Tuesday, July 7, 2009

More bull for the bulls….

Comment: House prices will rise this year - June +1.6%

This is the fifth consecutive month that the widely reported seasonally adjusted figures have shown worse figures than the real ones. The cumulative difference between these two figures in the first 6 months of this year is 1.9pc

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:12 AM (2228 views)
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25 thoughts on “More bull for the bulls….

  • Saw “By Ray Boulger” then stopped reading!

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  • So what will drive the price rises then?

    Sentiment can only go so far when hundreds of thousands are loosing their jobs or having their wages/hours cut each month.

    Wage deflation and house price inflation just don’t go together, or did we all get hundred grand deposited in our accounts while we slept?

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  • Old_traveller says:

    “…Nationwide are clearly confident about the initial robustness of the real figures… ”

    How can anyone be confident on any kind of “robustness” when transactions and supply are still at historic lows? hilarious.

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  • I emailed them to suggest it might help the reader understand the objectivity of the writer if the Telegraph disclosed any relationship of Ray Boulger to CML.

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  • @growler

    To be fair, the bulls seem to be enjoying a revival at the moment but I don’t see how it can last in the current environment. Boulger is relatively restrained compared with some others.

    http://news.assetz.co.uk/articles/4869.html

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  • george monsoon says:

    Well its all happening at my workplace..
    I can’t name names, but we actually made a massive profit last year, but now they are offering voluntary redundancy, asking us to take a pay cut of 5% and this morning I got an email offering me a lovely “opportunity” to take as much unpaid leave over the summer months as I wanted. How kind of them.!!

    So back to topic.. how in the FLYING F*** can houses be going up at the moment? everyone is losing their jobs, paycuts, no banks are lending.. these guys need a swift 2 x 4 round the head to bring them into the real world.

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  • happy mondays says:

    @ 2 So what will drive the price rises then?

    The dream state of elixir, a massive illusion driven by vi’s, as they probably know this is the last chance saloon to get it moving, there last bastion of hope…But with the rest of the economy slowly crumbling away into the abyss, job loses, corrupt government, [email protected]@ker bankers, the reality will soon hit as houses can not be propped up by spin !
    That’s off my chest now, shall now have some brekky ..

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  • … if interest rates stay low for a longer period, then people will have lower mortgages to repay and will be less likely to sell their property at a lower price.. if that is true, then the number of properties on the market will be low with respect to demand..

    For how long can interest rates remain low? in Japan, they were low for a number of years if I remember correctly..

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  • James In London says:

    Interesting that the grammar is so poor… it would appear that nobody properly proof-read it! Key quote was the fear that interest rates would raise “TO quickly.” Aw, diddums, back to Key Stage 2 English, now…

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  • Re the employment situation, was at a family get together on Sunday with my 3 nieces and all 3 said their partners were now unemployed and struggling to even get interviews or were worried that they weren’t getting much work. Also, I am getting a huge number of phone calls from local companies offering discounts on home improvements, carpet cleaning etc.

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  • bellwether says:

    This is all a waste of copy. While the cheerleading did no harm on the way up, a sine qua non of the bubble was hoardes of people with easy access to money way above incomes competing with each other.

    Without this component the bulls*it is like trying to jump start a car without an engine. There aren’t enough people to keep the upward price pressure going, although there are sellers stubborn enough not to drop prices and a few buyers ignorant enough to think there is no better time to buy. This is how it will be with prices eroding over quarters and years, we better get used to it. There will perhaps be shocks to the system along the way, eg liquidation of buy to let, repossesion of truly defaulting loans but there will be no trend upwards until no-one really cares about property anymore. Reading this site we are a long way from that!

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  • Theemperorhasnoclothes says:

    Oh wow seasons don’t matter anymore. Cool!

    Lets rememeber that in the winter 2009. What a crash that’ll be without seasonal adjustments.

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  • The Baldman says:

    Fix the numbers to fool the public. Buy buy buy. Then at the end state that interest rates will stay low because the economy is in a mess. Total VI idiot!

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  • @George Monsoon

    My workplace is the same as yours

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  • Thanks TC, was proud of that post myself ! Inspired by the ire

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  • letthemfall says:

    george m: “how in the FLYING F*** can houses be going up at the moment?”

    Well, I think the answer probably is – they’re not. As transactions are so low at present the averages that come from them are unreliable and not an indicator of a real trend. The market is so restricted that it’s marking time, and given a small apparent boost because sellers are holding off in the belief their house will be worth an even bigger fortune soon. Just shows how ingrained the house thing has become. How long will this quasi-stable state last??

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Go on Titanic, is your cottage listed on Rightmove or something? Post a link so that we can do a virtual visit to your home (or is that former home?).

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  • Be quick titaniccaptain the window of opportunity is closing…

    Just spoke to a guy at work who asked if me if selling now and renting is the right thing to do, which is what I’m currently doing. Apparently all his financial buddies are advising that things will be back to normal by December (yes this year :-P).

    This same guy has been trying to sell a place now for 18 months, obviously chasing the market down each step of the way. I told him he needs to get the price under the curve, but there is no chance of that now since he believes prices are going back up.

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  • Mrfibble… are you now tempted to get back on the ladder before the window closes?

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  • bluebeach… Like hell I am… It’s taken me since September last year to shift my starter home… I’m on buyer number four now, having failed three times with three previous FTB who lost confidence in the housing market before exchange… These current positive figures are music to my ears as my buyers believe they are buying at the bottom and the indexes are supporting their belief nicely…

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  • Strange you should say that TC, my partner loves Barmouth and has been looking in that area, however my work is for JCB on the Wrexham / Chester border, so I need a base here. The market is still proving very stubborn here,although starting to dip down again I suspect. I still believe things will get worse here with the relience on Manufacturing for jobs, so I am staying in rented for now.

    Mrflibble, I can’t work out if you are selling, have a buyer and hope that the market green shoot stay until you sell, or have sold. Therefore I can’t understand your “music to your ears” Please expand.

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  • bluebeach… I’m selling, hopefully will exchange next week. I’m all too aware that I am riding the bull trap right now, so am happy the media is crying ‘green shoots’ and the indexes are positive. Ironically the price I got this time around was more than the price I accepted back in Oct 2008. The market is completely crazy and I’ll be quite happy to be away from it for a couple of years…

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  • You too titaniccaptain…

    If you can, try get the exchange pushed through as quickly as possible, hopefully before the prices head South again, although I suspect you have a wider audience than me, which should help a lot. Being stuck with FTB’s in a falling market is awful.

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  • People are being sucked into a trap. Remember the film it’s a “Mad, Mad, Mad World”. That had a big ‘W’ in it too!

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  • Mr Ray needs to study a bit of basic statistics before putting this thoughts on paper 🙂

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