Tuesday, Oct 06, 2009

+1.6% MoM -7.4 YoY

Halifax: September House Price Index

Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said:
"House prices increased by 1.6% in September; the third consecutive monthly increase and the fifth so far this year. House prices nationally have risen by 1.7% since the end of 2008.
The combination of increased demand and a low level of properties available for sale has pushed up house prices in recent months. The marked improvement in affordability due to the reduction in both property prices and interest rates since mid 2007 has been a key factor in stimulating higher demand.
Continuing increases in unemployment and low earnings growth are likely to constrain the rise in demand. There are also some signs that the improvement in market conditions is encouraging more people to put their properties up for sale. This development could lo"

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 09:07 AM (5051 views)
Add Comment
Report Article

42 Comments

1. Zebbedee said...

In the words of Victor Meldrew "I don't believe it!"

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 09:11AM Report Comment
 

2. mrflibble said...

Welcome to the Twilight Zone...

That's an awfully big number for this time of year. It should to be tending to 0 by now before it goes negative again.

Are we looking at a crack-up boom here or are we stood on the edge of the abyss, or both?

Reality and the UK seem to have parted ways...

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 09:15AM Report Comment
 

3. britishblue said...

We have an election in May. All parties know that expenditure has to be cut and whatever party gets in will have to do so. After this for people who have large mortages and low equity the ride is going to be absolutey horrible as whatever options the government take it will have a swingeing downward effect on house prices which may make the current crash look like a childs picknick.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 09:22AM Report Comment
 

4. inbreda said...

I'm glad that he recognises that lower prices stimulates demand. Now all he has to do is to point that out to the EAs and we can get this party started.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 09:24AM Report Comment
 

5. matt_the_hat said...

Buying a house is like buying stock in the UK - can someone please tell me why I would want to live in the UK over Spain/Italy/Greece when we are now governed by one committee (EU post Ireland vote) and all laws are soon to be normalized. If I worked in the financial industry I would see this as a great arbitrage trade and smuggy do you see the prices in the rest of europe going up ;-)

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 09:25AM Report Comment
 

6. smugdog said...

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Wake me up when all the Russell Grants have left the room.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 09:29AM Report Comment
 

7. phdinbubbles said...

@smugdog
Keep spending and carry on. Nothing to worry about.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 09:33AM Report Comment
 

8. smugdog said...

What many do not realise is that the man in the street does not see the Halifax and Nationwide figures as being joint indicators.

They actual see them as separate fortnightly statements. 0.9% rise by the Nationwide followed by a 1.9% rise confirmed by the Halifax.

To these souls (and there are a lot out there), life is safe and comforting once again.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 09:38AM Report Comment
 

9. uncle tom said...

Smugs,

In general, the man in the street doesn't understand percentages. Some years ago a numeracy survey of adults asked some really simple percentage questions; things like 'what is 20% of 100' - and found a very large percentage of the population had no idea...

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 09:49AM Report Comment
 

10. Mark Wadsworth said...

"a low level of properties available for sale"

'nuff said.

@ Uncle Tom, but can anybody remember what percentage of the population doesn't understand percentages?

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 09:50AM Report Comment
 

11. matt_the_hat said...

8. uncle tom - "and found a very large percentage of the population had no idea..." - but you know how to work that percentage out but don't want to tell us :-)

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 09:53AM Report Comment
 

12. phdinbubbles said...

20% in the UK got 12 out of 12 in this survey from 1997. This was the lowest percentage of the seven Countries involved in the survey.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 10:01AM Report Comment
 

13. mark wadsworth said...

"a low level of properties available for sale has pushed up house prices"

This is yet another one of those Big Fat Lies that appears to be accepted as true.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 10:10AM Report Comment
 

14. smugdog said...

The Express and Co fully realise the level of numeracy in the country. They choose to represent the figures with simple glowing, triumphant and flowery reporting in order to show the public that all is well in Great Britain once more. It works!

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 10:11AM Report Comment
 

15. jack c said...

The person in the survey providing permission to reproduce it (see phd's link) - B itiscock

I wonder what % of people in the UK have this name (brings a new level to taking the p**s)

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 10:12AM Report Comment
 

16. Uro_who said...

Rejoice. An annualised 20%. Thanks God the Bank of England have saved us.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 10:13AM Report Comment
 

17. mytimeisnigh said...

In my opinion the vested interests shouldn't be cheering the rises as it can only lead to interest rises and that will create a blood bath.If I were a vested interest person, I'd be hoping for a flat market.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 10:23AM Report Comment
 

18. phdinbubbles said...

@jack c
britishsurnames.co.uk gave me the following:

"Search for 'ITISCOCK'

Sorry, we don't currently have any data for ITISCOCK.

If this is your name: Congratulations, you are a genuine rarity, at least in the UK. Maybe you should try to breed, to avoid the ITISCOCK family becoming extinct! "

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 10:29AM Report Comment
 

19. str 2007 said...

RE: The Halifax survey

Yes Smugdog is correct that the population have been reminded twice this month that house prices are going up at a rate of at least 10% a year.

To a degree a self fullfilling prophecy.

However, note should also be made that it is larger houses that are selling and being recorded in these surveys and repossessions and other auctioned houses and flats that are going at 40% under 2007 prices are excluded from these figures.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 10:33AM Report Comment
 

20. smugdog said...

Once more to those who are not convinced. In order to fully appreciate, please substitute the Norwegian Blue parrot with HPC.


Owner: Oh yes, the, uh, the Norwegian Blue...What's,uh...What's wrong with it?

Mr. Praline: I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. 'E's dead, that's what's wrong with it!

Owner: No, no, 'e's uh,...he's resting.

Mr. Praline: Look, matey, I know a dead parrot when I see one, and I'm looking at one right now.

Owner: No no he's not dead, he's, he's restin'! Remarkable bird, the Norwegian Blue, idn'it, ay? Beautiful plumage!

Mr. Praline: The plumage don't enter into it. It's stone dead.

THE DEAD END!

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 10:34AM Report Comment
 

21. str 2007 said...

RE: PHD's survey.
Yes a bit of a worry we can't get 100% up to that level. Really all in your head type calculations.

I'd like to see results now ie 2009 of 14-24 year olds.

Those educated under Labours ever improving exam results.

I noted the younger generation in that survey did worse than the older generation.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 10:41AM Report Comment
 

22. str 2007 said...

I do wonder if even the IMF are resigned to the fact that re-inflating the bubble and sharing the pain amongst the populus of the UK is better than having the bubble deflate to where it should be.

Perhaps the IMF have seen the size of our problem and realise they don't have enough money to bailout the uk.

We haven't yet allowed for the fac that banks could (possibly be made) to reduce their margins on mortgages. IE allowing base rates to rise to 3% but mortgages remain at an average of 5%.

In fact has anyone here actually put forward a calculation to say how long it will take banks to re-balance their books lending mortgages out at 5% but borrowing the money at 1.5%.

That's a huge contribution from each mortgaged house towards the banks coffers.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 10:50AM Report Comment
 

23. nomad said...

"What a day for a smudgog
What a day for a daydreamin' boy"

Lovin' Spoonful circa 1967

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 10:56AM Report Comment
 

24. Mnkybusiness said...

@str 2007

"In fact has anyone here actually put forward a calculation to say how long it will take banks to re-balance their books lending mortgages out at 5% but borrowing the money at 1.5%.

That's a huge contribution from each mortgaged house towards the banks coffers."

It would be except there's a missing piece from this equation which is how much the banks will lose on bad mortgages. Being an HPCer would suggest that you expect this to be a larger number rather than a smaller number.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 11:01AM Report Comment
 

25. mystie010 said...

Well chaps I think this is fab news! I'm off to buy a shoe box (sorry house) paint over its magnolia interior with more magnolia (just for good measure to freshen it up a bit that is), then I'm gonna flip it! And then next month when asking prices rise by 5.0% month on month I'm gonna get rich cos house prices only go up innit!

Joking apart, I simply do not believe these figures. I live in Devon and in my seaside area of full on desirability, the rises are simply not there at all, rien, nada, niet! There are a lot of properties that are reducing their asking prices and those coming on are finally looking a bit more sensible. At the end of the day vendors can ask away, but it doesn't say that they are going to get, but they look pretty damn stupid in the process. However all the numpties will be putting their boxes back on the market hoping to make a quick buck and oversupply means - meltdown. Relax guys for the next few months I'm sure we will all be vindicated and if we are not as I said above (tongue in cheek) we can always join them and get out our magnoila paint. If the rest of the country can do then so can we :-)

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 11:12AM Report Comment
 

26. the number cruncher said...

smugdog@ 17

The blank swan is a far more common sight than a Norwegian blue?

A man predicting the weather will be the same tomorrow as it was today will be hugely more accurate that and random guess. But it does not make you a weather forecaster.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 11:16AM Report Comment
 

27. the number cruncher said...

smugdog@ 17

The blank swan is a far more common sight than a Norwegian blue?

A man predicting the weather will be the same tomorrow as it was today will be hugely more accurate that and random guess. But it does not make you a weather forecaster.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 11:16AM Report Comment
 

28. rumble said...

@smugdog

"...They actual see them as separate fortnightly statements....life is safe and comforting once again" -
it's called ignorance (is bliss). And you agree with them?

"The Express and Co fully realise the level of numeracy in the country....It works!" -
bit superficial. Don't you think a functioning economy works with a little more depth? And you agree with them?

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 11:19AM Report Comment
 

29. nomad said...

@19. Global toxic debt is most commonly put at £2.8 trillion with £1.5 trillion still to be accommodated. How much UK banks still have to write down appears to be anybodies guess. The banks can tell us what suits them to retain favourable governmental policies.

Auditors appear to have avoided much criticism so far - why?

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 11:19AM Report Comment
 

30. smugdog said...

Rumble, you ask do I agree with them?

I disagree with them on many levels, but their actions sure make my life a whole lot easier in many respects.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 12:10PM Report Comment
 

31. quiet guy said...

At the end of the report, their trends table states that prices dipped to their lowest point that year in April.

Prices change from April 09 to September 09 was £154,490 to £163,533 i.e. 5.9% rise in prices.
Price/Earnings Ratio from April 09 to September 09 was 4.25 to 4.48 i.e. 5.4% rise in mortgage debt as a percentage of income.

These indicators appear to be in step which seems to make sense - to afford higher prices, you have to borrow more.

So how long can we keep increasing our borrowings in this financial climate?

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 01:00PM Report Comment
 

32. rumble said...

"...They actual see them as separate fortnightly statements....life is safe and comforting once again"
"The Express and Co fully realise the level of numeracy in the country....It works!"

"substitute the Norwegian Blue parrot with HPC"

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 01:12PM Report Comment
 

33. timmy t said...

Why can't they just be honest? "No first time buyers can meet our lending criteria so we are only lending to the cash rich or those with a lot of equity, and these people buy bigger houses." End of press release.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 01:15PM Report Comment
 

34. smugdog said...

Rumble, I do believe that you are starting to develop a slight crush on me!

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 01:17PM Report Comment
 

35. denzil said...

Mark Wadsworth said in reply:
""a low level of properties available for sale has pushed up house prices"

This is yet another one of those Big Fat Lies that appears to be accepted as true."

Mark, I don't understand your view here. Can you clarify?
Are you saying it's a lie that there is a low-level of property for sale
or a lie that a low-level of property has pushed up house prices?

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 01:19PM Report Comment
 

36. rumble said...

This comment has been voluntarily censored as it was found to be in breach of the Blog Policies.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 02:06PM Report Comment
 

37. mark wadsworth said...

@ Denzil, there is a huge amount of property up for sale, about one year's worth of sales (about 700,000 properties, let's say), i.e. even if no new properties came up for sale, it would still take a year to shift them all. What there is a shortage of is vendors prepared to accept sensible prices.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 02:19PM Report Comment
 

38. jack c said...

A rumble in the doghouse

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 02:31PM Report Comment
 

39. sparky300 said...

I can't understand these so called rises , here in northern Ireland a new development near me , 4 bed detached with garage advertised for £257k for the last six months , now they are £245k , eight sitting empty , no buyers , the rises are not happening on the ground

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 03:21PM Report Comment
 

40. jack c said...

Moneymarketing have some interesting coverage on this topic -Halifax warns of drops after third consecutive house price rise
Lee Jones - 06-Oct-2009

Property Portfolio Rescue director Nick Hopkinson says: “As yet another monthly house price index heralds a housing market revival, the public could be forgiven for thinking that property prices are booming again. These monthly numbers simply reflect 'cherry picked' lending to high earners with big deposits on prime property by the lenders concerned.

"House sales volumes are still at rock bottom and overall mortgage lending is falling, as any ordinary buyer will testify. A dark grey cloud of rising unemployment, falling household income, tax rises and public service cuts looms on the horizon. Anyone wanting to sell their home should move fast before the harsh economic winter really sets in.”

(full story @ www.moneymarketing.co.uk/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=194585&d=340&h=341&f=342)

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 04:44PM Report Comment
 

41. 51ck-6-51x said...

Hang about. I thought Halifax & Nationwide did mix-adjusting?

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 05:40PM Report Comment
 

42. tenyearstogetmymoneyback said...

sparky300

Perhaps the problem is that they are only four bed. Why would anyone buy one of those
when for a hundred grand more they could get a six bed with six en-suite bathrooms.
Then when prices shoot up their additional gearing would increase their profits :-)

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 07:03PM Report Comment
 

Add comment

  • If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
  • If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
  • Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
  • Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
  • Please adhere to the Guidelines
Username  
Admin Password
Email Address
Comments

Main Blog | Archive | Add Article | Blog Policies