Monday, August 24, 2009
Investors don’t tend to kid themselves
U.K. House Prices to Drop Further 13%, Bond Investors Forecast
You won't find this featured anywhere in the mainstream media this week.
Posted by paul @ 09:42 PM (3075 views)
3 thoughts on “Investors don’t tend to kid themselves”
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quiet guy says:
@paul
I’m not sure that I agree with your title. From where I’m standing, investors appear to be driven by sentiment – just look at positive response by stocks and treasuries to Bernanke’s speech on the 21st. Are RBS bond investors any smarter? We’ve recently had a few months of house price growth and the warm feeling from Bernanke so perhaps this 13% drop is actually the rosy tinted view?
new user 2007 says:
“House prices rose for a third month in July, according to Nationwide Building Society, while the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said Aug. 6 that prices will increase this year, reversing an earlier prediction of a drop of as much as 15 percent.”
I am wondering how many months worth of “negative” data it took for RICS to make the forecast for a 15% fall, and how many months worth of “positive” data it took for them to do a complete reversal. I suspect it took far fewer months of evidence to revert to “positive”.
techieman says:
NU2007 – yes they cant work it out can they? To assume they can and give them credibility for ANY forecast is (and call me a cynic) a bit on the naive side.