September 2009 Archive

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Gordo Aims to Sell Assets when Market is Bottoming?

Times: Labour to freeze pay and sell assets in dash for cash

"Labour plans to halve Britain’s deficit with spending cuts and asset sales worth £75 billion without resorting to further tax rises". "Cabinet ministers are also being pressed for a list of possible privatisations. They believe that sell-offs, particularly of property, could significantly reduce the deficit". More details of the (secret) plan to reduce Britain’s deficit — expected to reach £200 billion — will be leaked before the Pre-Budget Report ....

Posted by alan @ 11:59 PM 2 Comments

Unbelievably bad debt losses

Telegraph: IMF's credit-constrained vision of the world economy is the wrong bet

The IMF estimates of debt losses for the banks are so unbelievably bad, that, the author of the article, Jeremy Warner, doesn't believe them.

Posted by stillthinking @ 10:27 PM 0 Comments

Gordon Brown was the cause, not only of the UK credit crunch, but also the US credit crunch

Telegraph: Was Gordon Brown's speech at the Labour Party conference the last gasp of a charlatan?

''Mr Brown...was the cause, not only of the UK credit crunch, but more seriously, the credit crunch in the United States....The light-touch, non-existent bank regulation that Brown had made available in the UK was noticed by American banks and so many of them switched their centres of operations to London that Clinton was forced to repeal the Glass-Seagall Act in order to prevent Wall St. becoming a ghost town for banking'' Comment by Rob Bryant 10:49 am

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:35 PM 13 Comments

Well, what did they expect if they slammed the base rate into the floor.

Mail: House price bounce leaves Bank of England stunned

The Bank of England has been taken aback by the recent rebound in house prices and is watching the market carefully for any signs of excessive 'exuberance'. The Mail understands that chief economist Spencer Dale yesterday told economists the strength in property values had been surprising. Officials would start to get worried if the revival gets out of hand, he said, although we are not there yet. This comes only a week after Dale said in a speech that the Bank's money-printing programme could lead to 'unwarranted increases in some asset prices that could prove costly to rectify'.

Posted by wanderinman @ 05:31 PM 28 Comments

Please Quease Me

BBC News: FTSE 100 has record three months

The FTSE 100 index of leading shares has enjoyed the best three months in its entire 25-year history. The index has gained 21% between July and September. Its next best performance was in during the dotcom boom in 1999, when it rose 14.9%.

Posted by little professor @ 05:09 PM 9 Comments

Exceptional Fisherman's Cottage: 247k

BBC: Cottage sale omits nuclear view

"An advert for an "exceptional fisherman's cottage" in Kent has been criticised for failing to mention the nuclear power station on its doorstep. The three-bedroom "not to be missed" bungalow at Romney Marsh, Dungeness, is being sold for £247,000. Estate agent Geering & Colyer points out its proximity to a nature reserve and photos show it in rural isolation. But New Romney Town Council said it was "disingenuous" not to mention its neighbours, Dungeness A and B. "

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 04:42 PM 3 Comments

That will make housing $8000 more expensive

Daily Reckoning: A century of bad ideas

House prices seem to be stabilising. In some areas, they are going up. Of course, in some places you can get a house at half the price it sold for two years ago. That lures buyers back into the market. If we wanted a house to live in, we might be tempted too. That’s why we like falling housing prices: we get more for our money. But most people want a rising housing market. They think it makes them richer. They’re likely to be disappointed. They show up at the beach with their umbrellas and sun-tan lotion... just as a winter storm hits the coast.

Posted by apophis @ 04:22 PM 0 Comments

Property Tycoon Jailed for Life

BBC News: Property Tycoon Jailed for Life

A developer has been jailed for life for murdering a tenant who who got in the way of a £2m property deal. Death is too good for him, I say let him rot

Posted by mikedx @ 03:17 PM 3 Comments

Now Brown's losing it too..

Telegraph: Gordon Brown in angry exchanges with broadcasters

I thought his interviews on TV this morning were strangely short.. Seems The Sun's front page got to him.. No sign of the unedited footage anywhere online though.. pity..!

Posted by uncle tom @ 02:42 PM 31 Comments

Free heating included?

BBC News: Cottage Sale Omits Nuclear View

EA's do not tell lies, they just 'conceal the truth' (someone please tell me the difference!) Hey, bet that massive building behind the back fence shields you from those stiff nor'easterlies! Wonder if you also get free heating/lighting? What if Al Quaeda buy it?

Posted by chazza @ 02:27 PM 0 Comments

Prohpets of Doom declared wrong.

Express: HOUSE PRICES UP BY £10,000 IN 6 MONTHS

"Experts said the rise proved economic “prophets of doom” wrong" Just you wait. Mwuahahaha

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 12:56 PM 12 Comments

House Prices in Wales Show Stable Increases

E1 News: House Prices in Wales Show Stable Increases

Welsh experts of the housing sector claim that the country enjoys the most rapid recovery of the property industry as house prices in Wales rise while the rest of the UK sees decreases in property values. According to the figures revealed by the Land Registry, an average increase in house prices of 0.5% registered in August took an average house price of a Welsh house to £123,491.

Posted by uch1405 @ 12:02 PM 2 Comments

100% reserve banking

FT: Why narrow banking alone is not the finance solution

"What entered the crisis was, we now know, an ill-managed, irresponsible, highly concentrated and undercapitalised financial sector, riddled with conflicts of interest and benefiting from implicit state guarantees. What is emerging is a slightly better capitalised financial sector, but one even more concentrated and benefiting from explicit state guarantees. This is not progress: it has to mean still more and bigger crises in the years ahead."

Posted by letthemfall @ 10:11 AM 14 Comments

Its yet another scam, isn't it?

Telegraph: Lloyds admits to using 2.99pc mortgage to attract branch customers despite strict lending criteria

"Lloyds TSB has been accused of misleading customers with a 2.99 per cent mortgage, which it admits to using to attract more customers into its branches despite strict lending criteria attached to the deal". "The deal also has a 2.5 per cent arrangement fee – one of the highest on the market – meaning customers with a typical mortgage of £150,000 pay almost £4,000 just for the mortgage to be processed".

Posted by alan @ 09:52 AM 1 Comments

Something you won't be hearing about at the Labour Party Conference

Guardian: Lack of credit and weak banks will harm UK recovery, IMF says

In this depressing report the IMF predicts "bad loans to be particularly heavy this year in commercial real estate and buy-to-let mortgages" and goes on to assert that "the financial sector was only halfway through the writedown process, with American banks further advanced than those in Europe. US banks have recognised 60% of anticipated losses against 40% for banks in Britain and the euro area." So how many of these predicted losses relate to mortgages?

Posted by quiet guy @ 09:11 AM 3 Comments

Most borrowers opting for variable rate mortgages

Telegraph: Sharp drop in borrowers choosing fixed-rate mortgages

The proportion of people opting for fixed-rate mortgages has halved during the past two months following increases in the cost of the deals, research has showed. Mortgage broker John Charcol said only 42pc of its customers took out a fixed-rate mortgage during August, down from 83pc in June and the lowest level since December last year. The majority of people instead opted for variable-rate deals.

Posted by wanderinman @ 12:50 AM 5 Comments

BoE pulls back from deposit rate decision

The Times: Pound up as fears of Bank rate change ease

Sterling rallied sharply on foreign exchange markets yesterday as the Bank of England emphasised that it had no immediate plans to change the rate that it pays to commercial banks on sums deposited with it overnight. Economists attending a “teach-in” at the Bank yesterday were said to have received indications that no such move was imminent, with officials suggesting the Bank was “some way” from deciding on any change. The economists are also understood to have been told at the meeting that the Bank was unhappy about the way in which the market had reacted to comments made by Mr King to The Journal, the Newcastle title, last week, which were interpreted by some as an attempt to talk down the pound.

Posted by wanderinman @ 12:27 AM 36 Comments

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Alistair Darling’s decision to bash bankers at Labour’s party conference was predictable, misguided

Spiked online: A blame game you can bank on

Rather than try to turn bankers’ pay into what Angela Knight calls a ‘dog-whistle issue’, we need a chancellor of the exchequer who can put aside the narrow advice of opinion pollsters and think about what is best for the wider economy. Just don’t bank on Alistair Darling, or anyone else in this government, being able to do that.

Posted by c'mon correction @ 09:24 PM 0 Comments

Bernie Madoff crushed by a farting bull. (Pic)

BBC News: Bernie Madoff crushed by a farting bull. (Pic)

Not one prone to art but I thought HPCers would appreciate Chinese artist Chen Wenling's critique the global financial crisis

Posted by the number cruncher @ 07:35 PM 4 Comments

Two-year tracker deals issued before the collapse of Northern Rock are coming to an end

Telegraph: Goodbye to the 0% mortgage

Thousands of home owners who are currently enjoying rock-bottom mortgage rates will soon see these ultra-cheap deals come to an end. Borrowers lucky enough to have snapped up tracker deals with Halifax, Cheltenham & Gloucester (C&G) and Birmingham Midshires two years ago have been paying zero interest on their mortgage for the past six months. And many more home owners have been enjoying rates of less than 1pc – with Abbey, Alliance & Leicester, Intelligent Finance and Saffron Building Society all previously selling tracker deals that offered substantial discounts off the Bank Rate – which has stood at just 0.5pc since March. But in the next few months tracker deals will all expire, causing a sharp increase in monthly mortgage payments for many families.

Posted by drewster @ 06:49 PM 18 Comments

It's different in the UK because...erm...

Reuters: Unprecedented U.S. corp. defaults seen for '09

"U.S. corporate debt default rates are expected to hit "unprecedented" levels in 2009, even though the economy may be past the halfway mark of the U.S. recession, according to a forecast unveiled on Monday at the Reuters Restructuring Summit". ( = more US banking problems, depressed housing market, damaged economy).

Posted by alan @ 05:46 PM 1 Comments

Flips & flops - hours of fun!

Mouseprice: House price trends by postcode district

Over at Mouseprice.net, you can type in your chosen postcode district in "Where to search" and then click "House price trends" under the heading "Key info" in the left hand side bar. If you scroll down, they have a list of "flips" (repeat sales since 2000 which were at a profit) and "flops"... glorious. Hours of fun.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 02:21 PM 10 Comments

Ed Mead speaks

Frisby's Bulls and Bears: Uk Property Show Number 1

A 15-minute interview with straight-talking Ed Mead of estate agents Douglas and Gordon.

Posted by frizzers @ 01:47 PM 2 Comments

Huge job losses on way

Yahoo: EU says Lloyds needs to shrink presence

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Partially nationalised bank Lloyds must not be allowed to remain dominant in areas where it has a strong presence after receiving billions of pounds in state aid, the European Union's antitrust chief said.

Posted by mark @ 01:34 PM 3 Comments

Bank offers extra £500m in a return to 90% loans

Daily Mail: 'Housing crash is over' declares HSBC

Britain's biggest bank claims the housing crash is over and has promised to lend an extra £500 million to people applying for 90per cent home loans. The pledge from HSBC is expected to end a two-year log-jam on this type of high loan to value mortgage. The decision is seen as evidence that the UK's biggest mortgage lender is confident that house prices will not fall any further.Rivals, such as the Lloyds group, which includes Halifax, are expected to respond by increasing the amount of mortgage lending and high value loans they offer.

Posted by little professor @ 01:30 PM 36 Comments

So much for the Autumn bouce

The Times: Mortgage deals record first fall in 10 months

It's pretty simple really, and the B of E agree: "Today's Bank of England data showed that total mortgage lending climbed to a 6-month high of £1.0 billion in August. They also revealed that consumers paid down unsecured debt at the fastest rate since records began in 1993 as concerns about the economy and job losses continued to weigh heavily. " Unless people see some kind of improvement with the Exchange Rate, Economy or Unemployment - which we all know is not about to happen for many, many months - people will walk away from property commitments unless they have to.

Posted by growler @ 01:26 PM 5 Comments

Why QE isn't working - onein the eye for inflationistas

FT.com: What can be done to enhance QE and CE in the UK, and who decides?

By Willem Buiter of the LSE. SHows that QE doesn't work and the Bank of England know it. They're deliberately doing it in an ineffective way, it's only real purpose in my opinion is to bring down the value of Sterling. "Quantitative easing (QE - the purchase of government securities by the central bank, financed through increases in base money) in the UK is not working. I should have written “not yet”, for posterior coverage reasons, but I’m running out of patience with a policy that (a) has been ineffective for the half year of its existence and (b) can be easily modified to make it more effective."

Posted by tpbeta @ 12:37 PM 1 Comments

Farmland

Reuters: SEARCH FOR INVESTMENT HAVENS DRIVES VALUE OF FARMLAND UPWARDS

Somebody was listening to Jim Rogers.... UK farmland has shot back up to a 2008 peak. Food is often considered volatile and stripped out of the inflation index, so to what extent long run price increases in food are considered who knows, up to the authorities.

Posted by stillthinking @ 11:52 AM 5 Comments

6 month anniversary of QE

BBC: UK growth falls less than thought

The rate of contraction of the UK economy in the three months from April to June has been reduced again. Gross domestic product (GDP) has been revised to a fall of 0.6% compared with the last quarter, up from the previous estimate of 0.7%. Colin Ellis, a former senior economist at the Bank of England - "it's probably true that the impact of QE has maybe been a little bit less than the bank would have originally thought."

Posted by jack c @ 10:06 AM 10 Comments

Dead cat plateau

BBC: Mortgage approvals dip in August

The number of new mortgages approved, but not yet lent, has fallen for the first time in 10 months, according to figures from the Bank of England. In August there were 52,317 approvals, down slightly from 52,404 in July. The data adds to growing evidence that the recent revival in the property market may have reached a plateau.

Posted by jack c @ 09:58 AM 16 Comments

A note of caution to first time buyers

Love Money: Don't be suckered into buying a property

Like vampires, the housing market needs the fresh blood of property virgins. Don't be suckered in just yet, or you'll get it in the neck, especially if inflation and interest rates start rising.

Posted by pooodle2 @ 09:29 AM 6 Comments

Following on from yesterdays "what we can learn as Japan's economy sinks"

BBC: Japan prices continue record fall

Japan's core consumer prices dropped 2.4% in August year-on-year, the fourth successive month of record falls. Official figures showed core prices, which exclude those of volatile fresh food, fell for a sixth month in a row. The record fall for August was due to lower petrol and other energy costs as well as weak domestic demand. Japan, the world's second largest economy, experienced a prolonged period of deflation in the 1990s, commonly referred to as "the lost decade".

Posted by jack c @ 09:16 AM 0 Comments

Monday, September 28, 2009

Heavens above..

BBC News: New laws to end 'rain tax storm'

Somewhat off-topic, but it reminds me of a Parish Council meeting years ago, when it was noted that the council was paying a £15 bill each year for water to a tennis court that had neither a water supply nor a connection to a sewer. 'Don't pay' - I chipped - 'let them try to cut you off..' ..the council didn't pay - and heard no more..

Posted by uncle tom @ 09:02 PM 5 Comments

For 'tis sport to have the engineer / Hoist with his own petard

Web of Debt: Landmark decision promises....trouble for banks

Securitisation itself was complicated, then there were lots of secured parties and the parcels kept changing hands, Eventually Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems (MERS) kept track of these changes electonically, facilitating the rapid turnover of mortgages and MBSs. MERS became a proxy for the security holders, registering mortgage loans in its name and bringing foreclosure proceedings. But now a court has decided that MERS doesn't have the legal standing to foreclose - and there's no other party with such standing. Not MERS, not the lender who packaged and sold on the securities, not the securities holders because they weren't signatories to the original contract. And there's more...oh dear!

Posted by icarus @ 08:11 PM 5 Comments

Noboby built more bridges

Ritholtz: Andy Xie What we can learn as japans economy sinks

Another worthwhile read. Don't be caught fixated on the monthly minutiae of house price fluctations and miss the issues that will determine what will happen to house prices and our economy longer term. Japan did a lot of the things that we are trying now to offset deflation but to little avail - although who knows perhaps the policies prevented an outright collapse. Notice the government are continuing the UK version of Cash for Clunkers. This worries me not because it is bad in itself/will really make a differnce either way but because it is kind of pathetic attempt to maskproblems, that the government feel they cannot solve. It is in perfect minature labours single, and now bankrupt idea, of borrowing from future demand.

Posted by bellwether @ 02:34 PM 21 Comments

Four reasons to sell your commercial property stocks now

MoneyWeek: Four reasons to sell your commercial property stocks now

Commercial property prices are rising again after a two-year collapse. But it's not time to buy back in...

Posted by damien @ 02:19 PM 0 Comments

The investment industry is screwing us

FT: Costly cogs, misfiring machine

Longish (only slightly off-topic) article about the fees-creaming investment industry (just in case you didn't know) and what can be done about it [Brief laugh].

Posted by letthemfall @ 02:17 PM 2 Comments

Bear Food!

Independent: First house price fall in four months

"House prices dipped by 0.1 per cent during August, the first monthly fall for four months, figures showed today. The drop, which followed a strong 1.8 per cent rise in July, left the average home in England and Wales costing £155,968, according to the Land Registry. But the annual rate at which prices are falling continued to slow, easing to 9.4 per cent, the lowest figure since September last year and down from a high of 16.3 per cent in February."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 02:08 PM 7 Comments

High house prices are good...High house prices are good...High house prices are good...

Bloomberg: State Housing Agencies in U.S. Said Slated for Treasury Help

State housing agencies in the U.S. would get help in providing mortgages to low-income borrowers under a U.S. Treasury Department program to provide new liquidity and purchase mortgage bonds, Treasury officials said. The program would provide as much as $15 billion in fresh liquidity for as long as three years and would purchase as much as $20 billion in tax-exempt mortgage bonds issued by state- sponsored housing finance agencies through the end of this year, a person familiar with the matter said. The program may be announced as early as Sept. 30

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 01:32 PM 0 Comments

More stimulation

BBC: Scrappage scheme 'to be extended'

Excellent - it's only a matter of time before they give us our childrens' money to buy a house.

Posted by krustyatemyhamster @ 01:25 PM 26 Comments

Residential Mortgage Approvals Rise in August - BBA

E1 News: BBA Reports an Increase in Mortgage Lending

According to the latest report published by the British Bankers’ Association on September 23rd, Wednesday, bank lending in the United Kingdom improved in August as lenders approved more residential mortgages and loans to non-commercial organisations.

Posted by fmnod @ 12:32 PM 1 Comments

Alistair Darling to detail curbs on MP's Expenses!

Daily Telegraph: Alistair Darling to detail curbs on bank pay

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, will give details of new rules to curb bankers' bonuses (and MP's expenses) at the Labour Party conference to end what he calls "greed and recklessness" in the financial system (and Westminster). "Let me assure the country and warn the banks (and MP's) that there will be no return to the business as usual," he will say in his speech. Any bonuses (and expenses) will be deferred over time so they can be clawed back if they are warranted by long term performance. Ok only my wishfull thinking! AD has no intention on clamping down on expenses he just wants to draw attention away from the issue.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 12:27 PM 1 Comments

Dead cat flop

Land Registry: August -0.1%

The data for August shows a fairly flat market with a monthly house price change of -0.1 per cent. The average property in England and Wales is now worth £155,968. The annual rate of decline is continuing to slow with an annual movement of -9.4 per cent. This is up from a low of approximately -16 per cent experienced in February this year. Property transactions averaged 41,911 sales per month in the months March to June 2009. In the same period a year earlier, the average was higher, at 60,997 sales per month.

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 11:37 AM 30 Comments

More pent up supply

BBC: Property boosts Arsenal profits

The company that owns Arsenal Football Club has reported higher profits, with property sales proving as important as football. Arsenal said that it had now sold 445 of the 655 private apartments in its Highbury Square redevelopment of its former grounds in North London.

Posted by jack c @ 11:23 AM 0 Comments

Equity release providers now getting squeezed out of market

Moneymarketing: Saffron latest to pull out of equity release

Saffron Building Society has become the latest equity release provider to temporarily pull out of the sector. Money Marketing understands that the provider has chosen to pull its lifetime mortgage range for the rest of the year after it reached a satisfactory level of lending. Its website says its equity release proposition is "under review". This comes after both Coventry Building Society and Retirement Plus revealed they were to temporarily cease equity release lending. Also, multi-tied advisers Newcastle Building Society Equity Release Advisers and In Retirement Services have ceased doing business over the last two months.

Posted by jack c @ 11:12 AM 0 Comments

What will HIPs name be changed to?

HIP Consultant: Mike Ockenden (AHIPP) interview - the future of HIPs

An interesting interview with the driving force of the HIP indusctry. It looks as if HIPs maybe possibly be changed if Conservatives win the election, any bets on the new name that they will take?

Posted by kaz @ 10:54 AM 1 Comments

Off topic - A good time to buy oil shares?

Times: Iran test fires nuclear missile capable of hitting Israel and parts of Europe

Iran has fired one of the longest-range missiles in its arsenal as part of testing it began ahead of a confrontation with foreign powers over a previously undisclosed secret nuclear facility later this week.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:24 AM 31 Comments

Excellent article suggesting we re-introduce Schedule A taxation

Adam Smith Institute: Yes, let's tax home-ownership

... and reduce income tax rates accordingly. For my part, I'd use any new property tax to replace Council Tax, Inheritance Tax, Stamp Duty and the TV licence fee, and then move on to cutting other taxes, but hey.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:18 AM 9 Comments

Comedy Club chief latest

Moneyfacts: Surge in interest from first time investors

Property investment advisors Assetz has reported an increase in the number of first time investors venturing back into the market. Following reports last December that seasoned investors were returning to the market, Assetz has seen an increase in the number of new investors entering the fray over the second and third quarter of 2009. The sudden surge has meant substantial decreases in discounts at property auctions. Stuart Law, Chief Executive of Asset, commented: "At the end of 2008, large-scale, professional, cash-rich investors recognised that distressed property prices had reached their lowest point. However, the majority of consumers were more cautious about the direction of the market."

Posted by jack c @ 09:56 AM 6 Comments

Hometrack: +0.2% MoM, -5.6% YoY

Telegraph: House prices edge ahead, but only in the South

House prices edged ahead by 0.2 per cent during September, as the number of people looking to rent a home has also picked up.The market continued to recover more quickly in southern regions than northern ones. Only 15 per cent of postcode areas saw an increase during September, with prices unchanged in more than four fifths of the country.

Posted by little professor @ 08:54 AM 1 Comments

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Fees slashed but shops still struggle and many have closed

Independent.ie: Retail rental market now close to collapse

The stark findings of a "strictly confidential report'' by Retail Excellence Ireland on the state of the Irish commercial property market reveals that the rental market for commercial property is in freefall. The report claims the situation for retail outlets is now so bad that in 60 per cent of Ireland's major shopping centres landlords are voluntarily reducing rents by up to half.

Posted by devo @ 09:13 PM 8 Comments

More than half a million homeowners have been trying to sell their property for longer than 6 months

FT: Homeowners struggling to offload property: survey

A survey by the website that aims to match property buyers and sellers, discovered that 555,000 people had been trying to sell their homes for more than half a year, while 370,000 had been doing so for more than a year. The total current value of property on the market for six months or more is estimated at £86.5bn, with £57.6bn of that being on the 'for sale' list for at least a year, it said.

Posted by jack c @ 06:05 PM 31 Comments

Gloomy forecasts for proerty prices

Moneymarketing: There's a bear in the house

Lee Jones reports on some gloomy forecasts for property prices as mortgage lending stays tight

Posted by jack c @ 05:46 PM 0 Comments

MM Panel views on UK Housing Market

Moneymarketing: Blip or Flip?

Moneymarketing mortgage brief panel assess whether the recent rises in property prices represent a true turn around or a short lived boost

Posted by jack c @ 05:38 PM 0 Comments

Many commentators predict "revival is unsustainable"

Moneymarketing: Prices could take a knock

Tanya Powley reports that although house prices are reported as rising at present, many in the industry consider it a false dawn as increasing supply on the market is set to see property prices tumbling again over the coming years.

Posted by jack c @ 05:20 PM 0 Comments

Brown On The Anrew Marr show

BBC News: Gordon Brown on UK debt levels

I have never seen such a blatant display of lying before. Just warming up for the annual conference.

Posted by wdbeast @ 01:22 PM 28 Comments

Wanna buy a house? Tread carefully!

Independent: Buying a repossession could land you a bargain – or a shocking money pit

"You'll need to have your finances in place before auction day. With such a tight timeframe, there is a real risk that finance could fall through after auction day, and you'll lose your deposit. Arrange an agreement in principle with your lender. A 10 per cent deposit is expected on the day, with the remaining 90 per cent required within 28 days".

Posted by alan @ 12:49 PM 1 Comments

Borrowers' Satisfaction Improves by 4%

E1 News: Which? Money Reports Increased Customer Mortgage Satisfaction

survey recently conducted by a magazine, Which? Money, a unit of the British consumer group, Which?, showed that the proportion of UK borrowers who are satisfied with the process of mortgage arrangement increased by 4% (from 58% to 62%) in the course of a year.

Posted by depositer00 @ 12:16 PM 0 Comments

You couldn't make this stuff up!

Telegraph: Gordon Brown's plan to win back the middle classes

'Mr Brown will argue at Labour’s annual conference on Tuesday that it is “fair and responsible” to bring in a Fiscal Responsibility Act that will legally commit current and future ministers to bring down the debt'. This makes me unbelievably angry...

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:04 AM 27 Comments

Share prices up up and away?

Business News Network: Danielle Park on Overbought, Overvalued Markets

Apologies to b/wether who posted this link in response to a comment of mine in an earlier thread. One more blip up or a major rise in store? As i said in the earlier thread i like the quote .. "i have a hard time predicting insanity".

Posted by techieman @ 09:53 AM 7 Comments

Risky assets stumble

Investment Postcards: Investment Postcards from Cape Town: Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (September 21 – 27, 2009)

After hitting its best levels of the year on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) communiqué, the S&P 500 Index ran into heavy weather on the realization that the Fed could start scaling back on emergency support of the economy. US equities dropped further later in the week on renewed concerns about the state of the troubled housing market and weaker-than-expected durable goods orders. Read more about this, together with some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators during the past week, in the weekly “Words from the Wise” review: http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/09/27/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-september-21-%E2%80%93-27-2009/

Posted by prieur du plessis @ 09:50 AM 0 Comments

Call this a "V-shaped" recovery if you want. Markets are pricing in economic growth that is not occu

The Telegraph: Money figures show there's trouble ahead

Private credit is contracting on both sides of the Atlantic. The M3 money data is flashing early warning signals of a deflation crisis next year in nearly half the world economy. Emergency schemes that have propped up spending are being withdrawn, gently or otherwise.

Posted by devo @ 12:57 AM 11 Comments

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Go Liam:

The Telegraph: No reform, just a cosmetic patch for a discredited, flawed regime

'The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly,' said the Victorian philosopher Herbert Spencer, 'is to fill the world with fools'.

Posted by devo @ 11:54 PM 1 Comments

We know it but do "they"?

Lovemoney.com: Don't be suckered into buying property

"Friends who missed the opportunity to buy property when it was still affordable ended up buying rubbish flats in dodgy areas at unmentionable prices - if they could afford to buy at all." "It still costs too much! The average first-time buyer property has fallen slightly since the start of the year, by nearly £6,000 to £154,205. But with finance tight, that still leaves the average first-timer needing a £55,700 deposit to be eligible for the best mortgage deals. That is down from £66,900 in January, but still absolutely outrageous. When I bought my first flat in south-east London back in 1997, my deposit was just £10,000 on a property valued at £87,000." Lots of Comments that may be of interest.

Posted by techieman @ 10:09 PM 12 Comments

Need a new kitchen - remortgage not an option - hows about a kidney!

Times: Cash-strapped sell their kidneys to pay off debts

Amongst others a 43-year-old taxi driver from Lancashire wants to sell a kidney to raise cash to pay off some of his mortgage and buy a new kitchen.

Posted by enuii @ 09:35 PM 3 Comments

False Flag

The Telegraph: Iran's nuclear ambitions threaten economic meltdown

The biggest threat to recovery in the world economy has long seemed to me to be not that of a further leg in the financial crisis or even the fiscal ruination of developed economies, but some kind of geo-political shock, most likely emanating from Iran.

Posted by devo @ 08:43 PM 9 Comments

Depression levels?

Las vegas sun: Nevada’s jobless rate could hit 17 percent

If one were to consider other factors, such as those workers who have just given up or have had their full-time hours cut to part time, the jobless rate is probably at 20 percent or one-fifth of the workforce. Restrepo said that figure, largely unreported, could hit 23 percent.

Posted by mark @ 03:30 PM 1 Comments

Indian Moon Rocket Discovers Water on the Moon — While British Taxpayers Feed India’s Poor

BNP: Indian Moon Rocket Discovers Water on the Moon — While British Taxpayers Feed India’s Poor

In desperation for a good and relevant article on the economy, I decided to read the literature of the dark side! Perhaps worth a read, comments welcome I guess.

Posted by new_order @ 03:06 PM 14 Comments

UK Property Investments Under-Protected

E1 News: UK Property Investments Under-Protected

According to a research carried out by one of British mortgage brokerage agencies – the Money Centre – a worrying number of UK landlords have not taken sufficient measures to secure their investment and to protect it from risks should anything bad happen (death, illness, disability or loss of income).

Posted by james cornell @ 02:42 PM 1 Comments

Double bubble

FT: A risky revival

“It’s the last game of pass the parcel. When the tech bubble burst, balance sheet problems were passed to the household sector [through mortgages]. This time they are being passed to the public sector [through governments’ assumption of banks’ debts]. There’s nobody left to pass it to in the future.”

Posted by letthemfall @ 01:45 PM 2 Comments

Another bank goes down....

Cnn: Georgia bank is 95th to fail this year

Atlanta-based Georgian Bank was closed by state regulators Friday, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, becoming the 95th to fail in the nation this year.

Posted by mark @ 09:54 AM 7 Comments

Landlord Assist Expects UK Housing Market to Recover Shortly

E1 News: UK Buy to Let Market to Recover Soon – Landlord Assist

The latest information presented by Landlord Assist, British service for tenant eviction and rent arrears collection, suggests that the Brtitish buy to let market is on the verge of recovery. Landlord Assist reacted to the recent report compiled by one of the online buy to let sources, which revealed a 50% increase in the number of buy to let mortgages since last August.

Posted by uch1405 @ 09:19 AM 1 Comments

Property Tax

A.a.

100%

The Guardian: Willing to share? Then here's a 100% mortgage

Could this signal the return of 100% mortgages? For the first time in more than 18 months, first-time buyers will be able to get on to the property ladder without having to put down a deposit, following the unveiling this week of a shared-ownership scheme.

Posted by cass @ 08:08 AM 0 Comments

Friday, September 25, 2009

Heseltine attacks 'mad mansion tax'

BBC Question Time: Heseltine attacks 'mad mansion tax'

Lord Heseltine gets into a war of words with the Lib Dem spokesman on children, schools and families, David Laws, over the proposed "mansion tax", claiming an "ordinary terrace" - not a mansion - costs £1m in London.

Posted by doomwatch @ 09:05 PM 27 Comments

And now the fun starts

Reuters: Recievers take over trophy London offices

Receivers have been appointed to manage seven trophy London office buildings owned by billionaire Simon Halabi, real estate company CB Richard Ellis (CBG.N) said on Friday. The buildings are part of a portfolio of assets that back a 1.15 billion pound securitisation which has gone sour after the value of the underlying assets collapsed.

Posted by mark @ 07:50 PM 1 Comments

W Shaped Recovery Equals More Falls To Come

MoneyWeek: Investors are right to be worried – we’re heading for a correction

But now that valuations are looking a little bit peaky in some of the more economically-sensitive stocks, many investors aren't feeling quite as gung-ho. "The market is very susceptible to anything that puts into question the recovery," as Barry Lorenzo of US investment bank Kaufman Brothers told Marketwatch. And it seems the latest US housing data was just the thing to knock the bulls off their stride...

Posted by sybil13 @ 06:37 PM 13 Comments

Fred Harrison - The man the mainstream economists fear

YouTube: The Silver Bullet - Part II

Economists say there is no Silver Bullet - there is. The anti poverty movement have not yet understood the secret to killing poverty this film might help....

Posted by powerofnow @ 05:09 PM 19 Comments

Martin Wolf rocks!

Financial Times: Why Cable’s mansions tax is right

"... the batty Lib Dem idea is not Mr Cable’s “mansion tax”, but replacing council tax with a local income tax. Taxation of property should be heavier, not lighter. But it should also be less regressive. That is why the mansion tax is the germ of an excellent idea. Property taxes are economically desirable, though the best such tax is on site value, rather than on completed development. What makes such taxes attractive is that they bear not on effort, but on “rent” – value over and above the economic costs of production. Income tax, by contrast, bears on successful effort... people will bleat about the injustice done to the house-rich, income-poor elderly. My reaction is: tough...

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 04:57 PM 10 Comments

The Banks got off lightly

Ft.com: Financial groups hit by surge in loan losses

One in three dollars lent by non-bank institutions such as hedge funds, securitisation vehicles and pension funds to sectors including real estate, went sour

Posted by cynicalsoothsayer @ 12:31 PM 2 Comments

Car sales run out of fuel

BBC News: Car output falls 31.5% in August

The number of new cars made in the UK fell 31.5% in August from the same month a year earlier, industry figures have shown. There were 56,737 cars made last month, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said. But the number of cars built for the UK market reached a near five-year high as the car scrappage scheme boosted sales. The SMMT called for the scheme, which was introduced in May, to be extended, saying recovery was still fragile. The drop in production was bigger than the 17.9% fall seen in July, but many car plants have extended shutdowns in August. Funds running out The UK car scrappage scheme pays a £2,000 incentive to new car buyers who scrap a vehicle that is more than 10 years old. It is currently due to end in February, or when the £300m the government

Posted by exiges @ 12:14 PM 3 Comments

Seems the Wilsons have done their maths.

Bloomberg.com: Landlord 'King' sells before rate rise slaughter

The Wilsons - Buy to Let 'Kings' are selling because they expect Landlord will be slaughtered over future interest rate rises.

Posted by will @ 10:49 AM 39 Comments

Bidwells Puts a Unique Piece of Land On Sale

E1 News: Unique Forest in Bude for Sale

According to Bidwells, a UK agency specialising in various property services from sales of houses and land to estate management, a large forest, the territory of which counts more than 1,700 acres has been put on sale for more than £1.3 million.

Posted by farmerjohn12 @ 10:45 AM 6 Comments

Wonder how much of this went on in the UK?

Las vegas sun: Homebuyers, union allege deception by builders

A group of 18 homebuyers and the Laborers International Union of North America charged Thursday in Las Vegas that Pulte Homes Corp. and other builders harmed buyers during the housing boom by inducing them into purchasing homes at inflated values and with unaffordable mortgages.

Posted by mark @ 10:07 AM 0 Comments

Boosting exports or increasing inflation on food?

Times: Sterling descends and Bank of England Governor helps to talk it down

More from the misguided old fool at the BOE: ''Speaking to The Journal, the Newcastle newspaper, Mr King said that the significant decline in the value of sterling in recent months “will be helpful” in rebalancing Britain’s economy by helping to boost exports.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:25 AM 10 Comments

A taste of things to come?

Telegraph: Spain tips into depression

Spain is sliding into a full-blown economic depression with unemployment approaching levels not seen since the Second Republic of the 1930s and little chance of recovery until well into the next decade, according to a clutch of reports over recent days.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 07:43 AM 33 Comments

Ombudsman Puts Lloyds Banking Group On Its Black List

E1 News: Lloyds and Barclays Top Ombudsman’s Complaints List

According to the website of the Financial Services Ombudsman, the “Complaints data on financial businesses” is the focus of the week. The Ombudsman placed the Lloyds Banking Group on the top of its “black” list, thus causing immediate reaction from the bank’s management.

Posted by uch1405 @ 07:38 AM 1 Comments

51 foxes guarding the hen house. What can go wrong?

FT: ‘Enforcer’ for UK banks’ toxic asset scheme

Alistair Darling will on Friday appoint a Treasury “enforcer” to oversee the biggest and perhaps riskiest deal the government has signed: the £585bn toxic asset insurance scheme. Stephan Wilcke, a former management consultant and private equity boss, will lead a team of up to 50 staff to enforce the insurance contract and ensure that Britain’s part- nationalised banks properly manage their impaired loans.

Posted by devo @ 06:26 AM 2 Comments

A contributor to the upward blip?

The Times: A year on, the hard lessons are still unlearnt

The scaffolding is rising once more as houses are knocked together. “We are getting e-mails ending in gs.com again,” a Savills’ agent said. Goldman Sachs partners are itching to move to houses with swimming pools using this year’s bonus. Property prices in Kensington and Chelsea have gone up by 22 per cent since February.

Posted by becky @ 12:00 AM 5 Comments

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Be Prepared

The Telegraph: Bank of England's Mervyn King says HBOS and RBS came within hours of collapse

Mr King describes the consequences of letting the banks fail. “Individuals would not have had access to the money in that bank. Their deposits would have been frozen. The accounts would have not been there for salaries to be paid in to, so many people would not have been paid their salary. ‘‘In turn, they wouldn’t have been able to pay bills to businesses so the businesses would have found that their flow of payments would have come to an end.’’

Posted by devo @ 09:33 PM 22 Comments

Chinese get it right

Reuters: China home prices to ease, boding well for economy

"Worried by the spike in house prices, authorities in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities attempted to curb speculation by introducing measures in July to make it harder for people to apply for second mortgages." Pity the title didn't say UK instead of China and it was the UK Government who had taken action to lower house (or home - as in title) prices.

Posted by thirdeye @ 09:26 PM 0 Comments

Viewings rise brings sales hope

Bbc news: Viewings rise brings sales hope

Viewings of properties at the more expensive end of the housing market in Wales are on the rise, according to some industry insiders. The Cardiff office of estate agent Savills has reported a 167% rise in viewings in July and August. Chartered surveyors Cooke and Arkwright said it was witnessing a "phenomenal recovery" compared to last year.

Posted by it will happen @ 09:03 PM 3 Comments

The report breaks a four-month streak of increases with a dip of 2.7% in August.

Money cnn: Existing home sales slide unexpectedly

"This is an unpleasant surprise," said Ian Shepherdson, economist at High Frequency Economics, in a research note. The NAR report said August home sales hit a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.1 million units, down from 5.24 million in July. That's well below the analyst consensus estimate of 5.35 million annual units compiled by Briefing.com.

Posted by mark @ 07:18 PM 0 Comments

Here comes inflation! High time to get out of sterling and cash?

FT: Appetite for UK inflation-linked bonds soars

"Investors overwhelmed the UK with demand for inflation-linked bonds yesterday amid signs that many fund managers are worried about prices surging out of control in the next few years. The UK government sold £5bn of 2050 inflation-linked bonds at a yield of 0.54 per cent with order books two times subscribed as demand rose to £10bn."

Posted by jvm @ 04:35 PM 16 Comments

If you are long stocks read this

FT Alphaville: This bank-engineered equity rally

"Moonraker Fund Management, the independent investment boutique, is concerned that banks may have been using their bailout money to buy equities, helping to fuel a rally that is vulnerable to a major correction if they consequently sell in thinly traded markets."... Another valid point - "The banks have every right to use the money they borrow in any way they choose. But it would be good to know how much of the bailout money has been used to buy equities." - it is taxpayer money after all...

Posted by mountain goat @ 01:19 PM 4 Comments

The housing market hasn't hit bottom yet

MoneyWeek: The housing market hasn't hit bottom yet

On the surface, things are looking up for property. Mortgage approvals are up and housebuilders are raising money. But the housing market is still in a very bad way. And it's going to get worse before it gets better.

Posted by damien @ 11:57 AM 1 Comments

Beat you to it Mark!

BBC: Jag to shut Midlands plant

Jaguar Land Rover has said it will close one of its plants in the West Midlands after 2014. The firm is considering the closure of either its Castle Bromwich plant in Birmingham or its factory in Solihull.

Posted by smugdog @ 11:56 AM 0 Comments

4 countries in recovery

CNN: 6 countries in recovery

UK is a bit behind with the recovery. Signs of life, er...

Posted by eeyore @ 11:03 AM 0 Comments

LSE cuts 12 percent of staff

Yahoo: LSE cuts 12 percent of staff

The LSE said the reduction in headcount in Britain and Italy will provide cost savings of 11 million pounds per year, starting from the second half of the financial year ending March 2010

Posted by mark @ 09:34 AM 3 Comments

Really? So is all the free money for them from the Treasury & Bank of England going to stop then?

BBC: Darling says party over for banks

The Badger says that bankers should change their own behaviour. Yes, I think an appeal to bankers' good natures and altruistic senses should supr them into action. No really, I'm sure they'll change their spots now. That'll show them!

Posted by paul @ 09:30 AM 8 Comments

Where exactly will the political will for interest rate rises come from?

ThisIsMoney: MPC expects 'sharp rise' in inflation

Don't worry about the coming rise in inflation we are being told. It will not require any 'policy measures' (i.e. raising of interest rates). Funny how nowadays, all inflationary rises are defined as temporary spikes not needed corresponding rate rises and all falls in inflation present a deflationary threat requiring an urgent expansion of quantitative easing! Crisis meetings here and there ... is it time to end this boom and bust cycle the Bank of England creates, let the Old Lady retire and hand the reins of interest rate setting to the ECB?

Posted by paul @ 08:36 AM 52 Comments

Economists summoned to BoE

Telegraph: Bank calls 'crisis' meeting for experts

"The Bank will host a seminar of all London's major economists next Tuesday – the first time it has invited them in en masse in recent memory – in what has been construed as a sign that it fears market participants are starting to lose faith in its (QE) efforts to pump cash into the economy". Any suggestions?.

Posted by alan @ 08:15 AM 17 Comments

Recipe for HPI anyone? Or maybe a symptom of buying into the last round of madness ....

PA: A quarter 'struggle to pay bills'

One in four Britons are currently struggling to pay all of their essential bills, a survey has revealed. Skip related content Related photos / videos A quarter 'struggle to pay bills' Around 25% of people claim they can no longer afford all of their essential outgoings, including mortgage repayments and food, according to insurance specialist Bright Grey. A further 14% of people admitted their finances were so stretched that they would run into problems if their outgoings rose by just £50 a month, while 16% did not think they would be able to cope if they had to find an extra £100.

Posted by montesquieu @ 12:47 AM 17 Comments

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Redrow chairman cashes in Harrow Estates

Telegraph: Redrow chairman Steve Morgan defends deal for his business

Looks like another chairman/director is cashing in at the top of the dead cat bounce as Morgan cashes in his company founded in in 2001 that focuses on preparing brownfield sites for housing developments.

Posted by enuii @ 11:23 PM 0 Comments

But computerised credit scores did?

New Republic: Maybe Securitization Didn't Cause the Crisis

If you plot credit scores against the number of mortgages outstanding, you'll notice a peculiar pattern: instead of a smooth curve, at certain round-number scores there are big jumps in the number of people with mortgages. The typical loan officer didn't put much effort into checking up on people with scores higher than 620, because he knew these loans would be securitised off his books.

Posted by drewster @ 10:21 PM 1 Comments

Is Gordon hinting at something other than what most of us already know? If so what?

Guardian: Gordon Brown warns next six months will test the world

Gordon Brown chunners on at the UN assembly and declares that; "The great lesson of the last year is that only bold and global action prevented a recession becoming a depression. We have delivered a co-ordinated fiscal and monetary response that the International Labour Organisation estimates has saved 7- to 11 million jobs."

Posted by enuii @ 10:21 PM 8 Comments

An utterly contemptible and political manoeuvre of a scoundrel

Mail: Gordon Brown calls on banks to refund 'billions' in overdraft charges

''Gordon Brown has told the big banks they should refund billions of pounds to customers who were ripped off on overdraft charges.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:19 PM 6 Comments

They could have asked us!

Hansard: Parliamentary questions, 1 Sept 2009

Q: Sarah Teather: To ask the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government what the average length of time was between a home being placed on the market and being sold in the latest period for which figures are available. A: John Healey: We do not collect the data requested.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 07:42 PM 2 Comments

Defence slashed to keep housing bubble alive

BBC News: UK to cut Trident subs

The decision could cut around $5bn from the defence budget, but the government is keen to emphasise the contribution the decision will make to the nuclear disarmament debate. The proposed cuts come as the government searches for ways to reduce the massive deficit in public finances.

Posted by mken @ 07:14 PM 0 Comments

MPC Minutes: QE Pause (100%); no discussion on deposit rate reduction

Reuters: Sterling up, Sterling up, BoE minutes show unanimous QE pause

Sterling rallied on Wednesday after Bank of England minutes showed no policymakers voted to increase its asset buying plan and that cutting the interest paid on bank reserve deposits was not discussed. BoE Monetary Policy Committee members voted unanimously to keep the asset purchase programme at 175 billion pounds in September and to keep interest rates at a record low 0.5 percent, the minutes showed. They gave no indication the MPC had considered cutting the remuneration rate on commercial banks' deposits with the BoE -- an issue aired by Governor Mervyn King last week in testimony that markets took as offering a grim view on the UK economy.

Posted by 51ck-6-51x @ 05:07 PM 8 Comments

Jobs At Risk As O'Neill Surf Stores Go Under

Yahoo: Jobs At Risk As O'Neill Surf Stores Go Under

About 90 jobs have been placed at risk at O'Neill boardwear stores in the UK after owner Sandcity was placed into administration. Outdoor clothing firm Blacks Leisure, which owns Sandcity, decided there was "no reasonable prospect" of restoring the loss-making unit to profit.

Posted by mark @ 03:39 PM 3 Comments

Yes

Msn money: Will US repeat mistakes of 1937?

The emergency seemed to be over, however, and many in the New Deal, including Roosevelt's Treasury secretary, Henry Morgenthau, were deeply uncomfortable with the idea of running what looked very much like a permanent budget deficit. The annual deficit had peaked at $5.9 billion (yes, I know how quaint these numbers are in the days of trillion-dollar deficits), but it was still a shockingly high $5.5 billion in 1936. You have to do a bit of number crunching to realize exactly how high a $5.5 billion annual deficit seemed then. It represented 7.7% of GDP and a huge 110% of the federal government's total annual revenue.

Posted by mark @ 03:22 PM 2 Comments

Investors 'panic buy' other currencies as sterling slides

Telegraph.co.uk: Investors 'panic buy' other currencies as sterling slides l

People who need to buy foreign currency because they are purchasing overseas property or emigrating are bringing forward their purchases of euros and dollars because they fear sterling has further to fall, a currency trader has warned.

Posted by ben @ 01:52 PM 0 Comments

Pride comes before a fall...

Metro: Mortgage lending soars by 81% in one year

Mortgage lending by the major banks soared by 81 per cent August, in a further sign of the end of the recession. The British Bankers Association said the staggering rise was a reflection of the state of the slump a year ago. There were 38,095 mortgages approved for house purchases in August, compared with 21,001 in August last year. David Dooks, BBA statistics director, said: "The main high street banks' mortgage lending has stabilised in a market where other lenders are largely inactive. "Loans approved for house purchase have recovered to early-2008 levels, but low levels of customer demand and a limited number of properties coming on to the market will continue to moderate lending."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:49 AM 45 Comments

Aug08/aug08 mortgage appovals comparison

Bbc: Mortgage approvals up 81% in year

different spin on approvals dip from july to august

Posted by knitting_round_the_guillotine @ 10:38 AM 0 Comments

But i thought india was still in growth, we are told BS daily

Yahoo: World Bank grants $4.3 bln in loans to India

The World Bank has announced 4.3 billion dollars in loans to India, including 2.0 billion for the banking sector, to help strengthen its economy amid the global economic crisis. The World Bank said on Tuesday its executive board approved loans for projects in five countries, with the loans for India by far the largest.

Posted by mark @ 10:34 AM 2 Comments

Superb analysis from Faber.

Bloomberg: Faber Says U.S. Government May Fail in 5 to 10 Years

He also has some interesting tips on where to put your dosh.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:16 AM 2 Comments

Make Hay While The Sun Shines (For The Clouds They Are Gathering)

The Times: Property sector seeks £1.17bn in second wave of fundraising

Barratt Developments, Redrow and Liberty International all announced share issues today to bring down their debts and finance expansion in the second wave of fundraising to hit the sector. Barratt Developments will raise £720.5 million through a placing and rights issue as part of a deal with its banks to extend the due date on its debt. Today's rights issue is over £200 million more than the company was predicted to raise The company, which sells 1,000 houses a month and has £1.3 billion in debt, has said previously that it would not look to raise funds until markets had stabilised, but, with the housebuilding sector showing signs of improvement, it has decided to act.

Posted by charlie brooker @ 08:46 AM 1 Comments

Housing seen as a bad credit risk until prices drop further

Guardian: First-time buyers foiled as mortgages disappear

The subtext is pretty clear. If you want a first time buyer mortgage right now, you'll have to raise a bigger deposit so that the expected losses from nequity accrue to your deposit, not the mortgage.

Posted by paul @ 08:31 AM 0 Comments

Investors Return onto the Commercial Property Market

E1 News: UK Commercial Property Popular with Investors Again

As the economic situation in Great Britain and all over the world seems to be slowly easing, major British investors become active again. While some investors return on the commercial property market, others choose less risky ways of investment by putting moneu in expensive wines and rare coins.

Posted by depositer00 @ 08:17 AM 1 Comments

MSN poll shows low confidence in UK house prices

Msn: Three in four unconvinced by house price revival

"The majority of Brits believe the recent property market recovery is unsustainable, with more house price pain to follow. The market has seen a remarkable turnaround since spring: following 18 months of misery, banks started increasing their mortgage lending, buyers tentatively returned to the market and house prices rose marginally."

Posted by tim l @ 02:57 AM 13 Comments

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Moar money pls, kthxbye

Telegraph: Barratt and Redrow to tap shareholders for £850m

Housebuilders Barratt Developments and Redrow are to announce fund-raisings of £700m and £150m respectively, as they repair balance sheets that have been ravaged by the recession. It was thought Barratt was going to ask investors for a smaller amount of £500m next week. However, the company may have brought it forward when it emerged Redrow was to move earlier. Neither company would want to risk investor fatigue by being the last in the queue to ask for more cash. Four housebuilders have already tapped the market. Taylor Wimpey, Bovis, Berkeley Group and Bellway have raised a total of over £600m this year.

Posted by little professor @ 11:38 PM 3 Comments

Spending down...but wait...we are recovering....

BBC News: UK online spending fell by 10% in August compared with July

I like the way the BBC phrase the headline "'Shoes not booze' selling online "..,but in reality it should be "UK online spending fell by 10% in August compared with July with alcohol sales down but footwear purchases up, according to a survey." 10%...that is a significant amount.

Posted by thecountofnowhere @ 10:55 PM 1 Comments

Deficit

Telegraph: Weak sterling will deliver UK surplus

Broadbent of Goldman Sachs is of the opinion the devaluation of sterling will push into a permanent trade surplus, with expected interest rate rises and an 8% strengthening of the pound imminently. BNP Paribas forecasts an imminent crash against the euro. UK has overseas equity which has rallied recently. How low can sterling go?

Posted by stillthinking @ 10:43 PM 6 Comments

"Massive UK public-spending cuts, collapse of sterling or a strike by gilt buyers now inevitable"

FT: Artemis's Littlewood laments UK's 'broken finances'

William Littlewood, manager of the Artemis Strategic Assets fund, which gathered almost £150m during its offer period despite atrocious conditions, said the pound, the gilt market or the public sector "will go" after the government was forced to bail out the flailing capitalist system."The reason I don't like the pound is because of the broken finances in this country," he said. "You can't inflate your way out of £1,000bn in index-linked, contractually promised payments [to public sector employees]. Nor can you borrow £150bn-230bn without something at some stage giving. "For every £3 of revenue raised on taxes, the government is spending £4. This is a massive mismatch. The best you can hope for is going down the Japan route - you borrow and borrow, and the debt market doesn't care."

Posted by jack c @ 09:24 PM 4 Comments

Remember when woolies appointed advisors!!!

Bbc: Blacks to breach bank loan terms

It said it had appointed KPMG as an adviser to "evaluate the full range of options available".

Posted by mark @ 07:26 PM 2 Comments

They've fallen by ninety per cent, actually!

Metro: Mortgages for first-time buyers has fallen by 17%

Some interesting numbers here. Maybe Jack C can confirm or otherwise? "The average two-year fixed rate mortgage for someone with a 10% deposit has fallen by only 0.12% to 6.12% since September 2007, despite the Bank of England base rate dropping from 5.75% to a record low of just 0.5% during the same period... But borrowers with higher deposits have fared much better, with rates on two-year fixed rate loans for people with a 40% deposit falling by 1.86% during the past two-years to average 4.49%... The average margins over swap rates on these deals are also far lower at 2.62%, although this is still a steep increase from the 0.13% charged in September 2007." That equates to a 9.38% implied marginal interest rate on the top slice of 30% (i.e. 90% minus 60%).

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 04:34 PM 15 Comments

Borrowers are bailing out the banks (and the government)

Greg Pytel: author of expert evidence published by HoC Treasury Committee: Borrowers are bailing out the banks

The article points out that yesterday’s BBC Panorama uncovered a way by which the banks made borrowers (especially mortgage holders) pay for the costs of the current financial crisis. Effectively the current high borrowing costs introduced by the banks are a stealth tax designed to repay the government help for the banks and let take them back the ownership, for free, from the government’s hands. It is more to it than that. Highly recommended.

Posted by ant @ 03:58 PM 4 Comments

Mervyn and Gordon devalue their way out of recession and print their way out of debt

MoneyWeek: How to protect your wealth from the plunging pound

Why do the markets hate Sterling so much? It's pretty straightforward. The Bank of England very kindly spelled it out for the market in its latest quarterly bulletin. The Bank said that "changes to Britain's relative economic outlook, the perceived riskiness of its assets and the need for the economy to rebalance away from domestic consumption" had been the major factors in the pound's 20% slide over the past two years. In other words, Britain has fallen way down the global pecking order of economies you might want to invest in. And worse still, these changes might be permanent. The risk now is that the UK will be left behind in the global economic recovery and interest rates will be on hold for longer than most. We are in the best position to destroy the value of our currency.

Posted by drewster @ 03:41 PM 5 Comments

Market Manipulation in Ireland

The Motley Fool: Investors' Roundtable / Property - Markets and Trends

banks on both sides of the Atlantic are (anecdotally at least) holding on to large numbers of foreclosed properties to prevent the (rigged) market being taken down further than it already has been.

Posted by the number cruncher @ 02:25 PM 7 Comments

UK Lenders Find New Ways to Increase Mortgage Cost

E1 News: Halifax Hikes Mortgage Cost by Undervaluing Properties

It has become known lately that one of the largest British mortgage lenders – Halifax – undervalues properties despite the fact that the most recent reports demonstrate rise in house prices.

Posted by uch1405 @ 01:09 PM 14 Comments

History lesson

Vox: Toxic assets in the 18th century

Problems of regulation appear whenever financial innovations change the ways capital markets operate. This column describes the 18th century emergence of the inconvertible banknote, a "toxic asset” ended by government regulation. The lesson is that free financial markets promote financial innovation, but government must provide adequate regulation keeping the market on track.

Posted by mountain goat @ 12:33 PM 2 Comments

Dead cat stall

Goebbels: House sales 'stalled in August'

"UK house sales fell in August from July, the first drop this year, according to HM Revenue & Customs. Figures from HMRC show that 83,000 homes were sold last month, down from 87,000 in July."

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 11:29 AM 44 Comments

Maybe it's related to unaffordable housing....

Northampton Chronicle and Echo: Premium Article ! Your account has been frozen. For your available options click the below button. Options Premium Article ! To read this article in full you must have registered and have a Premium Content Subscription with the Northampton Chron & Echo si

Latest figures show the number of people on the council house waiting list in Northampton has increased by more than 70 per cent in the past 11 years. Time to legislate to being down house prices and ban BTL.

Posted by thecountofnowhere @ 11:03 AM 2 Comments

How many more will go before the election

HIP Consultant: Cheap Home Information Pack provider ceases trading

Those involved in the HIP industry are also struggling, caution seems sensible.

Posted by kaz @ 10:53 AM 0 Comments

1,373 in Britain at the Vauxhall brand

Yahoo: Magna to cut 4,000 Opel jobs in Germany: report

With the closure of the Antwerp plant, 2,517 workers will lose their jobs, FAZ said, with 2,090 more to go in Spain, 1,373 in Britain at the Vauxhall brand and 437 in Poland, the report said.

Posted by mark @ 10:47 AM 1 Comments

G. Wimpey Offers Great Deals for FTBs

E1 News: George Wimpey Sells Final Properties in the City Development

George Wimpey’s new property development, the City, located in Coventry, has seen the final phase launched, during which home buyers have a superb opportunity of purchasing their own apartment for a mere £64,397.

Posted by hj_1212 @ 09:53 AM 1 Comments

Tired of the government bailing out banks? Get ready for this: officials may soon ask banks to bail

New york times: F.D.I.C. May Borrow Funds From Banks

Under the law, the F.D.I.C. would not need permission from the Treasury to tap into a credit line of up to $100 billion. But such a step is said to be unpalatable to Sheila C. Bair, the agency chairwoman whose relations with the Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, have been strained. “Sheila Bair would take bamboo shoots under her nails before going to Tim Geithner and the Treasury for help,” said Camden R. Fine, president of the Independent Community Bankers. “She’d do just about anything before going there.”

Posted by mark @ 09:35 AM 0 Comments

Slap on the wrists for bubble bid riggers

Telegraph: OFT fines 103 construction firms £129.5m for bid rigging

The Office of Fair Trading has fined 103 construction companies £129.5m for rigging bids on projects across England, including schools and hospitals. Among those fined were big construction companies , including Kier and Interserve. Kier was given the biggest fine at £17.9m and Interserve the second biggest at £11.6m. A subsidiary of Balfour Beatty, Mansell, is to be fined £5.2m. Balfour Beatty said the anti-competitive behaviour took place before it bought the company.

Posted by mountain goat @ 09:29 AM 1 Comments

Stock up on baked beans as here comes inflation!

Daily Telegraph: Pound slides again as markets enter Bank of England-fuelled 'bubble' stage

Markets are now entering a bubble phase. However, the bubble is almost entirely dependent on the BoE quantitative easing (QE) policy, through which it is printing £175bn and pumping it into the system by buying Government debt. At some point QE will have to come to an end but, until it does, this bull market is sponsored by HMG. I'm sceptical about the market recovery given the fiscal environment we are in. Public spending is falling, consumer spending is down and unemployment will rise (as well as taxes). Many central banks have taken on a QE policy however, BoE has committed to creating and spending more than any other! Citigroup said yesterday that sterling would drop to parity against the euro in the coming months. Falling pound = higher food and energy costs!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 08:23 AM 11 Comments

Those behind the worm can do anything they want with the infected machines including stealing users'

Smh: Internet meltdown threat: Conficker worm refuses to turn

Internet meltdown threat: Conficker worm refuses to turn

Posted by chris @ 05:09 AM 1 Comments

Juma, a 25-year-old from the Baglan region of Afghanistan who arrived in the tent city last month af

Arabia.msn: 170 people have applied for asylum in Calais since June many are unwilling to, convinced -- rightly, say aid groups -- that Britain offers fairer treatment to would-be refugees.

He believes the spike suggests Paris and London reached a "deal" to clear the jungle of migrants before closing it down for good. Opposite the tent city's makeshift mosque, surrounded by pink geraniums in well-kept planters, white sheets flutter between poles with messages in French and Pashtun for the French authorities.

Posted by chris @ 04:03 AM 0 Comments

17 migrant camps and squats along the Channel coast, where hundreds of Iraqis, Afghans, Eritreans or

Smh: Lenoir estimates that 1,000 migrants managed to slip into Britain over a fortnight in late August and early September -- after months of a border police lockdown.

He believes the spike suggests Paris and London reached a "deal" to clear the jungle of migrants before closing it down for good.

Posted by ellen @ 03:45 AM 0 Comments

Afghan Migrants Brace For Eviction From French "Jungle":

Www.google.com: "But here we already made our place. We have our houses, our showers and our mosque," said the 24-year-old, who paid 15,000 dollars (10,000 euros) to journey to Europe via Pakistan and Istanbul.

Most have left for Britain, Belgium, Holland or Norway, the others have scattered into thin air," said Thomas Suel of Terre d'Errance, one of a coalition of local aid groups.

Posted by chris @ 03:31 AM 0 Comments

Monday, September 21, 2009

Headline of the Year (so far)

The Guardian: Jobless figures show demise of the slump may be exaggerated

It's a conundrum: central bank chiefs such as the Bank of England's Mervyn King and the US Federal Reserve's Ben Bernanke say the recession is over, yet unemployment on both sides of the Atlantic continues to rise rapidly, with Britain's jobless rate hitting a 13-year high of almost 2.5 million last week.

Posted by devo @ 11:42 PM 3 Comments

Mounting Deficits in the Midst of a Suckers Rally

Daily FX: British Pound Falls Despite Rise in UK Rightmove House Prices

Why oh why even in an article related to the "deteriorating fiscal health" of the UK do reporters still only report the 0.6% increase in ASKING prices on Rightmove rather than the FACT that even Rightmove have said in their latest HPI that the market is not going to recover until lending does and that is not likely to recover to 2007 levels for a decade or more if ever!! OK back to the article: "Standard & Poor’s already downgraded the UK’s credit outlook to “negative” from “stable” .... and while they’ve also said that they would reserve any judgment on potential downgrades until the next general election, mounting deficits don’t bode well for the nation’s golden AAA credit rating. "

Posted by sybil13 @ 11:37 PM 3 Comments

BTLers heading for exit = lower prices

Telegraph: Buy-to-let landlords 'finding it tougher to secure mortgages'

"Around 89pc of investors who tried to take out a mortgage on a buy-to-let property during the three months to the end of August said it was more difficult to get finance than during the previous three months." Tougher credit terms and a likely fall in property prices should put the brakes on the speculators. Ergh, oops, I meant business investors.

Posted by quiet guy @ 10:49 PM 2 Comments

Why Britain's house price crash is far from finished

This Is Money: Not over yet

The Economist magazine stood out for well-structured and early warnings of why the property market would crash in 2005. Price rises kept on coming for another two years, as did the warnings from The Economist. Their latest quarterly review has been released and captures succinctly why Britain's house price crash is far from over: In Britain house prices remain 170% higher than they were in 1997, but average earnings have risen by only 55% in the same period. British wages are unlikely to grow in any significant way for several years - due to slow economic growth, rising unemployment and higher taxes. So if the link between earnings and house prices is to be restored, then Japan's long-term performance (-35% over 12 years), is the best guide for where our house prices are headed.

Posted by little professor @ 07:30 PM 3 Comments

Lib Dem idea alreading meeting with resistance

Mortgagestrategy: Lib Dem tax would slash property values, claims CEBR

The Centre for Economics and Business Research argues that the Liberal Democrats' plans to tax homes worth over £1m would actually end up forcing property values down. Vince Cable, treasury spokesman for the Liberal Democrats, is set to unveil his plans for a property tax on the wealthy later today at the party’s annual conference in Bournemouth. The charge would be applied at 0.5% for properties with a value over £1m and the party has calculated that £1.25bn could be raised via the tax. Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of the CEBR, says: “What they have failed to appreciate is that such a tax would have a major effect on house prices...........

Posted by jack c @ 03:24 PM 34 Comments

RBS desperate?

Bloomberg: RBS Said to Gauge Interest in $8.1 Billion Share Sale

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Britain’s biggest government-controlled bank, is in talks with shareholders to gauge the appetite for a potential rights offering

Posted by ftb david @ 02:46 PM 0 Comments

Rightmove Reports House Price Changes

E1 News: UK Property Asking Prices Rise in September

Latest report published by the British property company – Rightmove Plc – suggests that British property asking prices increased as a result of improved market confidence of home sellers and decreased supply of marketed properties.

Posted by rick bales @ 12:51 PM 0 Comments

So much for GB cracking down on tax havens

BBC: Tax inquiry into Lloyds off-shore

Lloyds Banking Group is being investigated by British tax officials over allegations that wealthy clients are being encouraged to avoid UK taxes by channelling money through China, a BBC Panorama investigation reveals

Posted by inbreda @ 11:24 AM 7 Comments

Housing crash is back on...

Investor's Chronicle: Is the UK poised for sustained recovery?

Interesting head to head about the economy, but read the Property Portfolio guy's comments near the end: "...it is likely that a second - and prolonged - fall in prices is imminent."

Posted by chrisch @ 11:12 AM 0 Comments

When the life support is withdrawn...

Bloomberg: Housing Suffering Relapse Confronts Bernanke Credit Conundrum

'The recovering housing market may be heading for a relapse as President Barack Obama and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke consider ending support for the source of the global financial crisis.' Interesting to see how much if this rally is actually an illusion

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:05 AM 0 Comments

Times spin on Rightmove latest

Times: Homeowners avoid selling up amid dwindling supplies of houses available to buy

Fewer homeowners are putting their properties on the market, despite a reported rise in average houses prices, as they struggle to find decent alternative homes to buy. Rightmove, the property search website, reports that, for every eight homes now put up for sale, the equivalent of ten are being sold, or are being withdrawn by sellers who are unable to secure the few good homes they could buy. The website reveals today that average asking prices are now just 1.5 per cent lower than a year ago, at £223,996, after jumping 0.6 per cent in the month to September 12.

Posted by jack c @ 10:02 AM 42 Comments

Only a billion

Evening Standard: Government asked to pay off £800m Olympic land debt

The olympic development has debts of 800 million on the regeneration site. The government wants London to pick up the tab, and Boris on behalf of London wants the government to pick up the tab. If London gets the debt then council taxes will have to rise. There is one advantage to the absence of social housing provision under Labour, they did not make a huge loss building properties in the bubble.

Posted by stillthinking @ 09:21 AM 4 Comments

Anatole - very good at getting it very wrong

Times: Economic policymakers should sit tight until 2011

Some great comments at the foot of the page.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:55 AM 5 Comments

RM's Latest

Independent: Better house price numbers mask pain in most of the UK

"Mr Shipside added that he believed the market had reached a crossroads. "Confidence is up, stock is down and the number of people searching is high – there are lots of positives, but too few buyers can put down the 40 per cent deposits that are needed in order to secure the best mortgage deals," he said. "Finance greases the wheels of the property market and it is anybody's guess when we might see the necessary level of competitive funding return."" Well Miles Shipside's guess last month was that it would be YEARS before funding would return and approvals would still be down at 2006 levels in 2013

Posted by sybil13 @ 08:45 AM 5 Comments

Is this a type of LVT?

BBC News: Lib Dem plan for £1m-property tax

The Lib Dems are to outline plans for a tax on owners of £1m-plus homes, using the proceeds to help low-paid workers. Treasury spokesman Vince Cable will announce plans for a 0.5% annual levy on the most expensive homes, raising £1bn, at the party conference later.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 07:19 AM 11 Comments

The paradox

The Telegraph: Bank of England warns of the consequences of thrift

It says in its latest Quarterly Bulletin that household decisions to spend or save will have major consequences for the economic outlook, because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of total spending in the UK. The Bank also reveals in the Bulletin that, from July 24 to August 4, the Bank did not buy any corporate bonds after receiving no offers in five consecutive auctions.

Posted by devo @ 07:12 AM 12 Comments

BTL Lending Sees New Cuts

E1 News: Lloyds banking Group Cuts its Buy to Let Lending

The Lloyds Banking Group, one of the largest British mortgage lenders announced that it has imposed new standards on the buy to let properties it will lend against, thus making it harder for buy to let landlords and investors to get a mortgage loan.

Posted by jess56 @ 06:37 AM 0 Comments

New "Cheap" Mortgage Deal Launched by Woolwich

E1 News: Woolwich Introduces a Cheap Mortgage Deal

As we have already reported, UK lenders – banks and building societies – have recently started a new battle against each other. They attempt to attract as much cash-rich borrowers as possible by offering mortgage deals at record low interest rates. However, mortgage brokers and other mortgage industry experts say that these low interest rates do not mean that mortgages have become more affordable for general public.

Posted by jess56 @ 06:35 AM 0 Comments

David Smith knows basic economics! Higher transaction costs = fewer transactions

Times: Hips hobble house sales

A key question in the housing market is whether the shortage of properties on agents’ books is temporary, to be shortly followed by a big increase in supply for voluntary and involuntary reasons, the latter including rising unemployment. There are many reasons why owners have been reluctant sellers, but one is the so-called “Hips hurdle”. In the past, a fifth of sales were “speculative”, with sellers putting their property on the market to see what they could get and, if they found something they liked, move. These no longer exist, and we are now operating at half the stock levels of 2008, with two-thirds the applicants. Perhaps the answer is that we have moved to a permanently lower level of buying and selling activity. And government intervention is partly to blame.

Posted by drewster @ 03:20 AM 6 Comments

Some house price news for a change

Reuters: House prices +0.6% MoM, -1.5% YoY - Rightmove

Rightmove's latest survey shows asking prices rose 0.6% in September, following a 2.2% fall last month. Although it seems nowadays people have monopolized this blog for posting right/left wing political articles and squabbling about Gordon Brown, rather than anything to do with house prices..

Posted by little professor @ 12:23 AM 10 Comments

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Money to prop up banks and pay bonuses to come from school budgets.

Sky News: Teacher Unions' Fury At School Spending Cuts

Ed Balls is the first cabinet minister to set out how the cuts - which the Prime Minister has now publicly conceded are needed - would affect services. Up to 3,000 senior school staff could be axed, including heads and deputies. Christine Blower, general secretary of the National Union of Teachers (NUT), told Sky News "the idea you can get rid of heads of primary schools, and the idea that heads and deputy heads can be categorised as bureaucrats - I'm afraid that's just nonsense."

Posted by devo @ 11:09 PM 13 Comments

Orders from Oslo - cancel the house price crash

Guardian: Norway's sovereign wealth fund: £259bn and growing

Norway's massive sovereign wealth fund, the world's third largest, is about to hit the UK property market. It's enough to turn a bear's head. "The fund's exposure to the UK will soon increase further, as Slyngstad is planning to invest into the UK property market in the coming months. "The UK is the first [property] market we will go into," he says. "I will be surprised if we are not present by summer next year." He adds: "Our presence will be probably take the shape of a joint-venture with a real-estate company." Talks with major property companies in the UK are ongoing, but Slyngstad isn't naming names.

Posted by tpbeta @ 09:46 PM 1 Comments

Late Brezhnev era in finance

Greg Pytel: author of expert evidence published by HoC, Treasury Committee: Late Brezhnev era in finance

Another excellent short, thoughtful and witty analysis putting the current state of the financial industry into historical perspective. Really worth reflecting.

Posted by andrewt @ 04:44 PM 2 Comments

Deeper recession in the offing?

Observer: The Tories are wrong to talk about cuts in public spending

A warning that deep cuts will deepen the recession

Posted by letthemfall @ 12:13 PM 19 Comments

The numbers are so large that most people will not understand them!

Tell us the truth about the depth of our debt crisis: Daily Telegraph

Today, the national debt stands at £804.4 billion, equivalent to more than £25,000 for every family in Britain. Ouch, but not every family has a job so how about telling us how much each tax payer has to pay back - or is that to scary to say?

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 11:59 AM 12 Comments

Up to 3,000 senior school staff could be axed as Children's Secretary Ed Balls reveals £2bn of cuts

Yahoo: Top Teachers To Go In £2bn Of Schools Cuts

Mr Balls is the first cabinet minister to set out how the cuts - which the Prime Minister has now publicly conceded are needed - would affect public services. The job losses will include heads and deputies, as well as bureaucrats, and could be made as schools are merged into "federations" run by a single team, Mr Balls tells The Sunday Times.

Posted by mark @ 10:18 AM 13 Comments

Stocks march to highs for year

Investment Postcards: Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (September 14 – 20, 2009)

Marking the one-year anniversary of the Lehman Brothers demise, risky assets last week again marched higher to the tune of economic data supporting the argument of a global economic recovery. A realization among investors that the economic transition from recession to recovery was gaining momentum, resulted in many global stock markets scaling fresh peaks for the year. Read more about this, together with some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators during the past week, in the weekly “Words from the Wise” review: http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/09/20/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-september-14-%E2%80%93-20-2009/

Posted by prieur du plessis @ 09:40 AM 0 Comments

Unemployment ISN'T a lagging indicator this time.

The Telegraph: Why the jobs crisis isn't a disaster - yet

Employers who detect a pick-up in business will at first respond by getting their existing staff to work longer hours.

Posted by devo @ 12:00 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Gordons 'fireside chat' podcast

BBC News: PM in 'life support' economy plea

Gordon Brown attempts to emulate Franklin Roosevelt's "fireside chat" broadcasts in the 1930s and 1940s.

Posted by enuii @ 10:25 PM 8 Comments

Bear food at last

Findaproperty.com: Jones Lang LaSalle UK Residential Market Forecast September 2009: Highlights

"The unforeseen and seemingly irrational pick-up in prices has altered the outlook for UK house prices."

Posted by bystander @ 09:40 PM 0 Comments

Don't Miss Out

Timesonline: Tempus: shares will shrug off the stock market stupor

VI's ramping the market, sound familiar. All markets are based on sentiment, get in now before its too late. Feed the fear and watch the profits roll in. Any thoughts?????

Posted by bystander @ 09:10 PM 1 Comments

Weekend bank closures

Cnn: Bank failure toll reaches 94

Regulators close subsidiaries of Irwin Financial Corporation in Kentucky and Indiana at a cost of $850 million to the FDIC

Posted by mark @ 07:38 PM 0 Comments

New Labour: a cunning plan of Old Labour

Greg Pytel: an author of expert evidence published by the HoC Treasury Committee: New Labour: a cunning plan of Old Labour

Interesting, thought provoking and witty epitaph to a New Labour era characterised by great increase in house prices (and raising social expectations) and New Labour love of the City.

Posted by andrewt @ 03:49 PM 0 Comments

The cannon fodder wade into the stock market.

FT: Surge in trading by small investors

Can their be any more obvious sign that the bull trap on the stock exchanges is nearing its conclusion. Every Ponzi bubble needs a victim. Step forward, day trader. "Stock market trading by small investors has surged to levels last seen during the “dotcom” boom, with many thousands of people buying into the strong recovery in shares that on Friday sent the FTSE 100 to its highest this year. Some of the country’s biggest brokers say a “tide” of individual investors – frustrated with the low interest rates on offer in cash savings accounts and wary of buying into property – have turned to equities in the hope of riding a six-month rally that has propelled the blue-chip index to levels almost 50 per cent above its March low."

Posted by tpbeta @ 11:52 AM 26 Comments

South East predicted to lead house price recovery

FT: Focus: Residential Property - Ready to rekindle the affair?

The British have had a long-running love affair with property. Like many affairs, it has had its ups and downs, but the overall gains in residential property prices in real terms since the end of the second world war are hard to ignore. House prices cannot keep going up forever, of course. This fact seemed to be forgotten in the run-up to the latest slump. It was astounding to see so much investment into newly-launched property funds when it seemed clear that a major correction was due. The latest downturn in prices has been severe, having gone hand in hand with what has been the sharpest economic slump in the UK since records began. Confidence has been hit hard - but does that make it the ideal time to invest in one of the several residential property funds now coming to the market?

Posted by jack c @ 10:31 AM 9 Comments

Taxation policies

WSJ: UK Govt Cool On Extending Car Scrapping Incentives

Apparently so far the government has no inclination to extend the tax break for the UK car market. I think tax break is a better description than "car scrappage scheme" because the government subsidy was equivalent to VAT, so the scheme operated as a tax free period. This makes me wonder during recessions and consumer entrenchment, whether taxation levels designed to maximise revenue during more normal trading conditions, actually reduce revenue and economic activity during downswings as become -relatively- more oppressive. Which leads on to, given the government cannot reduce the real interest rate, are there any options left at all to encourage consumption and stem unemployment?

Posted by stillthinking @ 10:03 AM 2 Comments

Worrying Deluded Confidence

Telegraph: Now is best time to buy a home, say six in 10

More than half of the population think it is a good time to buy a property as the housing market continues to show signs of stabilising, research shows. Around 58pc of people think it is currently a good time to purchase a home, compared with only 19pc who think it is a bad time, according to the Building Societies Association.

Posted by fuzzy @ 09:58 AM 3 Comments

Friday, September 18, 2009

But i thought car sales were on the up!

Bbc wales: Further jobs fears at Bosch plant

Further job losses are feared at a Bosch car parts factory after figures showed sales fell 45% in the past year. The 900 workers at Miskin, Rhondda Cynon Taf, have been told redundancies are likely and closure has not been ruled out if demand continues to drop.

Posted by mark @ 06:39 PM 5 Comments

The can has just been kicked down the road

MoneyNews.COM: Whitney: Home Prices Could Drop 25 Percent

Video and summary - Bank analyst Meredith Whitney says home prices have another leg to drop, perhaps 25 percent. “Fourth quarter, then you see another leg down,” she told CNBC. "No bank underwrote a loan with 10 percent unemployment on the horizon," Whitney said. "I think there is no doubt that home prices will go down dramatically from here, it's just a question of when."

Posted by mountain goat @ 04:21 PM 24 Comments

Are we screwed?

YouTube: Gordon Brown - Elephant in the Room

With the debt out of control, jobless rocketing and our currency dying a slow painful death, is it now time to ask the all important question, are we screwed? Here, the British Prime Minister, an Economist and a Banker bear the full brunt of the Elephant in the Room during Question Time. Economic collapse can make your eyes water. All credit to the original You Tube poster for this fine work.

Posted by mrflibble @ 04:13 PM 8 Comments

Record breaker

Telegraph: Public sector borrowing highest on record

Unfortunately Roy Castle is in the same state as the UK economy. The government can only spend the "real" saving rate, i.e. their borrowing depends on blowing deferred consumption by panicked UK denizens and foolhardy foreigners. If the economy does pick up then consumption would of course need to be switched to those who deferred earlier. Will the confiscated consumption come from a) unemployed public sector workers b) anybody who works c) borrowers d) savers ?

Posted by stillthinking @ 04:12 PM 0 Comments

What can i say?

Las vegas sun: Las Vegas jobless rate soars to record 13.4 percent

Las Vegas jobless rate soars to record 13.4 percent

Posted by mark @ 03:31 PM 0 Comments

Gordon Brown's Greatest Achievement

Daily Telegraph: The Euro: Why Britain is still Better Off Out

When the historical dust clears, Gordon Brown may find that his greatest achievement was to keep Britain out of the euro and preserve the fire-fighting powers of the Bank of England - Ok so devaluing your currency isn't much to be proud of, but at least we can still elect the government that controls our currency, which is more than we could do if we'd joined the Euro.

Posted by need-a-crash @ 02:48 PM 3 Comments

Abbey Reports Increase in Savings

E1 News: UK Savers Put Away More Money

Abbey Savings, part of the Santander Group, has recently carried out a new research, the results of which revealed that an average British saver started to put away more money than earlier. Since the beginning of the year of 2009, this figure increased by 26%.

Posted by depositer00 @ 01:18 PM 0 Comments

It's the summer, stupid.

BBC News: Summer drop in mortgage lending

A 13% drop in mortgage lending from July, but it can all be explained by the usual 'summer drop'. It's also a 37% drop from last August. July was down 36% from the year before, so the summer must have been especially summery this year.

Posted by reader @ 11:46 AM 21 Comments

Start of the next leg down?

Citywire | Mrs Cohen?: Summertime plunge in mortgage lending

Mortgage lending fell by 13% in August, with ongoing funding constraints likely to prevent any pick-up in housing market activity, the Council of Mortgage Lenders reported today. Although the group attributed August’s fall to a seasonal decline in activity, it said that demand from consumers and a prudent approach to lending criteria would mean the market remains subdued.

Posted by lukeskywalker @ 11:31 AM 0 Comments

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water

Moneyweek: More trouble ahead for the US housing market

So how big is the next wave in the housing mortgage disaster? Currently, one out of eight mortgages is in foreclosure or paying late, and with unemployment averaging over 9% for 2009 and 2010 and peaking in 2011, it's likely one in five mortgages could ultimately default. Moreover, we have seen that less than 7% of those mortgages that are late will get cured and stay out of foreclosure. Over the last six months, notices of home foreclosures have been running about 350,000 a month, which is over four million a year. A lot of homes are headed to the auction block with their mortgages headed for the shredder.

Posted by rob @ 11:18 AM 0 Comments

"We need to invest in the economy"

SKY: Public Borrowing Soars To £16bn In August

The Government borrowed over £16bn in August alone, the highest ever figure for the month since records began.

Posted by alan @ 11:17 AM 2 Comments

Bankers hide their dirty underwear

FT: Watch Barclays in the cellar

A more thorough discussion of the Protium business from Gillian Tett.

Posted by letthemfall @ 11:00 AM 4 Comments

The flow of net lending to British firms fell in July by the biggest amount on record,

Yahoo: Record fall in lending to businesses in July

The flow of net lending to British firms fell in July by the biggest amount on record, the Bank of England said on Friday, in a further sign that more may need to be done to get credit flowing in the economy again.

Posted by mark @ 10:52 AM 1 Comments

Barclays' dodgy assets sale shows that banks are still in deep trouble

MoneyWeek: Barclays' dodgy assets sale shows that banks are still in deep trouble

Barclays has offloaded £7.5bn of 'toxic' assets by lending the buyer the money to pay for them. But when it comes down to it, the bill for the deal falls on the rest of us.

Posted by damien @ 09:56 AM 7 Comments

Is this just tory spin? Hopefully less property porn..

Yahoo: Tory party in vow to constrain BBC

The BBC will be forced to stick to "core broadcasting" if the Conservatives take government, the party's culture spokesman has said.

Posted by happy mondays @ 09:16 AM 6 Comments

Its that W Shaped Recovery Theme

This is London: Warning of new housing crash as prices 'soar too high'

Can't undestand what this article is saying, seems to be saying propety prices will crash because nobody will be buying or selling ! If anyone can enlighten me as to what the author is trying to say I would be most appreciative. I thought the theory was few sellers vs lots of cash rich buyers meant HPI? This article seems to be saying the opposite doesn't it? Or is it just an APPEAL to the Government to drop HIPS?

Posted by sybil13 @ 09:03 AM 5 Comments

Full-blown

Daily mail: Britain 'facing immediate risk of full-blown financial crisis'

Britain faces a 'clear and present danger' of a full-blown fiscal crisis, a City report warned yesterday. Analysts at investment bank Nomura cautioned that the public finances are 'plunging deeply into the red in a spectacular and frightening way', leaving the UK far more vulnerable than the United States.

Posted by mark @ 09:02 AM 4 Comments

A place in the sun

FT (via Yahoo): Britons face big losses on holiday homes

British owners of second homes overseas are facing ruinous losses on their investments after plunging price drops in foreign markets wiped as much as £24bn from the value of UK-owned homes abroad. Dubai and Bulgaria are the worst hit markets, with peak-to-trough price falls of 75pc on new-builds. The high levels of debt used to engineer transactions have ratcheted up the risk of financial problems. Foreign banks are seeking to chase their losses in the UK in the event of mortgage default. Since last Christmas, EU creditors can pursue a European order for payment which makes the process of debt recovery easier and cheaper. US banks will no longer lend to the British as so many have handed the keys back and done a runner. US banks now believe it is worth pursuing unpaid loans in the UK.

Posted by drewster @ 08:30 AM 0 Comments

Right on cue

The Telegraph: Gordon Brown to call for international agreement to cut public spending

Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister, will use next week’s G20 meeting in America to propose an international timetable for governments around the world to start cutting public spending together.

Posted by devo @ 06:38 AM 12 Comments

So long 'green shoots'; hello 'spending cuts.' The new buzz phrase.

The Herald: The money hole

With a £300m shortfall in budgets, Scottish public spending faces huge cuts, so how uncertain will the future be for nurses, teachers and policemen?

Posted by devo @ 12:23 AM 2 Comments

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Barclays' Protium Finance

The Telegraph: Flashman: "Barclays and Protium. They are separate companies."

“Ostensibly the deal could look like the accounting alchemy of the bad old days. But the assets are still on the balance sheet, and are still liable to Barclays – they’ve just freed up some cash for growth. It’s less sinister that it seems.” In a deal that initially caused alarm, Barclays announced it had sold the assets to Protium, which is registered in the Cayman Islands. It will be run by the same Barclays bankers who managed the assets prior to the deal.

Posted by devo @ 11:43 PM 14 Comments

The Fed backs away slowly...

San Francisco Chronicle: Money market guarantee program expiring

Just a little note about another Fed prop to the financial system that will be removed tomorrow. "The government's temporary guarantee program for money market funds is set to expire on Sept. 18...The program was put in place three days after the Reserve Primary Fund became the second money fund in history to break the buck, or fall below $1 per share. The day before, Lehman Bros. had filed for bankruptcy." and we all hid behind the sofa.

Posted by mountain goat @ 10:39 PM 0 Comments

Sign of things to come?

Yorkshire Post: Hundreds of jobs to go at council

HUNDREDS of workers employed by Kirklees Council are to lose their jobs.

Posted by mr g @ 10:05 PM 1 Comments

Typical capital apologist rubbishes arch bishop

Daily Telegraph: Archbishop of Canterbury's views on the City capitalism veer close to populist sloganeering

This article really got my goat, what a ludicrous apologist for kleptocratic capitalisms this Madsen Pirie is - but read the comments below. I am warmed by the comments on many telegraph articles showing up the what appalling excuse goes for journalism these days. well done to the moral wisdom of so many decent people.

Posted by the number cruncher @ 09:34 PM 7 Comments

The tortoise and the hare

FT: Asia banks for a world turned upside down

Unadventurous, leaden-footed - too slow to climb aboard the ship of fools - Asian banks, boringly recycling deposits into corporate loans, have strengthened after their speed-fuelled western counterparts stumbled and fell. The former are strong in market cap and deposits, less so in (highly leveraged) assets. The head of Hong Kong's monetary authority said "The financial system does not and should not have a life of its own" and argued that banks' primary purpose was to support the economy, not to create jobs for bankers or headaches for regulators. The Chinese apparently decided a long time ago that derivatives were like morrors reflecting other mirrors, giving an unwanted view of infinity.

Posted by icarus @ 07:53 PM 3 Comments

One for the techies

FDRalloveragain: Behold, Cashzilla!

US dollar strength has been growing into a juggernaut for more than a year, doubling in asset buying power in no time, after steadily falling since 1913. US Dollars are so strong now, it actually takes more than a year for the government to create a single penny (2 Year T-Bill yield is 1%).

Posted by devo @ 07:20 PM 0 Comments

But with what money?

Telegraph: Now is best time to buy a home, say six in 10

Around 58pc of people think it is currently a good time to purchase a home, compared with only 19pc who think it is a bad time, according to the Building Societies Association. Consumers now expect house prices to rise by an average of 1.6pc during the coming 12 months, with 61pc of people expecting a price rise and only 15pc anticipating a further fall, down from 27pc who expected the correction to continue in June. A lack of job security continues to be the biggest factor stopping people from buying a house at 58pc, followed by raising a big enough deposit at 52pc, while 39pc of people are worried about being able to afford their monthly mortgage repayments.

Posted by drewster @ 06:56 PM 24 Comments

Council planners recommend that affordable homes be made non-affordable!

Warrington Guardian - This is Cheshire: Restrictions to be removed?

Council approved scheme to make 1 bedroom affordable flats non-affordable? Is this sort of planning wheeze a new trend by unscrupulous developers and are there more examples to be found elsewhere in the UK?

Posted by enuii @ 06:24 PM 1 Comments

Are bankers friendless and unemotional?

Telegraph: Counting money 'makes people feel better about themselves'

"Just handling and thinking about money can actually lessen pain and even ease the social stigma of having no friends, researchers believe. The psychological benefits [of handling money] increase feelings of internal strength, fearlessness and confidence. ... These findings have great importance for a social system such as ours that is characterised by wide disparities in financial wellbeing."

Posted by drewster @ 04:59 PM 3 Comments

How to make a depression

The Market Oracle: Quantitative Easing Fuelled Stock Market Recovery

The consumer is maxed out, private sector activity is in the tank, and government stimulus is the only thing keeping the economy off the meat-wagon. Bernanke might not admit it, but the economy is sinking into post-bubble malaise.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 04:56 PM 1 Comments

Annual Growth of Property Asking Prices Registered in UK

E1 News: UK House Prices Show Annual Growth of 6.61%

Reuters recently reported that according to the House Prices and Affordability Index, compiled by one of the British property web-sites, UK house prices have shown the first positive annual growth in 2009 as currently average house prices of British properties are £512 higher than in the year of 2008.

Posted by hj_1212 @ 04:32 PM 0 Comments

Interest free stamp duty loan - What's the Catch?

Guardian.co.uk: James Caan launches stamp duty loans scheme

Dragons' Den star James Caan offers interest-free loans of up to £50,000 to cover stamp duty and solicitor's fees. The loans can be taken out over a two- to three-year period and will need to be paid back in monthly instalments over this time. For example, on a £5,000 loan over a three-year repayment period the interest-free monthly repayments would be £138.89 a month. What I would like to know: 1) Is there an arrangement fee. 2) How much is the arrangement fee. 3) What is the catch? As the old saying goes - if something seems too good to be true, it usually is!

Posted by ra02127a @ 03:02 PM 0 Comments

Vote of confidence

Telegraph: Brixton to launch its own currency

Brixton has launched a new currency. So G.K.Chesterton was right all along. Anyway apparently the good people of Brixton seem to think that they will do better with their own currency rather than one universally accepted all over the UK. Probably they are right (except not in this case).

Posted by stillthinking @ 02:44 PM 4 Comments

A bit of fun to round off the day, wonder if bankers hire these?

Las vegas sun: Vegas hotel suites take luxury to a new level

At $40,000 a night, the Hugh Hefner Sky Villa is one of the priciest in Vegas. watch the video for the barbie suite..lol

Posted by mark @ 02:23 PM 0 Comments

Euro the tallest midget for now

Bloomberg: Pound to Drop to Euro Parity, Dollar to Reach 85 Yen, BNP Says

I post this not because I agree but more because it explains what the "big boys" appear to be thinking on currencies, and partly explains the dollars recent fall. BNP thinks GBP will fall again as it becomes a "funding currency" similar concept to "carry trade" as far as I can tell.

Posted by mountain goat @ 11:36 AM 23 Comments

Another way of keeping prices artificially high

Thisismoney.co.uk: Fixed mortgage rates could fall soon

The cost of fixed rate mortgages could drop in the coming months due to the Bank of England's plans to pay banks less for their deposits. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, said yesterday he is considering lowering the interest rate he pays to High Street banks on their deposits, a move aimed at encouraging banks to lend rather than hoard cash.

Posted by hotffot @ 10:33 AM 5 Comments

Speculation for now - Will this mean better deals for homeowners?

Mail: Brown faces humiliation as EU is poised to force break up of Lloyds Halifax superbank

Gordon Brown faces the possible humiliation of seeing the EU dismantle the giant Lloyds Banking Group he helped construct with a £17billion bailout. Brussels regulators are expected to force the 'Bank of Britain' to dispose of a number of businesses to limit its power in the retail banking market. Lloyds may even have to relinquish its 1,000-branch Halifax network? Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1213923/Brown-faces-humiliation-EU-poised-force-break-Lloyds-Halifax-superbank.html#ixzz0RM2HThTK

Posted by alan @ 10:28 AM 2 Comments

Investec says BDEV is only worth 93p

Guardian: Investec says Barratt could be "irreparably damaged"

More negative news for Barratt Developments, with analysts at Investec saying this morning the housebuilder could be "irreparably damaged" by over-extending at the height of the bubble, even with a mooted £500m cash call.

Posted by modemfish @ 10:16 AM 3 Comments

More like a fall to me..

BBC News: No change in August retail sales

Retail sales had been expected to rise by 0.1% in August, but in fact were unchanged from July. No big deal? - but hang on, they've revised down the July figure from 0.4% to 0.2%. Honest correction? - or a great way to conceal a fall?

Posted by uncle tom @ 09:57 AM 5 Comments

Fewer UK Borrowers face Property Repossession

E1 News: BSA and FSA Report a Decrease in Mortgage Arrears

According to the information revealed by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) and the Building Societies Association (BSA), the number of UK residents who have taken out a residential mortgage and fell into arrears has been steadily decreasing as only 3% of borrowers now face property repossession.

Posted by uch1405 @ 08:35 AM 0 Comments

They must need the money

NSANDI: Historic Interest Rates

Apologies if this has been covered before. Anyone else notice that some National Savings rates (e.g. Direct ISA) have almost doubled since their low point. The Government must have decided they still need to compete with the banks rather than have everyone withdraw their funds (which I had been considering). I don't think there will be many 0.5% mortgages around when you can get 2.5% on Savings from a Government backed organisation.

Posted by tenyearstogetmymoneyback @ 08:17 AM 7 Comments

"smoke and mirrors" trickery

Borsaitaliana: Barclays Sells $12.3 Billion Credit Assets To New Fund

Barclays PLC Wednesday sought to cut its exposure to volatile credit markets by selling $12.3 billion in risky assets to a new fund managed by two former Barclays executives. The sale means Barclays will no longer have to record market moves in the value of a portfolio of securities backed by U.S. subprime mortgages and other poorly performing loans that already wiped more than a billion pounds off its profits in 2008. But it won't free up any capital because Barclays is extending the new owner, Protium Finance LP, a $12.6 billion loan to finance the sale, and will keep the securities on its balance sheet for regulatory purposes.

Posted by devo @ 06:38 AM 29 Comments

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Dog wags the tail

Reuters: US Rep Frank bars Goldman Sachs lobbyist-aide

Finance, insurance and real estate firms spend more money lobbying officials in Washington than any other sector of the U.S. economy, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a non-partisan campaign finance and lobbying watchdog group. Within that sector, Goldman is a powerhouse.

Posted by devo @ 11:42 PM 0 Comments

Lots of Big Numbers for a small country equals less money for mortgage payments!

Times: Treasury leak reveals jaw-dropping forecasts on cost of recession

Worst thing is that these figures are already probably out of date!

Posted by enuii @ 11:23 PM 4 Comments

Where did all the money go?

Vanity Fair: Good Billions After Bad

"As the Bush administration waned, the Treasury shoveled more than a quarter of a trillion dollars in tarp funds into the financial system—without restrictions, accountability, or even common sense."

Posted by becky @ 10:55 PM 2 Comments

Fred Harrison - my Hero

Renegade Economist: The Human Right - film special

Fred does it again with this brilliant film on why Land Value tax is the only fair way tax and the way to reduce house prices and keep them sensible forever. You tell em Fred!

Posted by the number cruncher @ 10:35 PM 11 Comments

How the mighty fall

Birmingham Post: Birmingham city centre apartment prices slump, but the market will recover eventually

The young professionals in newly-built Birmingham city centre apartments might be alarmed, to discover they paid over the odds to live in properties written off by a Conservative councillor as the “slums of tomorrow”. Compact is the way the estate agents might describe it; or, not enough room to swing a cat, in more common parlance. This was all very well when property prices were rising and the city’s young accountants, lawyers and bankers were literally falling over themselves to get a slice of the action and probably didn’t much mind what they bought because they assumed property prices would go on rising. It has been revealed by the cabinet member for housing, that even the city council has turned down offers to buy these properties for homeless people.

Posted by mytimeisnigh @ 10:07 PM 3 Comments

Whats real and what isn't

Cnn: BofA board members subpoenaed

Cuomo's probe has so far revealed that Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke allegedly asked former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to threaten Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) CEO Ken Lewis with a change in management should Bank of America pull out of its deal to buy Merrill. BofA agreed to buy Merrill Lynch a year ago, just hours before Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. The Charlotte, N.C.-based bank, which received $25 billion in bailout funds last fall, wound up needing another $20 billion in government aid to help it complete the Merrill deal.

Posted by mark @ 09:28 PM 0 Comments

Please sir can i have some more???????

BBC: Carmakers urge scrappage renewal

******** It is now clear the only growth we have is from government stimulus ******** He said that carmakers in Europe could lose sales of 13 to 14.5 million units without the scrappage.

Posted by mark @ 05:55 PM 10 Comments

Times round up of the latest house price stats

Times: Ten reasons for ignore house price statistics

Times Smart Money by James Charles - does the daily drip drip of property indices give us a true insight into the UK housing market? Click below to read the ten reasons why you should ignore house prices statistics. The Summary is - "Economists and property experts expect house prices to fall by another 8 or 9 per cent this winter and into 2010"

Posted by jack c @ 05:36 PM 3 Comments

The $12.1 trillion debt ceiling is fast approaching over the limit status

Cnn: U.S. about to hit debt ceiling - again

Congress has raised the debt ceiling four times in the past two years and will probably have to do it again in the next month. With the government borrowing record amounts of money, the nation's current debt ceiling of $12.1 trillion will be pierced soon.

Posted by mark @ 05:33 PM 0 Comments

Dapper Dresser's Words of Wisdom

Bbc r4: Bye bye buy to let

Couple put 700 properties up for sale Fergus Wilson and his partner Judith were once the golden couple of the property boom. After resigning as teachers from schools in Kent they went on to build up a buy to let property empire which, at its peak it included over 900 properties with an estimated value of £250m. But they now have decided to sell up. If above link doesn't work - click on this and go to 37 mins in

Posted by mken @ 04:43 PM 8 Comments

No Cuts Tuc

Telegraph: Unemployment-crisis-creates-divide-between-private-and-public-sector

Well over a quarter of a million public sector jobs have been created in the last year, despite unemployment rising to its highest level in 15 years, official figures have disclosed. I smell trouble ahead.

Posted by bluebeach @ 03:35 PM 0 Comments

The Shock Doctrine

Counterpunch: Lehman died so TARP and AIG might live

Naomi Klein's book with that title (mine) argues that those in power make big changes in their own interests when some major event (usually contrived) causes panic and the mark is thereby softened up for the ensuing sting. According to this article the collapse of Lehman a year ago was a contrived event which panicked Congress enough to make it loosen the purse strings and shower largesse on Bernanke's and Paulson's banking mates.

Posted by icarus @ 01:56 PM 20 Comments

See if anything sounds familiar

Huppi: TIMELINES OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION

This page features two timelines: the first for general events of the Roaring 20s and the Great Depression, the second for leading economic indicators. The importance of these timelines cannot be emphasized enough. Seeing the order in which events actually occurred dispels many myths about the Great Depression. One of the greatest of these myths is that government intervention was responsible for its onset. Truly massive intervention began only under the presidency of Franklin Roosevelt in 1933, who was sworn in after the worst had already hit. Although his New Deal did not cure it, all the leading economic indicators improved on his watch.

Posted by mark @ 11:43 AM 2 Comments

'interesting news articles from america 1930'

Wealthdaily: News articles from america 1930

This was of course just before the dow plunged a further 85% and it shows just how things never change blue skys nothing but blue skys

Posted by taffee @ 11:14 AM 1 Comments

Interest payments

Telegraph: Gordon Brown 'misled Commons' over spending cuts, says George Osborne

Leaked treasury documents show expected cuts of 9.3%, but more to the point is estimates of debt servicing costs by 2013/2014 will be 63 billion. For 30 million workers that is 2 grand each on interest payments from an average UK salary of 29/30K a year. GB has certainly sailed close to the wind. People will also have to cover their own debt servicing costs against privately held debt. You can't help but wonder if this isn't a debt death spiral already.

Posted by stillthinking @ 11:09 AM 25 Comments

But in the Telegraph it's the highest since 1995

Telegraph: UK unemployment jumps to highest since 1995 as recession pain bites

Who is correct? The BBC or the Telegraph? Are you struiggling to pay your licence fee to finanace government propaganda?

Posted by sovietuk @ 10:36 AM 1 Comments

Increases in Mortgage Rates Accepted by CML

E1 News: CML Defends a Hike in UK Mortgage Cost

Despite the fact that the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England kept the base rate at the level of 0.5% last week, 2 major UK lenders – Royal Bank of Scotland and Nationwide – increased their interest rates on mortgage deals.

Posted by hj_1212 @ 10:11 AM 1 Comments

Jobless rate latest

BBC: UK unemployment climbs to 2.47m

The number of people out of work in the UK has risen again, the latest official figures show. The jobless rate increased by 210,000 to 2.47 million in the three months to July, according to the Office for National Statistics. Claims for unemployment benefit in August grew by 24,400 from July to 1.61m, the highest since May 1997. There have been signs the UK economy is beginning to pick up, but jobless data tends to lag behind other measures.

Posted by jack c @ 09:38 AM 11 Comments

No mortgage rates aren't going down but prices are

Moneyhospital: Are mortgage rates going down yet?

Another article confirming that the current blip isn't sustainable just thought I would post it because I LOVE their comments on the new HSBC 1.99% rate. "The 1.99% interest rate is for headlines and the Virgin Mary"

Posted by sybil13 @ 09:18 AM 0 Comments

Archbishop: 1 Paxman: 0

BBC News: Archbishop condemns bank excesses

I don't normally pay much attention to bleating bishops, but Dr Williams performance on Newsnight last night was a delight. Paxo started talking down to him, but the Archbish' very elegantly turned the conversation, leaving Paxo looking a prat..

Posted by uncle tom @ 09:11 AM 10 Comments

Can house prices keep holding up ?

Money week: A double-dip recession is coming: here are three reasons why By MoneyWeek Editor John Stepek Sep 15, 2009

The papers are still full of the anniversary of the Lehman Brothers collapse. Pundits are cogitating, mulling over, and pronouncing their views on the crisis and what should happen next.

Posted by happy mondays @ 08:33 AM 8 Comments

Get the scroungers out working

Yahoo: Tories in rethink on benefit system

Families earning more than £30,000 would have their entitlement to benefits cut under far-reaching reforms to the welfare system being proposed by former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith's think-tank. The Dynamic Benefits report recommends increasing support for working couples and measures to remove financial barriers to finding a job.The report concludes that under the present system some claimants are worse off if they take a job paying up to £15,000 a year as they face the loss of benefits. The recommendations hold to the simple principle that work is the sustainable route out of poverty.

Posted by mytimeisnigh @ 08:28 AM 4 Comments

Pointers are that the market will go DOWN DOWN DOWN

Times Online: Property prices are rising but I’m happy to rent for now

Nothing new, we keep reading it, the current blip is not sustainable driven by the cash rich, but I was surprised to read her loan to income ratios. " The average house price, according to our figures at Savills, is at present 6.4 times the average household income, down from 8.1 at the market peak in 2007 and compared with an average of 5.0 over the past 39 years (these figures vary widely depending on whose statistics you use.) This has led some analysts to say that property values have to continue falling by another 20-30 per cent to reach a proper level." Currently 6.4 (!!) at peak 8.1 yet still she has property 20 - 30% overvalued, so what if she had ratios back to what is truly the historic norm of 3.5, how overvalued is property then?

Posted by sybil13 @ 08:14 AM 4 Comments

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Mervyn King V Burger King (hopefully)

Der Spiegal: Laid-Off German Banker Opens Fast Food Joint

Possibilities there, methinks - Adam Applegarth opens up a chain of sarnie bars (SubprimeWay) The badger and Freddy Goodwin have been spotted taking lessons on how to fry mars bars, apparently......

Posted by braindeed @ 09:43 PM 3 Comments

Better late than never, I suppose

SKY: PM Admits Labour Will Make Spending Cuts

Gordon Brown has admitted for the first time that if Labour wins the next election, it will have to make "cuts" to public spending. The site has Gordo ranting on about the Tories being the party of cuts, 3 months ago - he was going to spend his way out, remember?

Posted by alan @ 09:41 PM 5 Comments

Lower rates and depreciating value of cash leads to............

FT: Data add to evidence of stabilising house prices

House price rises reported across the board.

Posted by yodiggity @ 04:29 PM 1 Comments

Keepin' the bubble inflated ... but for how long?

Metro: Repossessions fall 9% this quarter

"A total of 13,610 properties were repossessed during the three months to the end of June, nearly 1,300 fewer than during the previous quarter but still 23% higher than for the same period of 2008, according to the Financial Services Authority. The FSA said the fall in repossessions was likely to be due to the introduction of the pre-action protocol in November last year, under which courts can only grant a repossession order if all other measures to keep someone in their home have failed. The Government has also launched a raft of initiatives to help people who are struggling with their mortgage, while lenders are showing greater forbearance and low interest rates are helping to keep repayments more affordable."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 03:45 PM 19 Comments

Some nasty news starting to appear...

Yahoo: Deeper loses seen for airlines in 2009

The revised forecast is $2 billion worse than the previous projection for losses of $9 billion due to rising fuel prices and weak yields, the association said in a statement

Posted by mark @ 03:31 PM 2 Comments

More tax payers money...where will it stop?

Yahoo: EU backs 60 million pounds in aid for GKN

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Commission approved on Tuesday 60 million pounds in British state aid for engineering group GKN.

Posted by mark @ 02:30 PM 1 Comments

Good use of our money

Northampton Chronicle and Echo: Bail-out bank will put £9m into Park

"A BANK which received a multi-billion-pound bail-out from taxpayers at the height of the economic collapse is now part of a deal which will see millions invested in a Northamptonshire housing estate." "The cash will go towards providing facilities such as indoor and outdoor sports areas, community buildings and public art alongside a major new housing and office development." At least they're not wasting it !!!

Posted by thecountofnowhere @ 12:46 PM 0 Comments

Looks like Mystic Merv has got ahead of himself ....

Press Association: Tories may cut defence spending (and a whole lot more by the sounds of it)

'Major defence projects may not be safe from public spending cuts if the Tories win the next general election, shadow chancellor George Osborne has hinted'. Defence cuts are only the start of it, it seems. The engineered pre-election mini-boom simply can't last much longer: how long before the Wily E Coyote moment arrives and the sheeple realise they have run off a cliff into thin air with nothing to hold them up ... DON'T LOOK DOWN !!!

Posted by montesquieu @ 12:39 PM 1 Comments

Something for slumdogestateagent

Nytimes: Japan Airlines to Cut Routes and 6,800 Jobs

TOKYO — Japan Airlines is prepared to undergo its largest-ever downsizing, cutting thousands of jobs and many of its routes, the struggling company’s chief executive said Tuesday.

Posted by mark @ 12:39 PM 2 Comments

Markets Reaction to Possible Interest Rate Changes on Reserves

Reuters: Sterling hits 4-month low vs euro on King comment

Sterling fell broadly on Tuesday, hitting a four-month low versus the euro after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said he was considering cutting the rate paid on reserves which UK banks park at the central bank.

Posted by sybil13 @ 12:36 PM 2 Comments

The Governors latest thoughts.....

BBC: UK economic growth 'has resumed'

There are signs that the UK economy is growing again, the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, has said. But he added that the "strength and sustainability" of the recovery are still "highly uncertain", in comments made to the Treasury Select Committee. Mr King said the state of the banking system, levels of debt, and the global economy were all drags on growth. He was speaking after figures showed a key measure of inflation has fallen to its lowest level since February 2005.

Posted by jack c @ 12:24 PM 17 Comments

Inflation firmer

Ftalphaville: Inflation gestation

Inflation is firmer than thought. The BoE relies heavily on the output gap as a determinant of inflation, in that the lost capacity acts as a productivity buffer in the face of demand. I have my doubts about this methodology. Sure for a large company cutting capacity perhaps they can bring that capacity back online. But there are many SMEs in the UK, a number of which have closed. Although an SME can close overnight, to start over to build even a 20+ worker company can take many many years i.e. they are not part of an output gap they are -lost- capacity. Quite aside from sounding suspiciously like unemployment being used as an inflationary control measure. Unless they dovetail with public sector cuts, in which case I am all for it.

Posted by stillthinking @ 12:23 PM 1 Comments

Them's big scary numbers!

Daily Telegraph: UK lenders face £130bn more losses from financial crisis

"Moody's, which last week reconfirmed the UK's AAA credit rating, expects losses at banks and building societies to reach £240bn. Lenders have taken £110bn of losses so far and face another £130bn over the next few years. The agency explained that it "expects the sustained weakness of the UK macroeconomic environment to feed through into higher loan arrears with ensuing pressure on profitability and capital". Moody's report came as research from FTI Consulting found that a majority of leading global fund managers do not believe the financial crisis is over. Of 153 fund managers interviewed in 15 countries with €2.8 trillion (£2.5 trillion) of funds under management, 64pc said there was worse to come for the banks."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 11:50 AM 7 Comments

I also hear Vauxhalls in Ellesmere Port are axing 800

Yahoo: Defence Cuts: BAE Systems 'Axes 1,100 Jobs'

Defence giant BAE Systems is to axe 1,100 jobs and close a site at Woodford in Cheshire

Posted by mark @ 10:44 AM 32 Comments

Really! A snowman would be able to predict this

Yahoo: CPI slows less than expected in August

"Inflationary pressures might be a little bit closer to the surface than we thought."

Posted by mark @ 10:27 AM 2 Comments

House prices fell in July

Yahoo: House prices fell in July

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices in July were 8.3 percent lower than in the same month a year ago, figures issued by the Department of Communities showed on Tuesday. Prices were 1.4 percent higher than in the previous month, the data showed. The adjusted average house price was 196,338 pounds in July 2009.

Posted by mark @ 10:25 AM 8 Comments

CPI down, RPI up.

BBC News: UK inflation rate falls to 1.6%

A key measure of inflation has fallen to its lowest level since February 2005, official statistics show. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) dropped to an annual rate of 1.6% in August from 1.8% in July. But the Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation measure, which includes mortgage interest payments and housing costs, rose, to -1.3% from -1.4%.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 10:24 AM 0 Comments

“There’s no recovery from the crisis”

Russia Today: “There’s no recovery from the crisis”

On the anniversary of the financial meltdown, RT spoke to Gerald Celente, the founder of economic forecasters the Trends Research Institute, who predicted the crisis in early 2008.

Posted by iron monkey @ 09:41 AM 1 Comments

UK House Prices Continue to Increase - RICS

E1 News: RICS and NAEA Report Increases in House Prices and Sales

Survey performed by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) found out that the number of its surveyors reporting increases in house prices in the 3 months prior to September exceeded the number of those reporting falls in house prices for the 1st time in the past 2 years.

Posted by jess56 @ 08:26 AM 0 Comments

Prices rise in RICS' survey

BBC: More surveyors report price rises

"More surveyors said UK house prices were rising in the three months to September than those reporting falling property values.The proportion turned positive for the first time for two years, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' (Rics) survey found. The change was driven primarily by price rises in London and the South East of England."

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 07:58 AM 29 Comments

Print money and buy back debt or let interest rates rise?

Telegraph: US credit shrinks at Great Depression rate prompting fears of double-dip recession

Sure AEP is an ueber bear - but I'm with him: You have to wonder what happens next given shrinking money supply. There has to be a point that printing money will cease and interest rates move up. Most likely when countries holding dollar reserves call time.

Posted by growler @ 07:14 AM 6 Comments

Monday, September 14, 2009

The “most ambitious overhaul of the financial system since the Great Depression”

The Telegraph: Barack Obama unveils biggest regulatory overhaul 'since the Depression'

The US President, urging Wall Street not to forget the lessons of the financial crisis which heightened as a result of Lehman’s collapse , said that bank’s “cannot resume taking risks without regard for consequences” warning that they should not “expect that next time, American taxpayers will be there to break their fall.” President Obama went on to warn that as the financial system begins to recover from the horror of the last 12 months, “normalcy cannot lead to complacency” warning that there are some in the financial industry who are “misreading the moment.”

Posted by devo @ 10:35 PM 0 Comments

Vote NIMBY, go NIMBY

FT: Housebuilders warn of ‘hiatus’ from Tory plan

"Caroline Spelman, shadow communities secretary, has written to councils warning them not to make decisions on controversial planning issues until after the general election. She promised them they would be able to “put the brakes” on any elements of regional spatial strategies that they found “undesirable”. Ms Spelman also told local authorities that a Tory government would not pay “a penny of compensation” to speculative developers that saw their plans fall by the wayside.... Bob Neill, shadow local government minister, said there was evidence the government was pressing councils to sign up to “unsustainable housing targets” and removing green belt land."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 08:47 PM 20 Comments

Lower house prices have not meant improved affordability

Knight Frank: Affordable Housing Review 2009

90% of UK households are potentially eligible to access state aid to cover their housing costs. In the UK, £60,000 of household income is now the accepted limit for eligibility for access to most shared ownership schemes. Lower property prices have not meant improved affordability. Despite house prices falling by 15% or 20% on average, the proportion of a buyer’s income required to secure a mortgage, has only come down 1% - 24% of a buyer’s income was required to secure a mortgage at the peak in 2007 and now it has only come down to 23% by mid 2009, despite the fact they need to secure larger deposits than in the past.

Posted by wanderinman @ 08:15 PM 4 Comments

Landlords dealt a blow which could make it harder to remortgage

Telegraph: Buy-to-let investors face £3m credit limit at Lloyds Banking Group

Lloyds Banking Group, which accounts for half of all new buy-to-let lending, said landlords would be restricted to a maximum of nine mortgages with a total value of up to £3m across all of its brands.

Posted by wanderinman @ 07:26 PM 3 Comments

IMF wants 20% cut in govenment workers

BBC News: Serbia 'cuts jobs for IMF loan'

We're well and truly screwed if we need IMF help if Serbia is anything to go buy! They're 'only' running a deficit of 4.5%, yet the IMF are demanding they cut a fifth of the public sector workforce. What would the IMF demand if we wanted/needed a handout?

Posted by pauly_boy @ 06:11 PM 7 Comments

The follow up to Real Estate Downfall

Citywire: Video: Hitler misses the stock market rally

watch this superbly-executed example in which the Führer discovers he sold out of the market at the bottom

Posted by jack c @ 06:09 PM 5 Comments

Globalisation Yesterday Trade War Today

Associated Press: China files WTO complaint on US tire tariffs

Beijing filed a World Trade Organization complaint Monday over new U.S. tariffs on Chinese tires, stepping up pressure on Washington in the latest in a series of trade disputes.

Posted by mountain goat @ 05:52 PM 0 Comments

Time to take profits?

FT: Long view: market bubble?

Stocks have seen gains of 50% over the last 6 months raising questions whether they could be sustained or represented a self-fullfilling bubble as many jumped on board, partially driven by hopeless returns in many other sectors. Are we due a correction or is the current valuation of the FTSE for instance about right?

Posted by denzil @ 05:23 PM 0 Comments

This won't show up in the official statisics

Thisismoney: Auction 'dip suggests house price falls'

First saw this in the Western Daily Press Business page. Apparently there is now a 30% difference between prices at auction and "open market value" whatever that is. It all goes to prove a house is only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it.

Posted by tenyearstogetmymoneyback @ 05:03 PM 6 Comments

2011 again!!!

Cnn: Eli Lilly to cut 5,500 jobs

Eli Lilly and Co. will cut 5,500 jobs as part of a restructuring plan to save $1 billion, the drugmaker said Monday. The job cuts will be complete by 2011, according to a press release. Eli Lilly (LLY, Fortune 500), based in Indianapolis, currently employs 40,500 people.

Posted by mark @ 04:27 PM 0 Comments

Daily Mail mentions the Baltic Dry

Dail Mail: The Ghost Fleet Recession

Some good pics too. The thing that haunts me most about all of this is actually Bernankes promise to Milton Friedman at MF's 90th that he would never allow another Great Depression to happen.

Posted by bellwether @ 03:36 PM 6 Comments

Patrick Collinson on why houses are dearer than ever

The Guardian: The real price of a mortgage: 6.49%

Forget interest rates at 0.5%. First time buyers are paying the highest rates in years - which is why talk of a housing market recovery is bunk.

Posted by deleriad @ 03:36 PM 0 Comments

Mr Stiglitz speaks.

Telegraph: Lehman collapse: 12 months on and the financial system isn't fixed, warns Stiglitz

Governments have failed to rein in the size of banks sufficiently 12 months after the collpase of Lehman Brothers triggered a meltdown, Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz has warned.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 02:45 PM 0 Comments

China to blow open COMEX and send gold/silver to the moon

Market Oracle: Derivatives Collapse and the New China Gold and Silver Markets

The Chinese government is currently encouraging it's citizens to buy gold and silver. As a consequence China is considering walking away from responsibility on certain OTC derivative contracts held by foreign banks as counterparties.These unlisted OTC derivative contracts include massive short positions in both gold and silver, but especially in silver, and are used to back the listed COMEX short positions of the large commercials in both gold and silver. Sticking with these contracts could force the gold/silver price down. If the price of gold/silver were to fall it would be suicidal for the Chinese government, following their advice to their own citizens to invest in gold/silver, as revolution could follow on the back of financial losses. Boom goes COMEX then, and gold to the moon!

Posted by general congreve @ 12:35 PM 8 Comments

Union Boss: Economy Has Fallen Off Cliff

Yahoo: Union Boss: Economy Has Fallen Off Cliff

The UK's economy has "fallen off a cliff" and will only start recovering when decent jobs are created, a union leader has said

Posted by mark @ 12:24 PM 5 Comments

America still collapsing, will it cross the Atlantic?

Euronews: Us foreclosures still near record level

The number of people having to give up their homes in the US because they could not pay their mortgage fell slightly in August, but remained near record levels.

Posted by happy mondays @ 12:02 PM 0 Comments

Mortgage Lending increases significantly

Telegraph: Mortgage Lending increases significantly

Mortgage lending has improved further, rising 19 per cent higher during July than in the same month of last year, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

Posted by kp @ 11:23 AM 6 Comments

Oh how the bubble is swelling!

The Telegraph: Gold investors warned to liquidate after 'buying frenzy'

"London's leading gold forecaster has advised clients to liquidate holdings of gold and silver until the latest speculative fever abates, warning that futures contracts on New York's Comex exchange are flashing warning signals." - As the recovery from recession gathers pace I suspect that the value of gold could drop by 25% and possibly more withing 18 months.

Posted by shining wit @ 11:16 AM 17 Comments

The tax that bare not speak its name

New Scientist: Better world: Tax carbon and give the money to the people

This is a interesting article - strange that we never see this in the main stream press, but in a science journal. Taxing assets in this way has many benefits to the economy and would stimulate the real economy. What the article fails to say is the real reason we will never see a carbon tax as well as a land value tax is because powerful vested interested holds this wealth for their monopolistic advantage and do not want governments using it for building schools or hospitals or for sociable good.

Posted by the number cruncher @ 10:13 AM 9 Comments

BBC report on Item Club forecast

BBC Business: 'False dawn' in UK housing market

An economics forecasting group has said that the recent rise in UK house prices is a "false dawn". The Ernst & Young Item Club also says that property values will not return to their 2007 peak for at least another five years. It says "a small number of cash-rich buyers have supported prices".

Posted by jack c @ 09:15 AM 20 Comments

Property Prices Not Sustainable

This Is Money: House prices 'will fall again next year'

Propety prices not sustainable, it just amazes me that we need experts to tell us the obvious but PLEASE GOD let us have a lot more articles that point to HOUSE PRICE FALLS rather than this pointless ramping of a market that HAS to fall in order to be sustainable. Currently we are hearing that PRICES ARE RISING on the basis of a few cash rich buyers whilst the majority of sellers cannot sell because the majority of buyers cannot afford to buy or cannot get a lender to lend more than 25% from peak leaving agents selling 1 property a month . What we currently have is not a "recovery" but a hopeless case of denial that I for one cannot wait to be over.....

Posted by sybil13 @ 08:53 AM 24 Comments

''They think it's all over.......''

Mail: Housing revival is simply a 'false dawn' with prices set to fall again

''House prices will fall early next year and are unlikely to climb back to their 2007 peak for another five years, it is claimed today. Recent evidence of house price rises are no more than a 'false dawn', according to a leading group of economists. Property prices have already fallen by about 20 per cent compared with the peak in the summer of two years ago and many other economists have said they believe the bust is now over.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:52 AM 2 Comments

Common sense from the ITEM Club

Telegraph: House price rise is 'false dawn' warn economists

"The reason behind the double dip, according to ITEM, is that a shortage of homes for sale has driven prices up and that once those buyers with access to big deposits dry up, there will be nothing left to support growth. “A small number of cash-rich buyers have supported prices, but the supply of these funds is limited, which means prices are likely to dip again in the first half of next year,” said Hetal Mehta, advisor to ITEM. "

Posted by voiceofreason @ 08:42 AM 1 Comments

Item Club forecast in Graphics

Times: Graphic: a false dawn

I'm sure someone will get sacked for actually putting this on the ramping Times website, it's bear food! It's basically what the Item Club said in the form of a picture

Posted by pauly_boy @ 08:24 AM 0 Comments

Ernst & Young Does Not Believe in Fast Property Sector Recovery

E1 News: Ernst & Young Says UK Property Sector Will Decline Further

The latest report published by the Ernst & Young Item Club – the company’s forecast group – on Monday, September 14th, suggests that company’s experts are not positive about the future of the UK property market.

Posted by anna smith @ 08:08 AM 0 Comments

God Bless America!

The Times: We have averted second Depression, Obama claims

President Obama will declare today that his economic policies have saved America from a second Great Depression, but a tumultuous 48 hours of protests over his massive spending plans could drown out his reassurance. Mr Obama is due to speak on Wall Street a year after Lehman Brothers collapsed, unleashing a global financial meltdown and the worst economic crisis since the Depression.

Posted by devo @ 06:29 AM 2 Comments

Sunday, September 13, 2009

'Gloomy news'

Times: House prices ‘will take five years to return to peak’

House prices will not return to the peak reached in autumn 2007 for at least another five years, according to Ernst & Young’s Item Club. The influential group’s gloomy forecast contradicts the increasingly optimistic outlook of the Government and some commentators that the British economy has begun a sustained recovery.

Posted by little professor @ 11:33 PM 8 Comments

"It is not a liquidity crisis. It is a bankruptcy crisis."

Telegraph: Lehman is a footnote in the great East-West globalisation crisis

Lehman no more caused the economic convulsions of the last year than the assassination of an Austrian prince caused the First World War. There was the little matter of a rising Germany then, and a rising China now. Both scrambled the international system, albeit in different ways. ... The housing crash has tipped 15m US home owners into negative equity. A third of sub-prime mortgages are in default. Some 7.8pc of all loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration are in foreclosure or 90 days in arrears. ... It is not a liquidity crisis. It is a bankruptcy crisis. ... There is a gaping hole in world demand. It is being filled by governments, all nearing the limit of fiscal stimulus. ... The liquidity is leaking into stocks, metals, and property.

Posted by drewster @ 11:29 PM 4 Comments

"The bottom of the recession has been reached"

The Times: Credit easing brings an early Christmas for retailers

Well-known names, including Dixons, JJB Sports and Threshers, and chains such as House of Fraser and Oasis — owned by Baugur, the troubled Icelandic investor — were reported this year to have had cover withdrawn by one or all of the big three credit insurers. Yet now, in the run-up to the crucial period when retailers stock up for Christmas, the picture is changing dramatically and several of the big credit insurers seem ready to let previously blacklisted companies off the hook.

Posted by devo @ 11:20 PM 0 Comments

Finger Lickin' Protectionism

BBC: China and US in new trade dispute

Disputing sides come out fighting with "China launching an "anti-dumping and anti-subsidy" probe into imports of some US car products and chicken meat. The Commerce Ministry said there were concerns the US imports had "dealt a blow to domestic industries". As protectionism forces increase, the UK economy may suffer.

Posted by alan @ 09:26 PM 0 Comments

Dishonesty now "mainstream"?

Independent: 14% of people lie to get cheaper insurance

After liar loans here we go with liar policies. Does anyone actually tell the truth in the UK?

Posted by chrisch @ 06:53 PM 9 Comments

Experts are warning that mortgage rates could soar to 10%

Times: Lenders ignore Bank rate freeze

If mortgage rates continue to increase like this — and they will, the closer we get to the Bank increasing interest rates — we could soon see mortgage rates of close to 10%.

Posted by mark @ 05:01 PM 11 Comments

Apparently the Conclusion of a Major Piece of Research!!

This Is Money: House Prices May Fall for Three Years

The title is about as bearish as it gets but useful to have anything that stops even for a second the idea that house prices have only one direction to go in and that is up. Article concludes less sellers but also less buyers and lots of unemployed leading to more divorce but seems to forget to say about the lack of money for mortgage lending and the need for hugely overvalued properties to fall back in line with sensible and sustainable lending levels, but I guess that would not get included in a "major piece of research on the economic situation" in the UK !!

Posted by sybil13 @ 03:49 PM 1 Comments

23% of mortgages are interest only

Observer Business: A home loan built on shaky ground

This seems like an extraordinary statistic to me: perhaps it covers lots of mortgages which are technically interest only, but wouldn't be called such by a lay-person? Anyway, if and when interest rates rise, this might make for interesting times for people on such loans.

Posted by doormat @ 03:18 PM 0 Comments

Fancy a 2 bed house in Ashford for £250K?

The Times: An empire for sale

Britain’s best-known buy-to-let landlords may seem unfazed by the prospect of their impending enrichment, but their announcement earlier this month of plans to liquidate their entire portfolio is attracting interest from some most unlikely quarters. Fergus says several Russian buyers have emerged as frontrunners to buy all 700, for which they want £175m-£180m. This makes each house valued at just over £255000. There are plenty on Rightmove in the area for less than £150000. And I thought that this couple were GOOD at Maths!

Posted by sold my soul to the never never never @ 01:08 PM 0 Comments

Chinese export figures were worse than expected by economists

Bbc: China's exports see sharp decline

China's exports continued to decline in August, down 23% from the same month last year

Posted by mark @ 10:57 AM 5 Comments

David Smith

Times Online: Accidental Landlords start to sell

In the past few months a limited supply of properties for sale has put a floor under, and in some areas significantly lifted, prices.

Posted by cass @ 10:17 AM 0 Comments

Bank's policy credibility ebbing

Telegraph: Bank's code of omertà broken

I suppose we should remember that Blanchflower was not on the MPC when the infamous August 2005 rate cut was voted in, against King's wishes. At that time, house prices were stagnant and inflation was rising - it is accepted that this vote alone further stoking the credit boom for another two years by sending the wrong signal and creating a strong moral hazard. But what Blanchflower was advocating in the autumn last year was an early rate cut to head off any downards slip in house prices. This too would have been another crass policy error so in many ways it may have been a good that thing that he didn't get his wish granted.

Posted by paul @ 09:54 AM 3 Comments

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Systemic instability

Telegraph: Cheap dollars are sowing the seeds of the next world crisis

This is hugely significant. China is now more worried about America inflating away its debts than about those debts being exposed to currency risk. Economists at Western banks making money from QE still say deflation is more likely than inflation.

Posted by devo @ 11:48 PM 2 Comments

The Bears are back in town

Moneymarketing: Property Price Party Poopers

Property advisers Jones Lang LaSalle has warned that the recent reports of UK house price increases is merely a rally that will lead to further falls. This week Halifax reported that house prices have increased by 0.8 per cent in August and Nationwide reported that last month was the fourth month in a row where UK house prices had increased - but the property experts expect much more pain into 2010. Jones Lang LaSalle head of residential housing James Thomas says the pick-up is “irrational” and without improved lending, a slowdown of unemployment or an increase in new properties, the market will struggle going into 2012.

Posted by jack c @ 10:30 PM 17 Comments

We know what you did this friday.

Las vegas sun: Regulators seize Corus Bank, plan sale of Vegas projects

Corus Bank, known as the nation's poster child for aggressive condominium development lending during the economic boom, was closed and seized by regulators Friday due to mounting losses. They now plan to sell the bank's loans and inventory of foreclosed properties, which include some high-profile Las Vegas projects.

Posted by mark @ 10:11 PM 0 Comments

Blanchflower's account of how he helped us

New Statesman: The story from the inside

Blanchflower gives his side of the story regarding the MPC's decision making during the crash; he actually admits trying to apply pressure to get his way after the MPC didn't set policy as he desired: (referring to the mid October 2008) "I then started a campaign to get rates down further by talking to various British business leaders, journalists and pressure groups. By the end of October, there was growing pressure from the media that rates needed to be cut again." then persuaded the rest of the MPC to go for a rate cut on 6 November shortly afterwards. Finally, here is a prediction: "the MPC will approve further quantitative easing by November at the very latest. He [King] may even manage to get rates down below 0.5 per cent."

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:21 PM 8 Comments

MGM would have to slice prices by 50 percent or more to close on units,

Las vegas sun: How much will CityCenter slash its condo prices?

CityCenter opens in December when it brings 227 units at Mandarin Oriental, 670 units at Veer Towers and 1,495 at Vdara on line.

Posted by mark @ 06:31 PM 0 Comments

Testing the commercial property market

Times online: Sale of shopping centre seen as litmus test for sector

A shopping centre that was valued at £350 million when it opened at the height of the commercial property boom and is home to Scotland’s largest Marks & Spencer store has been put up for sale after the company behind the development went into receivership. The sale of the Silverburn shopping centre, near Glasgow, is the biggest of its kind this year. However, steep falls in the value of retail property mean that bids are expected to come in between £200 million and £250 million — much lower than the centre’s value in October, 2007. Banks have so far been reluctant to sell off assets where the owners have had trouble with their debts because of the losses they would face after the average fall in commercial property values of 45 per cent from the peak.

Posted by tim miller @ 12:31 PM 0 Comments

Far East banks are piling into the UK mortgage market

FT Adviser: TV 'Dragon' to offer FTB loans

Far East lender Hitachi Capital and Dragons' Den star James Caan are to launch a new loan service for first-time buyers who are struggling to obtain a mortgage. They will offer loans to cover the deposit, raising the original agreed LTV from 75pc of the value of the property to 95pc. It will also cover additional expenses such as legal fees, stamp duty costs and conveyancing, which can sometimes push the borrower over the affordability threshold. Loans of up to £100,000 will be offered exclusively through estate agents, and can be repaid over two to three years. The news is a further shot in the arm for UK borrowers and follows Bank of China's decision to enter the market earlier in the year.

Posted by drewster @ 11:28 AM 16 Comments

Some wishful thinking from RBS chief.

BBC News: Bank boss wary of quick recovery

Stephen Hester, chief executive of Royal Bank of Scotland said that that "a rather gradual emergence from recession" where the economy could "rebalance" was the best way forward. He warned a "spend-not-save" culture could mean further economic downturn. Mr Hester the BBC he wanted to see a situation "where people can save more, borrow less, the balance of payments deficit closes, the government gets its own deficit under control. It is entirely possible that we actually enjoy a rather faster recovery, where people are tempted to say: 'That was a bad nightmare behind us, but don't worry it's gone and we can go back to where we were before."

Posted by wanderinman @ 11:24 AM 4 Comments

180% of GDP

Telegraph: European Commission sees galloping UK debt crisis

The Commission fears Britain will suffer lasting damage as result of the financial crisis and the bursting of the property bubble. Neither banking nor construction will recover quickly, relegating the country to a lower growth trajectory. Brussels warned Britain before the onset of the crisis that public spending was out of hand, repeatedly reminding Gordon Brown that the credit boom was masking the true scale of the problem. The UK ran deficits of 3pc of GDP at the top of the cycle, while Spain was running a surplus of 2pc. Britain was the only major country to face the EU's excessive deficit procedure in 2007, even before recession played havoc with state finances.

Posted by sold out @ 08:39 AM 10 Comments

"A new round of pain"

Wall Street Journal: Regulators Seize Corus Bank

Federal regulators seized Chicago-based Corus Bank on Friday, marking the first major bank to be undone by deteriorating construction and commercial real-estate loans during the current downturn. With total assets of $7 billion, Corus is the third-biggest bank to go bust this year.

Posted by devo @ 01:15 AM 0 Comments

Rare scrap of bear food

This is Money: Property to fall as 'irrational' rally ends

House prices will fall 7% in 2010 once the current 'unsustainable' revival ends, a leading property consultancy has forecast. The bounce in the market, that has seen prices rise by 8.4% since February, will fall away towards the end of the year, says James Thomas, head of the residential department at Jones Lang LaSalle. The 'seemingly irrational' rise in prices is likely to prove only temporary, according to Thomas, who said a double-dip W-shaped outlook for the market is likely. 'While the recent improvement in the market is encouraging, it is impossible to ignore the short-term risks posed to the UK residential sector by rising unemployment and poor credit availability. 'We anticipate the current market revival is unsustainable and predict a further contraction in prices during 2009'

Posted by little professor @ 12:23 AM 3 Comments

Friday, September 11, 2009

Some interesting insider views here...

BBC News: City Diaries: 9 September

It's two years since the credit crunch first entered our language and a year since the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers. The BBC's Aftershock season is investigating the impact of the financial crisis and global recession that followed. This week our diarists reflect on the events of the last two years and ask what lessons have been learnt. These diaries are written by people who work in finance and have had a front row seat as their industry goes through the biggest changes in decades. They give us regular insiders' updates on the mood in the City of London and the dramatic changes in the world of finance.

Posted by hotfoot @ 04:35 PM 0 Comments

Oh the long road to recovery...to 2007 prices

Times Online: Second monthly rise in prices signals housing is on the long road to revival

In what is increasingly coming to be regarded as a long-term upward trend rather than a blip, estate agents said that property prices were rising faster in some parts of the country than the Halifax figures suggest.

Posted by cass @ 04:12 PM 0 Comments

Anne Ashworth again

Times Online: The property market: it’s getting better all the time — but only just

Current conditions in the market — heating up in some spots, but still tepid or chilly in others — may be a disappointment for those who long to get back to where we once belonged: the early months of 2007, before the words credit crunch became common parlance. But if you are sensible enough not to yearn for the days of dangerously spiralling house prices, you will take heart from the increasing signs of stabilisation.

Posted by cass @ 04:10 PM 0 Comments

The wasteful spending of an insane, and out-of-touch government

Mail: Minister uses Soham murders to justify placing one in four Britons on Big Brother child protection d

Not directly related but, this shows the minds who are running the UK. '...Parents could face a £5,000 fine for driving their children's friends to a sports event or Cub Scout meeting if they have not been vetted first by the massive new government agency....it will be the biggest vetting and clearing system in the world.' They only need the agency because Labour are releasing the offenders early, because the prisons are full. Mismanagement or what?

Posted by hpwatcher @ 02:10 PM 57 Comments

It's Friday

The Onion: Thousands Of Abandoned, Foreclosed Homes Threatened By Florida Hurricane

"Those who haven't already lost everything to the housing-market crash are urged to evacuate their homes immediately," said Robert Menken, head meteorologist at the National Weather Bureau. "That should be about 10 or 12 of you. Everyone else, please stay where you are, probably on the couch of some in-law who lives near Atlanta."..."It's a ghost town around here," said Fort Myers native Carol Hodge, who saw some of the neighborhood's last few squatters flee on Monday. "Or, rather, more of a ghost town. People haven't really lived in this county since 2008."

Posted by mountain goat @ 12:18 PM 7 Comments

US National Debt

Cnbc: What Does $11 Trillion Look Like?

It is also interesting to note that this number is approximately 13 times the amount of US currency in circulation, according to the Treasury bulletin, which lists the amount at $853.6 billion as of December 31, 2008.

Posted by mark @ 11:07 AM 6 Comments

Ouch this is gonna hurt...

CNBC: Biggest Real Estate Deal in U.S. History May Default

Three years ago, the sale of the 110 red-brick apartment buildings at Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village in Manhattan represented the most expensive American real estate deal in history. Now the buyers are running out of time and money. Jerry I. and Rob Speyer and their partner, BlackRock Realty, who paid $5.4 billion for the quiet middle-class redoubt near the East River, have seen the property lose more than half of its value, and the income from rent — down 25 percent from its peak — covers less than half of their debt payments.

Posted by mark @ 10:48 AM 3 Comments

Shutting the stable door......again!

FT: To fix the system we must break up the banks

Measures to prevent another dotcom bubble treated symptoms and left systemic flaws intact, paving the way for more banking and corporate shenanigans - derivatives-based leverage of bank balance sheets, which dragged the global economy into recession. Now the G20 is again fighting the last war and is leaving banks with the capacity to mix deposit-taking and speculative investment banking, to act for clients on both sides of a trade and take a proprietary turn out of the middle, to act for the seekers and the providers of capital, to over-trade and create market instability and still leave intact the too-big-to-fail taxpayer backstop. The real problem is not the specific causes of each crisis but the enduring power of finance to be socially and economically disruptive.

Posted by icarus @ 10:26 AM 4 Comments

Wealth warning - residential house prices can fall as well as rise

BBC: Household wealth 'falls by £31k'

UK households saw their wealth drop by an average of almost £31,000 each last year, because of the credit crunch and the recession, research shows. Figures calculated for the BBC show that falling house prices knocked £422bn pounds off the value of the nation's housing wealth. "It is a huge drop to happen in one year," said Martin Ellis, chief economist at the Halifax. "But we have had the biggest house price fall yet seen in just one year, combined with a fall in equity prices," he added.

Posted by jack c @ 10:21 AM 2 Comments

Inflation,inflation,inflation

Yahoo: Producer input prices up in August

The Office for National Statistics said on Friday producer input prices rose by 2.2 percent in August, more than twice as fast as expected

Posted by mark @ 09:51 AM 1 Comments

False Dawn in a Mini Bubble

FT: House price fall tipped after end of 'irrational' rally

Phew a bit of light at the end of the tunnel this week a few bearish articles and reminders that when a large % has turned bullish then usually the market turns.

Posted by sybil13 @ 07:56 AM 72 Comments

Thursday, September 10, 2009

The dominatrix speaks and more

CNBC: House prices could fall another 25% - Whitney

started the day feeling bullish but finding it difficult to sustain. From a lower peak and far less personal debt levels relative to both income and GPD US house prices have fallen >25%. MW sees another 25% to go once the efforts to support the mortgage market are withdrawn begining oct apparently. Here in the uk the efforts to support the mortgage maket are far less open and actually the negative aspects of HP's are far less discussed than, British prurience about their own base envy and greed at its best. I've been banging on about the lack of repossesions and the lack of sales once properties are repossesed, the ultimate QE killing our HPC for now. this is true in both the domestic and commercial mortgage market. MW still bullish on GS, but that's about

Posted by bellwether @ 11:11 PM 1 Comments

Don't buy the dips

Forbes: Forget Housing, Says Bill Gross

The manager of the world’s largest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., Gross argues that homeownership is on the wane because Americans are developing a habit of saving and will no longer trust their houses to play piggy-bank. The new world will be characterized by “delevering, deglobalization, and regulation” – that is, shedding debt.

Posted by mountain goat @ 10:42 PM 0 Comments

No Mercy Across the Pond

Bloomberg: U.S. Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 for Sixth Straight Month

"Foreclosure filings in the U.S. exceeded 300,000 for the sixth straight month as job losses that boosted the unemployment rate to a 26-year high left many homeowners unable to keep up with their mortgage payments. A total of 358,471 properties received a default or auction notice or were seized last month, according to data provider RealtyTrac Inc. That’s up 18 percent from a year earlier". Aren't you glad Mandelson is confident of the UK's future?

Posted by alan @ 10:26 PM 0 Comments

What do they know?

Cnn: Insiders sell like there's no tomorrow

Can hundreds of stock-selling insiders be wrong? The stock market has mounted an historic rally since it hit a low in March. The S&P 500 is up 55%, as U.S. job losses have slowed and credit markets have stabilized. But against that improving backdrop, one indicator has turned distinctly bearish: Corporate officers and directors have been selling shares at a pace last seen just before the onset of the subprime malaise two years ago.

Posted by mark @ 10:13 PM 0 Comments

Vegas home sales slip as prices continue fall

Las vegas sun: Vegas home sales slip as prices continue fall

The red-hot Las Vegas housing market cooled off a bit in August as home and condo sales dropped and prices edged lower.

Posted by mark @ 10:03 PM 0 Comments

For all the bears losing the faith

Telegraph: Recovery talk is meaningless to the man with his P45 in the post

For those with a vested interest in talking up recovery – and there are plenty of them – this has been a good week. As if performing the hit song from Gold Diggers of Broadway, they have been painting the clouds with sunshine. Profligate ministers, ineffective regulators and reckless bankers who conspired, albeit unwittingly, to create this humdinger of a financial crisis are delighted to identify salvation's early arrival: property prices are up, the jobs market is improving, and the stock market seems more like a playground than a graveyard.

Posted by waitingtobuy @ 08:17 PM 0 Comments

Pleas unheard

FT: No more second chances

Here is a tale for our times if ever I heard one. It is about a 27-year-old who earns £25,000 and has unsecured debts of £21,000. She is a friend of a friend and came asking me for help. I do not suspect her case is rare. She graduated with a science degree from a four-year course at a good university having had no financial help through her time there. She worked, but it was not enough. After graduating she had to move away from home to find a job, moving in to a cheap shared flat in London. She does not live extravagantly – she shares a flat with three other people her age. But she does live like a normal 20-something: going out on Saturday nights, taking one holiday a year. And yet in this time she has racked up this incredible amount of debt. Her monthly take-home pay is £1600.

Posted by jack c @ 07:44 PM 17 Comments

One for the precious metal bears

Times Online: Why it may not be time to invest in gold

David Budworth explains why should shouldn't invest in gold despite it breaking the $1000 barrier. I disagree on just one point, you shouldn't invest in gold because it has broken the $1000 barrier. A lot of future inflation and currency meltdown is already priced in, and in my view, probably too much is priced in.

Posted by jonb @ 01:04 PM 7 Comments

No change, no increase in QE

BBC 'News': UK interest rates remain on hold

And no mention of any negative interest rate lunacy.

Posted by paul @ 12:06 PM 13 Comments

Jail terms would change behaviour

Ft: More prison sentences may renew financial credibility

How many financiers do you think ended up in jail after America's Savings and Loan scandals? The answer can be found in a fascinating old report from the United States Department of Justice*. If there is no retribution against financiers, it will be difficult to force a real change in behaviour. After all, no amount of twiddling with Basel rules or pious statements about bonuses will ever scare a financier as much as the thought of jail.

Posted by mken @ 11:00 AM 1 Comments

Passing the Buck (pun intented)

Citywire: House builder heralds the end of rabbit hutch Britain

House builder Redrow is shifting its focus back to building family homes and away from city centre blocks. The group remains confident about its outlook despite reporting a full year pre-tax loss from trading operations before exceptionals of £44.2 million, down from a £65.5 million profit the year before. Steve Morgan who returned to the company as chairman earlier this year said the group's original business model been focused on building family homes and that is where his expertise is - which is fortunate since he believes increasing numbers of people are looking to invest in this type of property.

Posted by jack c @ 10:35 AM 16 Comments

More Banks Charge Borrowers Percentage Fees

E1 News: UK Lenders Prefer Percentage Arrangement Fees to Fixed

One of the latest researches conducted by an online financial company showed that more and more British banks and building societies tend to impose percentage fees on residential mortgages, which fact poses significant problems for borrowers in need of large loans (it should also be remembered that they already struggle to get approved for a high LTV due to scarce mortgage availability).

Posted by rick bales @ 10:27 AM 0 Comments

Keep buying dummies

BBC: On the Brink

Stephen Nolan hosts a live discussion on the effects the credit crunch is having locally, challenging financial leaders, businessmen and government officials to respond to pertinent questions from the public.

Posted by doomwatch @ 09:51 AM 0 Comments

Spot on imo!

The independent: Adrian Hamilton: Sorry, but the recession is not over

That is the problem with economists. "Making a speech on economics," President Lyndon Johnson once remarked, "is a lot like pissing down your leg. It seems hot to you, but it never does to anyone else."

Posted by waitingtobuy @ 09:34 AM 0 Comments

Halifax latest - hot off the press

BBC: House prices 'increase by 0.8%'

House prices rose by 0.8% in August compared with July - the second monthly rise in a row, says the Halifax. Property values were 10.1% lower in the three months to August compared with the same period a year ago, the survey found. The average UK home was now valued at £160,973, said the Halifax, now part of the Lloyds Banking Group. A lack of supply and greater demand for homes has pushed up prices in recent times, various surveys suggest.

Posted by jack c @ 09:22 AM 2 Comments

Halifax: +0.8% for August

Halifax: Halifax: +0.8% for August

"The average UK house price rose by 0.8% in August. This was the second successive monthly increase and the fourth in the first eight months of 2009. Overall, house prices nationally are very similar to the level at the end of last year. Demand for housing has increased since the start of the year due to better affordability and low interest rates. This, together with low levels of property available for sale, has boosted house prices over the last few months."

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 09:20 AM 55 Comments

House price rise of 0.8%

HALIFAX: HBOS

The average UK house price rose by 0.8% in August. This was the second successive monthly increase and the fourth in the first eight months of 2009. Overall, house prices nationally are very similar to the level at the end of last year. Demand for housing has increased since the start of the year due to better affordability and low interest rates. This, together with low levels of property available for sale, has boosted house prices over the last few months."

Posted by rob @ 09:15 AM 0 Comments

Bears Are Wrong

Market Oracle: Bull Market Deniers

I seem to have began to rethink my bearish stance at more than a superficial level. Actually had a restless night as a consequence. I am thinking specifically in stocks where the survivors eg a few large US banks are going to carve up even a smaller cake amongst fewer people. Anyway the attached article and the related articles are the best attempts I've read at a Bullish stance. NW sees a multi year bull market emerging from here he has also been about right on direction throughout this year. What he is best at though is explaining why bears can get fixed in their own logic like a wasp in amber. Bears may still be right at a basic level, credit growth is ult unsustainable, but we could get a run for a year or 2 before that bites again. My shift in perspective doesn't include houses in uk

Posted by bellwether @ 08:30 AM 18 Comments

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Recovery Built on Unstable Foundations

FT: Auctions point to falls in house prices

You have to register to read this one but essentially the article is saying that the average auction price is 30% down on what could be achieved through an estate agent, but what I am not sure about is whether that means the property is down 40 - 50% given that the sold value via an EA is probably down 15% from peak or more. Its not really news that property needs to be down 30% from peak in order to sell in todays market, I am of the understanding lenders are valuing 30% below peak and up to 40% for remortgages. What we need is for the market to stop being in denial of what is stopping property from selling (average sales per agent currently 1 or less per month) and adjust to TODAYS market and stop thinking that next year or the year after property is going to go back up to 2007 values!

Posted by sybil13 @ 11:59 PM 8 Comments

The tyranny of consensus

The Times: Mervyn King's 'old iron fist' missed the recession

David Blanchflower, former MPC member, lashes out at Mervyn King for ignoring his early warnings about looming recession

Posted by devo @ 11:53 PM 4 Comments

Breaking ranks

The Times: Goldman boss calls pay anger 'understandable'

Goldman Sachs' chief executive admitted that anger over bankers' stratospheric pay was largely "understandable and appropriate" and called on rivals to dump multi-year guaranteed bonuses. Lloyd Blankfein said that there was little justification for the payment of outsized discretionary compensation by loss-making banks. Only junior employees should get most of their pay in cash, he said, with the percentage of compensation made in equity increasing with a workers' seniority. Senior executives should be required to keep most of their equity, even if they leave the bank.

Posted by devo @ 11:27 PM 2 Comments

The UK has already used up its conventional policy ammunition. The cupboard is bare.

Independent: What happens to us if everyone else rushes for the financial exit?

"What if they (other nations) collectively felt that the industrialised world was over the worst and that it would no longer be appropriate to bail economies out through unusually lax fiscal policies or unusually generous monetary policies? The UK would then be on its own. It would also be in big trouble. The UK desperately needs the help of other nations to pull itself out of the recessionary mire."

Posted by wanderinman @ 10:23 PM 1 Comments

See how different countries compare

BBC News: The cost of the financial meltdown: Deficits and spending

Even before the crisis began, the UK had one of the highest annual budget deficits among developed countries. This graphic shows starkly how in the space of just three years it goes astronomic. While some countries had surpluses to call on to fund their stimulus, the UK has just carried on piling debt on debt. This is how the UK is attempting a recovery. Its a short term sugar rush which will have to be paid back.

Posted by wanderinman @ 10:16 PM 0 Comments

Muppet calls Muppets Muppets

BBC: Former rate-setter turns on Bank

"A former Bank of England rate-setter has criticised it for not spotting the recession and then not acting decisively enough to avoid it." Well done Mr B - you managed to spot the recession coming at the same time as my car mechanic and the half of the population that has an IQ above 100 - in August 2008 - a full 12 months after Wogan started talking about sub-prime. Just because you're slightly less retarded than King doesn't make you the Emperor.

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 09:11 PM 12 Comments

FTSE close to breaking through the 5000 mark

FT: Stronger outlook lifts FTSE 100 towards 5,000

Positive trade data showing UK exports rising at their fastest pace since Jan 2008 helped push the FTSE upwards to within touching distance of 5000 mark.

Posted by denzil @ 03:15 PM 14 Comments

Mortgage lenders fail to pass on savings

Guardian: Fixed-rate mortgage costs rise

* Money * Mortgages Fixed-rate mortgage costs rise Interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages are rising despite a falling inter-bank rate, according to Bank of England figures

Posted by mken @ 02:48 PM 0 Comments

US hpc bankrupting the wealthy

Bloomberg: Wealthy Families Succumb to Bankruptcy as Real Estate Crashes

Actor Stephen Baldwin sought voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in July after lenders began foreclosure proceedings. Baldwin, 43, listed $1.1 million in assets and $2.3 million in debt in documents filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in White Plains, New York. His home is valued at $1.1 million and the banks sought to recover about $1.2 million in mortgage loans, according to court papers.... “Real-estate is an incredible thing on the downside,” said Jason Green, a bankruptcy attorney based in Washington. “Equities can only go to zero. Property can go well below zero,”

Posted by mountain goat @ 01:22 PM 3 Comments

What's really happening?

Money week: Four reasons why UK house prices will keep falling

''Yesterday saw another sign that Britain's housing market is bottoming out. Or so you'd have thought from some of the media coverage. But on a closer look, the latest residential lettings survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) wasn't really that upbeat at all. And it certainly hasn't changed our view that house prices in the UK still have some way to fall.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 12:34 PM 29 Comments

Regulatory Capital

Guardian: Dirty tricks by porn industry

This article is about sharp practice by the porn industry, but has an interesting snippet at the end. "New capital requirements mean that it costs a building society almost 10 times as much in regulatory capital terms to offer a 90% home loan rather than one set at 60%." I haven't read all that much about what the new capital requirements actually are, but if that is the case, banks can make 10x60% loans -or- 1x90% loan, which would certainly explain the absence of high LTVs and also means that there is a profit motive for banks to push home prices down given av.deposit of 30K to around 100K, offset by forcing up their losses on repossessed existing loans. That the banks (our unloved masters)profit from dramatically lower house prices seems to me that the gov. have silently killed housing.

Posted by stillthinking @ 11:22 AM 5 Comments

The Most Laughable Initiative Of All Time

BBC: Go-ahead for 2,000 council homes

"Ministers have given the go-ahead for 2,000 council houses to be built across England - as a report says there is too much emphasis on building new homes. The project, covering 47 areas, is being described as the biggest of its kind over the past 20 years." WOT? Yes, two thousand. If they'd said 200,000 I'd have shouted yippee, but 2,000? At that rate it will take them eight hundred years to build one for every family on the waiting lists ... oh hang on, they'll all be dead by then anyway. Problem solved!

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:04 AM 25 Comments

Get ready for a last minute run to the IMF (Northern Rock Style)

Citywire: Downgrade in UK’s credit rating ‘unlikely’

While the UK has been severely hit by the global economic and financial crisis, credit rating agency Moody's says it does not expect to strip the country of its prized triple A rating. The agency said the UK, alongside the US, counts among the countries least vulnerable to a downgrade. The news comes just days after both Alistair Darling and David Cameron said the level of debt here - which some say could rise above 100% of GDP in the next couple of years - means spending cuts are inevitable. Falling tax receipts and surging spending means many commentators are increasingly concerned about future fiscal policy in the UK. The Institute of Fiscal Studies has warned it could take twenty years for the UK to reduce its borrowing to more normal levels.

Posted by jack c @ 10:02 AM 3 Comments

Signs of Optimism for the BTL

Times: Rental market supply tightens as the accidental landlords finally decide to sell

The number of rental properties coming onto the market is falling quickly as increased property sales over the summer months coupled with a accidental landlords being encouraged to sell. This could result in upward pressure on rents due to a combination of lack of finance available for FTB and a housing market that is still over-priced thus forcing people to rent. Whilst this situation remains, many BTL landlords may see a likely increase in rents as an attractive proposition and increase their portfolios. Could we end up with a cultural shift away from the aspiration of property ownership and gettings ones foot on ladder to an acceptance of a rental as being the norm, as is common in other European contries?

Posted by denzil @ 09:50 AM 8 Comments

Dward and Maria Moller are worried about losing their house — not now, but in 2013

Nytimes: The House Trap

That is when the suburban San Diego schoolteachers will see their mortgage payments jump, most likely beyond their ability to pay.

Posted by mark @ 08:48 AM 0 Comments

Banks aren't extending credit and consumers don't want it anyway

Cnn: Consumers won't bail out economy

Just how stressed American consumers -- and their lenders -- feel was evident in the latest consumer credit report issued Tuesday by the Federal Reserve. The amount of credit outstanding fell by a record $21.6 billion in July, the sixth straight month of decline. This was about five times the amount economists predicted and the longest consecutive decline since 1991.

Posted by mark @ 08:43 AM 1 Comments

Alan Greenspan's predictions

BBC: Market crisis 'will happen again'

However, he think the next crisis will be completely different and unfortunately he doesn't seem to think we can see these crises coming. Perhaps he ought to have read Housepricecrash a few years ago.

Posted by tenyearstogetmymoneyback @ 08:07 AM 7 Comments

"The crisis will happen again but it will be different," he told BBC Two's The Love of Money series

Bbc: The world will suffer another financial crisis, former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan has told the BBC.

He added that he had predicted the crash would come as a reaction to a long period of prosperity.

Posted by chris @ 04:18 AM 0 Comments

They think it's all over

City A.M.: Housing market no longer over-valued

We should focus on one of the most intriguing good news stories of the past few months: the end of the great collapse in house prices. I remember getting scathing emails three months ago when I argued the housing market had turned; but I’m more certain than ever that I called this right. House prices are edging up again, albeit on still low transaction numbers. The average house price/earnings ratio is down to 4.36, still slightly above the 1983-2008 average of 4.0 times but well down from the peak of 5.84. Affordability is excellent at the moment. Property is once again attractive to buy-to-let investors. The great bust of 2007-09 seems to have come to an end earlier than many had feared.

Posted by little professor @ 04:00 AM 51 Comments

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Recent frugality could strangle the recovery

MarketWatch: Consumer credit down record amount in July

This is the sixth straight monthly drop in consumer credit -- the longest consecutive string of declines in credit since the second half of 1991.

Posted by devo @ 09:47 PM 2 Comments

Buffett to buy distressed mortgage finance company

247wallst.com: Buffett Gets Deeper Into Housing and Real Estate

I doubt if this can be classed as a vote of confidence in housing returning to normal as the article suggests. Buffett has a good eye for a bargain. "Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) is teaming up with Leucadia National Corp. (NYSE: LUK) to acquire the North American mortgage and servicing operations of Capmark Financial Group Inc... Capmark is said to be looking for a debt restructuring and also looking at options for its business holdings as it has discussed bankruptcy protection as a possibility. "

Posted by mountain goat @ 05:51 PM 5 Comments

Grin and Bear it

Zero Hedge: Excess liquidity game coming to an end

Tough being bearish these past few months and especially now as we continue to climb into September. Just some interesting comments from David Rosenberg to keep us going. As Albert Edwards put it in the FT" Once again, equity participants are missing the big picture. For despite clear signs from the business surveys of some sort of second half recovery, firm evidence is emerging that the global economy is sliding towards a full-blown deflationary episode once this recovery falters. "We heartily concur with GMO's Jeremy Grantham who remarked recently that after 20 years of more or less permanent overvaluation of US equities, we saw just five months of under-pricing through the March trough. Do bursting global equity valuation bubbles really end like this? Of course they don't."

Posted by bellwether @ 04:48 PM 0 Comments

Worst financial crisis since 1929? Don't know what all the fuss was about.Boom times are back!Yeeha!

Telegraph: UK recession is over, NIESR says

The UK's recession is over, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research has predicted, with the economy returning to growth for the first time since May last year.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 04:44 PM 2 Comments

Its all going Pete Tong - hold on UK......

BBC News: Pension fund deficit widens again

"A £173bn deficit on any measure underlines why pensions will be a major boardroom headache not only in the recession but well into any recovery," Poor boomers??....

Posted by lambstotheslaughter @ 04:21 PM 2 Comments

High Street better hold on tight............

BBC News: High Street sales fall back again

.....July's 20% growth was driven by promotions rather "any return of consumer confidence". The BRC also issued a stark warning about sales figures in the coming months. Enough said.

Posted by lambstotheslaughter @ 04:00 PM 1 Comments

Coming to an advertising hoarding near you soon

Mortgagestrategy: Anti-repossession campaign launched

Housing minister John Healey has today launched a national campaign to help struggling homeowners take control of their finances and avoid repossession. A series of press, online and billboard advertisements will highlight the measures the government has put in place at every stage for homeowners to avoid repossession. The advertisements will point people to an advice line and a website illustrating the practical steps they can take to resolve their mortgage repayment worries. While this will be a national campaign, extra advertisements will appear in 22 hotspots - areas facing a greater risk of increased repossessions due to higher levels of unemployment and numbers of court orders.

Posted by jack c @ 03:56 PM 1 Comments

100 sexiest women

Reuters: IMF suggests earlier recovery

Economic recovery may come three months earlier than forecast, the head of the International Monetary Fund said

Posted by smiling @ 03:55 PM 3 Comments

Today's Front Page

Daily Express: LOW INTEREST RATES TO STAY

MILLIONS of home buyers and owners can look forward to record low interest rates until at least the end of next year, experts predicted yesterday. The news that maintaining interest rates at current levels is “almost inevitable” will be a boost to consumers struggling through the recession. However, savers are likely to be dismayed by the forecast, particularly those who rely on the interest from their savings to supplement their income. Nicholas Leeming, director of website propertyfinder.com, said: “Sustained low base rates will provide a supreme boost to the property market and aid the speed of recovery.

Posted by luckyjim @ 03:47 PM 20 Comments

Would panic prevail?

Cnn: When Wall Street nearly collapsed

On the Wednesday and Thursday before Lehman filed for Chapter 11, I asked my wife to please go to the ATM and take as much cash as she could. When she asked why, I said it was because I didn't know whether there was a chance that banks might not open. I remember my wife sort of pausing and saying, "Are you serious?" And I said, "Yes, I am."

Posted by mark @ 03:42 PM 5 Comments

The sweet joys of banking

Citywire: How Abbey turned my life upside down

here was i thinking Abbey was one of the better outfits...!

Posted by smithers @ 03:00 PM 0 Comments

Limited Mortgages Very Few Sales and Further Falls on the Cards

RICS: Outlook improving but housing market not out of the woods yet

RICS trying to ramp what is essentially bad news for those who see house price rises as good news! Eventually I suppose everyone will get the message that with very limited mortgage availability , (and Rightmove's last HPI said this will not improve for years), repossesions, high unemployment , rising interest rates property has to fall back in line with sensible and sustainable lending , which is GOOD NEWS for anyone who didn't buy in the last few years.

Posted by sybil13 @ 02:41 PM 3 Comments

Reach for the hangover cure because house prices have a long way to fall yet

Lovemoney: Why I Hate High Prices

Always worth flagging an article by Cliff D’Arcy . 8 Reasons why, despite those with vested interest telling us otherwise, rising house prices are bad for Britain as a whole. Ending with: "In summary, another property boom and bust would be disastrous for the UK -- but I don't expect the recent trend of rising prices to continue. Don't get your hopes up, as we're not at the bottom yet. A twelve-year borrowing binge needs a much nastier hangover than what we've suffered so far." In fact, in the last crash, it took nine years for house prices to return to their 1989 peak, so I think we've a long, long way to go yet...

Posted by sybil13 @ 02:25 PM 0 Comments

How to exit a recession.

BBC News: University 'way out of recession'

Extra university places should be funded as a way out of recession and unemployment, says the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 12:27 PM 9 Comments

Las Vegas housing down another third

BBC News: Repossession capital of the US

People queue for food donations in Las Vegas, which suffers from some of the highest rates of unemployment and foreclosures in the US

Posted by mr_punter @ 11:48 AM 0 Comments

Gold up: economy and houses down?

FT: Gold’s round number

"It is a fair bet that some this week will be gunning for gold to break $1,000. If it does so convincingly, this will no longer be just a technical story but one of wider significance."

Posted by letthemfall @ 11:38 AM 14 Comments

Supervision at global level

BBC News: Central banks back new regulation

Can anybody clarify what is going on ? BIS has totally immunity and is apparently above the law. This group are owned by central banks which have now been given the green light for global supervision. This is really quite daunting to think that a group with legal immunity and in effect a lawless society is in control of reshaping the financial world. The euro has replaced franc, mark etc, the planned destruction of the dollar is now looking obvious. On March 10, 2003, the BIS abandoned the Swiss gold franc as the bank's unit of account and replaced it with the SDR (Special Drawing Rights) and is a unit of currency originally created by the IMF. This "basket" currently consists of the euro, yen, sterling and the US$. Is the $ in the way for the 'SDR' to become the worlds reserve currency?

Posted by debtfree @ 11:20 AM 8 Comments

Appropriate and sensible lending is the key.......

Citywire: The Citywire Debate: Should mortgage lending be regulated?

Why are we still having this debate and why has nothing been done two years after the Northern Rock fiasco.

Posted by z_boson @ 10:27 AM 1 Comments

Talking about pants staying up...

Cnn: WaMu: The forgotten failure

"We're still waiting to see how the Wachovia and Washington Mutual portfolios play out," said Brian Olasov, who studies the banking industry as managing director at law firm McKenna Long & Aldridge. "We've got a big bulge in resets still to come."

Posted by mark @ 09:13 AM 0 Comments

But, but ... it's not gone up 10%!

The Telegraph: Buy-to-let investors backing out of off-plan deals face court action

Oh dear, fingers burned. Buy to let investors who bought off plan a couple of years ago are horrified to discover that they had signed contracts. These pesky bits of paper did not entitle them to guaranteed carpet bagging profits through brilliant investment insight, but have obliged them to buy properties worth less than the face value at the time, let alone what was expected. After a series of judgments, it seems that the courts can enforce these contracts and, without funding in place from tricky to find BTL mortgages, the would be BTLers face debt action.

Posted by jonathan @ 08:54 AM 9 Comments

Perspective from across the pond

Bloomberg: Get Ready for Double Dip in U.K. Property Prices

It doesn’t take much to get the British excited about house prices again. Is the slump is over? Not at all. Expect a double dip in home values. Don’t be fooled by the slight recovery in house prices over a few months. Markets always stabilize for a period, both on the way up and on the way down. It is just a pause for breath -- and the second dip in the crash is just around the corner.

Posted by little professor @ 08:49 AM 27 Comments

UK Government Might Extend Stamp Duty Holiday

E1 News: Stamp Duty Holiday – to Be Extended or Not?

The break, known as stamp duty holiday, allowing buyers not to pay the stamp duty tax if the property they purchase costs less than £175,000, will no longer be available at the end of this year.

Posted by anna smith @ 07:53 AM 1 Comments

It's the rehypothecation clauses, stupid.

The Times: Lehman’s £10.4bn hangover points to need for insolvency regime shake-up

Clients of Lehman Brothers’ UK business are still waiting for the return of $17 billion (£10.4 billion) of assets almost a year after the collapse of the investment bank. $639 billion of assets are wrapped up in a cat’s cradle of trades and investments across a vast array of jurisdictions, subsidiaries and clients. The bankruptcy exposed ignorance among supposedly sophisticated financial institutions about the status of their assets held by Lehman’s UK business.

Posted by devo @ 06:27 AM 3 Comments

"When people realise that this stimulus money’s going to run out, that the US doesn’t have unlimited

Businessspectator: Abhorrent behaviour on Wall St, is that still going on?

Absolutely. Yeah. That’s the saddest thing about this whole episode. It took a major financial crisis that almost bankrupted the global financial system to make people realise that we had a very serious problem occurring in our financial system and what did we do? We raced around like Humpty Dumpty soldiers and horses trying to put the old system back together again and we put together these banks that were too big to fail. We put back together the credit default swap market and the derivatives market which is so interconnected you can’t allow anybody to claim bankruptcy. We tried to put back together the securitisation market which allowed banks to completely flush assets with no risk to their balance sheets and to throw all the risk onto other parties and so, you know,

Posted by chris @ 06:24 AM 0 Comments

Oh no, here we go again.

UK Bubble: In August, QE hit the economy

The MSM failed to pick up on the fact that UK banks have begun using all that extra cash produced through quantitative easing. In August, reserve balance (bankers deposits at the Bank of England fell by 6 percent). Its most likely destination is new mortgage lending. It could be the beginning of a renewed housing bubble, which is of course, the primary objective of UK macroeconomic policy. Why do we do this to ourselves?. Does the UK economy have to go through these repeated cycles of housing boom and bust? It seems so.

Posted by inflationwatch @ 12:24 AM 0 Comments

Monday, September 7, 2009

It kicks off with the BTL losers

BBC Radio Ulster: Steve Nolan Show

Great listen ... "Its been a ticking time bomb for the past two years, people who bought property at the peak of the boom and have watched as the value has fallen. Now they are worth up to a third less than the price they agreed. Its left many people facing high court action or bankruptcy."

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:56 PM 5 Comments

The 3rd double dip warning in the past 7 days..

Yahoo: Stiglitz warns of economic double dip

US economist Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics, warned Monday that the global economy could suffer a double dip, a pronounced rebound giving way to another slide.

Posted by mark @ 07:59 PM 10 Comments

Dollar bashing

Bloomberg: UN Says New Currency Is Needed to Fix Broken ‘Confidence Game’

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar’s role in international trade should be reduced by establishing a new currency to protect emerging markets from the “confidence game” of financial speculation, the United Nations said. UN countries should agree on the creation of a global reserve bank to issue the currency and to monitor the national exchange rates of its members, the Geneva-based UN Conference on Trade and Development said today in a report.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 06:34 PM 7 Comments

Global Financial Control through FSB

Irish Times: G20 plans to reshape financial system

The G20 has asked Mr Draghi to draft guidelines to control bank executives’ bonuses as part of his overall mandate to write a plan to reshape the global financial system and avert future crises....? The Bank of International Settlements created Basel II, which is an accounting rule that required US banks in Nov 2007 to adjust the value of their marketable securities (such as mortgage-backed securities) to the “market price” of the security. When one particular bank did seek to sell some of these securities, they got bargain basement prices. Instantly, that meant that the hundreds of billions of dollars of these securities being held by banks around the world had to be marked down. BIS knew this would happen, why else let it happen and now tell us the financial system needs reshaping?

Posted by debtfree @ 03:11 PM 4 Comments

Social housing reform

Guardian: * Comment is free Making room to move

Nothing will happen of course but good to see this in the paper, maybe for another era. Suggests that the solution to social housing is to end security/inheritance of tenure, as apparently the bulk of social housing provides more rooms than existing tenants need, while new and many existing applicants have to squash in to what becomes available. Reminds me a bit of Westminster offering 100K to social housing recipients just to get them out to make space. There is always a way to make money in the UK...

Posted by stillthinking @ 01:53 PM 8 Comments

Over ambitious developer wastes stubborn tenant

BBC News: Developer guilty of tenant murder

A developer who arranged the killing of a tenant after he had refused to leave a building earmarked for a £2m property deal has been convicted of his murder.

Posted by mr_punter @ 01:38 PM 0 Comments

Whats obvious is obviously wrong.

Weekend FT: Learn to expect the unexpected

Anthony Bolton says: "When I became optimistic about markets in the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, I received a huge amount of push-back from the audiences that I spoke to. Didn’t I understand that the economic outlook was dire and possibly the worst for a generation, they asked me?" "One surprise about the stock market is that, often, it doesn’t move in a rational or logical way. As a result, people who succeed in other walks of life through a logical approach to business are perplexed that they are unable to do as well in the stock market by using similar methods" Yep old AB went a bit too soon but then managed to get his second breath. This might be of interest to some of you. Sorry if you cant see the whole article.

Posted by techieman @ 01:38 PM 19 Comments

Viva Espana!!!!!!

Yahoo: Spain's rich eye stocks, overseas property

Shouldn't the first sentence read: "With Spain languishing in what many economists consider will be a prolonged recession, its rich have returned to buying shares, encouraged by a decoupling of the stock market from REALITY".

Posted by bystander @ 12:43 PM 1 Comments

Rates could rise sharply early next year'

Telegraph.co.uk: Interest rates 'could rise sharply early next year'

Interest rates could start to rise early next year – and by more than in previous cycles, according to an economist at a City fund manager. This would cause a large rise in mortgage repayments for borrowers on tracker and other variable-rate mortgages, some of whom are staying afloat financially only because interest rates are currently at an all-time low.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 12:29 PM 7 Comments

This should help housing

Yahoo: Irish tax reform proposals

(Reuters) - Ireland should introduce an annual property tax

Posted by mark @ 12:25 PM 1 Comments

Another look at the median salary...

MSN Carrers: What Britain earns

Which mmay help confirm the normal house price (not that we already were unaware of that). I notice though there is some discrepancy in the hourly rate, which I do not think is relevant in some (or most of the) cases (like teachers). Of course if you work 15 h/week even if you are on 15£/h that only makes 225 £/week or 900/month. Which is not a lot to meet the bills.

Posted by bulboy @ 11:35 AM 0 Comments

You can do it too

Telegraph: Geoff Hurst: from World Cup final to the dole queue and back

Slightly off topic- but interesting read about a bloke who doesent think the world owes him a living and prepared to work hard for it. The alternative is to sit round and wait for a crash! Food for thought?

Posted by smiling @ 11:20 AM 2 Comments

Making your mind up?

BBC News: Hope for US housing market

A year after the US government bailed out mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the country's housing market is making modest gains.

Posted by smiling @ 10:30 AM 12 Comments

And the answer was to just give the banks limitless supplies of cash. Problem solved.

Guardian: UK was hours from bank shutdown

FSA ready to close cash machines during crisis

Posted by flintster1994 @ 09:55 AM 0 Comments

More words of wisdom from a true economics guru!

Timesonline: The impossible happens

We have become used to unusual things happening, but 2009 could see something many consider impossible. House prices could show an overall rise this year even as mortgage debt falls. When the norm has been for prices to rise only in tandem with increased borrowing, this would be a surprise.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 09:40 AM 20 Comments

I'ts like being in a time warp!

Timesonline: Return of the bonus boys in the home market

Politicians may not like it, but the City is paying bonuses again — which are driving the market

Posted by flintster1994 @ 09:38 AM 1 Comments

The Greater Depression 2010

Telegraph: Barack Obama accused of making 'Depression' mistakes

Barack Obama is committing the same mistakes made by policymakers during the Great Depression, according to a new study endorsed by Nobel laureate James Buchanan.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 08:31 AM 0 Comments

China and her dollar holdings.

Telegraph: China, Bernanke, and the price of gold

China has issued what amounts to the “Beijing Put” on gold. You can make a lot of money, but you really can’t lose. I happened to see quite a bit of Cheng Siwei at the Ambrosetti Workshop, a gathering of politicians and global strategists at Lake Como, including a dinner at Villa d’Este last night at which he listened very attentively as a number of American guests tore President Obama’s economic and health policy to shreds.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 08:28 AM 4 Comments

Sunday, September 6, 2009

On behalf of the people: thank you Gordon; thank you G20

The Times: The world is as one on not endangering recovery

Gordon Brown is usually right when it comes to macroeconomics. With hindsight, it is clear that the G20 summit in London last April really did mark the turning point in the global financial crisis, as he said it would.

Posted by devo @ 11:49 PM 4 Comments

Desperation

The Telegraph: Bank considers new measures to stop lenders hoarding

The Bank of England may introduce negative interest rates for the first time in British history this week, economists said.

Posted by devo @ 11:28 PM 22 Comments

Banks may not be able to quietly inflate property prices to save their balance sheets much longer

Guardian: Banks are overvaluing toxic property loans, experts warn

Key quote: ""Japan's long agony in the 80s and 90s after a property price crash should teach us one single lesson – it's far better to take the pain up front and move on than trying to hide overvalued property off balance sheet for years on end. Our government must not sweep this £500bn problem under the carpet until after the election." Matthew Oakeshott, Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman

Posted by tpbeta @ 09:30 PM 3 Comments

Friends in high places

The Telegraph: MPs making up to £5,000 an hour during the summer holidays

John Gummer, the Conservative former Environment Secretary, was paid £1,666 for 20 minutes work, the equivalent of £5,000 an hour, on behalf of Sovereign Reversions Ltd, an equity release firm. Oliver Letwin, the Tory police chief, was paid £5,020 for 35 hours work by merchant bank NM Rothschild & Son. Nick Raynsford, a former housing minister registered £11,416 for 47 hours work with three housing organisations.

Posted by devo @ 08:55 PM 2 Comments

“Many people have bought recently thanks to low rates and the first-home owner grant and some will

Smh: The risk of unemployment combined with negative equity could catch out young borrowers.

The risk of unemployment combined with negative equity could catch out young borrowers. The predicted rate hikes would take the cash interest rate to 3.75 percent, a move that would add $119 to the monthly repayment on a $300,000 mortgage.Meanwhile, the Federal Government boost to the first-home owner grant will halve on October 1 and disappear at the end of the year, potentially undermining buoyant prices at the lower end of the housing market. “Many people have bought recently thanks to low rates and the first-home owner grant and some will be in trouble when rates rise,” says Martin North, the financial services director with Fujitsu

Posted by chris @ 08:47 PM 0 Comments

Tulip mania

FT: Lehman rise leads bankrupt stock rally

Almost a year after it filed for bankruptcy, the value of Lehman Brothers shares has soared amid a surge in trading activity. Other bankrupt companies – where the value of shares is usually close to zero because equity investors are compensated only after all creditors have been repaid – have also seen a frenzy of trading in the last few days. “It is tulip mania... People have decided a stock is worth something based on nothing. The facts are quite the contrary.”

Posted by devo @ 08:46 PM 1 Comments

AEP: Deflation is spreading

The Daily Telegraph: Does the world have the courage to deal with its debts?

Deflation is spreading from the core of the global system to the most unexpected regions of the world. It has even reached Latin America. Prices are sliding in Peru, Chile, Colombia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador, to the consternation of everybody. We face the devastating consequences of our own credit delusions. Are we up it?

Posted by apophis @ 08:19 PM 2 Comments

More downward pressure on residential house prices if these proposals go live

BBC Business: Building societies fear new rules

Building societies say planned new regulation will make it difficult for them to compete with banks. Proposals from the Financial Services Authority, the City watchdog, include plans to limit riskier types of lending by building societies. These could include high loan-to-value mortgages for borrowers with small deposits and buy-to-let mortgages.

Posted by jack c @ 07:49 PM 2 Comments

Vince Cable, Gillian Tett and Paul Mason invited by Mark D'Arcy

BBC: The Credit Crunch

- Bubbles have been driven by the financial services - Bankers riding away for as much as they could - CDOs creation compared to the Enron case to push away things from the books

Posted by mander @ 03:46 PM 7 Comments

You know what happened this weekend??

Cnn: Five more banks failed

Five small regional banks were closed by regulators on Friday evening, pushing 2009's tally so far to 89 institutions. Of the five failures, two were in Illinois, and there was one each in Arizona, Iowa and Missouri.

Posted by mark @ 01:19 PM 1 Comments

Lmao!

BBC: Economy to BOunce Back by 2010

So the article starts off "The British Chambers of Commerce expects the economy to grow 1.1% in 2010, almost double its previous forecast of 0.6% made in June," but then goes on to say "The group expects the UK economy to shrink by 4.3% this year, more than its June forecast of 3.8%. " So let me get this straight, these guys think the UK economy will grow by more in 2010 than they thought three months ago although think it will contract by more this year than they thought 3 years ago. (0.5% more!) I wonder whether the BBC thought about a different title to the article. Let's say, for example, "UK economy to Collapse by more than first thought (which was wasy more than what everyone previously thought)"

Posted by brickormortis @ 01:05 PM 6 Comments

Lol

Daily mail: Brown claim to have saved 500,000 jobs 'is a lie' says Darling

Gordon Brown has been accused of ‘lying’ by Alistair Darling in a vicious feud that threatens to wreck the Government’s attempt to combat the recession.

Posted by mark @ 01:00 PM 6 Comments

Pining for the good old days

Telegraph: Property shows potential, but work required

Start: After a dire 2008, which saw price falls of 16pc, the UK housing market has been one of the more surprising sources of good news on the economic front in the past few months ... Finish: Clearly the price rises over the past month are not the beginning of a return to the booming housing market, which began to unravel with the global downturn. Not until unemployment stabilises are larger increases likely to occur. The high levels of household debt relative to income, prevalent in the UK, are unlikely to foster a booming housing market. Nationwide expects to see larger increases in three to five years. Instead we are in for a period of stabilisation, with some volatility along the way. Following 16pc falls in prices in 2008 alone, that is reason enough for some cheer.

Posted by quiet guy @ 12:18 AM 7 Comments

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Fifth columnists

Spectator: Dave can’t govern unless he destroys the quangos

New Labour created 18,500 posts for political allies in the forms of quangos. All handsomely renumerated. Where possible existing positions were used in a "soviet style purge", particularly for NHS boards, where experienced incumbents were replaced with New Labour political appointments to such an extent that John Maples, NL Health spokesman called for an enquiry as to why so much experience was being turfed out. Certainly puts the tripling of NHS funding against a 5% fall in productivity into perspective. The summary is that these quangos, apart from the expense, form a hostile power group which will reject outright any proposed reforms to the system they benefit from.

Posted by stillthinking @ 05:27 PM 12 Comments

We are bust irrespective of the banks

Institute of Economic Affairs: A Bankruptcy foretold

UK debt in terms of properly measured liabilities was 274% GDP as of Nov 2008 essentially because of pensions. There are intermittent articles on our pension "timebomb" but this is an easy to understand (not economicese) explanation of how stuffed we actually are. The conclusion, "introduction of austerity measures; it will be forced to cut spending, increase taxes, possibly print money, and almost certainly look to break its pensions promises." doesn't bode all that well and explains the reticence gov. ministers show to immigration overhaul. This is particularly gloomy because the noose continues to tighten for the next 25 years i.e. if you are an innocent 39 year old, you get robbed blind.

Posted by stillthinking @ 05:17 PM 3 Comments

Double Chocolate chip cookie

Financial time: The risk of a double dip recession is rising

Over indulgence is a bad thing, so is overconfidence, get ready for another roller coaster ride.

Posted by sam @ 03:44 PM 0 Comments

Some more green shoots

Bbc: Bausch & Lomb set to axe 500 jobs

About 500 jobs are to be lost after contact lenses manufacturer Bausch & Lomb announced plans to move production from West Lothian.

Posted by mark @ 01:16 PM 15 Comments

How stupid can people be?

Bbc: Students warned on flat ad scams

He thought he would have a rented flat waiting for him. But when he arrived in the UK, there was no property and he had been tricked out of the deposit.

Posted by mark @ 01:13 PM 0 Comments

Perhaps we should have a spot the bubble college and send GB to it!

Telegraph: SEC looks at 'fraud college' to track future Madoffs

The Securities and Exchange Commission, which admitted earlier this week that it botched five separate investigations into convicted serial fraudster Madoff, has said a training centre to equip its investigators to uncover frauds could be a sound investment! I think a spot the bubble college for GB, BTL etc would also be a sound investment.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 01:10 PM 1 Comments

Wrong time to buy

FT: Buy to let investors face legal action

“With significantly fewer products left on the market and high interest rates attached to those available, we could potentially have a ticking buy-to-let time bomb on our hands,”

Posted by letthemfall @ 09:35 AM 10 Comments

If the cap fits wear it....

"original article"... But which is which?: Dumb & Dumber

I have to go out for most of today (otherwise i would have waited for a bullish article - stock market jumps for instance?) - but i thought (because im in that kind of mood) I would have some fun with KP and Smiling. Dont take it too seriously guys!!! Actually im a bit confused... can you kp in particular help me out?

Posted by techieman @ 08:49 AM 8 Comments

When it all goes wrong

BBC News: Economic crash in Oregon boomtown

Bend, Oregon was a 21st century American boomtown. Now it's a busttown.

Posted by wylie76 @ 07:59 AM 0 Comments

Were not home and dry yet!!

Telegraph: Debt inquiries to Citizens Advice hit record 9,000 a day

The total number of cases handled in the three months to the end of June was 1.67m, a rise of 17pc on the same period last year. The service, which was launched 70 years ago today, said it was dealing with 9,300 new debt problems and 8,000 new benefit problems every working day. Within the total, Citizens Advice said enquiries about job seekers' allowance had doubled, while redundancy-related problems were up by three-quarters due to rising unemployment. It has also seen a 44pc rise in the number of people with mortgage arrears and a 53pc jump in the number of people struggling to pay their fuel bills. Since the turn of the millennium demand for specialist money advice had escalated, as the credit boom led to rising numbers of people having increasingly complex debt problems.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:35 AM 2 Comments

There's more to being an estate than meets the eye

Rightmove: Property for sale

With the help of PropertyBee or a gift for observation and the benefit of a good memory, you may have noticed the following developments regarding a property on Stonebridge Rd (asking price £420,000 - down from £450,000) in Canterbury: 04 May 2009 * Status changed: from 'New home' to 'New home, Premium Listing' 21 May 2009 * Status changed: from 'New home, Premium Listing' to 'Premium Listing, New home' 23 May 2009 * Status changed: from 'Premium Listing, New home' to 'New home, Premium Listing' 29 June 2009 * Status changed: from 'New home, Premium Listing' to 'Premium Listing, New home' 02 July 2009 * Status changed: from 'Premium Listing, New home' to 'New home, Premium Listing'

Posted by greenshootsandleaves @ 02:16 AM 11 Comments

Friday, September 4, 2009

Tells it like it is

Times: Torrid time to be coming off a tracker

Hundreds of thousands of homeowners coming off tracker deals with rock-bottom interest rates face a sharp rise in monthly repayments despite a series of competitive deals introduced this week. Lenders ‘blacklist’ certain professions. Potential redundancies are not the only job-related cause of rejection. Certain lenders hold “blacklists” of jobs considered at risk. Late last year it emerged that Royal Bank of Scotland would not consider applications from borrowers who took 30 per cent or more of their income from the property market. Other lenders have since followed and cut lending to property professionals. Almost every mainstream lender has also tightened the rules on bonuses and commissions, making it much harder for workers who depend on the extra cash to make up their salary.

Posted by nopensionnohouse @ 11:01 PM 4 Comments

Bears growl

Telegraph: Bears still growl at the Sanctum Sanctorum of the policy elites

House sales have bounced a little after falling 80pc from bubble peak but there is still such an overhang of unsold properties on the market that it would take a total shut-down of the US construction industry for a year to clear the excess. House prices have already fallen 28pc. He expects another 12pc haircut, taking it to 40pc from peak to trough, enough to tip a very large proportion of all US mortgage holders into negative equity.

Posted by apophis @ 10:44 PM 0 Comments

Uh? The American Dream Anybody?

FT.com: Hungry middle classes take up handouts

More than 7m people have signed up for free food stamps since the recession started, bringing the total to more than 35m Americans, or 11.6 per cent of the population. But even those figures do not tell the whole tale.

Posted by novice pete @ 10:42 PM 0 Comments

DoubleDip

FT: G20, equities and a ‘double dip’

At best the stock market could be facing years of range bound trading. At worst another lost decade. It is sobering to think that the FTSE 100 was trading at 6,332 10 years ago – 23 per cent above last night’s close. For example, lower government spending would hit construction, bus and rail and drug and healthcare companies.

Posted by apophis @ 10:12 PM 1 Comments

The Sheeple have voted...

MoneySavingExpert: House price rise predicted by MoneySavers

MoneySavers think the house price crash is over, according to a poll of MoneySavingExpert users. Of the 9000+ readers surveyed, 71% reckon prices will either rise or hold still over the next year. On average, a 0.36% annual rise is expected.

Posted by mrflibble @ 06:37 PM 10 Comments

"The risk of a double dip for U.S. economic growth in 2010 is increasing," said El-Erian, who overse

Yahoo: Double-dip recession risk rising-El-Erian

"The risk of a double dip for U.S. economic growth in 2010 is increasing," said El-Erian, who oversees $850 billion in assets for Pacific Investment Management Co

Posted by mark @ 04:38 PM 2 Comments

Gold resistance looks to be pushed higher in the coming few months

Fleet Street Invest: Gold Price to Stay Above $1,000 This Time Around

As the gold price stretches nearer to $1000 Steve Sjuggerud looks at the possible scenario of it gaining further ground and extending its Bull run. In his own words "We could be on the brink of a big move in the price of gold... the next leg up in the gold bull market."

Posted by william @ 04:33 PM 2 Comments

They think it's all over?

Telegraph: US economy has lost almost 7m jobs since recession began, fresh figures show

Unemployment in America jumped to the highest level in more than a quarter of a century last month, bringing to almost 7 million the number of jobs lost since the recession began.

Posted by lloyd @ 03:17 PM 0 Comments

Stop smiling

BBC: US jobless rate at 26-year high

"US employers cut 216,000 jobs in August, pushing the unemployment rate up to 9.7%, a 26-year high, official figures show."

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 02:05 PM 5 Comments

Is this a hint of a 40,000 reduction in staff coming? remember the rumours?

Daily mail: Backtrack on banking: Why Lloyds needs to be smaller, by the Chancellor who gave it a £17bn bailout

The Chancellor last night suggested that he wanted to slim it down to reduce its dominance after admitting that the financial sector needs much more competition.

Posted by mark @ 02:02 PM 0 Comments

Wwwwwwwwwww

Reuters: Trichet points to possible double-dip recession in Europe

Of course, that’s not exactly what the European Central Bank president said. But how else are we to interpret his repeated references to a “bumpy road” ahead, and his comment that we are likely to see quarters with positive growth and other quarters with “less flattering” figures? All this was illustrated with a hand gesture that drew a W (or a corrugated iron washboard) rather than a V or a U.

Posted by mark @ 01:55 PM 3 Comments

What about those people whose benefits have finished? are they counted?

Cnn: Unemployment jumps to a 26-year high of 9.7%

Employers trimmed fewer jobs in August than they did the prior month, but the unemployment rate jumped to a 26-year high, the government reported Friday.

Posted by mark @ 01:52 PM 3 Comments

Abbey warns stamp duty deadline is approaching

This is the reality of the the recession not the BS they have you believe

Cnn: Michigan prison closure rattles small-town economy

As Michigan's economy worsened last year, Michael Hester decided it was time to leave the private sector to work in the prison system, figuring a state job as a corrections officer would be more stable. "I left a better paying job thinking I'd have better security," he said. "I guessed wrong."

Posted by mark @ 01:20 PM 0 Comments

Maths couple millionaires quit buy to let market

Telegraph: Telegraph

A couple who quit teaching maths to make a fortune in the buy-to-let business have decided to cash in their 700 home property portfolio.

Posted by harry @ 12:06 PM 24 Comments

Optimism everywhere

BBC News: Jobs boost with new Mini models

even the carmakers are waking up and smelling the coffee

Posted by smiling @ 11:28 AM 3 Comments

Sales speeding along

BBC News: Scrappage scheme lifts car sales

Be honest- hands up the doubters of scrappage! Chitty-chitty bang bang!

Posted by smiling @ 11:25 AM 6 Comments

Hitting the G-spot

Bloomberg: Stocks, Bonds in ‘Sweet Spot’ as G-20 Avoids Exit

Let the music play.... Economic policy makers are signaling they plan to leave emergency stimulus in place even as the global economy pulls out of recession, delivering what Credit Suisse Group AG and Bank of America Corp. call a “sweet spot” for financial markets.

Posted by smiling @ 11:21 AM 4 Comments

Keep 'em low

Bloomberg: Trichet Says ECB May Not Lift Rates When Exiting Other Measures

borrowers to continue binging on low rates for a while yet according to ECB. Quick reminder of the scores on the doors... USA - Zero, UK, Practically Zero, Euro, A whole point above zero!

Posted by smiling @ 11:17 AM 0 Comments

Ermm, is the FSA prosecuting someone then ... ?

ThisIsMoney: Abbey owns up to mortgage fraud

The title calls it 'malpractice', but that's simply weasel-wording for 'fraud'. Isn't that usually a criminal offence?

Posted by paul @ 11:10 AM 9 Comments

Crash- Wot you on about?

Reuters: G20 to pledge stimulus until economic recovery certain

Can a bear wait another 5 years?

Posted by smiling @ 11:04 AM 1 Comments

Fed up?

Reuters: Fed's Fisher sees near-term strength for economy

The Fed certaintly think thing's are looking up!

Posted by smiling @ 10:53 AM 0 Comments

The only way is up!

Reuters: Service sector on the mend, jobless claims fall

Who missed the boat baby?

Posted by smiling @ 10:51 AM 2 Comments

Sounds like interest rate will be on the way up very soon...

Yahoo: Risk of eurozone deflation has gone: ECB economist

The risk of deflation in the 16-nation eurozone has disappeared, the European Central Bank's chief economist Juergen Stark said on Friday.

Posted by mark @ 10:01 AM 9 Comments

The property market is improving steadily, but trading up is proving tricky for many buyers.

Times: Moving house is hard to do

Looks like market is picking up, better get on the boat!!

Posted by kp @ 09:23 AM 19 Comments

The 43-year-old former printing press operator is among the more than 1.3 million Americans whose un

Cnbc.com: Next Hit for Jobless: Losing Unemployment Benefits

Jobless since January, Donald Money has already moved in with his elderly parents, stopped going to the movies and started using less of his prescription medication so it will last longer.

Posted by chris @ 12:35 AM 0 Comments

Currency crisis could be upon us!!

BLOOMBERG: JIM ROGERS

The global imbalances remain and the collapse of the US$ could be upon us. Gold has blown off already in anticipation of a "dollar debacle". The final stages of the collapse of empire america could be here now in the ugliest month of all -September. The pound could sink with it aswell. That fool Gordon Brown would be mainly to blame.

Posted by david simmonds @ 12:13 AM 0 Comments

Thursday, September 3, 2009

In a challenge to London, Asian states invited to store bullion closer to home

MarketWatch: Hong Kong recalls gold reserves, touts high-security vault

Hong Kong is pulling all its physical gold holdings from depositories in London, transferring them to a high-security depository newly built at the city's airport, in a move that won praise from local traders Thursday. The facility, industry professionals said, would support Hong Kong's emergence as a Swiss-style trading hub for bullion and would lessen London's status as a key settlement-and-storage center.

Posted by devo @ 10:41 PM 18 Comments

Call this a recovery?

Spiked Online: Call this a recovery?

The New Labour government’s authority and credibility may appear to be in ruins on every front from Afghanistan and Megrahi to expenses and education. But never fear, prime minister Gordon Brown has a cunning plan for a successful fightback. He is apparently planning to ‘seize back the political agenda with a new focus on the economy’, confidently pinning his hopes of victory in next year’s General Election on evidence of a recovery. As one headline puts it, ‘Economy is on the mend, says Brown, and we did it’.So, never mind that Brown was Tony Blair’s chancellor through the decade that stored up the problems which exploded in the credit crunch.

Posted by c'mon correction @ 09:50 PM 2 Comments

"We have sound fundamentals"

SKY: Britain 'To Be Slowest Out Of Recession'

"Britain will trail behind other major economies in coming out of recession, a prominent international think tank has warned. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said the UK economy would shrink by 4.7% this year". And the French economy is expected to contract by 2.1% - down from the 3% the OECD expected three months ago. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank said on Thursday it was keeping its interest rate at an historic low of 1%.

Posted by alan @ 08:30 PM 0 Comments

Garbage bonds repackaged into AAA CDO's

Bloomberg: Barclays Said to Repackage Top-Rated Bonds From Downgraded CDO

Banks are turning downgraded securities into new investments with top credit ratings, seeking to create more valuable debt to sell or to restructure investors’ holdings. “Critics of this practice have argued that it appears to be the creation of something from nothing -- in effect ‘alchemy,’” Moody’s analyst Leonid Mogunov wrote in an August report. “Such repackaging can in fact produce at least one class of notes more creditworthy than the underlying CLO tranche"

Posted by mrb @ 07:08 PM 5 Comments

Beyond satire

Daily Express: The day we gave up living on easy credit

"MORE good news: not only are house prices rising, but the nation has finally come to its senses and stopped living off its credit cards." Seeing as mortgage debt is about 85% of all household debt, isn't this missing the point? Wasn't it only easy credit that inflated the house price bubble in the first place? I give up.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 04:25 PM 8 Comments

Here we go!

NAEA: Homes for sale increased in August

The number of homes for sale increased for the first time in four months during August despite the housing market suffering its traditional seasonal slowdown.

Posted by rob @ 02:14 PM 3 Comments

Brown 'willing to take pay cut'

BBC News: Brown 'willing to take pay cut'

I'd suggest he take a £194,250 pay cut.

Posted by pooodle2 @ 01:40 PM 5 Comments

More false dichotemy from Analtoe

Times: Shrink the City and you’ll pay a heavy price

With the OECD and others now showing Britain as the worst off of all G7 - Analtoe must love to read his musings of jsut two weeks ago "This means that the recovery will be stronger than generally expected in America and possibly in Britain, while in continental Europe and possibly Japan the depth of the recession will produce longer-term structural problems that limit growth for several years ahead." as written in http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article6807255.ece This "article" seeks to pose to the reader a choice: leave the banks alone or face pre-1980s Britain with a selection of emotive images designed to cloud the issues. If Britain is really so innovative, then it ought to be easy to work out a system that ensures we don't end up here again.

Posted by growler @ 01:23 PM 18 Comments

Adapt or scrap HIPs

HIP-Consultant.co.uk: Will Home Information Packs (HIPs) be ‘scrapped’?

Pretty extensive article discussing the pros and cons of the Home Information Pack. Certainly raises some valid point especially if the Tories do get in. Could scrapping HIPs actually hinder the property market?

Posted by kaz @ 12:21 PM 9 Comments

Can Broon and Labour look more out of touch?

Telegraph: UK economic outlook deteriorates: OECD forecasts

More news on just how far away form reality our leaders are, and how desparate they are to get all of Europe to drag us out of recession. Whilst simultaneously retreating from restructing our institutions so we don't make the same moves in 10 years from now. Time to Go, Gordon

Posted by growler @ 11:37 AM 0 Comments

Is it just me, or are AD & GB starting to sound really desperate and scared in their tones?

Guardian: Darling warns of danger in withdrawing stimulus packages too soon

Alistair Darling has warned that the world could be dragged into a double-dip recession if other governments stop stimulating their economies. Speaking before this week's meeting of G20 finance ministers, the chancellor said he would oppose moves by France and Germany to begin "exit strategies".

Posted by flintster1994 @ 11:01 AM 17 Comments

Bovis Homes unveils 60 mln stg placing for land buys

Reuters: Bovis Homes unveils 60 mln stg placing for land buys

British housebuilder Bovis Homes (BVS.L) unveiled a placing to raise 60 million pounds ($97.91 million) on Thursday to take advantage of opportunities in the residential land market. Wow!!!

Posted by kp @ 09:37 AM 0 Comments

But you paid in all your life...

Guardian: Expat pension challenge goes to European court

The future of pensions and GB's vision of Britain. He wants you to holdiday here, never travel on those flying global warmers and now your penalized for retiring abroad. Wonder what their excuse will be when I retire in 35 yrs time. BTW anyone asking for a link to HPC - just think what its like now extrapolate 25 yrs then decide if you want to buy a house here.

Posted by matt_the_hat @ 07:04 AM 2 Comments

No new world order here... carry on

Times online: NM Rothschild pitches motorway privatisation plan

A radical plan to raise £100 billion by privatising the motorway network has been presented to the three main political parties by NM Rothschild, the influential investment bank. Sell us all into slavery!

Posted by matt_the_hat @ 06:46 AM 27 Comments

Oh My Fscking God

Times: WIlsons to sell up entire property portfolio

Two former maths teachers who became landlords and made a fortune with a buy-to-let empire are to retire from the business, putting their 700 homes up for sale in one go. Fergus and Judith Wilson, 793rd on The Sunday Times Rich List this year with a combined value of £70 million, have decided to call it a day after almost 20 years of property investing. At their peak they owned about 900 houses but their portfolio has been badly hit by the downturn, falling from an estimated value of £180 million early last year. They have now decided to put the whole lot on the market to take advantage of a recent rise in house prices in Ashford, Kent

Posted by little professor @ 01:01 AM 57 Comments

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Quite a shortfall.

The Times: Gordon Brown’s $1 trillion global rescue package unravels

Officials admit that almost $200 billion pledged in credit facilities for the International Monetary Fund has yet to materialise.

Posted by devo @ 11:49 PM 3 Comments

And another one down and another one down ... another one bites the dust!

Independent: 'Secret millionaire' property develop declared bankrupt

'The Ballad of The Failed Property Developer' proved a recurring and popular chart topper throughout 2009 and 2010.

Posted by paul @ 10:28 PM 7 Comments

UK Buy to Let Market Expected to Recover Soon

E1 News: ARLA Reports a Decrease in the Number of Reluctant Landlords

The results of the research undertaken by the Association of Residential Lettings Agents (ARLA), which were published on August 27th, suggest that the number of so-called “reluctant landlords” on London residential property market has shrunk significantly as consumer confidence started to return.

Posted by anna smith @ 08:23 PM 0 Comments

Worrying sentiment!

Money Saving Expert: Is the house price crash over?

MoneySavers expect an average house price increase of 0.4% this year and the consensus is for a rise. 9,321 voted.

Posted by ab @ 07:10 PM 15 Comments

Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, the VIX, has shot up this week

Cnn: Be afraid. Be sort of, sort of afraid

But there were some mentions of the likely collapse of Chicago-based condominium lender Corus Bankshares (CORS) as helping to spark the sell-off. Concerns about specialty lender CIT Group (CIT, Fortune 500) deferring an interest payment also seemed to rattle investors.

Posted by mark @ 07:00 PM 0 Comments

Stocks and houses to fall further

The Fleet Street Letter: UK property prices to get cut in half.

More advertorial for your amusement from a bunch of cowboys? For what it's worth, I actually believe them.

Posted by will @ 07:00 PM 2 Comments

How do we pay for this 'sugar rush'?

Variant Perception: Taxing Problems and a Gilt-y Solution?

A serious analysis of the UK government's options to fund itself. "Tax receipts in several countries are facing headwinds from job losses and structural changes to their economies. The new world of tougher-to-obtain and less abundant credit will impact the composition of tax revenues, and in many cases will reduce the overall tax-take. These effects will persist long after monetary stimuli have provided their temporary ‘sugar rush’. We look at the UK as a prominent example of an economy with potentially many tough years ahead of it."

Posted by mountain goat @ 06:08 PM 4 Comments

More from our 'high quality loan book'

Bloomberg: Northern Rock’s Mortgage Arrears Soar by 12x

Arrears on Northern Rock mortgages have increased by 12 times during the credit crisis. Long-term arrears on NR's mortgage-backed bonds have risen to 4.7%, from 0.4% in September 2007, S&P said. Northern Rock mortgages may have higher arrears than average because of their elevated loan-to-value ratios and the company’s policy of lending to poorer customers, S&P said. Northern Rock's repossession rates more than doubled from 0.4% to 0.9%, while the average loss on properties repossessed by the company rose to £26,058.

Posted by little professor @ 05:02 PM 5 Comments

Insider buying indicates stocks are about to fall

Fleet Street Invest: What the Insiders are Telling us about the Market Rally

Insider buying indicates stocks are about to fall - use gold, currencies and cash to hedge...

Posted by warren @ 04:40 PM 0 Comments

HSBC, Woolwich and C&G cut rates, but best deals are reserved for borrowers with big deposits

Guardian: Original News

HSBC, Woolwich and C&G cut rates, but best deals are reserved for borrowers with big deposits. Wonderful News!! We need rates lower so that bankruptcies are avoided. Great work, HSBC!!

Posted by kp @ 03:19 PM 4 Comments

Blackpool house price boom

Blackpool Gazetter: Blackpool house price boom

THE Fylde coast's property slump could be over. New figures show prices have rocketed by their biggest amount in five years and some estate agents are so "rushed off their feet" they are having to take on extra staff to cope with demand. Wow, 5.3% rise not bad!! Looks like my investment is in the money already.

Posted by kp @ 02:14 PM 6 Comments

HSBC deal raises hopes of mortgage price war

Times online: Original news

Britain's biggest bank lays down the gaunlet to rival lenders with a new discounted deal at 1.99 per cent . Wooohoo- bring on the house price bull run.

Posted by kp @ 01:01 PM 23 Comments

Maybe another blow for the recovery?

Money week: Three signs that stocks are heading for a fall

After a big down day on Monday, stock markets took an even bigger hit yesterday. The Dow was down some 185 points, while the S&P 500 fell below 1,000. It was some of the nastiest action we've seen since early July, which is odd as only last week we were being told that the economic crisis has 'ended'

Posted by happy mondays @ 12:50 PM 6 Comments

Foundamentals

Telegraph: Banks 'hoarding credit' as lending falls a record £8.4bn

No, Dear Sir, we, the proud and prudent British Banks, do NOT believe in value Creation. We are a bunch of cult fanatics of value Inflation. It is completely unacceptable for us to take so long to get our bonus from good old value creation. That is why we are happy to lend mortgages to inflate house price. But companies, the backbone of real economy, well, we trust they shall burn and fry. Oh, BTW, we are not concerned about the consequence, because when we suck this country dry, we will be all retiring in the sun in comfort with taxpayer’ money. To show our gratitude, here is my middle finger.

Posted by peter_2008 @ 12:47 PM 0 Comments

Looks like it is over...

Cnn: Worldwide worry: Is the rally over?

Global stock markets dragged lower amid concerns that stocks are due for a correction. *****Hold onto your pensions, its going to be painful*******

Posted by mark @ 12:46 PM 0 Comments

Construction still shrinking

Times Online: UK construction shrinks for 18th month in a row

Britain's construction industry contracted for the eighteenth month in a row during in August and is now being hit by a dearth of civil engineering orders. The monthly survey by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply (CIPS), which measures activity in the construction sector, showed a level of 47.7 in August, indicating that the sector had shrunk again, although it fell at the slowest pace for 18 months. The index has risen from 47 in July.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 11:06 AM 6 Comments

Please leave us with at least one industry

Times online: Mayor to lobby EU on hedge fund crackdown

Europe or banking 'industry' - EU wants to regulate hedge funds - oh dear

Posted by matt_the_hat @ 11:00 AM 15 Comments

This is just the start !!!!

Press and Journal: Counting cost of high risk and aggressive lending

Think this story may have broke a week or two ago but still worth a read......

Posted by johnnyp @ 09:41 AM 3 Comments

Cattles off to the slaughter house

Guardian: Doorstep lender's staff face job losses

"Systemic failure to apply bad debt provisioning policy". Well there's a surprise. No doubt the FSA will be along to investigate sooner or later or much later. Can anyone think of any other 'property investors' who may have underestimated the size of the bubble they created?

Posted by paul @ 08:53 AM 4 Comments

Prudence to Threaten the UK Economy

The Independent: Rush to pay off debts threatens UK's recovery

"The fragile recovery in the economy, still not officially confirmed, could be damaged by a return to thrift by households". How can people be so foolish, they shouldn't save and reduce their debts, they should go out and spend money they don't have on stuff they don't need - that will make all the problems go away.

Posted by wyldman100 @ 02:11 AM 1 Comments

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

The painful Truth

Timesonline: Worst of slump yet to come, says economist

To quote a comment - Miles Stapleton wrote: "She is baffled that the Government has used billions of pounds of public money to rescue the banks without insisting on any change in behaviour." Aren't we all ! ...Why is no-one asking this question where it matters, in parliament????

Posted by bystander @ 03:31 PM 23 Comments

Reluctant landlords fall

MONEYFACTS: Reluctant landlords fall

The number of reluctant landlords appears to be falling as confidence in the property market continues to show signs of a meaningful upturn. Reluctant landlords have flooded the market but the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA) has reported that 80 per cent of its members’ offices have seen property rented out rather than sold.

Posted by rob @ 01:49 PM 2 Comments

House price falls coming soon

ADVFN: UK Property to halve between now and July 29th 2010

ADVFN financial website beleives prices to halve in the next 6 months, with lots to back it up. "UK houses are still massively unaffordable" Well we knew that didn't we? READ THIS BEFORE YOU BUY.

Posted by will @ 10:48 AM 27 Comments

It's finally gone negative

Bank of England: Lending to individuals, July '09

After showing a graph that seemed strangely reluctant to go negative (BoE database code LPMVTUV) we finally have a nett contraction in debt..

Posted by uncle tom @ 10:36 AM 0 Comments

The Great Deleveraging/Debt Deflation continues ...

BBC: Decline in UK personal debt level

"The total amount of personal debt in the UK has fallen for the first time since records began in 1993, the Bank of England has said. Personal borrowing fell by £600m in July, taking the total owed by individuals down to £1.457 trillion. There was a drop in both mortgage debt and other forms of borrowing such as bank loans." but then again there's always the VI spin "The number of mortgages approved in July rose again to 50,123, suggesting property sales will continue to rise." promptly countered with this "Total net lending to individuals fell by £0.6bn in July, showing a net repayment for the first time in the series," the Bank said.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:30 AM 12 Comments

..But we're out of Recession, aren't we?

London Standard: Pound falls as manufacturing dips unexpectedly

"The pound and the Footsie fell today after an unexpected fall in the UK's manufacturing activity in August was shown in the latest figures from the purchasing managers' index. Employers cut jobs and the rate of new business slowed, leading to a drop in the headline index".

Posted by alan @ 10:26 AM 15 Comments

As sales and income taxes decline, 9 of 10 cities are forced to cut spending.

Cnn: Strapped cities lay off workers, cancel projects

Future looks grim with property taxes expected to drop in 2010 and 2011.

Posted by mark @ 10:05 AM 0 Comments

What goes up !

Guardian: House prices can't defy gravity for ever

Nationwide says house prices rose 1.6% last month. All we can hope for now is a 'double dip' property recession

Posted by happy mondays @ 09:05 AM 3 Comments

Prop up the house of cards at all costs.

Timesonline: Chinese shares plunge amid fears of default

Share prices in Shanghai slumped by 7 per cent yesterday amid fears that the “China effect”, which has helped to stoke growing global economic confidence in the past six months, is about to fizzle out. The stampede out of shares came amid reports that the authorities in Beijing may be planning to protect state-run companies from their trading mistakes by allowing certain companies to default on derivative contracts struck for oil, coal and other commodities.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 08:29 AM 0 Comments

"and that it was a Labour Government that navigated the choppy waters." Stop, my sides....

Timesonline: The economy is over the worst and Labour did it, says Gordon Brown

Gordon Brown is hoping to seize back the political agenda with a new focus on the economy. The Prime Minister, whose summer break has been overshadowed by deaths in Afghanistan and the release of the Lockerbie bomber, is expected to try to convince voters that the British economy is through the worst — and that it was a Labour Government that navigated the choppy waters.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 08:17 AM 31 Comments

UK Property Firms' Stock Values Decline

E1 News: Stocks of UK Property Firms Fall

According to the latest BBC report, British stocks have been witnessing declines for 2 days in a row with major financial and property companies at the top of the list. The decreases might well have been caused by the fact that the American list of problem banks has expanded significantly.

Posted by james cornell @ 06:05 AM 0 Comments

UK Estate Agents Predict Land Price Increases

E1 News: World Land Prices to Rise Soon – Knight Frank

According to one of the latest statements made by a UK-based estate agency, Knight Frank, farmland values across the world are to experience rises in the near future. Such countries as Australia, Canada and Africa in particular already witness an increased demand from land investors, specialists say.

Posted by james cornell @ 04:02 AM 1 Comments

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