Saturday, May 2, 2009

This time last year we were all millionhairs

Sunday, Apr 27, 2008 - BTL to the rescue

What a difference a year makes.......? Comeback Greenbay - see 15. "Sorry people but there will not be a crash, not even close". Just what the site was like when we did have the old BTL brigade members telling those who STR how stupid they were.... well stupid is as stupid does!

Posted by techieman @ 11:35 PM (1642 views)
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14 thoughts on “This time last year we were all millionhairs

  • Blimey techieman, Greenbay was a messiah and we ignored him.

    He clearly said this time next year properties will rise and he was right they did.

    Unfortunately Nationwide seasonally adjusted them dowm for him, but hey 😉

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  • Maybe in Wales where the bulk of his portfolio (supposedly) is held prices are still on the rise (LOL)

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  • This time next yeat will be even more interesting. I keep reading rubbish about how the market “is near the bottom”. Since I’ve just moved into another let (more for less rent) for a year, it will be really interesting to see. I think there will be a lessening of the trend, but another 15% this year plus – 5% 2010. I wonder….

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  • Tenyearstogetmymoneyback says:

    I love the comment at the end “But keep up the doom mongering guys its great for my purchasing power.”
    He should be really pleased with us.

    Back to growlers comment at 3.

    Does anyone else reckon rents might be dropping faster than prices ?
    I suppose liquidity is much higher. looking through Rightmove
    I reckon rents have dropped about 13% in the last six months.

    :- Duncan

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  • I used to read greenbays comments and think he knew what he was talking about , I used to think that I’d never be able to buy a home , thank goodness these greedy people are being proved wrong , they have destroyed this country , putting thousands of ordinary people under pressure financialy for years , I say good to the house price crash and may it continue for a lot longer 🙂

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  • Tenyearstogetmymoneyback says:

    Just been looking at the next postcode to me on Rightmove and am surprised at how many BTL portofolios are for sale
    e.g.

    Mitchells are pleased to offer for sale this portfolio of four two bedroom purpose built apartments all situated in the same block with the existing tenants currently on assured short hold tenancies

    and

    Guide Price £1,200,000
    Investment opportunity. A new purpose built block of 13 flats in total. Flats 7, 8 & 9 have been sold privately, leaving 9 x 1 bedroom flats and 1 x 2 bedroom flat available. The ten flats available are all let on short hold tenancies and currently producing £5,010.00 pcm.

    With a return of 4.1% I’m surprised it hasn’t been snapped up 🙂

    :- Duncan

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  • Good post. Its cheering to think that so many of those who thought that they would get rich off the graft of others, without actually contributing anything themselves, are receiving the comuppance they so richly deserve.

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  • Excellent post. I think we should have a regular series to remind us what b****cks Greenbay and his ilk were writing just a year or two ago. His expected capital gain of £25,000 from 2008-2013, without which his investment didn’t add up, looks like being a capital loss instead.

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  • mountain goat says:

    Greenbay was right about one thing, interest rates rises didnt happen, in fact Central Bank Socialism means his bank is probably paying him for the priviledge of owing a mortgage 🙁

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  • a couple of folks have added to the original thread on that thread – i didnt know you could do that so i have just suggested that they copy and paste their comments here.

    MG – Greenbay was also sort of right when he said the government wouldnt let there be a crash . They have clearly tried everything they can think of (and then some) to make Greenbay right. The fact that they have failed must have left Greenbay sickened and shocked.

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  • @mountain goat

    “Greenbay was right about one thing, interest rates rises didnt happen”

    Yet. In a sense, everybody with a variable rate mortgage is doing a high wire act; if we experience a gilt strike, the government may be forced to go to the IMF. The IMF standard prescription includes double digit interest rates. If I had a variable rate mortgage, I’d be thinking seriously about getting a fix now as insurance against a currency collapse.

    BTLers have positioned themselves quiet well in that the government has an interest in preventing a property price collapse but the government might lose control of interest rates. I’m not saying that this is a certainty – just that it’s a risk that I would not like to be carrying right now.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    @ Tenyears, comment 4. Rents will drift downwards ever so slightly, depending on average wages in each area (with a large knock down in areas with clear oversupply, e.g. central Manchester, Docklands in London etc), but not as fast as prices.

    Re interest rates, it is true that mortgages with low LTVs (60% or less) have ridiculously low interest rates (which may or may not benefit Greenbay, in which case good luck to him), but the marginal cost of borrowing an extra 15% (to make a 75% ltv) mortgage is an interest rate of about ten per cent and if you want to borrow 90% that extra 15% ltv chunk costs you an interest rate of around twenty per cent. This is simple maths.

    We will experience a gilt strike!! We have one already!! This week (according to figures somebody emailed me which I haven’t checked yet but he’s usually accurate) the amount of gilts issued was equal to the amount of gilts that the BoE bought back in under their QE shenanigans. So that’s a net issuance of … er … nothing at all.

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  • mark @ 12. The point was Greenbay – (according to him) never liquidated he just re-mortgaged to full value. [whatever that means]. And he was doing this right up to the date of that original post. So his LTVs are unlikely to be low. But of course its all speculation, he may have just been living in fantasy island though (is that angelsey?) or he may have been just trying to rub us “paupers” noses in it.

    Not really too fussed about him to be honest was just trying to illustrate how far we have come in a relatively short space of time.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    @ Techie, you are quite right to do a flashback; in another year’s time we can do another one of the people who are now shouting ‘HPC over, nothing to see here!’, until in a few years’ time the consensus is that prices will never ever rise again (at which they will start rising again, natch).

    To be fair to Greenbay and his ilk, I know other BTLers who are currently laughing all the way to the bank, what was a break even situation six months ago is now hugely cash positive if they were lucky enough to sign up for a tracker deal. Sure, they are running up capital losses, but house prices ‘always go up in the long run because we are a small island pent up demand immigration’, innit?

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