Thursday, Oct 15, 2009

HPC's preferred measure also rising?

Times: Auction house prices soar over guide values

Homes sold at auction are achieving record sums above the guide amounts set by valuers as lower property prices have brought about a bidding war among bargain-hunters.
Graham Barton, senior auctioneer for Westcountry Property Auctions and a presenter on BBC One’s Homes under the Hammer, said: “These are the biggest margins over guide I can remember in 30 years in the industry. In a recession these results are amazing. "

Posted by little professor @ 01:45 AM (2141 views)
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1. crunchy said...

I have always thought guide prices should be outlawed they mean nothing as they are misleading advertising at best.

A reserve price is quiet another thing altogether.

Thursday, October 15, 2009 02:04AM Report Comment

2. letsgetreadytotumble said...

Methinks our Graham is getting a bit carried away.
I was at the last auction, and no such thing happened.
Check out

Thursday, October 15, 2009 04:30AM Report Comment

3. drewster said...

The crunch is right. Guide prices are meaningless. Our preferred metric is auction selling price compared to normal (via estate agent) selling price. Call me cynical, but aren't guide prices set deliberately low in order to drum up interest and encourage would-be buyers to attend the auctions?

Thursday, October 15, 2009 06:10AM Report Comment

4. crunchy said...

If any traders read my AUD/USD tip yesterday you have made some money already, if you know what you are doing.

Techie, never say The Crunch gives nothing away. lol

Thursday, October 15, 2009 07:57AM Report Comment

5. will said...

A fool parts easily with his cash....

Thursday, October 15, 2009 08:08AM Report Comment

6. will said...

I have a friend who buys cars for a living from the big auction houses. He has said for many years that the private buyers at the auctions usually pay around 'retail selling price' for the cars and not trade prices. It seems that for many, the fact they have bought from an auction makes them feel they have bagged a bargain.

Thursday, October 15, 2009 08:26AM Report Comment

7. Bunn123 said...

Agree with Will @6.
I am a furniture dealer who buys from auctions and it is amazing what the private buyers will pay

Thursday, October 15, 2009 08:59AM Report Comment

8. crunchy said...

will, It's worse than that.

The stock, like property auctions are normally less than desirable. Scratched high mileage lease cars.

The smart car traders buy the very best from private sellers and whack on a big mark up for the polish and warranty.

There is nothing like an ignorant car or house buyer.

Thursday, October 15, 2009 09:08AM Report Comment

9. techieman said...

Le Crunch @ 4 - "Traders should be eyeballing the AUD/USD. : ) Become the exploiter not the exploited." was your comment.

As i said its a bit like a cold reading. did crunchy mean buy the Aussie or buy the Dollar? Im not trying to rain on your parade but of course if you said i would buy the AUD @ around 9100 and look for a target of say 9200 or 9300 or whatever then fair enough. Seee now you can say you meant the Aussie - but if it had topped out yesterday?? Yep you could have said i meant the USD. Ambiguity reigns.

All i am saying is if you want to say buy the aussie, then say it :-).

In any case its not much of a move compared with some of the other pairs against the dollar - the £ has indeed taken on a new lease of life over the past couple of days. Particularly against the dollar. Me? Yep had a short pound position most of which had been liquidated before i was stopped out of the remainder yesterday.

I think the dollar is now looking very oversold - and technically the Eur in partcular looks ripe for a correction (at the least) sometime "soon". Now as for what "soon" means i agree thats a bit of a crunchieism. ;-) Impersonation is the greatest form of flattery .... perhaps!

Thursday, October 15, 2009 09:17AM Report Comment

10. crunchy said...

8. techieman

I am starting to worry about you. I also said traders that know what they are doing. AUD/USD has been in a rampant uptrend of late. ; )

Might be something to do with interest rates!

Buy the dips in an uptrend in case you have now forgotten the basics and trust your indicators.

Sorry you missed it! You really need to take a break from stocks there is healthier action elsewhere.

Sorry to hear about the stop out as well. You should look at your daily charts first if you need a reminder.

Thursday, October 15, 2009 09:55AM Report Comment

11. crunchy said...

We all need a kick from time to time.

Thursday, October 15, 2009 10:08AM Report Comment

12. doomwatch said...

Why would anyone want to buy a place in Cornwall. It's full of locals moaning about high how prices tourists, and "incomers". Talk about biting the hand that feeds. The roads are sh1t & usually takes and hour to drive 10 miles.

Thursday, October 15, 2009 10:18AM Report Comment

13. techieman said...

hey crunch

Thanks for the concern - its misplaced. I do know that the Aussie has been in a rampant uptrend ( i can read a chart) and also am aware of the rise in Aussie I rates (i actually posted something on that). However that doesn't mean someone - eg you might think that that uptrend is coming to an end.

As for the stop, i thought that we had finished the first leg of the cable downmove, so really the rest (about 10% of my initial position) i held was just in case that was wrong. So yes i was stopped out but still with a 4.5 cent profit on those, the rest had between 7 and 8 cents profit. However i do see more legs to come. i.e. $ appreciating against the £ - but where to go short is the question.

As for indicators the RSI is v overbought on the Aussie.

As for the "if you know what you are doing" then why would you need a tip? Its too ambiguous my friend. As for Stocks and healthier action, you are right stocks are more difficult to call, they are "back and fill" markets whereas commodities and forex are normally a bit more trendy. But thats where the challenge is imo. Calling a top, a target (rather than relying on a trailing expo average), assessing movements is much more rewarding in an intellectual sense.

You may well be right other markets may offer better / easier opportunities but really where is the fun in that?

Having said that i might even use the break of an average to go short of the £/$ - who knows :-). As for indicators, they all work until they dont.. trend is your friend blah blah blah

Thursday, October 15, 2009 10:32AM Report Comment

14. techieman said...

Dont get me wrong crunch - i have never said your method is wrong and mine is right, indeed i used to do exactly that - e.g. buy the bottom of an established trend channel if it was still above the x period average, using dailies and finesse with the hourlies or whatever. And yes it will do well alot of the time if you have enough discipline and if you are in markets that trend. if i come across as arguing with your method i am genuinely sorry and it would be more than a little bit of hypocrisy on my part.

Its just that doesnt interest me any more. Here is a clue for you.. Do you think Brucey performs for the money??

The reason i provide some detailed posts - and find it strange that others (yourself included) dont is because i think it might be helpful to others and also it re-inforces the position in your own mind.

Thursday, October 15, 2009 10:45AM Report Comment

15. luckyjim said...

techiman and crunchie

Can't you find an article relevant to this and hold your discussion there ? This thread is (was) about auction prices but any on-topic discussion has been killed stone dead.

Thursday, October 15, 2009 10:51AM Report Comment

16. Phil Yaboots said...

Lucky Jim - I couldn't agree more. It bores me to DEATH. Get a room and carry out your 'dealings' in private.

Thursday, October 15, 2009 11:00AM Report Comment

17. Crunchy said...

Different strokes tech. I am a dynamic trader so the opposite to you I guess. The MAC/D multiple time frame setups are my own.

RSI has lost me more money in the past than I care to admit to. Don't use it myself.

The Brucey thing? He can't lose money, big difference and he is payed for his bad habbits

traders do not have that luxury.

Happy profitable trading tech and remember what I said about stocks. Fighting bulls is dangerous. ; )

Thursday, October 15, 2009 11:09AM Report Comment

18. crunchy said...

14. luckyjim

Bloody Well Right.

but I have sent another without a password. IGNORE.

Thursday, October 15, 2009 11:13AM Report Comment

19. techieman said...

LJ you are right.... but Le Crunch started it @ 4 - i was just an innocent bystander until then. Anyway my lips are sealed :-). As for auction prices > "retail". I went to a seminar by that Homes under the Hammer Martin bloke, it was interestinghow many people were there and falling for some unbelievable hype.

I have also been to an auction myself and seen those that look like very good bargains actually not get put through and mysteriously appear in the next auction catalogue. I actually think that its not a great way to buy UNLESS you get a very good discount. Why someone would buy when you cant get one is beyond me.

The ineresting thing is what is the lead? Is the market perception as bullish encouraging "BArgain hunters" to go to auction or is it the other way round. I think that auction prices are more volatile than the normal market because of the nature of the transaction. Then again if the article is just plain wrong then there is no basis for either statement.

In any case you will always get regional variations and this seems to only be concerned with the south West. It would be good if we could get some meaningful stats on this kind of stuff, but thats the real problem with all of this house price melarky!!!

Thursday, October 15, 2009 11:15AM Report Comment

20. crunchy said...

Going, going, gone.

Thursday, October 15, 2009 11:22AM Report Comment

21. luckyjim said...

What I find odd about house auctions is that is seems very difficult to find out about them. There are even websites charging for information about auctions. Many auctioneers have out of date catalogues on their websites.

Maybe more people are going to the hassle of finding out about auctions and this is driving up prices - private buyers buying at market prices rather than 'in the know' traders buying at a discount.

Thursday, October 15, 2009 12:14PM Report Comment

22. bidin'matime said...

I went to an auction and the houses / flats were going for well over guide price - almost a frenzy in the room - quite frightening! We'd been to see one place - turned out to have a pylon over the back and opposite a row of council houses, not to mention being a wreck - went for about double the guide price - madness...

Thursday, October 15, 2009 12:33PM Report Comment

23. timmy t said...

Drewster - nothing cynical about that. They "should" advertise the reserve price but that would have a massive impact on turn-out. About the same % of people pay the guide price at auction as pay the RRP for a DFS sofa - somewhere close to zero.

Thursday, October 15, 2009 12:58PM Report Comment

24. greenshootsandleaves said...

The BBC's Bargain Hunt programme (worry not, luckyjim, this is not entirely off-topic!) often seems to feature a little bijou with what appears to be a ridiculously low guide price. Works nearly every time: sudden increase in the number of telephone bidders; item does not go for a song after all; those who thought it would presumably go home disappointed. Nothing earth-shattering there, just one of the (many) tricks of the trade. My point, though, is that the difference between the guide price and the actual price achieved at auction is not then trumpeted as a meaningful indicator.

Thursday, October 15, 2009 11:43PM Report Comment

25. fallingbuzzard said...

I look carefully at the small print when going to auctions now. UK auctioneers used to frown on vendors having people push up the price on their behalf and they never needed it until 2007 came. Although its fraudulent, there's a small loophole that allows the vendor the right to bid on their own property. In the past year this has become stupidly widespread and there's even much more bidding going on prior to the reserve price being met, i.e. before its even up for sale, just to create that frenzied sense of demand. I think auctions have become a complete and utter farce but if you must try it, go to a few auctions first and notice who bids on the properties of specific sellers. it won't take you long to work out who the plants are.

Friday, October 16, 2009 06:51PM Report Comment

26. greenshootsandleaves said...

I have two questions.
1. What would that loophole be?
2. What happens if the last bid is that of the vendor's mate? Don't tell me that he and the puppeteer can get away without even paying the commission!

Friday, October 16, 2009 08:50PM Report Comment

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