Wednesday, April 15, 2009

One for S2R1

Watch out this weekend

27 February 2007 is not a date that stands out. It is not indelibly imprinted on the minds of millions; it does not carry the pain or notoriety of 9-11; unlike 'Black Wednesday', it has not been nicknamed Nor, like 31 August 1997, The Day Diana Died, did it send a nation into mourning. Yet the repercussions of this day are, quite simply, enormous. They may be felt for decades, and possibly mark the beginning of the next Great Depression. For this was the day the greatest credit bubble in history peaked and popped. And one man predicted this turn as far back as the 1970s. He is Martin Armstrong. What's more, another one of his turn dates is coming this weekend …

Posted by flintster1994 @ 12:03 PM (4952 views)
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30 thoughts on “One for S2R1

  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
    Sorry – I just had my Harry met Sally moment.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    The best quotes of the article

    “Looking back at centuries of economic data, Armstrong identified a long-term business cycle of 309.6 years, which is broken down into six waves of 51.6 years – roughly the same duration as Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev ‘s more famous cycle.”

    “Could it signal the long-awaited end of the US bond market?”

    IMHO this turning point is the movement from a deflationary outlook to an inflationary outlook. It is also the point where we wave goodbye to the 8.6 year PI cycle and say hello to the 8.6 monthly internal cycle as identified by Armstrong in his “its just time” article

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  • general congreve says:

    Armstrong’s model fits the historic data so far pretty well, but it’s easy to model the past, not the future. The Black Swan details the problems with the reliability of this sort of predictive model very well.

    That said I hope he’s right and that the bond market collapses, the dollar gets kicked into touch and that the price of gold is finally launched into the stratsosphere. I’ve got my retirement planned for next year, not 10 years time, so come on US dollar, roll over and die, NOW!

    Gordon or Gold?

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  • In electronics we have the Phase Lock Loop (PLL). this locks onto FM radio signals by syncing onto them.

    Maybe in economics wave theories are the signal, and the effect of a large number of people observing this signal ‘locks’ factors of the economy onto them… ie if something’s going to change direction, it will more likely happen around these pre-marked dates, through syncronisation of the buys & sells.

    Just an idea.

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  • Can someone explain to me why PI * 1000 days is significant? Invoking PI in any equation would suggest some sort of universal law, which can be applied to any planet in any solar system anywhere in the universe. Therefore one would expect the duration of any business cycle to be dependent upon the sidereal rotation period of the planet.

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  • where is FLASHMAN?!
    Too busy preparing for the turning?

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  • I don’t understand how this theory works. I also don’t understand how Bernie Madoff’s fund makes money.

    Moral: blindly trusting theories without either understanding them or seeing how they work can lose you money.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    rickyb,

    “Invoking PI in any equation would suggest some sort of universal law, which can be applied to any planet in any solar system anywhere in the universe.”

    Exactly. Or indeed any other universe within the multi-verse system that exists within the tenth dimension.

    PI cycles, K-waves, Elliott waves, Spengler cycles, Harry Dent’s 29-30 year commodity cycle, Fred Harrison’s 18 year land price cycle, Calleman’s Mayan Calendar model, Rob Bryanton’s tenth dimension are all tiny windows in to the nature of reality we live in.

    Of course when viewed individually they can give many false signals, but when they are taken together they can form a Unified Cycle Theory UCT (©) that is incredibly powerful indeed.

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  • I think what S2R1 is trying to say is that if you look at enough theories, sooner or later one of them will hit the nail on the head.

    Which is about as much use as just guessing IMO.

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  • mountain goat says:

    in terms of a change in expectation on Inflation/deflation – from the today’s Guardian: US economy goes back to 1955 as deflation returns “The US consumer price index fell at an annual rate of 0.4% in March, the first decline since 1955, figures from the US Labour Department showed today. It was bigger than the 0.1% drop expected by economists. ‘The notion that inflation will pick up in the near-term is completely out of the picture,”‘ said one analyst”

    So maybe the Armstrong turning point is that finally inflation is finished. Long may it retreat, good only for lenders and people in debt.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    I published this back in January

    13 February 2009 (Sputnik satellite launched – mapped from October 1957)
    2 April 2009 (The contraceptive Pill invented – mapped to May 9, 1960)
    19 April 2009 (Silicon Chip “unitary circuit” patent awarded – mapped to 25 April 1961
    19 April 2009 (Martin Armstrong PI cycle – high)
    19 April 2009 (Bay of Pigs – mapped to mid April 1961)
    25 April 2009 (Berlin wall construction started – mapped to August 17 1961)
    17 May 2009 (Cuban missile crisis – mapped to October 27 1962)
    5 June 2009 (JKF shot – mapped to 22 November 1963)
    19 June 2009 (Gulf of Tonkin incident – mapped to August 1964)
    5 July 2009 (200,000 U.S. troops to Vietnam – mapped to July 1965)
    8 August 2009 (6 day war – mapped to June 1967)
    21 August 2009 (Vietnam launched the Tet offensive – mapped to Jan. 31, 1968)

    It shows that the PI cycle high maps to mid April 1961 where the golden era of the late 1950s gives way to the cold war of the 1960s.
    Expect an East-West clash on many fronts between now and late August.

    The Bay of Pigs and Berlin Wall incidents take place within Obama’s first 100 days which is being peddled as significant by Sky News.

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  • The Armstrong cycle seems impressing. Nowadays don’t overlook the robotic law, all prices ie the markets dance to a computer and that computer has a programme.

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  • george monsoon says:

    My horoscope tells me that myself and a 12th of the rest of the population of the earth (approx 500 million people) will all receive an unexpected call from an old friend today… wow!

    I have a theory about the Mayan callendar.. that in December 2012.. the calendar will reset and I will still need to go for a pee the following moring.. the sun will still rise, the world will still turn, and my boss will still be as spiritually aware of other people as my doormat.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    mountain goat,

    The deflation seen in 1955 turned to inflation by the 1970s.
    As I keep saying change is happenng 20 times faster now so we could easily see raging inflation in 2010.

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  • mountain goat says:

    S2R1 – that is possible yes, the report today is deflation of the past month and statistics tend to lag behind reality. This may turn around from now, but as I have said here before I think it is deflation from here on.

    I like the recent thoughts by Prof Antal Fakete expressed on Market Oracle in which he points out that in 2006 there was a watershed when the productivity of debt turned negative. i.e. now debt creation shrinks the economy. So if this is true then inflation is impossible. This is because contrary to what is implied by “printing money” actually the Fed and BoE cannot just print money from thin air, they must first post collateral (with the Federal Reserve Agent in the case of the US). This is why they are buying bonds and toxic bonds with the printed money. These actions allow toxic debt to be maintained and not destroyed by default. Because of this debt levels are not falling and inflation is no longer possible since the economy must contract.

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  • george monsoon says:

    My point in the earlier post is that you can bend, fit, alter, interpret almost any prediction to fit a given scenario. If I was to believe any prediction, my belief would be based on hard facts rather than percieved truths (there is a difference).

    I am not learned in the ways of the financial market, but from a laymans perspective the way the financial market works is a bit like the weather… although you can sometimes accurately predict what is going to happen tomorrow, it becomes ever more unreliable the further into the future you go..

    I think it is the same with almost any aspect of human existance, because as an individual, I often surprise myself, so as a human race, surely the chaos theory is more prevalent..

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  • general congreve says:

    @14

    It’s all very interesting as to where this will go, personally I’m betting on inflation. I await the next couple of months CPI figures with baited breath, we will know soon.

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  • S2R1 – PI will only be relevant only to our universe (7th dimension?) but wouldn’t be applicable to other universes – as their laws are different from our own (i.e. the laws of gravity, speed of light, and assumedly PI)

    I think that’s right..?

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  • george monsoon says:

    I think I must be living in a different dimension to you guys…

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  • lol

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  • watchman
    What I’d like to know is how Martin Armstrong defines a day. Is it the period of a planet’s rotation, or is it based on the sun’s day/night cycles, in which case presumably the earth’s polar regions would have longer business cycles than those outside the polar regions. An added complication is that gas giant planets such as Jupiter have different rotational speeds depending on where you are on the planet, which would make predictions based upon rotation period quite complicated for any travelling gaseous life forms. There are also likely to be planets which keep one side always faced towards their sun, which presumably have no business cycles at all.

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  • shipbuilder says:

    Isn’t there a bit in most daily papers that tells the reader what significant events happened that day, 10, 20, 30 etc. years ago? In other words, aren’t there significant events every day? Indeed, who is to say what is significant, except in retrospect? What’s happened since the last Armstrong trough that makes this as a peak? I haven’t really seen much in the way of good news, we’ve seen neither notable deflation nor inflation. I’m not sure about gold or the stock markets. What does this model represent? Can we see a graph of any other indicator that it corresponds with? If cycles are only really clear in retrospect, then what use are they? How are they any better than a random guess? Didn’t the Black Swan point out that actually, they aren’t?

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  • rickyb

    I think Martin Armstrong is just concerned with business cycles and financial/social related ideas, I’ve never seen him write anything about planetary stuff

    I was just bantering with a few bits and pieces I’ve seen on the net, no expert on it… just happened to join in with my two pence worth and think I was a bit out of my depth lol

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  • general congreve says:

    @21 Shipbuilder – “Can we see a graph of any other indicator that it corresponds with? If cycles are only really clear in retrospect, then what use are they? How are they any better than a random guess? Didn’t the Black Swan point out that actually, they aren’t?”

    I believe Armstrong’s model is one of the level of business confidence. On that basis it would be correct at the moment, as it seems the crash has paused for breath and everyone (who isn’t on here anyway) seems to think the worst is over, green shoots, baa baa etc.

    Whether his model is some super insightful universal truth or just a happy coincidence (I’m going with the latter), I’m pretty sure that post April 19th is going to bring us much more bad news regardless. I think we’re just coming up to the largest drop on the roller coaster.

    Gordon or Gold?

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Hang about here, some of these cycles are pretty much beyond dispute as reliable forecasters (Fred Harrison’s 18 years, Kondratieff’s cycles) the others that STR1 mentions may or may not be reliable (I can’t say one way or another) and there is some theory somewhere with Fibonacci numbers that seems to work (AFAIAA)but the article says that this is a turning point, without saying up or down. How do we know that bonds will crash and gold will soar? Not everything can crash simultaneously, something has to go up relative to the others.

    So, are we now going short of government bonds or long of government bonds (I actually genuinely want to know this!!) if I follow the advice and it is wrong then I am a fool, and if it is right, then I owe you a pat on the back/beer etc.

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  • ah in search of the theory of everything yet again….funny though to imagine dodgy deals down the spaceship yard in pluto, or what about the hyper inflated stocks n shares of saturns rings, maybe a prophet or did i mean profit, now we are universe.spacestation,crash.earth.uk

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  • drewster @6 and GM @12

    I totally agree with the sentiment of your posts chaps.

    However, I personally think that if this end of a pi cycle then on Monday April 20 we will be asking “who ate all the pi(e)s”

    Seriously though, I think this theory is tosh. Whilst I accept that you can learn from history, I think it is wrong to make investment decisions made on patterns such as this.

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  • Bravo Monsoon. I agree with you entirely.
    Psudo science. Start with a belief (that randomness can be predicted) and then seek to selectively accept data that supports your belief and selectively reject data that disagrees with it. Associate with people who do likewise and you can reinforce your beliefs and can comfort yourself that the unpredictable is in fact predictable, thus feeling slightly safer in a random universe.

    Each to their own. But this kind of stuff has more to do with a person’s psychological needs vs objective reality.

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  • What bothers me most is that this analysis is based on PI*1000. The number 1000 is only of significance in base-10 systems; and base-10 was chosen primarily because humans have ten fingers and toes. PI is a universal constant, but there’s nothing universal about 10. More importantly, there’s no reason why PI or 1000 should have any bearing on the stockmarket. I have a lot of respect for the columnists at MoneyWeek and I like how they push the boat out and cite oddball theories, but this one is plain wrong.

    Here’s a better analysis of why the markets are looking dangerously toppy and overdue another correction (downwards). This one actually contains hard numbers and facts:

    Mish’s: Goodbye to the Rally
    “I see pretty rampant optimism in equity options, general belief that we have turned the economic corner (I highly doubt we have), technically overbought indicators, euphoria on CNBC, and a selloff for whatever reason on supposedly good news. While the market could continue to rally, this is certainly not a good mix.”

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  • general congreve says:

    Mark Wadsworth @ 24

    I’ve read an article on this (google Armstrong turning point), and the turn is supposed to be down, head first, so I’m pretty sure it’ll be bonds/dollar/markets down, gold/silver up, as we’re talking about business confidence/sentiment with the Armstrong model.

    However, as I said in an earlier post, I don’t actually buy into all this modelling stuff, I’m with the Naseem Taleb/Black Swan school on that front. However, I do agree with Drewster @ 26. We are due a big market correction as there’s no way we’re out of this mess yet. So it may well be that Armstrong gets lucky with his model and it fits nicely in the coming days, weeks, months, years. In fact, UBS announced bit write downs of 1.75 billion dollars today, I have a feeling this will be the beginning of the end, as there are a lot of company earnings reports due out soon and I’m sure they’ll make horrific, market shaking, reading.

    Gordon or Gold?

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