Thursday, Oct 29, 2009

'M25' market shuts shop for Winter

The Times: House price mini-boom slows as Christmas looms

A surprisingly sombre report. "The unexpected “mini-boom” in house prices continued in September, according to the latest official figures, but analysts have said that a slowdown in the pace of the recent rebound has begun ... estate agents have said that the strong performance is confined to London and the South East and to prime country houses. The head of one UK estate agency said: “The recovery is inside the M25. The market outside, in the real world of one-bedroom and two-bedroom flats, has not changed.”

Posted by quiet guy @ 09:14 AM (1169 views)
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1. tudorian said...

Flats here is Bristol are not being sold in any significant numbers.
One bedroom rabbit hutches in new build blocks start here at £125,00 (That's the starting price in in an acceptable area). I've had a look around a couple of developments recently (I cant afford to buy yet and I'm not managing to save a penny in the current climate) and I'm really not impressed..... Ther are generally three (sometimes 4) pokey rooms and a hall way.

There have been some slight falls in rental prices, the unsold stock has not as yet made it on to the rental market. Many developments have been left unfinished for the last 2 years and there is no real new development started (save that using public money)

The Eastern Europeans have cancelled their gym memberships, judging by the lack of people attending (my gym anyway) and my business is just ticking over at the moment, barely enough to pay the bill, but no real borrowing (luckily)

Three bedroom semi's in the city seem to be selling, I know a couple of property flippers (they say they are developers !) who are back in the market and stalking the auctions (I have been told that the auctions are busy)

The market is dysfunctional at the moment, There are limited homes available and too many flats. Decent stock is being snapped up by cash / debt rich speculators, and sold on to cash / debt rich idiots.

Still more falls to come soon ! I can't believe that there is enough money or appetite for debt to support this situation

Thursday, October 29, 2009 09:38AM Report Comment

2. timmy t said...

"...strong performance is confined to London and the South East and to prime country houses". I know that Haliwide adjust their indices seasonally and for mix but does anyone know if this includes geography? If a larger than normal proportion of houses selling are in the SE where prices are higher then this would push averages up.

Thursday, October 29, 2009 10:15AM Report Comment

3. 51ck-6-51x said...

timmy t
- The mix performed by Nationwide may be seen here ( starting on page 4 ), it includes location in the adjustment to form a "typical" house.
Halifax uses a very similar methodology ( again including location ), here is Google's html version of their Word doc.

Land registry is a simple average - since they do not need to perform such a detailed analysis as a lender they will naturally have less information to use to mix adjust, but you can see breakdown by locations in their reports.

Thursday, October 29, 2009 11:15AM Report Comment

4. timmy t said...

Thanks 6's. I never knew they only included owner occupied - you live and learn!
I wonder if anyone anywhere is tracking actual houses. I guess it would be possible to use Land registry data to track every individual transaction and although each one would only change hands very rarely, I guess it would be possible to tot them all up to track actual value changes. Not sure if that would make interesting reading or just be a dull statistical exercise.

Thursday, October 29, 2009 12:07PM Report Comment

5. inbreda said...

@1 tudorian - count yourself lucky. Down here a decent flat starts at about £250k to £300k.

Thursday, October 29, 2009 12:32PM Report Comment

6. tudorian said...


gulp !
there are area with those sorts of prices in Brissle. However, you could get a nice place in the Chew Valley / Mendips with a bit of land for that !

Thursday, October 29, 2009 04:02PM Report Comment

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