Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Property price nostalgia for bulls

Homes shortage set to push up property prices

Property values are set to rise in the next three months as a lack of homes props up prices, estate agents believe ...

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:22 AM (1941 views)
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24 thoughts on “Property price nostalgia for bulls

  • Brickormortis says:

    “Estate Agents Believe”. I am laughing my ar$e off. Of course they say. I can tell you anecdotally, in Shropshire there has been a flood of new property on the market in recent weeks and lots that were taken from the market three or four months ago only to be put back.

    The supply and demand argument again and it is largely flawed not least because no job = no money = no mortgage. We have also (in our media) stopped talking about immigrants arriving and forgotten to cover the issue of them leaving again which of course reduce pressure on housing.

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  • In other news… The jar of clutch straws is almost empty…

    Lack of homes my @rse.

    Who are all these people desperate to buy houses in a falling market?

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  • I stopped at “estate agents believe”.

    I stopped buying the Times about 3 years ago, due to their continual cheer leading, especially from Ashworth and Rosie.

    The bricks chicks seem to have crawled under their stone thankfully.

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  • All: The Times haven’t yet woken up to read the PWC report that has been published in the Guardian:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jul/14/pwc-house-prices-recovery

    For those with longer memories, have a read of the PWC report in November 2006: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article622532.ece

    If you look at this, and now the latest one in the Guardian, then you’ll see that PWC are pretty reasonable with their reporting accuracy. Back in Nov 2006 they gave a downturn a 30% chance – a figure that was regarded as total fiction by almost everyone but …. HPC.

    which all says that The Times want to bury the news from PWC – because I can’t believe they don’t know about it.

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  • I hate to say it but there really is becoming a shortage here where I live in South Devon. However we do live in a coastal town and second home holiday letting is booming at the moment. Which is really annoying for me as all I want is an affordable home, but as long as there are investors out there snapping up the best properties I’m just not prepared to compete and sling a huge mortgage round my neck.

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  • Not being a trusting person when it comes to Estate Agents comments/BS, I had a gander at the house price futures on IG Index.

    September Futures is showing as £154.4k (mid-price) and December Futures are at £152.9k (mid-price) as opposed to £157.7k for the settled June price.

    I am fairly sure that IG are likely to be closer with projected figures than the EA’s.

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  • The lack of homes for sale correlates with the market consensus – if you can’t sell now, then take it off the market. This is why there are so few homes for sale at this time. But if the market feels it’s the wrong time to buy or sell, why would anyone buy a house at a higher price? Estate agents wishful thinking I suspect together with over optimistic vendors. Stalemate.

    A house valued at £1 million over a year ago in Devon couldn’t attract a buyer, so the vendors arranged a Lottery sale which was aired on the local TV. A foreigner won the property last month and has decided to sell the house. Current asking price £650K. It seems the local TV have failed to pick this up.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    BM “We have also (in our media) stopped talking about immigrants arriving and forgotten to cover the issue of them leaving again which of course reduce pressure on housing”

    Exactly, well said. UK salaries used to be four times as high as in Poland a few years ago, but we’ve got less jobs, their economy has picked up and their currency has gained about 50% against sterling, so UK salaries (before housing costs) are now only about twice as high and they’re returning in droves to a country with far cheaper housing and a vastly superior education system. Bless ’em.

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  • george monsoon says:

    Mark… “Polish currency has gained about 50% against the pound”

    What currency is that again? I might buy in…

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  • george monsoon says:

    Mark… “Polish currency has gained about 50% against the pound”

    What currency is that again? I might buy in…

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  • still renting says:

    @mark wadsworth

    You’re exagerating somewhat on the Zloty’s rise against stirling. 3 years ago there where 5.9 Zlotys to the Pound, now it’s about 5.1. However there was a large increase in wages in Poland, largely in response to labour shortages caused by emigration of skilled workers. Certainly Poles had begun to return home on mass, but it’s hard to tell whether that trend is continuing now that the Polish economy is also struggling.

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  • Low prices lead to low supply, which leads to high prices. Yeah, If you say so.

    And what’s this about a few sunny days leading to higher demand for ‘summer food’ and therefore to higher demand generally? Does the consumption of summer food outweigh the resulting non-consumption of non-summer food? Or is summer food more expensive than non-summer food?

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  • still renting says:

    I’ve no idea why I felt the need to add that comment. It’s hardly relevant to the article. Sorry.

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  • japanese uncle says:

    There are certain kind of human beings whose internal organs are inexplicably and tragically tangled up, resulting in an incredible horrific condition in which mouth has to serve the purpose of evacuation and farting. This man is no exception.

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  • We really ought to launch a campaign to blow the shortage myth out of the water..

    ..how about a 1% campaign – 1% of all UK land that is not currently under residential development or has residential planning consent, to be released for residential use..?

    It’s hard for the nimbys to argue that a mere 1% is ‘concreting over the countryside’ – but that’s all we need.

    You could, in theory, build 7 million houses on that much land, but as we’ve seen too many crowded rabbit hutches built in the last 50 years, we need some more decent homes with gardens built.

    At a density of five per acre, that would be 3 million houses – plenty of living space for everyone.

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  • the number cruncher says:

    The myth that wildlife is affected by house building is utter tosh and the wildlife argument is just used as a smokescreen by NIMBYs

    Most back garden’s have far more wildlife than a farmers field as proved by many report’s including that of the Government’s own wildlife advisors, Natural England.

    The Dutch have a great system of building nature reserves with housing developments, making a sum wildlife gain, they even have a master plan linking up all their nature reserves so wildlife can move between them. Obviously planning is much more complicated as you need to take into account travel to work and services like water etc.

    Our planing system is more about corruption and local politicians not upsetting the NIMBY’s – I have seen it many times and have lots of examples,

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  • UT – I’ve got to disagree. I here your point but take a look around you – everywhere you look there are new developments. I agree they are poxy little boxes but for god’s sake the last thing we need is more houses. I cannot believe for a nano-second that we need this many – where did everyone live when we were kids – the population hasn’t grown that much. If we could just stop Sarah Beeny reproducing for a couple of years we could demolish half the houses in the country and still have a surplus!

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  • tt,

    The population HAS grown, and while housebuilding and overall population do not look too far out of kilter, we do have an issue with a greater (and growing) proportion of the population being adults, and therefore needing more places to live.

    In addition, much of the housing built in the last few years has been very small.

    If we had not had a lax attitude to immigration we would not have an issue; but as only the BNP are serious about mass deportation, we have to look at increasing the nation’s living space.

    1% of the land is all we need, just one acre in every 100. Couple that to a population cap, not allow immigration to exceed emigration; and everyone can afford a decent place to live.

    – Sorted!

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  • UT – I haven’t seen the numbers but what I do know is that where I grew up, where I live now, and everywhere in between, there are whole big ugly developments where there used to be fields. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not some ageing hippy yearning for the good old days but it’s getting to the point where it’s tempting to leave the country – I’m sure that if the BNP came to power then enough people would feel the same for this whole thing not to be an issue – I know I would.

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  • GBPPLN

    14.07.09 is currently = 5.08
    13.07.07 closed Ldn = 5.55

    where is the 50% change?

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  • There is no shortage because the rents are falling. The imaginary army of buyers would need to rent or buy but they definatelly not buying having 60% less volume in house sales and they do not need to rent either because the rents are going down.

    A lot of properties need to be sold but the recovery process will have to make sure that a property at a time is brought on to the market. This process will probably last for one more year.

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  • Well i looked ( currious ) at about 20 properties a year or so ago in the 300 – 400K bracket locally.

    ALL ( yes ALL ) those properties are still for sale 12 months on and all at the same price, i can only imagine ( hope ) the EAs are really struggling due very few sales, bit suprised they are not looking to lower prices and boost sales – thats what feed their Bank balance after all

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  • the number cruncher said @16

    the Dutch DID have that system. Where I live , in a nature reserve, they have just cut down 40,000 trees. Also the new builds are following the English pattern of small, small, small. A shame because they had great architecture and town planning here before.

    Having said that I would still have to be a millionaire in England to enjoy the same standard of living as I do here at the mo and I am far from even rich!

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  • Agree with mander – if there was a shortgage of housing, wouldn’t rents have gone up accordingly? Also, I’m sure I read that more than sufficient housing have been built in the past decade to cope with population increases over the corresponding period. I believe prices have increased because of BTLs competing with FTBs, with both being given access to increasing finance, not because of any mythical supply shortage.

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