Tuesday, September 29, 2009

So much for the Autumn bouce

Mortgage deals record first fall in 10 months

It's pretty simple really, and the B of E agree: "Today's Bank of England data showed that total mortgage lending climbed to a 6-month high of £1.0 billion in August. They also revealed that consumers paid down unsecured debt at the fastest rate since records began in 1993 as concerns about the economy and job losses continued to weigh heavily. " Unless people see some kind of improvement with the Exchange Rate, Economy or Unemployment - which we all know is not about to happen for many, many months - people will walk away from property commitments unless they have to.

Posted by growler @ 01:26 PM (1051 views)
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5 thoughts on “So much for the Autumn bouce

  • The reporting of positive news (depending on which way you are inclined) has become a barren land of late on this site. Just a trickle of traffic on the meagre grains that are tossed in from time to time, but overall, not much for the “Crashers and Doomers” to get their teeth into. Does this mean that HPC is on its last legs?
    Many of the great commentators, S2r1, Flash and Techie and many more seem to have gone into hibernation, as does the HPC itself. Mr Smug suggests that many may have done a “Darling” and given up the ghost for good.

    Maybe it’s time to get over it, accept life as it is and get on with it!

    The Writer Sidonie Colette once so charmingly said

    “What a wonderful life I’ve had! I only wish I’d realized it sooner”.

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  • I think most people in the UK have realised that the talk of a recovery is just that – talk. Therefore the need to pursuade people must fall since they’re already pursuaded.

    My view is that this HPC is playing out to plan. You get a sharp correction, the first signs of “improvements” and people who didn’t want to belive it in the first place come back into the market – trying to convince others in an attempt to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    The problem is that houses are simply not affordable without unnatural levels of personal debt compared to history. Average salaries are simply not able to support average house prices without distinctly un-average loans.

    This has to change either by (1) increased salary (2) falling house prices or (3) un-average loans or government support.

    (1) is not going to happen. (3) can’t happen for ever – thus the answer will be (2) when the system finally settles.

    Factors like Japan (2nd largest economy) shrinking, and other countries in Europe looking to repair their domestic economies means that discretionary purchases (whatever the sector) will fall.

    The car srappage scheme shows that unless you have “un-average” support, the market will fall. In Germany, they see the reductions in marekt post support will be a historic fall.

    We simply have too much capacity. People only bought what they did because they were given what they didn’t have: real money

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  • Growler, you speak some truth in your post, any real corrections will only take place once the hype and hysteria has gone and the monthly graphs are no longer headline news. This may take some time to filter through.

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  • krustyatemyhamster says:

    @1 flashman/smuggers

    “S2r1, Flash and Techie”


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