Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Unemployment Up but Not by Much

UK Unemployment Goes Up to 2.47m

The latest official UK unemployment figure has risen once again, but the rate of increase has narrowed. - Is this because of McBroon's recovery or because companies don't really lay people of over the summer months?

Posted by need-a-crash @ 10:37 AM (1818 views)
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14 thoughts on “Unemployment Up but Not by Much

  • little professor says:

    That’s a bizarre title for the BBC article:

    “Growth in UK unemployment slows”

    Also like this from the ONS report:

    “The employment rate for people of working age was 72.6% in the three months to August 2009. The unemployment rate was 7.9%.”
    Just shows you how much the incapacity claimants etc mess up the headline figures.

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  • How do they count those in full time education?

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  • So, the BBC reckons that the onward march of unemployment is slowing….

    The private sector has been trimming their workforce, pushing for voluntary redundancies and shelving hiring for the last 12 months or so. With respect to the drop in global trade, this is totally expected and predictable. We are not facing unemployment figures like those of Spain and Ireland yet because the public sector WILL be protected until after the next election.

    It has been said here on many occasions by several posters that a major downturn is due after May 2010 …..

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  • The 1200 my company are getting rid of – 90 day consultation begun in Sept, just after people got back from holidays – are going in December so won’t show up in the numbers until early in the new year.

    That’s 1200 who won’t be participaing in Spring Bounce 2010 then …

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  • cat and canary says:

    7.9% instead of 8.0% and all of a sudden the media are hinting about a turning point in the jobs market….blimey, 0.1% is about 30,000-35,000 jobs difference. Considering the UK is losing jobs at a rate of 1000 per day I wouldn’t read too much into the data

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  • Notbuyingoneyet says:

    Where I work we laid off 10% of our worldwide staff last year (about 350 people). We lost about 100 in the UK. Our total recruitment in the last 10 months = 1 permanent, 2 temps. Green shoots! All is well!

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  • Mark Wadsworth says:

    Hmm. 2.47 million? Isn’t there some magic tipping point at 2.75 million? Not sure if that was Techieman or Flashman who came up with that theory.

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  • JSA only runs for maximum 6 consequitive months and thereafter the claimant drops off the numbers board – I have a friend who will have been out of work for 6 months in November 2009 and and he’s already been told precisely when his JSA will end. He will be making a claim for income support and as he’s still going to be unemployed I’d be curious to learn precisely how he’s then going to be counted in the Stats (if at all?)

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  • Jack C – You can claim JSA for as long as necessary – there is no cut off point at which you go on to something else. To illustrate – if oyu look at the source of the figures you can have a breakdown of duration of claims which goes up to ‘Over 260 weeks’!

    The only gap in using claimant count to measure unemployment is that it doesn’t include those people who don’t register, and there are a proportion who don’t expect to be out of work long so don’t register in the first place.

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  • cynicalsoothsayer says:

    You can ‘claim’ JSA but you may not be given anything after 6 months other than NI credits if you’ve saved more than £8k, eg a deposit on a house.

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  • Chrisb – thanks for the response and input – I believe NI Contribution based JSA will run max 26 weeks thereafter income based (means tested) JSA should be available (in the case of my friend – as per previous post) and as you say in theory this could run on indefinitely.

    Here is the latest from my region – Production of Newcastle Brown Ale is set to cease on Tyneside after its owners announced plans to close their brewery in Gateshead next year. Full story @ news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/tyne/8304274.stm

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  • ontheotherhand says:

    Remember, it’s 7.9% of the ‘economically active’ and excludes a lot of people. The number of economically inactive people of working age rose by 50,000 over the quarter and by 80,000 over the year to reach 7.97 million. Those who want a job but have not been seeking work in the last four weeks are ‘economically inactive’ rather than unemployed, for example. Add to this the 10% of part time workers who only do that because they can’t get a full-time job (760,000 of them) and you get a feeling for the loss in economic activity.

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  • There could be another factor at work (hoho): if you have been on benefit / JSA 6 months and you are married (or have a partner?) who is working you lose entitlement to benefit. Therefore do you stop signing on and fall out of the unemployment figures?

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