Thursday, Oct 29, 2009

Comedy classic from Independent EA

Wales Online: UK house price crash has hit parts of Wales hardest

Parts of Wales have experienced the most drastic drop in house prices anywhere in England and Wales, new government figures show. Data from the Land Registry for September shows the average house price in every single region in England and Wales fell in the last 12 months. But in Neath Port Talbot that fall was 18.7%, more than three times the average fall of 5.6%...... Leighton Williams, owner of independent estate agents Alison George. “We are working to an annual drop of around 20%. Houses we were comfortably selling in the £90,000s 18 months ago are now selling in the £60,000s. I wish I could put my finger on why.

Posted by jack c @ 09:18 PM (1083 views)
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6 Comments

1. paul said...

Right, I see what you did there.

Because we often label extravagant and unsubstantiated claims of house prices shooting up as 'comedy club' from gap-toothed shiny-suited EAs, you're trying to make a point that this could also be called 'comedy' because it is being pessimistic.

The point you've missed though (and don't worry - not everyone will understand these things) is vested interest.

Here's a link that should explain what a vested interest is.

Thursday, October 29, 2009 09:30PM Report Comment
 

2. jack c said...

Paul, try this bit "I wish I could put my finger on why" and link it to the picture of a big empty steel works

Thursday, October 29, 2009 09:38PM Report Comment
 

3. markj69 str05 said...

What's also interesting, if youlook at te oct release from LR, pg12 graph for 'Recorded monthly sales - England and Wales'. Every year recorded shows a very distinctive downward spike around Feb/March time! I know the chart shows a recent upward trend, but, I'll be interested to see the 'Stats' early next yr.

Thursday, October 29, 2009 10:47PM Report Comment
 

4. markj69 str05 said...

Combine this natural phenomenom, with 'general election' uncertainties, (And potential poor recesion recovery!), mix it all up in a big pot, and hey ho, we may just see the natural correction required.

Thursday, October 29, 2009 10:54PM Report Comment
 

5. techieman said...

Paul you just dont get it do you. I have been on this site for quite some time now and Jack C IS A BEAR! We HAVE been through this already! Why on earth would you think him a BULL?? Posting bullish articles doesnt mean you agree with them does it?

Lets review some of the article:

"I wish I could put my finger on why." -F*ck me -they have no idea - what is the point of having this tw*t comment at all? He has now idea of the mechanics of long term markets - should be reading psychology for dummies - let alone the fundementals.

“There is a lot of buy-to-let property in the area and that may be a cause but I wouldn’t necessarily say it is the cause.” EA Expertise personified.

He added: “[House prices] have certainly plateaued and we are not seeing further drops. And newer offers are now nearer the asking price whereas they have been far more speculative. The only way is up from here.” - GOOD he thinks that because he had no clue there was going to be a fall and i doubt he told anyone "we might see a 20% fall" so why believe him if he thinks its the bottom....These boys will soon learn picking bottoms gives you dirty fingers.


Mick McGuire, managing director of South Wales-wide estate agents Peter Alan, said Neath had seen a high proportion of home repossessions.

“Where the economy performs poorly you will see that reflected in house prices,” - ahhh a pearl of wisdom from another EA - the point is its reactionary. Wait for the economy to turn and then blame it on that cause and effect ar5e about face.

“Jobs and unemployment can also influence the net number of repossessions and, clearly, a number of repossessed houses selling will also depress house prices.” _ Thanks for that one - phew i was a bit confused before you told me that. So is unemployment lagging or leading?

It all just goes to show that really EAs should not express a view about where markets are going because the property market is based on long term swings.

Of course predicting its only up from here is extrapolating a short term swings to the upside. Will that short term swing become a longer term swing? Personally i dont think so, the momentum of the rises is now grinding to a halt. Of course they may be right but that wont be based on any qualification, that will be based on pure luck. The problem is that these people say these things that suck in the people that can afford to be sucked in least.

I think that EAs should provide CURRENT market valuations and only sell houses and not predict future prices. My pet amoeba could provide a more sound prediction!!!

Friday, October 30, 2009 09:55AM Report Comment
 

6. nomad said...

The term "Vested Interest" works both ways.

Friday, October 30, 2009 10:49AM Report Comment
 

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