Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Spring Bounce

House sales 'jumped 40% in March'

"Even when the figures are adjusted for seasonal trends, they still show a rise from 54,000 to 61,000, a jump of 13%. " Why isn't 13% in your headline then Mr BBC.

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 07:22 AM (3222 views)
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14 thoughts on “Spring Bounce

  • “dead cat bounce” this was expected , check out the graph “DNA of a bubble” this is playing out exactly as predicted on house price crash , after this blip expect the crash to continue all the way to the bottom , and beyond , that’s when to buy , not now

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  • Sparky,

    A little bit more than a dead cat bounce – a false dawn that will draw out a few fools and impatient souls, before the inevitable returns.

    But, as you say, a characteristic of the crash that has long been predicted on this site.

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  • happy mondays says:

    Even the BBC are not painting a Rosy picture for the near future, sounds more like the last death roll, than a recovery…

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  • IMHO the government is painting a rosy picture of recovery. Billions are being pumped into knee jerk projects in a desparate attempt to retain control. Consultants employed by the government will make a lot of money giving advice. Things will look good for a short period as manipulation is exercised. Expect house prices to rise by a few percent over the next 4 months. But this can’t last.

    Sooner or later we have to repay these billion pound loans. Generations to come will have the interest and capital repayment burden which will hamper their growth.

    Rumours of a new bail-out of banks makes me think that a request to the IMF is not far away.

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  • ‘property sales worth at least £40K each’.

    I wonder how many properties are worth £40K. Flats in Devon start around £1750K so how have they valued their sales?

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  • Wow and on the day of the Labour government’s ‘last drink at the last chance saloon’ budget too.

    What a coincidence.

    will said…@ 5 “‘property sales worth at least £40K each’.” – ” wonder how many properties are worth £40K. Flats in Devon start around £1750K so how have they valued their sales?”

    Yes but miraculously, only 6 weeks ago, the entire residential property market in BLAENAU FFESTINIOG was snapped up in an orgy of property madness sparked by the sun coming out in the sad old town (7oo foot above sea level with the highest amount of constant cloud cover this side of the highlands).

    What an absolute shower this lying, cheating and spinning government is.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    To answer your question, probably for the same reason that they now focus on RPI again rather than CPI.

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  • The Mcglashan says:

    No no, an analysis of the figures in full tells a [i]very different story[/i].

    They’re all here:
    http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/survey_of_prop/val-40000-or-above.pdf

    Sales volumes (>£40,000) March.

    2006 = 134,000
    2007 = 141,000
    2008 = 83,000
    2009 = 60,000

    So, March sales volume in 2009 is 57% lower than the 2007 figure.
    This is a collapse, not a ‘jump’. It’s not even a dead cat bounce – the statistics show a similar uptick between feb and march most years…

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  • Regardless of the headline, isn’t an increase in transactions (yes transactions are not one-sided – there is a buyer as well as a seller) a Good Thing in terms of allowing the market to reach the bottom and eventually the fair value? An increase in transaction volumes certainly most often accompanies a change in a market’s price direction, but there certainly is little correlation in that causal direction, only in the inverse one; an increase in volumes may also occur due to an increase in momentum.

    Another great piece of spin^H^H^H^Hjournalism.

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  • 40% of zero is still zero

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  • reckon it’s time to buy personally. got to get on the ladder some time!

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  • All of the money will be repiad by the government through quantitative easing and massive inflation, the biggest stealth tax of all. Unless you have the balls to preserve your wealth in gold or other currencies, then owning a depreciating house paid for with bowworings in depreciating sterling might actually be better than having savings in depreciating sterling. In the last crash (90s), inflation didn’t really get that bad, yet it was enough to ensure that the nominal (£££) values didn’t really fall that much at all. It surpises me that not many people on this site seem to realise this, even now that the topic of conversation has moved on from simple housing crashes and has digressed into general apocalyptic economic and conspirecy theory discussion.

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  • little professor says:

    Great spot, Mcglashan

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  • landofconfusion says:

    12. Wake Up said…
    > All of the money will be repiad by the government through quantitative easing and massive inflation

    What really caused the last crash was the sky-high interest rates. People couldn’t afford the mortgages so house prices fell (as is evident on the graph on the home page). Quantitative Easing is not a solution unless interest rates are deliberately suppressed in the face of the massive inflation which naturally follows.

    And if that happens house prices will be the least of our concerns.

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