Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Recovery Built on Unstable Foundations

Auctions point to falls in house prices

You have to register to read this one but essentially the article is saying that the average auction price is 30% down on what could be achieved through an estate agent, but what I am not sure about is whether that means the property is down 40 - 50% given that the sold value via an EA is probably down 15% from peak or more. Its not really news that property needs to be down 30% from peak in order to sell in todays market, I am of the understanding lenders are valuing 30% below peak and up to 40% for remortgages. What we need is for the market to stop being in denial of what is stopping property from selling (average sales per agent currently 1 or less per month) and adjust to TODAYS market and stop thinking that next year or the year after property is going to go back up to 2007 values!

Posted by sybil13 @ 11:59 PM (950 views)
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8 thoughts on “Recovery Built on Unstable Foundations

  • I read it that auction prices are a leading indicator, so it’s the difference between them and the estate agents sales at any given point in time which is important, not whether it’s off peak prices or not.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Sybil “I am of the understanding lenders are valuing 30% below peak and up to 40% for remortgage”

    Where does that come from? If true, it would be most heartening!!

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  • Never read an article that says property is being valued 30% under peak but there is an article that mentioned 40% for remortgages. My assumption has been made on the fact that the articles speak of 21% falls and valuations coming in 10% lower than offer . It would be good to see an article that SPELLS IT OUT….instead of like the recent Rightmove HPI saying they are advising sellers to accept a lower cash offer rather than wait for a higher offer from someone who needs a mortgage. EA’s must know the lender will not give a value anywhere near peak yet asking prices are peak and beyond!
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article6077635.ece?token=null&offset=0&page=1
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/blog/2009/jul/24/property-survey-house-prices
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8191007.stm
    http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=191611&d=403&h=401&f=402
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article6463460.ece

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  • To me, yesterday was a pivotal point this downturn. Yesterday had many pointers and indicators that things will deteriorate no more unless there is a monumental catastrophic economic turn, and in that unlikely event, we will all be fecked anyway. Today I will begin preparing offers on 3 properties that I have had my eye on and see what develops. Today is the beginning of my new contented life – hopefully without rent and most definitely without mortgage. I’m fed up with this battle….I want peace……. THANKYOU AND GOODBYE (_8(|)

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  • “Aided by Zoopla, the property website, Fathom calculated its auction price index discount by matching the properties sold at auction with land registry data for the same home showing its price in a previous sale. They calculate the discount as the difference between the price achieved at auction and an expected price, based on uprating the previous sales price using national house price indicators.

    That auction prices in August were 30 per cent below what the same property might have been expected to achieve on the basis of overall house price inflation “provides a clear contrary signal to the nascent recovery in house prices evident in the more conventional house price measures”, Mr Gabay said. ”

    V telling

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  • Good luck BB. Please do visit now and again.

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  • Ah. Capitulation….always a bearish sign. 😀

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Sybil, that’s a good bunch of articles. Ta muchly.

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