Tuesday, Oct 13, 2009

First BIG ramping article seen for a while...

Evening Standard: London house prices will jump nearly 40% by 2014

London prices are going to rise 40% by 2014, said an estate agent with no vested interest whatsoever in ramping the market. The rest of the UK will NOT do as well as London during this period... said the newspaper which has a readership which almost exclusively covers (you guessed it!) London. What, are you calling me cynical?
"[Estate agency Knight Frank's] comments coincide with a report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors which says that a lack of supply continues to underpin the house-price recovery." A coordinated propaganda attack, no less!

Posted by james in london @ 10:08 PM (2294 views)
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1. James In London said...

Okay, okay. Sorry to be the first commentator on my own posting, but some comments on the page itself are particularly, ah, fragrant. Such as:

"All those who have scoffed at this are clearly the types who have been waiting to cash in on other people's hard work. I rejoice in the fact that my home, bought in 1996 for £175,000, was sold at £601,000 in 2007, and has recently been valued at £590,000 - not much of a drop from peak here! Houses in good areas will stay desirable - and why not? I have put a huge amount of work into my house, quite apart from paying an often-whopping mortgage, have never had any benefits or whatever, and have no pension. House equity is all I have, like many others. Bring on those price increases!" - Liz, London,UK

Aside from this comment on "hard work" (an ignorance I, uh, ignored (sic)), THIS IS MY RESPONSE:

"Funny how the nouveaux riche of the older generation espouse the "I'm alright Jack" attitude if they were lucky enough to not only join the roulette table at the right time, but to cash their chips in too. Less amusing is how these self-righteous smugs are so downright unsympathetic to the plight of the younger generation. In short, the United Kingdom is eating its young. Those who regard this view as one as "doom-mongers" only fail to recognise the foul seed they sow for their children. This includes our fetid ruling powers."

I wonder if the Evening Standard will actually print it? Answers on a postcard. I'm particularly p1ssed off tonight about all this!

Tuesday, October 13, 2009 10:56PM Report Comment

2. paul said...

It's crap like this that has made The London Evening Standard what it is today - a free paper.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009 11:34PM Report Comment

3. fallingbuzzard said...

What spin. But then you can hire a PR agency to spin near enough anything in the press for about £10k a month. That will get you 2-4 placed articles per month so seems like good economics for any of those with vested interest (although I've noticed that Rightmove has stopped paying for placements). Thats why they can afford to give the ES away for free. Its not just about getting ads up. Now they're free to be paid more on article placement which doesn't count as advertising for the ASA.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009 11:49PM Report Comment

4. doomwatch said...

Coincidentally, the LES became a FREE newspaper this week, relying on only advertising for revenue. mmm.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009 11:50PM Report Comment

5. dude said...

The spell check is on the blink again. He did type:

Evening Standard: London house prices will fall nearly 40% by 2014

but got:

Evening Standard: London house prices will jump nearly 40% by 2014

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 12:14AM Report Comment

6. brickormortis said...

You know what? I am really starting to think that house prices just won't fall much more. I have always been teh 30% from peak guy but now I realise the obsession with wealth, the greed and the money for nothing culture of so many sill see this bubble kept inflated at the expense of rising government debt and a further widening of the gap between the haves and have nots.

I am absolutely agasp at the language used by the media to ramp the nation back into house buying. You know what, 5 months of house price rises against a backdrop of inflation growing to its highest levels ever and almost one trillion in government debt. Give me a break and wake up UK. Wake the f**k up!

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 05:11AM Report Comment

7. Rix said...

Fantastic! That means I'll be able to pick up a studio flat in my particular part of London (NW3) for just £280,000! Bargain....

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 07:08AM Report Comment

8. bellwether said...

The real value of houses are falling and will fall, the nominal value of house price could in theory rise 400% nevermind 40% by 2014 - it depends how mad government wants to be about it.I suspect given the huge negative wealth effect they are hoping to inflate just enough. Good luck with them on that but don't necessarily sit around passively in sterling while they do that.

Also remember the old proverb a watched housing market never crashes

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 07:56AM Report Comment

9. crunchy said...

6. bellwether said..."Also remember the old proverb a watched housing market never crashes."

I remember Japanese Uncle saying some time ago that one should forget the housing market even exists for 4 or 5 years, or words to

that effect. Personally I would extend that to forever, in this country anyway.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 08:30AM Report Comment

10. smugdog said...

Why not? Low rates for years to come, overseas buyers with an advantage in exchange rates, low returns on savings and uncertainty in equities. Why not indeed.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 08:38AM Report Comment

11. alan said...

@ brickormortis,
If a country puts house prices at the top of its political agenda and sacrifices everything for its achievement then it may succeed in inflating those house prices. But other things will get trashed (like the exchange rate, incentive to work, etc). Its like the old Soviet Union...A leader in space exploration and nuclear weapons but most of the people lived a substandard existence to pay for it.

Question is...Will Cameron follow the same path?

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 08:46AM Report Comment

12. hpwatcher said...

Whilst, Labour have been absolutely hell bent on preserving the bloated housing market prices - due in part to the fact that most MP's are now property speculators - I still don't see prices being sustained for much longer....the economy isn't going to be able to support it in the longer term.

Moreover, the general election demands that the illusion of the apparent 'return to normality' continues. They are putting ABSOLUTELY everything they have into it.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 08:51AM Report Comment

13. Another_pleb said...

It should have read, "Number of Dickensian Street Urchins To Jump by 40% by 2014."

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 08:54AM Report Comment

14. will said...

High house prices may need to be kept high by our Government to create the imaginary money needed through life, but any further rises will lead to a greater proportion of folk in this country not owning a home and therefore not having that imaginary money. I believe that we may see the number of home owners shrinking further to less than 50% in the next few years.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 09:18AM Report Comment

15. will said...

The Banks would benefit the most here. Their borrowers would no longer be in negative equity and could fully repay their loans when they sell up.

The borrowers won't benefit as the full debt remains with them. The Banker always wins.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 09:28AM Report Comment

16. waitingfor hpc said...

load of crap - it is JUST a paper article and a bad one at that!
By Xmas it will be a different story......... i have been contacted by 2 very desperate estate agents in the last 2 days, to flog me houses saying the market has bottomed out - now is the time to buy.
Also in the real world i see my export business has just fallen of a cliff ..... the stimulas has worked - BUT FOR HOW LONG?
Have faith people we are not mad - we see the light and others will be made to see it in time!

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 09:40AM Report Comment

17. waitingfor hpc said...

also by 2014 i predict that my willy will be 4 inches longer than it is now - does that make it true or false?

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 09:42AM Report Comment

18. Happy Mondays said...

waitingfor hpc thats a massive 5.5 '' thats well above the inflated measures the vi's can get away with..Keep it where it is,& be happy with what you,ve been given.. Life's to short ...

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 10:11AM Report Comment

19. inbreda said...

I'm sure there are ways of proving it waiting, but on this particular occassion I am happy to just take your word for it.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 10:35AM Report Comment

20. mrmickey said...

This seems like a generational battle to me, the baby boomers have all their wealth tied up in the housing market and need this to fund their retirement hence they don't want a houseprice crash. But the younger generation need lower house prices to get themselves started in life or face having to take out massive debt to buy a small box. I wonder if the young will rise up and wrest power from the boomers.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 11:11AM Report Comment

21. greenmind said...

I think it was Chris Martensen who predicted that the babyboom generation would be wanting to sell up all around the same time, creating oversupply and driving down prices to a realistic level. Is this a reasonable expectation?

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 11:13AM Report Comment

22. happy mondays said...

mrmickey said...I wonder if the young will rise up and wrest power from the boomers.
Oh i do hope so !

Things you say, Things you do sure worry me,
When were out on the street making money for you in your society.
It seems to me the time is right,
for another generation and another street fight.
Got no future, sure got a right, i got a right to live.

I can't stand the peace and quiet. All I want is a running a riot.
I can't stand the peace and quiet, Because all i want is a running.... RIOT!

Don't you try to understand the way we feel.
Lush Limousines and mortgages ain't no big deal.
I've got no friends who want to be, living like you when there 33.
Getting old sure bothers me, bothers me to death.

Cause I can't stand the peace and quiet.
All I want is a running a riot.
Cause I can't stand the peace and quiet.
All I want is a running .... RIOT!
Cause I can't stand the peace and quiet.
All I want is a running riot.
I want to riot!
I can't stand the peace and quiet,
All I want is a running.... RIOT! I just wanna RIOT!

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 11:28AM Report Comment

23. happy mondays said...

That was Running Riot by C*ck Sparrer.. Music with passion..

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 11:30AM Report Comment

24. stillthinking said...

I doubt very much the young will rise up and take power from the boomers, but I can imagine lots of people leaving.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 11:39AM Report Comment

25. sold out said...

oi oi oi

c*cksparrer, great song happy mondays.
beats the rubbish lyrics from a Secret Affair song posted by Slumdog the other day.

Will there be riots in this country?
I doubt it, not over house prices anyway.
More likely when the tories get in and cut benefits, no doubt the easylife chavscum under class will start kicking off.
But house prices, nah never most of the population just don't understand how high house prices have ruined our economy.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 11:58AM Report Comment

26. will said...

Both the Tories and Labour have failed the 'working classes'. I can't see any difference between the two parties and Lib Dems don't stand a chance. If enough people abstain from voting next year for any party due to lack of confidence, it would be a constitutional disaster. They talked about it last time round. I will not be voting next year.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 12:04PM Report Comment

27. Bob said...

and if all the people who are going to abstain vote lib dem instead then lib dem will have a chance.

theyre the only ones who've made any sense since the crunch and do not have their own vested interests that they must keep happy

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 12:34PM Report Comment

28. tenant super said...

There was a piece on the regional news this morning as well and the reporter, quoted the National housing Fed., stating the average London house price was three hundred and something thousand but the average wage was £26K pa. I thought the average London wage is £32K? Is 32K the mean (distorted by the small number of high earners) and £26K is the median?

As I have mentioned in other articles, if prices fell 50% from current levels, they would then be at 5x mean average salary. But I just find it hard to envisage this. Is it because I am too young to have witnessed a crash first hand?

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 12:42PM Report Comment

29. will said...

Tenant super @ 23

I owned through the late 80's early 90's crash. Houses genuinely fell for almost 7 years. I managed to sell up and buy again at a 30% discount. Things do feel different this time. The Government is trying its upmost to prevent a correction, but as during previous crashes, their efforts are not succesful. Even Gordon Browns repeated ' we will not return to boom and bust' has been proven wrong with the stock market. Hold on for further big drops ahead, this may take a few more years.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 01:34PM Report Comment

30. garch said...

And so the sickening property ramping begins....

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 01:48PM Report Comment

31. cynicalsoothsayer said...

Some previous house price crashes have been by high wage inflation leaving house prices behind as well as by house prices dropping. Hence all the discussion on here about the possibility of high inflation...

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 01:48PM Report Comment

32. a saver said...

My sister's next door neighbour (in Dundee) just sold her house, for 60K more than she paid for it last year.
My bro has enjoyed 2 years of negligible mortgage payments for his detached house. He has to remortgage before Xmas and is having trouble finding a bank that won't insist he has more than 10K of equity. But hey, he's not worried, prices are still going up!
Only in Britain could you get this kind of madness!
Think I will dust off my NZ passport.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 01:51PM Report Comment

33. cynicalsoothsayer said...

There is also the accuracy and relevance of the statistics. Some sources use the average wage of the house purchasers in their calculations rather than the national average. And of course, the median or modal income is far more relevant than the average wage.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 01:53PM Report Comment

34. Nickb said...

@sold out
"easylife chavscum under class"
What a charming way to refer to your fellow citizens. What about the oxbridge banking and corporate mafia who have conspired to create a society in which conditions of the least well off never improve? Could it be that the processes that lead to a faith in continued house prices (eg VI media distortion) also create a belief in 10-20% of the population being "bastards on the inside"?

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 01:55PM Report Comment

35. nickb said...

@sold out
"easylife chavscum under class"
What a charming way to refer to your fellow citizens. What about the oxbridge banking and corporate mafia who have conspired to create a society in which conditions of the least well off never improve? Could it be that the processes that lead to a faith in continued house prices (eg VI media distortion) also create a belief in 10-20% of the population being "bastards on the inside"?

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 01:56PM Report Comment

36. the number cruncher said...

"easylife chavscum under class"

I should Imagine some our non taxed property owning over-class refer to us as the " work like a dog slavescum under class"

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 02:03PM Report Comment

37. need-a-crash said...

@30. the number cruncher

Funny you should say that. I know quite a few 20-something children of the "non-taxed property owning over-class" who already have their own flats and do barely work (bit of charity work just to make themselves feel good) and they genuinely seem unable to understand why I bother getting out of bed so early every day!

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 02:22PM Report Comment

38. Swissnic said...

@ Number Cruncher...

Yes - we do...


Wednesday, October 14, 2009 04:16PM Report Comment

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