Thursday, April 30, 2009

UK House Prices Far From a Bottom

The UK House Price /Gold Ratio: Bricks vs. Bars

Top to bottom in the 1970s, house prices measured in gold lost four-fifths of their value all told..." BEWARE THE CLAMOR to call the bottom in house prices. Because with a tired predictability, the UK experience of seeing "green shoots" in every new survey says the global bust starting barely two years ago has a long way to run yet.

Posted by nadeem walayat @ 10:12 AM (980 views)
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8 thoughts on “UK House Prices Far From a Bottom

  • japanese uncle says:

    “House prices to recover next year” Nov. 1989
    “Recovery forecast for house prices in market awash with loan funds” Jan. 1990
    “The bottom of the current house-price cycle may have passed” July 1991
    “House-price surge on the way, but wait for it” Sept. 1991
    (All from The Times…)

    Says it all. The newspaper may be renamed as ‘Charlatan Times’

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  • general congreve says:

    Good article, very interesting way of looking at the situation.

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  • Derek Hoddinott says:

    What a load of rubbish.

    The market is already showing signs of “bottoming out”, there is a tremendous built up demand and lenders are starting to make things easier for buyers. I would suggest that prices will continue to fall slightly over the next two or three months, then flatten out and start to rise in the final quarter as confidence in the overall economy improves. Certainly house prices will be higher this time next year than they are now.

    Note also that in previous recessions house prices started to rise about 8/10 months after world stock markets did so and these have been rising since last November. I personally missed the bottom but invested everything I possibly could in December, I am now showing an average gain over seven different funds of 26%.

    Don’t miss the boat, buy now or risk being “gazumped” in a few months time!!

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  • Derek I hope your new job at the Times goes well

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  • yeah, ok derek.

    Please stick around – bulls often pitch up, make a single comment, and then are never heard of again – which annoys me as it pretty much invalidates their comments – they never stick around to justify anything they’ve said.

    If it’s all the same with you though, I think I’ll risk being gazumped.

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  • Derek, perhaps you could explain how that theory fits in with the rest of the economy falling apart.

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  • Derek,
    I think you are hoping like many vested interests. Be patient and you will be proved wrong. Shame that you do not understand finance. Perhaps you should have watched dispatches programme on Monday (Channel 4). You can watch it on “online” no doubt. Will Hutton knows what he is talking about. Did anybody else watch it if so please direct Derek directly.

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  • derek: lenders are not starting to make things easier for buyers and you haven’t made a 26% return on any fund since December.

    Rumblings in the bond market will lead to higher interest rates and unemployment is on an upward march. These are the only two things that should concern you when making house price predictions.

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