Monday, April 6, 2009
Plenty more of the HPC to go
Best bit of this from Roger Bootle: "The old joke about stockmarkets having forecast 10 of the last four recoveries remains apposite. And we've already seen at least three false stockmarket recoveries in the last year or so. True, this was the first up month for Nationwide house prices for 17 months. Even so, this does not assuredly mark the end of the slide. In the 1990s downturn, during the housing market's 74-month long downward trend from May 1989 to July 1995, there were 22 months in which house prices rose month on month. That's a rise roughly once every three months. Indeed, house prices rose in four consecutive months between July 1993 and October 1993, leaving them 2.4pc higher in October than they had been in June. But the downward trend then continued for another 21 months."