Friday, July 24, 2009

And dow for the Bull!

Investment Postcards

Sorry about the "pun"ishment but worth a look.

Posted by bellwether @ 12:51 PM (1288 views)
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25 thoughts on “And dow for the Bull!

  • worth a look? is that a “long” look b/w?

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  • If that sorry looking focker is bullish, then I’m now bearish.

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  • Quite a balanced piece actually but I think people are prepared to buy for gains further out than he thinks. If 3% GDP was going to happen in 2011, then I would do some strategic buying now.

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  • flash – i dont think he is – i think hes just saying that Richard Russel of Dow therory is . And Richard Russell is almost apologising that his signals mean that he is bullish. About a week ago this guy (not RR) was saying that the technicals looked ugly and that there was a H&S formation that broke the neckline and then went back to test it. I fell for it too! Just goes to show how ficle TA is as a mistress….. now where is that EUR / GBP …….. hmm.

    BTW – i dont like being called a “day trader” for various reasons, which i wont bore you with now.

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  • mountain goat says:

    Everyone talking about stock market but what about the dollar breaking support at the moment? This 2 week stocks rally is in lock step with a 2 week falling dollar which was just above its 50 day moving average at that time. Lots of bonds to sell next week so a weak dollar is handy to foreign buyers. Once the bonds are sold off next week I won’t be surprised to see the “flight to quality” and bear market resume. Surely since the economy has been socialised so much lately the government bond market is the big thing to watch, not bailed-out recession economy numbers? Low volume summer market is easy to manipulate by the lords of Wall Street, technical analysis no match for them.

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  • techie: No, he is quoting David Rosenberg as a counter to Richard Russel. I am keying off the David Rosenberg comment about immediate growth prospects not matching the stock markets gains.

    A quick question: How much (out of ten) would you say you believe in this H&S stuff. I’m genuinely intrigued. I don’t want to get into a technical analysis debate so would it be possible to put a number on it without qualifying comments?

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  • MG – a while back i think i said that we would see a rise in the srtock markets off the march lows then a pullback (which i admitedly thought would be bigger) then a move up again. This to me is the second leg of that upmove. When that falters i think we revert to test the March lows – thats a pretty brave call by the way or maybe arrogant – blame it on the german ancestry . As for the $ – what support (pair) is that?

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  • H&S – flash reversal or continuation? It depends if its obvious – as we spoke about before re the pivs.

    So the answer is no i dont take too much notice of H&S at all. But i did think 810 S&P and then 50/50 whether we would go up again and breach the 850 high or just retrace toward that. Of course now we have breached the 850 i need to do some calcs re the area where i think the highs will go to – or start to see some downside confirmation. Perhaps you are right and i will have to wait a long time! That would be ok – there are always the metals and the softs to play with. I defer to Granville.

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  • Europeanbear says:

    Double dip is on its way. Too much debt everywhere…..wait to the autumn or early next year – Dow back at 7000. No meaningful recovery before 2011. It is a rally in a secular bear market which started with the dot com melt down in 2000….and a secular bear will last 10-15 years, so it may have some way to run yet

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  • Flash to be specific- i cant put a number on it – since what constitues a real H&S is arguable – i mean is a left shoulder symetrical with a right, does the neckline slope etc etc. I must admit this one in the S&Ps did look a bit textbook – probably too textbook! Still we would all be rich with hindsight. If the neckline got broken and another level of resitance (in this case) is also broken quite close, then i would get out – esp if there was a key reversal / bullish engulfing candle etc etc. I think i am trying to say its a combination of indicators and the H&S is one which i dont give much weight to.

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  • mountain goat says:

    TM was calling 79 support on US dollar index NYBOT . Bounced off this twice since December. I like your call. Based on TA or just your hunch?

    I off to Snowdonia now have a good weekend all!

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  • techie: Thanks. Yes, the problem I have with patterns is that if you use enough time frames, you’ll find any pattern you like. If that is the case, are you limited to trading in the time frame in which you found the pattern…or must the pattern come up, in some sort of master time frame?

    I once knew someone who spent several years trying to make an automatic trading system (in his spare time). He showed me some sort of automatic Fib software that he was incorporating into the thing. He used several time frames and it made me chuckle when I saw how many Fib lines were drawn on his chart. There were so many of them that the price couldn’t fail to hit them 100 times a day. That was years ago and he is still touchy when people rib him about his magic money box. He still claims that it would have worked if his back testing could have looked inside the bars of historical data and if the data wasn’t so full of dodgy ticks.

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  • MG TA ATB TM

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  • flash – yes as you have alluded to before the problem with pattern recognition parts of TA is that you can see what you want to see. Thats not to say i havent used it. As for timespan then if you get some confirmation on the dailies weeklies etc, or get the directional call that seems to be supported at all timeframes then thats coroberation (sp?). But you know all this stuff anyway… are you toying with me Flash ? – jk.

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  • Earnings for Microsoft and Amazon, about as good an indicator for techs/consumption as you could get, tank and the nasdaq barely flinches. Incredible. Opened up to the possibilty of turning bullish but the bar for next earnings season is going to be higher, and it will take a lot more than cost cutting to get over it. Have a good weekend mofos.

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  • u2 bw

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  • No, not toying with you at all. Just curious about how you work. What does -jk mean?

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  • jk = joke – (not jurik – http://www.jurikres.com/) you are showing your age Flash! I am very flexible in the way i work so really i cant say definitively i get up monday morning and do this and that, i do think i am quite conservative and have really kept my head just above water this year (so far) on the financials although last year was a bit on the bumper side.

    IF i hadnt bottled it on cable last year then i would have been close to retirement – i got short at 2.04 of large (for me) size saw no pain and then saw it down to 1.85 then reduced stop to 1.99 – which got hit by a few pips and preceded to collapse to the 1.30s as you know! Still IFs dont pay the rent!

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  • I have to admit to often being baffled by blog acronyms. I am ashamed to still not know what MEW or MEWING is. I have wracked my brains about what it could mean.

    By the way, I am mid 40’s but I have very young children so I had better get more hip with blog speak. If you don’t mind me asking how old are you?

    The reason for my curiosity re your trading, is that I want to pack it in soon and I always assumed that I’d have to completely give up trading because I cant imagine doing it without hearing the daily drumbeats and having the benefit of some serious technology. It would be nice to still do it when the fancy took me but I’d have to somehow retool. My plan is to finish my book, cycle the length of Italy, then look for something fairly leisurely to do

    I looked up the meaning of day trader. Do you object to the term because you trade less frequently? In my ignorance, I thought a day trader was someone who worked on their own.

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  • shipbuilder says:

    Flash – Mortgage Equity Withdrawal. Finish your book? Do you mean reading or writing?

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  • MEW is nothing to do with blogosphere blog speak – it just means Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (so its relevant here only really ) – you should look at the chart – sorry graph 😉 section at the top – they have a chart on it , thoought they have changed the name. Personally i dont like ANY acronyms. You know those types that only speak in acronyms. not baffling but just annoying for others trying to get involved in the conversation.

    Why dont i like the Day trader term? Generally “day traders” became all the rage refering to share BUYERS who then sold. Ironically now with inverse ETFs a day trader (buyer) could go short. I heard all sorts of stories of guys making tons by leveraging into the then Bull market – and i always said fair dues but what happens when the market turns? These people became share buying bores – a bit like BTLrs!! I dont mind but when someone wants to ram down your throat their success which (intentionally or not) sucks you in, or who lambasts you for being so stupid as to not participate then im a bit anti. Also i dont trade individual shares because things can be specific to a compny that goes counter trend against the market – i find THAT a scary thought.

    Incidentially which is why i liked one of your early blogs – some point based one where you tried to disuade everyone from trading, in your own style. I knew EXACTLY where you were coming from, and would agree, although I would encourage folks to have a go with a small account – really just to appreciate how difficult it is.

    I am equally comfortable and equally scared going long or short. As i said i dont take silly risks now – or sensible risks with silly size – as i used to. I don’t scalp either (ok well only on the Footsie now and again for an ego boost really).

    As you rightly said it’ll get you in the end – im acutely aware that i will take a bath at some stage – i have before and i will do again. It still annoys me to sell at the low or buy at the high – particularly when im stopped. But it doesnt annoy me as much as when i was a young(ish) red coat trying to follow paper.

    Have a good W/end – and i hope that neither of us have to MEW in the future (would be a bit difficult for me though – im sure the landlord might have something to say)!

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  • sorry flash just saw – im a 47 year old OINK.

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  • ship: been writing three books simultaneously for several years. I can’t seem to finish them but hopefully, if I dedicate all my time to it, they might finally see the light of day…I used to get a few bits and pieces published in my youth, so would like to revisit that but I have a fear that we get less interesting as time goes by. Have a good weekend

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  • techie: I hope you touch the stars and quit before the bastar*s get you. Thanks for your replies. You’ve dissuaded me from trading in my retirement, which is almost certainly a good thing. Have a good one

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  • I used to think LOL was Lots Of Love .
    I was so disappointed when I learned otherwise !!

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