Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Dead cat stall

House sales 'stalled in August'

"UK house sales fell in August from July, the first drop this year, according to HM Revenue & Customs. Figures from HMRC show that 83,000 homes were sold last month, down from 87,000 in July."

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 11:29 AM (2826 views)
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44 thoughts on “Dead cat stall

  • little professor says:

    Very bad taste, phd. I wouldn’t have expected this from you.

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  • Spring Bounce over, back on your heads!

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    Plenty of bear food at the moment – is that the summer madness over folks?

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  • Who are we?

    Are we someone who has sold a property at the peak of prices and now waiting and hoping for prices to fall, with the intention of buying low and then hoping prices to rise in order to maximize your gains?

    Or perhaps someone who has never owned a property, but again hoping for falls so that you can just get your toe on the first rung, and then hope for increases in order to fulfil your vision of climbing that illusive ladder?

    Are we a home owner, perhaps without, or with very little debt to pay, but children who are desperate to follow in the footsteps of their successful parents. You again hope for falls in order to allow your offspring to have the same opportunities for successful property climbing as you.

    Are we a home owner, with large debts or perhaps with a high percentage of equity who does not want to see their comfortable gains lost?

    Or do we truly believe that house price speculation based on a constant boom and bust cycle does not make for a happy and contented nation, regardless of our position in terms of property ownership, and that a more level and sustainable housing market will be a benefit to all those who simply want shelter for their families.

    Only members of the last class can be proud of their opinions on this site, for all the right reasons.

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  • @LP
    Apologies for turning into a HYS ranter.
    I’ll go and sit in the naughty corner.

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  • Smugdog, I fall into categories 1 and 5, hence my enthusiasm for land/property value taxes, liberalising planning laws and more social housing.

    If I were in categories 1 to 4 and didn’t support LVT etc, that might indeed make a hypocrite.

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  • @smuggers
    “Or perhaps someone who has never owned a property, but again hoping for falls so that you can just get your toe on the first rung, and then hope for increases in order to fulfil your vision of climbing that illusive ladder?”

    Could you help me with my maths please and explain to me me how house price rises help people to climb the property ‘ladder’. Personally, I’m hoping prices fall so the difference I have to pay for a nicer house is less.

    “Or do we truly believe that house price speculation based on a constant boom and bust cycle does not make for a happy and contented nation, regardless of our position in terms of property ownership, and that a more level and sustainable housing market will be a benefit to all those who simply want shelter for their families.”

    House prices are still well above their long term trend, so wanting a stable, sustainable future involves wanting prices to fall from their present level.

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  • @smugdog
    You seem to want to exclude anyone who wants prices to rise. I don’t care what people’s motives are for posting on this site. As long as people raise interesting points and their arguments are sound then I welcome them.

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  • I love the BBC’s “unbiased” utter refutation of the statistics towards the end of the article:

    However the best indicator of near-term trends in sales comes from the Bank of England … Its most recent data shows that mortgage approvals went up

    then the real clincher, an unqualified, unattributed piece of opinion stated as if it were fact – almost “wishing” it into becoming reality:

    overall sales are not likely to fall significantly in the near future

    Could you expect such blatant propaganda even from the People’s Daily?

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  • Like MW 1 & 5 also.

    I can think of so many better destinations for UK money than to have it syphoned off by the financial services industry, by way of inflated house prices. Think, if all the money spent on housing over the past ten years had gone into research, manufacturing, keeping public and private debt down.

    I’d like to buy a home at a sensible price, spend some money personalising it, and have the value increase no more than the cost of improvements and in line with inflation.

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  • I would like a home for my family, and not have to pay someone else an obscene amount for that right !
    If point 5 were a given indicator of human nature and it was the norm, i think / know society would reek the benefits..Stability, Unity, Community.

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  • @smugdog “Or perhaps someone who has never owned a property, but again hoping for falls so that you can just get your toe on the first rung, and then hope for increases in order to fulfil your vision of climbing that illusive ladder?”

    As asked above, how does hpi enable people to climb the housing ladder? Please don’t tell me you’ve fallen for this VI myth as well?

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  • 10. nomad – hink, if all the money spent on housing over the past ten years had gone into research, manufacturing, keeping public and private debt down. – THEN 9/10 OF THE “MONEY” WOUL DISAPPEAR

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  • 12. need-a-crash et al. As asked above, how does hpi enable people to climb the housing ladder?

    Because HP go up therefore you have more equity and also the risk is perceived as less by the lender because a 90%LTV will be 85% next year!!

    Send me a pint through the post smuggy

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  • VI myth, I like it @12. Try to explain that to Mr & Mrs Truly Smug whose house has just increased by say 100K. They do not want to believe, that if they want to move upwards, they are actually much worse off in blinkered Britain.

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  • Who are we?

    Are we someone who has sold a property at the peak of prices and now waiting and hoping for prices to fall, with the intention of buying low and then hoping prices to rise in order to maximize your gains?

    Or perhaps someone who has never owned a property, but again hoping for falls so that you can just get your toe on the first rung, and then hope for increases in order to fulfil your vision of climbing that illusive ladder?

    Are we a home owner, perhaps without, or with very little debt to pay, but children who are desperate to follow in the footsteps of their successful parents. You again hope for falls in order to allow your offspring to have the same opportunities for successful property climbing as you.

    Are we a home owner, with large debts or perhaps with a high percentage of equity who does not want to see their comfortable gains lost?

    Or do we truly believe that house price speculation based on a constant boom and bust cycle does not make for a happy and contented nation, regardless of our position in terms of property ownership, and that a more level and sustainable housing market will be a benefit to all those who simply want shelter for their families.

    Only members of the last class can be proud of their opinions on this site, for all the right reasons.

    I don”t give a damn.

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  • What I find interesting is that this story attributes most of the increase to parents willing to give their kids the deposit. It seems absurd to me that people predominantly in their 50s, who should very clearly remember the last crash and the last recession, are willing to stump up a large amount of their savings (or probably their own home equity) to buy clearly overpriced assets at a time when their children are more likely to lose their jobs. I can understand them wanting to help their kids, what I don’t understand is why they are willing to do it now, when house prices are still so high, and also why they are encouraging their kids to take on such a debt burden. These middle-aged people really should know better. So much for wisdom coming with age.

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  • phd @5 what’s an HYS ranter? Why is it in bad taste? Broke my arm on Thursday and the pain meds are affecting me, I can’t work out simple stuff.

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  • @14 matt_the_hat

    Doesn’t apply if you own your house though does it? – the LTV remains the same on the nicer one (provided they both fall by the same percentage) – and you’ve got less principal to pay down.

    I’ll have that pint and drink it. mmm

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  • @17 fubar
    HYS: ‘Have Your Say’ is the forum on the BBC news website, full of people that like to compare the government, BBC, etc to nazi germany, zimbabwe, etc…. ‘it’s all political correctess gone mad’, etc. I was doing the same by comparing the BBC to the nazi propagandist Joseph Goebbels. Although arguably true that the BBC’s stories relating to house prices are somewhat biased (as Paul likes to point out), comparing them to the nazis is a bit extreme.

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  • HP, you sum it up for me in your conclusion.

    Perhaps this is not the place to share my views.

    I bid you all farewell and good luck.

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  • @smugdog
    Most here have been quite polite with you and matt_the_hat has stood up for you with a good point – so why go?

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  • smugdog @15 Try to explain that to Mr & Mrs Truly Smug whose house has just increased by say 100K. They do not want to believe, that if they want to move upwards, they are actually much worse off in blinkered Britain.

    This exactly hits the nail on the head – its very simple math, but so many people don’t get it.
    HPI makes you ‘feel’ richer as you have more equity, but in reality to buy you’re next house it leaves you much poorer because you have to borrow even more.

    You try explaining it to the Sheeple though 🙂

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  • [email protected] 17 Thanks for the explanation – sorry for being a bit thick. Think I’m guilty of being a bit of an HYS ranter myself at times. The world is quite trippy at the mo for me – swear I just heard Jeremy Vine on wireless saying “Because it’s woman on woman we assume there’s something more fun going on….” Heavens.

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  • I don’t really find the BBC biased; often they are fence-sitters. But the news website is pretty rubbishy – the first destination, I suspect, of cub journalists of the media studies variety. John Simpsons they’re not.

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  • Smuggy – a provocative person…… and which category (or new one) do you fal into? Pray tell!

    As for me: “Are we someone who has sold a property at the peak of prices and now waiting and hoping for prices to fall, with the intention of buying low and then hoping prices to rise in order to maximize your gains?”

    Close actually “someone who has sold a property [near – depending on your definition of near] the peak of prices and now waiting and hoping for prices to fall, with the intention of buying low [and then getting a sensible size place without having to spend all the cash and not giving a sh1t if prices rise thereafter].”

    Are you now leaving as an excuse to not participate as the bullish king canute as you believe best to go rather than the humiliation of being proved wrong? Do you think the writing is now on the wall?

    Admitted i dont play the provocative game as well as you SD!

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  • Smuggsy…….. I like ya entertainment……contribute again please 8O)……

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  • and (he says biting the bait)

    “Only members of the last class can be proud of their opinions on this site, for all the right reasons.”

    in your opinion! Which has how much value i wonder? Only as much as anyone else but definitely not a penny more and maybe a penny less.

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  • [email protected]

    I am in the same position too, but wondering if the pound will totally collapse and inflation set in before property dies. How safe are our savings and the value thereof????

    I need reassurance.

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  • contrails are not a conspiracy (formerly npnh) says:

    Smugdog has been one of the more entertaining and polite bulls here to be fair.

    Another one bites the dust. Ho hum.

    Anyway, hope he doesn’t fall of his high horse on the way out. It’s a long way down.

    Ding…. NEXT!

    ;o)

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Smugdog, pish!

    Where’s GreenBay when you need him?

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  • 4. smugdog said…

    Who are we?

    Speculators in the housing market casino… Didn’t ask to be, didn’t want to be, but that’s just how it is…

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  • Smuggy come back all is forgiven!! We love you really 🙂

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  • I find I periodically get sick of blogging here but then after a while want to join in again, often at a lower key than before. I enjoy Smugdog and others who are outspoken, but not surprised they need to take a break either.

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  • “What I find interesting is that this story attributes most of the increase to parents willing to give their kids the deposit. It seems absurd to me that people predominantly in their 50s, who should very clearly remember the last crash and the last recession, are willing to stump up a large amount of their savings (or probably their own home equity) to buy clearly overpriced assets at a time when their children are more likely to lose their jobs. I can understand them wanting to help their kids, what I don’t understand is why they are willing to do it now…”

    I know someone exactly like this. They remortgaged their home even though her husband (an engineering contractor) is out of work and approaching retirement age and she earns very little part-time. She isn’t particularly bright and in fact most people aren’t – that’s why they’re so easily taken in by msm garbage.

    Someone I know reminded me that “when the government disposed of its holding of BP shares, the ad. campaign had the slogan ‘Be part of it’. Just before the sell-off, the stock market fell to such an extent that the shares could be bought on the open market for considerably less than the government’s offer price. One guy who had gone ahead and bought the shares anyway was interviewed and asked why he did it. The poor sod said that he ‘wanted to be part of it.’ He meant it. I felt so sorry for him – he really didn’t understand what had gone wrong or why, he just trusted what he’d been told…

    Intelligent people vastly overestimate the proportion of their own kind in the population because they work with other intelligent people, play with other intelligent people, and go on online discussion forums with intelligent people and rarely see anyone who isn’t. The people they find unbelievably dim and would hold up as examples of stupid people they’ve met are just normal folk of average intelligence.

    What percentage of the population would you estimate would find Jade Goody normal, or even quite bright? They don’t buy her perfume because they think she’s a freak, they buy it because she was a normal person just like them.”

    What’s the point of warnings that most people can’t understand?

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  • smugdog,

    Stay!
    Sit. ( Sorry couldn’t resist – I’m sad like that )… but seriously, stay – the more opinions the better I reckon.

    I wish for house price falls to reduce the debt of Mr & Mrs Average, since debt is the modern slavery – and this from a cash rich ( saved ) renter who has never owned.

    There will always be some speculation; the best we can do is to remove distortions of which there are many in this particular market.

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  • tenant super – excellent post.

    But as regards the Jade Goody / perfume… I think at this point in time she probably needs it herself more than most.

    Smugdog – roll over!

    Now squeal like a pig!!

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  • Smugdog, everyone have their own opinions, I am a homeowner therefore it does not make any difference to me but I feel for people who have to buy a house a ridiculous price and many of them do not even have a capital repayment plan. How can a country justify the cost of essential being high as acceptable, this filters through the whole economy and this is why the pound had to drop in value to improve our competitiveness. The pound will have to drop further as the country will keep printing the money on the hope that there will be a lag before there are wage increases which could take as long as 2 years.

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  • Great post tenant super @ 35…

    I spent 4 years watching a girl in our office buy The SUN, everyday, read it religiously every sinble day and was then extremely surprised to be told (in 1983) that the paper was (at the time) a complete tory rag. Too dim to even just read the headlines and absorb the editorials around the constant tabloid tripe.

    As great minds say regularly….

    “I’m thick………therefore I am!”

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  • I have been reading this site for a couple of years and before the crash, I tried to warn people by showing them (and trying to explain to them) the excellent ABN Amro report which was available from this site’s resource section. This blew all the myths (such as the population/ demographic myth) out of the water, using rent rises and other evidence to support their conclusions. I was shocked that a paper, so concise and clear, was beyond the grasp of those people who did take the time to read it. They didn’t understand the evidence and they found the paper too difficult/ complicated. They could however understand the chattering of TV property stars without a shred of economic nouse between them. Many of them didn’t even want to listen to the warnings. Even now, there is a 27 year old guy at work who had the offer of a mortgage (5 x joint salary to buy a cruddy box) withdrawn. I kept telling him, he had been saved from himself, but he still just doesn’t get it. He can’t understand he would have already lost his deposit and most likely be in negative equity. He still sees himself as a victim of the nasty bank who changed their mind and now won’t lend him this vast, unaffordable sum.

    Not all the fools who have been suckered are intellectually deficient. Greed, fear, laziness (not doing the homework) and herd mentality has also played a part. But of those entering the bull trap, stupidity certainly heads the list.

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  • Tenant super – if they got it then it wouldn’t have happened.

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  • tenants super @ 35
    Truely awful post.Reminded me a little of the Mail – ill informed rant, tinged with self-aggrandisement.
    You don’t like people do you?

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  • @Tenant Super

    I can’t help agreeing. It does not take an awful lot of wit to work out that if prices for houses are rising faster than incomes, then the only way to afford the same house is to take on more debt. And it must also be really obvious that this can’t go on for ever.

    But we humans are very good at kidding ourselves. From telling yourself that the bathroom scales are wrong, to the fact that you were well able to drive even though you’d had a few drinks, to how much of a great driver you are anyway, to how the company can’t possibly do without you, to how you could easily have got a 1st if you wanted to …. to the fact that the extension you built “only” cost X but added XX to the value of your house.

    It’s amazing what you can believe if your self-esteem relies upon it.

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  • Believing one is more intelligent than the masses, though tempting, is making oneself a bit of a hostage to fortune. I suspect the reason that most people believe in the ever-rising house price myth is a combination of youth (know no better), not bothering to think about it, and bowing to pressure of received opinion (which is very hard not to do). Consider that famous psychology expt in which a subject administers progressively stronger electric shocks to a person in another room, who yells out each time. The majority continue by transferring responsibility to the “scientist”. It was repeated recently, same result. Quite disturbing. So perhaps scepticism is a more valuable quality than intelligence, whatever that might be.

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