Monday, September 14, 2009

Daily Mail mentions the Baltic Dry

The Ghost Fleet Recession

Some good pics too. The thing that haunts me most about all of this is actually Bernankes promise to Milton Friedman at MF's 90th that he would never allow another Great Depression to happen.

Posted by bellwether @ 03:36 PM (1450 views)
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6 thoughts on “Daily Mail mentions the Baltic Dry

  • Lets see the facts

    2011 will be bad for shipbuilders

    2011 will be worst year for resets to arms etc in usa mortgage market

    2011 will be when the stimulus packages run out of steam

    hmm 2011 prediction is looking pretty accurate

    remember the 30’s and how it was 4 years later when the real bad stuff hit

    anyone else have info on 2011

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  • You’re right Mark, 2011 sounds scary. I could add:

    2011: worst for unemployment (?)

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  • Mark said, anyone else have info on 2011 ?
    A year before 2012 ! Ask s2r1 if his around, probably brief you enough to keep you thinking..

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    @ Mark, if you want info on 2011, you’ll have to ask if you can borrow Fionulalala Earlyer’s Time Travel Machine.

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  • There is a chart here showing how Baltic Dry Index leads stock prices. BDI turned down again in June.

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  • The following is a quote from David Rosenberg.
    “All the growth we are seeing globally this year is due to fiscal stimulus; not just here in Canada and the U.S., but also in Korea, China, the U.K., and Continental Europe too. For 2010, the government’s share of global growth, by our estimates, will be 80%. In other words, there are still very few signs that organic private sector activity is stirring. For a Keynesian, government stimulus is necessary, but the question for an investor is the multiple one attaches to a global economy that is still relying on a defibrillator. The problem is that governments do not create income or wealth, and today’s stimulus is really a future tax liability. Curiously, that future tax liability is likely going to pose a roadblock for the return to a “normalized” $80 operating EPS estimate that strategists are now starting to pen in for 2011.”

    He states that the optimists are seeing earnings of $80 for the S+P come 2011. Given we seem to be closing in on 1100, that means that even if the optimists are right they are already trading the S+P at a P/E of 13.75. Hardly a compelling case for diving in.

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