Friday, September 25, 2009

W Shaped Recovery Equals More Falls To Come

Investors are right to be worried – we’re heading for a correction

But now that valuations are looking a little bit peaky in some of the more economically-sensitive stocks, many investors aren't feeling quite as gung-ho. "The market is very susceptible to anything that puts into question the recovery," as Barry Lorenzo of US investment bank Kaufman Brothers told Marketwatch. And it seems the latest US housing data was just the thing to knock the bulls off their stride...

Posted by sybil13 @ 06:37 PM (1384 views)
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13 thoughts on “W Shaped Recovery Equals More Falls To Come

  • ‘W’ shaped recovery?

    ‘L’ shaped more like.

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  • Paul how can it be an L shaped recovery with the massive rises from March in the stock market? Surely we will either get a W or square root shaped recovery???? If I am mistaken please explain how.

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  • Peter Schiff’s latest video blog has some observations about the recent US home sales data.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4p1sbWO_8oc (up until 02:05)

    After a few words about the dollar index and gold price moves, Schiff makes some observations about the US homes sales. Basically, a disproportionate chunk of the sales were at the low end of the market i.e. homes purchased with assistance from the US government in the form of an $8000 credit and finance by the FHA. Sales in the higher end of the market are still falling. If you discount the artificially cheap loans provided by the US government, then the sales figures are actually much worse!

    I am doubtful about Moneyweek’s suggestion that this may be a good time to be property in America. The worst has yet to happen across the pond.

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  • @bystander

    A stockmarket rise doth not a recovery make.

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  • Definitely L. All the leading indicators point to L for the UK, US and Eurozone.

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  • hey bystander. Devo is right and you are too. The stockmarket isnt the economy, so Devos point is valid. Having said that the stockmarket normally discounts what is going to happen (its a lead indicator) . Sometimes the market overdoes it one way or the other, so there is a bungee effect. What is happening now is that you could say the stockmarket is forecasting an increase in growth for those companies and therefore the country as a whole… OR you could say that the discount previously was forecasting some sort of Armageddon and since the tools have been used to avert that its natural that we should move back up (the bungee was too stretched and therefore there has been a violent move back). Personally im on the 2nd side – as we discussed the risk (in my view) is on the long side.

    Now having said all that i wouldnt be surprised to see one more swing high, to (try to) suck out the last of the bears. I said recently that the ideal would be a stuttering move with a downward bias before a final swing up. We have had most if not all of that stuttering down move.

    Of course the final swing up scenario might not occur. As for support ftse thats 5050 (ironic number!). In other words if we breach that(convincingly) its more likely we will have seen the high for 2009. “convincingly” and “likely” are the subject terms. Thats my general opinion – as for timing it – again thats where you earn your money.

    as we discussed in general for anyone that doesnt do this kind of “work” i would say stay safe and keep your money in a mix of interest bearing safe options (i.e. cash) and also spread it into other currencies. Re the currencies again at the moment i am a fan of the $ against the £, basically because the Euro looks toppy against the greenback.

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  • QG – Schiff has going on about the foreigners “not showing up” for years. He then says one day they wont show up. He’s probably right but “one day” we will all be dead! Timing is the issue. Dont get me wrong i like Schiff, but just dont agree with him re the dollar – at least for a while, or until the charts show me when we are nearer or at that “one day”

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  • An ‘L’ shaped trend is not a recovery its a stabilisation.

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  • @techieman

    Sorry, I didn’t get a chance to write back to you earlier on the other discussion branch. Nicolle Elliot is a member of the STA and has given talks about Itchimoko too in the past. They have a range of “celebs” talking there and I find it very informative.

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  • hey crash – the only thing i would say is that there is a chance of paralysis by analysis in all these methods. Thats why personally i try to use a few tools but apply them to quite a few markets. You should have a knowledge of most things in general – not every single one though in depth. Has anyone mentioned jurix? Good luck and hope you chose the right tool at the right time. As i always say everything works….. until it doesnt. The trick is trying to suss out when it doesnt have that good of a chance of working. You can see the kind of analysis i favour in the whitney thread on the 18th Sept re cable.

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  • There was money to be made on the short side this week, but agree with Techie that a final ramp up seems before valuation and recovery concerns start to push shares down towards value – and doesn’t everything overshoot, T’s bungie idea

    Momentum in the markets has weakened alot and it is difficult to think what further rabbits can be conjured to drive things liquidity rally higher. I sense a buy the dips psychology developing which is a shift from the buy at all costs through late summer, but it is still something to watch. Particualrly thinking that a significant down of 10/15% would bring a lot of money into the markets for one last hurrah.

    Anyway attached link to very worthwhile listen from Danielle Park. Why is the us media more switched on to discussing things at a higher degree of sophistication, than the house prices up in July stuff our media churn out?

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/danielle-park-on-overbought-overvalued-markets/

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  • b/w 2 words. She’s right.

    Then again i would say that wouldnt i!! As i said the risk is on the long side. In march as soon as 3950 was breached the risk was on the short side. It was 50/50 at 4520 and now i would say the risk is getting very top heavy on the upside. Overbought – i like this quote:

    “i have a hard time predicting insanity” ….

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