Thursday, September 3, 2009

Oh My Fscking God

WIlsons to sell up entire property portfolio

Two former maths teachers who became landlords and made a fortune with a buy-to-let empire are to retire from the business, putting their 700 homes up for sale in one go. Fergus and Judith Wilson, 793rd on The Sunday Times Rich List this year with a combined value of £70 million, have decided to call it a day after almost 20 years of property investing. At their peak they owned about 900 houses but their portfolio has been badly hit by the downturn, falling from an estimated value of £180 million early last year. They have now decided to put the whole lot on the market to take advantage of a recent rise in house prices in Ashford, Kent

Posted by little professor @ 01:01 AM (3686 views)
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57 thoughts on “Oh My Fscking God

  • At the risk of pointing out the obvious, aren’t they foolish to try to dump it all at once? Wouldn’t they be better off drip-feeding properties into the market?

    Excellent sign for further house price falls though.

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  • They are maths teachers, they are scared! Why? Work it out. At the height of the boom they had a net worth of 180 million, this is now 70 million. The market has dropped an estimated 20% from peak. So they will have been quite well leveraged. From the figures one can estimate that they must have been leveraged to 60% (i.e. there net worth of 180 million was the other 40% and 60% owned by the bank). Now they are worth only 70 million. The outstanding debts to the bank will not have changed very much if at all (they may be mainly interest only). So if they have lost just over half their net worth, they must now be leveraged somewhere about 80-85%. A further decline of 15-20% WILL wipe them out completely and send them to bankruptsy. They know this, so they are trying to salvage a few million by getting rid of the portfolio ASAP. These figures I use are consistent with their loss of net worth (if they owned 100% with no debt they would be just 20% down, i.e. worth something like 140 million) if they were originally leveraged to 80% or more they would already be gone. Believe me these property entrepreneurs are afraid, very very afraid. They over-streached and now are looking disaster in the eye. And remember the 180 million net worth was at the height of the boom, and their portfolio could have been seriously overvalued and their real leverage higher. In which case 70 million might be an optomistic figure as to what they are worth. And the 70 million might be based on asking prices rather than what they will actually get…..these guys have trouble, I really think they are. They would not be liquidising all in one go if they did not….as Drewster says – it would be better to drip feed out (especially since the housing market is now “recovering”…..

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  • I can never resist joining in a Fergus and Judith thread! Apologies if I’m repeating myself.

    If I remember rightly the point about them having painted themselves into a corner was raised on here at least 4 years or so ago, when they were all over the press smuggly banging on about how clever they were. They’ve bought all those hundreds of properties in the same area (Ashford in Kent) and so trying to sell the whole lot will only crash the local market. But on the other hand they’ve got too many properties to drip feed them because that would take them years to complete. I bet they’re having some sleepless nights though, desperately hoping they can offload this lot before the next downturn in the market.

    From 4wallsandaceiling.com in Dec 2007 – “He has been approached four times by wealthy Russian investors over the past year keen to buy his entire portfolio of properties. So far he hasn’t sold out, but says he will if the price is right – but that price is likely to be north of £250m.” Ha, ha!

    Anyone remember Fergus claiming that property prices will double every seven years?

    Last October Fergus was promising not to flood the market –
    http://www.kentnews.co.uk/kent-news/We-will-not-flood-market-vows-millionaire-landlord-newsinkent17025.aspx

    I would love to see these two in a bankruptcy court.

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  • honest valuer says:

    I have mentioned the Wilsons on here several times before. They have ALWAYS been 85% geared all the way up by continually remortgaging and repurchasing. Their net worth has never been any where near 170million and I would wager that they are already well under water. Fergus is a Robert Maxwell type character and has probably kept the banks at bay with his usual bluster. I am convinced he will come out of this with nothing – there is no way the market in Ashford could soak up this kind of supply – I recall Mrs. W has even mentioned this before when she hinted that the banks would never repossess their properties because the market would be flooded.

    Anyway very good news for HPC, FTB’s and renters ( and even estate agents, valuers and solicitors!)

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  • I can’t add anything to the excellent points made above, so I’m just going to say Mwuahahahahahahahahahaha instead.

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  • So in another 10 years time they may have sold the last one.

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  • Oh that’s so funny! Obviously they can see which way house prices are going and instead of just reducing the price of their portfolio and selling them individualy at realistic prices, they think that some other stupid mug is going to bail them out and take the collective negative equity away from them! I dont like to be vindictive but with greed like this I hope they get whats coming to them.

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  • I saw a TV programme on them once. They were negotiating with a couple in – erm Ashford was it? They were offering a reduced value to “do a quick deal”. What goes around comes around???

    I think they are astute trying to sell into strength they know the game is up, so they are hoping that the move back up will save them. However i am reminded of the bunker hunt brothers (i often am arent i!). When asked their broker said yes – i did say that they should buy silver i didnt expect them to buy all of it though….. perhaps they asked an EA a good place to invest…I did say they should buy in ashford i didnt expect them to buy all of it though!!!

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  • as for this “Mr Wilson said that he now intends to take part in TV property programmes to mentor buyers and people buying their own homes.” – thats amusing. The advice is you wait for this credit bubble to implode and then buy somewhere, anywhere in anticipation of the next bubble – hope its a long series though. There you go mentoring done.

    As for shifting the properties – i would have thought that they would have secured a (gullible) fund to buy em off them.

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  • anyway its no problem i know two buyers for sure – kp and smiling! 🙂

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  • These smug rentier capitalist oiks are dropping like flies!

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  • Perhaps they had a meeting with their lenders regarding re-financing.

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  • sorry i just read the article a bit more

    “. Mr Wilson said that they had already received a number of approaches from investors wanting to buy the whole portfolio, including a consortium of professional footballers….”

    It just gets better!! Please stop now i need to drink my tea

    We all live in a Robbie Fowler house……

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  • 700 homes dumped on the market at once, excellent news, let’s hope more wise guys, oh sorry, BTL investors, follow suit…

    Greed kept them in the game on the way up now fear is throwing them out. They should have studied The Lifecycle of a Bubble more closely and timed a better exit given they were such savvy property investors. I suspect they are dumping this lot at the end of the Bull Trap too so they better be offering some firesale prices if they want shot.

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  • There have been one or two stories about this duo’s antics – not exactly ‘Mr Nice Guy’ landlords..

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  • mrfibble – studied the lifecycle of a bubble ? Have you ever had a discussion where you disagreed with a maths teacher? …. They are maths teachers not historians. Its quite simple if you can get a 5% average yield against a IR of 3% and a 20% annual capital gain then its all hunky dory. If you keep buying though with leverage (particularly in an inverse pyramid) its still fine until the average yields become marginal and the capital gains become losses. No he did the math he just didn’t expect prices to ever fall – i.e. he didn’t do the history.

    If he was a bit older (and had retired at the top at 65) then he would have been classed as a Guru. And you bet your life he would have wallowed in it. Thats a sad indictment on our society IMO.

    Thats the sad thing – society paints a pretty picture

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  • No doubt a local authority will step in and buy them all at asking price to provide affordable rentals.

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  • I don’t remember any of my old maths teachers fkin their sums up to quite such an order of magnitude.

    Stupid greedy pigs deserve to be homeless

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  • At such a discount from peak, the impact of the sale must surely affect the house price indexes.

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  • Let me join in.

    Mr. Wilson says :
    He said: “The time is right for us to go. It is much easier to offload them now than I think it will be in 18 months. We were going to wait until I was 65, but it is better to sell while interest rates are low, and I expect they will rise after the next general election.”

    Fancy advising your potential buyers that the markt is going to go against them.

    Personally I can’t believe any syndicate would buy all the houses unless they got at least a 20% discount and as pointed out above it’s unlikely there’s 20% equity in this portfolio.

    If I was part of a syndicate looking to buy houses I’d be approaching a national builder. How much discount would you get by agreeing to buy the next 900 houses they build.

    Which leads me onto a bit of a worry. Aviva (Norwich Union) were looking into starting somesort of property fund – could we see the Tesco stile approach of buying up whole new estates leaving literally nothing for plebs like us to buy ?

    Is there any legislation in place to stop investors buying more than x % of houses in an area – I don’t think so.

    Any forward looking government should be expecting something like this and legislating against it.

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  • Maths at college level is mainly deterministic as Tehie said – “5% average yield against a IR of 3% and a 20% annual capital gain then its all hunky dory”.

    He just hasn’t done his stress testing, I can smell the stench from here, at 61 there’s no way back, I would love to rent a house to this guy – only problem is I need a house to live in first 😉

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  • Can’t see these properties being sold in a hurry (unless a large investor did come forward – unlikely but can’t be totally ruled out). When most of the purchases were made might give some clue to the real amount of equity in the portfolio rather than nonsense media hype about net worth. The only way out (an enforced option) may be just to sit and not look forward to a retirement where they have gained nothing except moaning tenants and all the stress from running a business into their seventies or beyond.

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  • Mrperegrination says:

    This is actually rather bad news for tenants in that area. At least in the short term. This seems to be happening everywhere and in large numbers. Idiot landlords got a fright over the last year as their ‘terribly clever’ investments started to look a bit shaky with price drops. Now they’ve all heard on the TV that house prices are going up again so they’re all being ‘terribly clever’ and getting rid of tenants to put the house on the market to release the ‘equity’. Just happened to me this week (with a three week old baby to look after!). Every house I ring up about to move into (and rent) I get told “Oh, no they’ve taken it off the rental market, they’re going to sell it now the market is rising”. There are about to be a LOT of tenants chasing not very many houses. And a hell of a lot of empty properties that will sit empty for a coniderable amount of time as all the ‘terribly clever’ landlords decide to release their ‘equity’. Prices are about to collapse as whole streets go on the market but unfortunately for me it looks like rents are going to go up (although they can’t really go up much further as nobody can afford them).

    What an absolute mess.

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  • They will swamp the local market:

    Ashford: Number of sales and average price Q3 2007 – Q2 2009: all dwelling types (from BBC/Land Registry)
    Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009
    Sales 659 678 376 410 327 257 213 303
    Price 245,459 239,082 232,965 249,884 246,802 228,923 209,725 220,875

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  • Give them their due, they saw an opportunity and made money out of it. Like all opportunities the timing of the buying and selling are critical! Picking Ashford was a smart move as more people want to live in this part of Kent (which is quite nice) with good transport links.

    Yes, I agree that it would have been much better to have sold out to those “Russian investors” 18 months ago. However, getting rid of 200 properties in the last year wasn’t bad! They clearly have skill and contacts. Maybe a property fund like Aviva, in for the long haul, would like to buy in. Better to buy a group of geographically concentrated properties than single lots I would guess.

    They are selling their empire in chunks, not dropping it all onto the market at once. With house prices looking to flatline for the next 6 or 7 weeks they may sell off some large parcels, yet.

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  • For me str2007 has picked up on one of the key points:-

    “The time is right for us to go. It is much easier to offload them now than I think it will be in 18 months. We were going to wait until I was 65, but it is better to sell while interest rates are low, and I expect they will rise after the next general election.”

    I suspect they now need to sell rather than elect to sell and have effectively notified any potential buyers of this – all topped off with a statement which suggests they think the market will be worse after the next election (less than 1 year away) !!

    It will be interesting to see how this particular Wilson ‘case’ actually unfolds in the forthcoming months/years.

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  • “Give them their due” – nope i have BTL and developer mates who drastically reduced their inventory levels and/or got out throughout 2007. They get the “due”. Mark W here gets some due. I would rather be 1 year early than 2 days late ! They would have got more due if they had sold large lumps in 2006/ 07 and perhaps diversified out of ashford.

    Buying in ashford was a smart move but as i said before buying “all of it” wasnt. [I realise they didnt buy the whole of ashford – i am just making a point].

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  • In France they have really cheap nice houses with little investor intervention.

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  • “Give them their due” – they have an illiquid non diversified portfolio and the Government of any day will love this – SDLT, Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax etc… from the information given in the Press over the years there appears (IMO) to be several holes in their financial planning

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  • I’m not sure they are due any dues either. Anything they may have done well has been negated by their greed and arrogance. They have completed distorted the market in one area by snapping up hundreds of properties (often buying off-plan and having first pick from the developers) and therefore screwing opportunities for hundreds of ftbs/families etc. Now they’re going to distort the market on the way out too because unloading that many properties is bound to have an effect. It will be fascinating to see how things progress because I think anyone buying into that portfolio will have a good chance to drive a very hard bargain.

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  • Note the comment that they are selling only to BTLers. Wonder how long it will take to sell 700 houses to them.

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  • The Wilsons selling agent – “yes of course we have lots of buyers on our books, we could sell it ten times over”.

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  • Maybe they should eBay off this toxic sludge they call a portfolio? People love bidding for junk…

    Not sure what is more laughable here, their portfolio or that crisis they call a wardrobe.

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  • LTF – they are selling to BTLrs because the properties are tenanted. I would like to see the yield calcs myself.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    @ European Bear – now that’s a proper maths lesson! Brilliant.

    Maybe they’ll sell it off all in one go to a fund. So what? The fund will also negotiate a hefty discount, I know that I would.

    @ Techie, ta for mention, I’ve got Fred Harrison (Land Value Tax guru) to thank for the timing (although NR going *pop* was a bit of a warning sign). So I saw no harm in exploiting that bit of news for my own benefit. If we draw the analogy with the Hunt Brothers one further, who’s to say that the Wilsons themselves didn’t push up prices slightly by concentrating on Ashford? Classic stuff.

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  • I wonder if the Wilson’s have acted on this bit of wisdom from the NAEA

    House hunter numbers fall (02 Sep 2009)
    The number of house hunters fell in August but the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) said its survey found that the expected summer dip in the property market was not as steep as the market had feared. The average number of people looking for homes with estate agents fell from 292 in July to 238 in August, while the average number of sales agreed per branch also decreased, from nine (8.6) to eight (7.6). The figures also revealed that the gap between asking and selling prices has widened once more, increasing from 7.5% to 11% in the month. First time buyers seem to be returning to the market, accounting for 36% of sales during the month, a significant increase on July’s figure of 22%.

    SOURCE http://www.emoneyfacts.co.uk/news/breakingnews.aspx?newsarticleid=188844

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  • Mark np – “The fund will also negotiate a hefty discount, I know that I would.” yep but then you’re not a consortium of professional footballers are you :-).

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  • Methinks the Wilsons sentemant that it’s time to sell now (before the massive spending cuts and interest rate rises) will echo throughout the country.

    People have been holding off selling for more than 18 months now and can’t wait much longer. I see a glut of properties hitting the market. Anecdotal evidence I have from 2 estate agents inform me that prices are still FALLING and the phones are now ringing with mor requests to market their properties….

    …Anyone for a winter of property discontent?

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  • The BBC online website is notably quiet about this – the editors are probably still smarting from the coverage that Chek Whyte’s bankruptcy got.

    Strange really, because the BBC Online website was happy to trumpet Judith Wilson’s business ‘success’ back in 2006.

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  • nice one paul “If things go to plan, they [the Wilsons] will become the country’s first buy-to-let billionaires.” 11th October 2007

    Whoops!

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  • Also it says “There is no doubt that money can be made from property investment, Fergus and Judith Wilson bought their 700th house at the beginning of this [2007] year”. So either they bought 200 places since then and they have offloaded (probably 200 others that have equity), or one of the 700 / 900 numbers is not right.

    Hmm anyone care to help? Alan @ 22?

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  • Well, if they do go bankrupt that would be a huge wakeup call to the people still in some desperate denial or clinging to the hope that
    prices have started to climb (as sterling starts to wobble again and unemployment increases….h’mmmm).

    They seem like a piece of work: apart from that story about trying to charge a tenant 3000 quid for a new toilet lid, a few years ago a local estate agent annonymously said that they were offering slightly above market prices to builders and the estate agent said that these were new builds intended for FTBs. So it seems that they intentional dfrove up prices in the area.

    May they, their checked apparel, smug grins and faulty logic hightail it! (or perhaps “lowtail it” preferably between their legs).

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  • That’s going to be some capital gains tax bill. Mind you, if they follow the example set by our politicians, they could perhaps flip the designation of each property as their main home!!!!

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  • [email protected] That’s going to be some capital gains tax bill. Apart from my calculation at post 2, I forgot this. As they must have mewed to expand their portfolio perhaps most of any remaining money they have will be gobbled up in taxes. Example: they brought a 3 bed semi in 2001 for 100,000. It went up in value to 250,000 at the peak (real value may have been 235,000 but was inflated based on optimism). They mewed it to 180,000 to expand their portfolio (i.e. LTV of 72% at the peak – quite easy to get such finance in the boom). They manage to offload it now for say 192,000 (i.e. down about 20% from peak). That leaves them 12,000 equity. But the capital gains tax will be 18% of their gain – remember they brought the house for 100,000 ( so capital gains is 18% of 192,000-100,000 = 16,560). So they are well and truly up sh*t creek without a paddle. Expect to see the Inland Revenue along with the banks as creditors in the courts as they file for bankruptcy….yes anything they have left after they have paid off the banks will be swallowed by the Inland Revenue…….
    So you guys who are not mathematicians – I hope you have enjoyed the maths lesson!

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  • After a bit of investigation on Google…..

    She has her own property company now and has launched an Investment bond! From my reading of Mail articles, some properties may have been transferred over to willing investors. The name of the company is featured in Mail articles of 2008. She specialised in new build 4 or 5 bedroom houses, the articles said.

    Judith Wilson’s website link:
    http://www.jwipb.co.uk

    In her favour, she wears fabulous outfits based on the Bay City Rollers kit.

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  • Good post [email protected] I had a quick look at their examples – for each property they put down about 15% deposit. But they MUST have mewed all the way up to get their 15% deposits for each purchase. So they could even have mewed the example I gave to more than their 72% LTV. And they MUST have, repeat, MUST have heavily MEWED to get their working capital for deposits on their next purchase, or alowed the bank to take an edditional charge over existing houses, which amounts to the same thing.
    Quote from Judith Wilson’s website “Judith believes that because there are not enough properties in the UK to meet housing demand, that there is never a wrong time to buy property.”
    They have made the classical mistake – have invested for capital gains. The only thing that can possibly save them is if they are getting enough rental income to cover their interest payments, and that I very much doubt……..(as capital gains taxes are only payable when the gain is made on the sale).
    Maths is a great subject!

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  • Ebear – i remember the tv show that i saw that they actually provided quite low rentals, because – as you say – they were interested in capital gains, and wanted to avoid voids. Also thats why they had Interest only mortgages. Make the rentals as cheap as poss. I note that UT said there were stories that they werent the best LLs. Of course they may have increased rent over time or make a turn on the rental income or not …. we wont really know until either they sell out (and then they will no doubt do a Q&A session) or go bankrupt and explain that it was those nasty bankers CDS’ / CDOs fault.

    As for MEWing – yep an inverse pryamid at its very best.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    @ EuropeanBear comment 41, more applause from me.

    As to fun with numbers, if they had 700 properties with (we assume) net worth of £700 million, that would mean £100,000 equity per property. Assuming they were highly geared (let’s say 80%), that would mean that their properties were worth gross around half a million quid each. Price falls and capital gains tax should wipe them out nicely, methinks.

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  • As i said in a post in April 2008 –

    “Therefore the moral is…..Dont create inverse pyramids – especially in markets that are illiquid and to average a loss is to compound stupidity. BTLrs – stop reading this and start liquidating your portfolios if its not already too late!!! Sunday, April 27, 2008 10:07AM”

    – if you want to read the whole thing its here…. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2008/04/blog-btl-to-the-rescue-12703.php.

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  • Teaching Maths before I am sure they understand what non-deductible interest on debt will mean for their portfolio and now they need to sell ASAP. But claiming previosly that they would not sell all the properties at once in order not to influence the market tells us that they have been involved in manipulating the market by doing same thing sort of thing in buying 900 properties and creating a shortage in Ashford. I guess young families in Ashford will not benefit at all when properties will be sold to other investors. Manipulating Ashford housing market should be a story that authorities would need to look into:

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  • I am just interested. Who is first in line in terms of creditors? The lending bank or the Inland Revenue? And did any of the banks think about the possible tax consequences when they were allowing landlords to MEW their BTLs. I doubt it, because if they had, they certainly should not have allowed BTLs to MEW up to greater than 50% LTV. An initial purchase they can give a greater LTV as the capital gains will be calculated on the purchase price…..
    This all seems so simple and I am not even a maths teacher……

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    @ European Bear, the banks are first in line as they are secured up to the values of the properties. The negative equity bit and any CGT is unsecured so they’ll make Mr & Mrs W bankrupt. Possibly.

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  • This is a beautiful piece on them from The Guardian, December 2006 – http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2006/dec/16/business.houseprices

    I like this quote “The medium-term target is to own 1,000 homes, but more immediately Judith is putting the finishing touches to a new property bond business. It will be launched in January, offering virgin buy-to-let investors the chance to own a 5% share of new properties that she’ll source in the Kent area. If it takes off, her ambition of becoming a buy-to-let billionaire may well become reality.”

    Is that a whole 5%??? I’m in!!!!

    Alan @ 42, to her credit she’s managed to marry the Bay City Rollers to a more contemporary fake Burberry look, sort of Chav City Rollers if you like……

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  • This is a beautiful piece on them from The Guardian, December 2006 – http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2006/dec/16/business.houseprices

    I like this quote “The medium-term target is to own 1,000 homes, but more immediately Judith is putting the finishing touches to a new property bond business. It will be launched in January, offering virgin buy-to-let investors the chance to own a 5% share of new properties that she’ll source in the Kent area. If it takes off, her ambition of becoming a buy-to-let billionaire may well become reality.”

    Is that a whole 5%??? I’m in!!!!

    Alan @ 42, to her credit she’s managed to marry the Bay City Rollers to a more contemporary fake Burberry look, sort of Chav City Rollers if you like……

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  • crash bandicoot says:

    Wow this has tempted me back to posting.

    Are the Wilsons examples of the fabled “professional investors” who will make money from BTL in a falling market?

    No I didn’t think so either.

    While I’m here I’ll add another thought. As we are seeing a happy return to rising prices trumpeted from most media outlets, have they forgotten that it was all subsidised by Northern Rock together style madness. How can they separate one from the other?

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  • Someone needs to publically burst the fantasy bubble built up around property investment and point out that these people were NEVER rich, just in debt to the real owners of their assets, the banks, their valuation all in the mind of a greasy EA.
    Shows up the nonsense of the Sunday Times ‘rich’ list.

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