Tuesday, July 28, 2009

More ramping

First 2009 rise for house prices

As we know from experience, HMLR figures just lag Nationwide/Halifax by two or three months, so this is hardly surprising and we can expect similar headlines for the next couple of months, even after Nationwide/Halifax start reporting price falls in Autumn.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 11:40 AM (2268 views)
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21 thoughts on “More ramping

  • Wageslavex14 says:

    The BBC story is incorrect – they report a 1% rise rather than a 01% rise. Have now emailed them to correct this.

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  • Btlers-r-2hats says:

    BBC state 1% rise, Land Registry 0.1%. I’ve just been on the TV License web site. A license is £142.50. I think I’ll just pay £14.25, that’s the same obviously.

    No-beds.

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  • Wearedoomed says:

    Rise is actually 0.1 not 1.0, BBC have reported this wrong.

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  • Yep this is just reflecting the Haliwide flattening out, which started off three or four months back now. LR figures will probably stay about flat for another 3 months or so, which will see the year on year fall improve markedly on that measure. We already knew this was coming.

    The real question is, what will happen to the Haliwide figures over the next 3-6 months. If they flatline for another six months, then I honestly think we might be done with nominal falls, and we’re looking at stagnation until incomes catch up (which will accelerate once inflation ramps up next year). Alternatively, people will realise that prices are not going to increase, and we’ll finally see a material rush of properties coming to market, which will kick off phase two of the crash.

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    A stalemate by sellers/buyers will crucify EAs and ironically they’ll be the ones driving price drops from now – otherwise they sink. I’m already witnessing this in Exeter; turnover is pitiful after the rush of the last few months.

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  • Bear Not Sheep says:

    I have always maintained that the crash will behave as Pelethar has described. Although most people disagree it is the natural conclusion of all the governments intervention.

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  • For anyone to think that the effects of soaring unemployment will not be felt by the housing market is just misty-eyed optimism.

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  • tyrell

    But surely in an attempt to get houses onto the market Estate Agents will overvalue to encourage instruction.

    Without doubt alot have sold round here recently (South Hampshire) and flicking through rightmove I’d say the local agents are running out of stock.

    This could be a temporary holiday thing, however I expect agents to raise asking prices when they get the opportunity of an instruction, simply to get the house on their books.

    Now whether or not the buyers, banks and surveyors have an appetite for higher prices will remain to be seen, I hope not.

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  • I can’t see how prices are going to head back upwards in the near future – “The 0.1% rise in June compared with May” is pretty close to Zero in my book. The lenders are currently taking a much more responsible view than they did say 2 years ago and thus the EA’a can price a property anyway they want it ultimately comes down to affordability and at the moment the criteria is vastly tougher than it once was.

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  • george monsoon says:

    Pelethar @1 – you really believe houses have flatlined?

    Very funny, the irony in your sarcasm is almost believable.. .. lol

    back to reality.. houses are going DOWN a lot further before wages start to increase.

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  • britishblue says:

    lest we forget, the Land Registry does not include sales of repossessions which are considered ‘trade sales.’ If reposessions were factored in, it could still represent a loss. Whilst Halifax and Nationwide dont exclude repossessions, the majority of these are bought at auction, Given that you have to stump up 100% of thebvalue in 4 weeks or you lose your 10% deposit that had to be paid on the day, one could summise that these are bought by cash buyers who dont need mortgages. So this element will not show in the Halifax and Nationwide Index.

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  • Europeanbear says:

    0.1% increase = 1.2% YOY increase. Inflation = 1.8% ( if you beleive official figures), so real decrease of c 0.6% YOY. No siggn of a recovery just yet.
    Also we have “spring bounce”
    No reposessions in the figures
    Probably only better quality homes selling and trash not selling
    House price cash still very much on. I still expect to see 10-20% drops over the next 12 months

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  • 0.1% – wow. Better buy now before you miss the boat *lol*

    It will be interesting to see the next few months of figures to see what those exciting Halliwide figures have actually turned into…

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  • Still looking for the big upturn in volume. Does any one know if the repossessed/auctioned houses count towards the volume number?

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  • Why is the title of this article ‘more ramping’ ? The figures would have been reported just as prominently had they shown a fall.

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  • I think the report summary clarifies everything …

    “The June data from Land Registry shows a reduced annual house price movement of -14 per cent, which is the result of improved monthly change. This is the first time in well over a year that monthly change has been positive. However as the monthly increase is only 0.1 per cent, the movement does not signal a return to solid growth, but rather flattening prices.
    The average house price in England and Wales is now £153,046. The number of sales averaged 30,997 per month from January to April 2009. In the same period last year, the average was 59,948.”

    So, sales down by 50%, that is in no way a sign of a recovery. I wonder how far they’re down from 2007? I think we can expect this to have a couple of months of ~+1%, then prices will continue to fall. I think the autum is going to be carnage, like last year!

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  • Jim, I agree – I think the article was pretty fairly worded actually. Whenever a news item pertaining to price rises appears on this site, no matter how true or fair it may be, there are some posters here who will do nothing more than sneer at it and dismiss it as VI spin. I think this is dangerous and lazy – lots of people on this site did the same thing back in 2005 – we were all absolutely sure that prices wouldn’t rise again, and we were proved absolutely wrong.

    I agree with previous posters that there is very, very little scope for price rises in the near future. But I think a continued stalemate (in nominal terms) is a real possibility. Few people would have said 18 months ago that volumes could stay as low as they have, for as long as they have. Right or wrong, many vendors are feeling bullish and will continue to hold out. Don’t get me wrong, I hope this doesn’t happen, but I think it might do.

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  • People tend to get entrenched in their views. Like most bloggers I thought house prices would fall a further 10-15% this year. But the BoE slashed interest rates, the government brought out a scheme to stem reposessions and theh they started printing money. Each of these actions has been dismissed by many on this site but here we are and prices have stopped falling.

    Nobody knows for sure what will happen next – but ignoring what is happening now certainly won’t help you.

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  • @luckyjim

    The BBC never gives the full picture – it has become extremely selective about which statistics to emphasize recently.

    Everyone here by now should know what 0.1% means – it is too small to show up in any figures, too small to influence anything but *just* enough to say that there has been a rise. We saw many of them around the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2007 and now they’re making a comeback.

    Shame on the BBC for ramping such a figure.

    It is however firmly in line with the BBC’s more recent attempts to shape public perceptions – they are nothing if not consistent with the party line:

    Further sign of housing pick-up
    Summer rise in mortgage lending
    ‘Upturn signs’ in housing market

    All of the articles ‘forget’ to mention the likely effect of approaching 3 million unemployed. This is partisan journalism at its worst and most desperate – Pravda and Peoples Daily look tame in comparison to this kind of drivel.

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  • luckjim

    As you know, we discussed the turning point as far back as last Christmas, & I recall you actually went ahead and got a new build.

    I was very close myself but decided to wait a little longer. Jan Feb and March I believe did represent a good buying opportunity for those looking for a last house.

    However, despite what I’ve seen around me I currently feel more convinced we’re seeing a false dawn and personally expect falls to resume in the autumn when another round of bad news or stock market falls make everyone realise we’re not out of the woods yet.

    Although the above article may read ok, Paul does have a point about how a glimmer of positive statistics is put over, not only by he Beeb but the media in general. Where I can’t help but feel the majority of editors have quite a bit to loose in the housing market.

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