Friday, Oct 23, 2009

Roubini

Business Insider: A Big Crash is Coming

Roubini believes a big crash is coming and that a 'wall of liquidity is chasing all kinds of assets. He's been right all along. I am inclined to agree with him

Posted by britishblue @ 11:53 PM (5836 views)
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27 Comments

1. mander said...

Moment of truth will come. If assests are no longer inflating for the simple reason that they have lost touch with reality is then capitalism going to survive?
Unlimited and fast money creation has helped inflating assests without much effort but now it looks like this success formula is no longer working.

Saturday, October 24, 2009 12:11AM Report Comment
 

2. devo said...

pre-ordinated plan... central banks... goldman sachs...

Hey,

lighten up!

It's time for house!!!

Deadmau5: i remember
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1rXELKINhQ

Saturday, October 24, 2009 12:34AM Report Comment
 

3. devo said...

no?

ok

for all you old skool ravers!!!!!

zero b - lock up

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkfwoAr-zPI

Saturday, October 24, 2009 01:02AM Report Comment
 

4. crunchy said...

Roubini fails to mention a dollar crash as another reason.

IMHO a dollar crash is a done deal and that will lead to panic and hyperinflation. Holding gold as money is making more sense by the day.

Ask the Chinese! I also think gold can go much higher than $2000.

Roubini or Crunchy? Let's wait and see.

Saturday, October 24, 2009 01:51AM Report Comment
 

5. devo said...

back to life, back to reality


i'm comin' down


and the world still hasn't been fixed.


where are you god?

Saturday, October 24, 2009 01:59AM Report Comment
 

6. crunchy said...

5. devo

I love the way Roubini goes back on everything he says at the end of the article.

Very statesman like.

Saturday, October 24, 2009 02:03AM Report Comment
 

7. devo said...

dat's cruel in my state of mind crunchy

superficially without prejudice off the cuff etc

de rien

what does the dark ages look like in the twenty-first century?

Saturday, October 24, 2009 02:11AM Report Comment
 

8. devo said...

i just gotta share the love

Out There - Friends Of Matthew

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4vZqpEnF30&feature=related

Saturday, October 24, 2009 02:36AM Report Comment
 

9. devo said...

A smoochie for the ladies...

night night

Twin Hype ---- Do It To The Crowd

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_iPePvhnEM&feature=related

Saturday, October 24, 2009 02:53AM Report Comment
 

10. crunchy said...

Enjoy your break devo!

Saturday, October 24, 2009 03:07AM Report Comment
 

11. devo said...

no break for me crunchy

i think while i sleep

Saturday, October 24, 2009 03:09AM Report Comment
 

12. crunchy said...

lol

Much better that way around!

"night night."

Saturday, October 24, 2009 03:23AM Report Comment
 

13. Drumhead said...

To alleviate your misery, and for those who are waiting for that 30-50% drop in the house price, I'll help you with some analysis and point out some facts important facts for you to decide:

1. The UK house price has had a fall of approx. 50% in April 2009. You would have thought that I'm just joking. It's actually quite simple. House price fell approx 20% + pounds fell 30% remember? So you may have got your predictions right and may well be missing the boat as well.

2. UK cannot escape the globalisation effects of the world. None of the countries in the world managed to do that. Even China, Russia. And that's why unemployment in UK hasn't been such an impact to the House price. To the rest of the world, UK house price was at a discount of 50%! At current market price, it is still significantly cheaper than before.

3. Your Cash is just going to loose it's value very quickly, and I do mean very quickly. You don't have to look at the inflation report to know this. BOE have told you that they've printed tonnes of money and have you not listen? Well they call it 'Quantitative Easing'. All can tell you is that the printing press has been running on full speed like never before. 175bn pounds! That's about 25k per working UK citizen if they were to distribute it evenly. Cash or Asset? You make the pick!

4. The projected number of new homes built this year is about 75000-95000. I cannot recall a year, over the passed few years, that the government has met the target of 250000 new houses. Demand and Supply?

5. At this moment in time, I would advice you to safe guard your wealth (And I don't mean Cash). If you don't want a house, then use your money to clear your debts. You know that you're doing well if you're not loosing. Winning is a tall order. Minimising your loss is the key.

Hope this helps.

Saturday, October 24, 2009 08:34AM Report Comment
 

14. Steviedee said...

I've got another slant on this.. I've been away.. wearing my foil hat for the last few years.. Well.. I'm back to say that the Stock Market will crash in mid to late November 2009. I say this for one major reason: Astrology. But I will use some example to illustrate my claims that can be clearly seen on the internet or using specialist programmes.

1. On September 11th 2001. Saturn Opposed Pluto in House 3 (Communications) & House 9 (Travel & Philosophy) (using Aries as House 1: You/Earth).

2. Around November 13th-15th 2009, Saturn Squares Pluto in House 7 (Relationships - Close, confidante-like relationships. Marriage and business partners. Agreements and treaties. Matters dealing with diplomatic relations of all kinds, including open (known) enemies. Attraction to qualities we admire from the other partner.)

&

House 10 (Social Status -Ambitions. Motivations. Career. Status in society. Government. Authority. Father or father figure. The breadwinner of the household. One's public appearance/impression at large(audience).)

So looking at the relationship, and Uranus opposing Saturn next year.. flip-flopping with Saturn as with the Pluto Sqaure Saturn flip-flopping as well. We will see some fireworks.. Incidentally Uranus is in House 1 (Self/Earth) and House 7 (Relationships). Uranus is usually related to unexpected events.

So it is in the stars and is no secret to the powers who control us.

Saturday, October 24, 2009 11:13AM Report Comment
 

15. techieman said...

"Roubini fails to mention a dollar crash as another reason.

IMHO a dollar crash is a done deal and that will lead to panic and hyperinflation. Holding gold as money is making more sense by the day.

Ask the Chinese! I also think gold can go much higher than $2000.

Roubini or Crunchy? Let's wait and see."

He doesn't mention it because its not a reason. And because although he actually is a dollar bear - hes not that confident in that stance. [he has predicted the demise of the dollar as the reserve currency : http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/14/opinion/14Roubini.html ] So im not sure his view on the dollar is misaligned with the crunch anyway!!!

Trend turning times often catch the trend followers by surprise. Actually i am surprised that a technical trader would even postulate how long a trend continues. Surely you just run it until the indicator says to re-e-verse. In other words a deflation (which he is backing - well thats arguable re the credit deflation which is where the real demand for dollars would be) will in my view, increase the demand for dollars - thats why we had a rise in the greenback commensurate with the major sell off in markets and thats why we have had a sell off in the $ with the rise in the markets.

Yes the $ was overbought, and was due a sell off (Roubini got that right) . Soon it will reverse for a move back up when the secondary falls in the stock markets take hold. Once that happens commodity prices will fall in value - because of the deflation and/or because they are denominated in dollars.

If you listen and watch Dr Doom he can provide fundamental support for his view. Of course the timing of the moves is the difficult issue. In that respect the EUR ($) in particular looks very very toppy.

Even if I am wrong that we have a EUR / $ MAJOR top in place - which is possible (i.e. that we dont have a MAJOR top soon) - i would be astonished if we don't have a interim top within the next few days / weeks - with a big sell off in the Euro.

I am not saying this to "talk my book" - I have a reasonably large Gold holding - which i bought in days gone by and which i sold a fair bit of around the March 08 (prior) top. So yes i think a gold holding should be had - just in case. That doesnt mean i am convinced of its ability to rise in value from here. Again i concur with the good doctor. I am also long of cash Euros (effectively) against the pound. Although thats really just part of a basket cash holding - i have swiss too, plus a couple of others.

Interesting that people have such polarised views on the currencies. Is that a surprise - nope. Although you can agree or disagree with the bullish or bearish dollar stance the one thing that is difficult to argue is that currency and commodity price movements do not indicate underlying strengths and weaknesses in economies. Is there a relation to HP?

Well yes there is. Now what the relationship is is where it gets complicated .... innit.

Saturday, October 24, 2009 12:23PM Report Comment
 

16. crunchy said...

Tech it is very simples.

The Federal Reserve are dumping dollars.

Sometimes it is like talking to a kid.

Don't worry I will remind you when it happens.

You can count on that! Swiss bonds mate innit.

Saturday, October 24, 2009 01:01PM Report Comment
 

17. crunchy said...

http://truthfund.wordpress.com/2009/10/14/federal-reserve-bets-on-dollar-to-fail/

Saturday, October 24, 2009 01:47PM Report Comment
 

18. crunchy said...

tech and then there is the dollar/oil thingy.

Saturday, October 24, 2009 01:50PM Report Comment
 

19. techieman said...

so le crunch no one can disagree with you? Now THATS a bit childish. You or i may be right or you or i may be wrong.

But a NWO analysis dont wash with me, if thats what you believe... then thats what you believe and you are entitled to that opinion. If you want to provide some eloquent reasoning to support your position then go ahead....oh hang on i know "whats the point?" right?

Re your links, whats known is known and probably discounted. YES you are right if you asked most people if the dollar was going to go down then they would agree with you - its a continuation of a "rampant" trend. The majority are right the majority of the time..... but.... at turning points they are wrong.

Of course if I am wrong you are welcome to ram it down my throat (im not really that bothered to be honest) - but its dangerous to be unequivocal and even more so to report that as if its undeniable truth to people on any forum. All i am saying to you is that as a trader following MACD it shouldn't worry you as to what the fundementals tell you, which is why i am surprised you take such a polarised view. Of course you are entitled to a view.

As for oil i spose thats gonna be a$600 a barrel? A quick breakout recently as on the cards, but that to me (and i have no position) looks like a quick suck, of course we are going to disagree on that as well because if the dollar evaporates, then all commodities in $ terms go to the moon. As for Oil when you called it before (correctly) i never said you were wrong - just i was unsure of where to get in / out and where to put a stop, and yes whether the move back up would be worthwhile to get in (i had played the downside from near the top to the mid $50s).

I just go elsewhere...other markets.... i apply the old adage "when in doubt - stay out". I sleep better because of it :-).

Have a good w/end crunchy.

Saturday, October 24, 2009 02:21PM Report Comment
 

20. crunchy said...

tech.

I don't really mind anyone disagreeing. Hey, it's your money.

May your longs go up and your shorts down! (very childish)

Have a good w/end techieman and stay off the "E" numbers..

.

Saturday, October 24, 2009 02:29PM Report Comment
 

21. estrader said...

I recommend that people watch this video, I know that comparisons to 1929 are a bit cliche but this video is very good and well worth around 53min of your life. What makes it more interesting is that it was made in the early-mid 1990's ie BEFORE this current crisis. Pay attention to what the narrator and people interviewd were saying then and how prophetic their words were. Like they say "Those who fail to learn from History are doomed to repeat it"

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7233622324068640582&ei=mh_jSraFH42a2wLr4oCyCg&q=the+crash+of+1929#

Saturday, October 24, 2009 04:49PM Report Comment
 

22. braindeed said...

and a little social comment from the beautifully named Goldman Sacks ...aka The Thievery Corporation (or is that the other way round?)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xAJVri2a1U&feature=PlayList&p=5A1EC4A6A1623779&index=4

Saturday, October 24, 2009 06:55PM Report Comment
 

23. smugdog said...

"Besides being invisible, your Highness, this cloth will be woven in colors and patterns created especially for you." The emperor gave the two men a bag of gold coins in exchange for their promise to begin working on the fabric immediately.

Saturday, October 24, 2009 06:56PM Report Comment
 

24. braindeed said...

Jeez, it's getting chilly in da room

Saturday, October 24, 2009 06:59PM Report Comment
 

25. crunchy said...

19. Thanks, Good find.

The more I learn the surer I am. The surer I am the more people doubt me.

Sunday, October 25, 2009 12:53AM Report Comment
 

26. charlie brooker said...

When I see Roubini's face I'm reminded of Susan Boyle of Britain's Got Talent fame, when I see his name I think of Wayne Rooney.

I must stop reading trashy newspapers.

Yesterday I was having a haircut. During the conversation with girl cutting my I thought I'd mentioned Lord Griffiths's comments from earlier this week (Lord Griffiths, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs, who told the public it would have to get used to banker's bonuses).

My barber's response was "Oh". She immediately followed that up with "Do you watch X-Factor?"

I'm almost tempted to say that some people deserve to be victims.

Sunday, October 25, 2009 11:30AM Report Comment
 

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