats not meant to be confrontational. its actually quite a good one. Mentions that the volume is p1ss poor and the p/es are outside the enveloppe for where we are in the cycle. Right nasty close - for the bears - in the S&Ps still 5th up day running so maybe we are a bit overbought and i can finesse whats left. BTW i was short a few days ago too @ 1050 and liquidated most @ 1020, with the last quarter at b/even - so not too bad.

To be honest i am expecting to make a big profit on the downside eventually, but you have to kiss alot of frogs before you meet a prince or is that dogs and princes? Have a good one Flash.

Friday, October 9, 2009 09:17PM Report Comment
 

24. flashman said...

Magic days. Some of the most fun characters started out as blue buttons. "Over here blue, over here!" When did it all stop? It's amazing how long ago it all was. Time flies

Friday, October 9, 2009 09:20PM Report Comment
 

25. devo said...

O wad some Power the giftie gie us
To see oursels as ithers see us!

Friday, October 9, 2009 09:23PM Report Comment
 

26. braindeed said...

Wee, sleek, cowering, timorous beast, O, what panic is in thy breast! Thou need not start away so hasty......

Friday, October 9, 2009 09:30PM Report Comment
 

27. braindeed said...

Oh dear - should have read:

Wee, sleekit˚, cowrin˚, tim'rous beastie,
O, what a panic's in thy breastie!
Thou need na˚ start awa sae˚ hasty

I'll get my coat

Friday, October 9, 2009 09:34PM Report Comment
 

28. devo said...

touché

Friday, October 9, 2009 09:35PM Report Comment
 

29. flashman said...

braindeed: I have often struggled (understatement) with web etiquette but I am slowly getting the hang of it. I think it is impossible to avoid the odd flair-up but I think we could all try to forgive and forget a bit quicker. HPC blood is thicker than water and all that

I haven't voted since my student days in the early 80's. I have often wondered whether this is a kop out but perhaps you are right when you say that abstention is the ultimate weapon. In a way I would like to vote for someone because it must be comforting to "believe". It'll have to wait because I can't bring myself to vote this time

Friday, October 9, 2009 09:38PM Report Comment
 

30. flashman said...

titanic: I couldn't point to a safe currency because everything we know is already priced in. If a currency was thought to be a safer bet going forward, the price would adjust immediately. Sorry, not very helpful, I know

Friday, October 9, 2009 09:43PM Report Comment
 

31. braindeed said...

flashman@ 29
In a way I would like to vote for someone because it must be comforting to "believe"

You're not alone .....I'm older and feel like abstaining for the first time .....they'd have been maning the barracades in Old Vienna now.
We've got Dancing on Ice

Friday, October 9, 2009 09:47PM Report Comment
 

32. devo said...

I've always felt myself above politics.

Friday, October 9, 2009 10:11PM Report Comment
 

33. devo said...

Indeed, after a delightful medium-rare fillet steak accompanied by a robust red and enjoyed with a young friend, I feel inclined to pronounce:

I am fire and air; my other elements
I give to baser life.


And yet here I am on HPC.

just a blog? I think not!

Friday, October 9, 2009 10:28PM Report Comment
 

34. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.

 

35. bidin'matime said...

krusty, if you're being picky, it's '80s...

Friday, October 9, 2009 11:18PM Report Comment
 

36. krustyatemyhamster said...

Good point bidin'matime. One hours self flagellation for me.

Friday, October 9, 2009 11:25PM Report Comment
 

37. krustyatemyhamster said...

Sorry, that should that be one hour's

Friday, October 9, 2009 11:25PM Report Comment
 

38. taffee said...

flashman

Looks like you were spot on with sp500! and dow.......won't last imo

Saturday, October 10, 2009 08:13AM Report Comment
 

39. tyrellcorporation said...

Do I win the big monitor competition? Twin 30" HPs (2x 2560x1600 pixels)

Hussar!

Saturday, October 10, 2009 11:12AM Report Comment
 

40. doom&gloom said...

Any idea on the manufacturer of those screens & brackets? I've been thinking for some time about a large screen for home which can swivel portrait/landscape for working/entertainment. A large HD screen positioned vertically is ideal for reading pages, and horizontally for video. Don't know why this isn't a more popular home setup.

Saturday, October 10, 2009 01:38PM Report Comment
 

41. flashman said...

Hi doom&gloom

Yes, that's how I've been using them at home.

They are NEC MultiSync LCD2490WUXi².

Saturday, October 10, 2009 04:05PM Report Comment
 

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