Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Yes suicidal for your BTL portfolios maybe

3x times lending will be suicidal say experts

The wording has changed since yesterday !

Posted by str 2007 @ 09:38 AM (3351 views)
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77 thoughts on “Yes suicidal for your BTL portfolios maybe

  • I think the implications have started to dawn on the ‘property experts’ and ‘property developers’ that this is the kybosh to their dreams of getting rich for sitting on their arses.

    If Downing Street is also keen on getting a multiple implemented, it really is only a matter of time. I suspect this is the FSA trying to reassert their new found responsibility. Now that the property get-rich-quick scheme is decimated, why not call time on it?

    Why pander to the vested interests anymore when their model is broken, and they are mostly bankrupt?

    As Will Shakespeare said

    Let Hercules himself do what he may,
    The cat will mew and dog will have his day.

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  • japanese uncle says:

    I seem to remeber there was a couple who borrowed one million pounds on interest only basis, to maintain their BTL ’empire’ . What has become of them? Also Sayara the famous BTLer?

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  • Sue Anderson at the Council of Mortgage Lending (CML), said:
    Richard Morea, at London & Country mortgage brokers, said:
    Melanie Bien, at mortgage broker Savills said:

    Look at the addicts bleating about restrictions on their drug.

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  • The article “states” that 3x salary mortgages will be suicidal but doesn’t actually say why. What it does mention is that this would drive prices down even further. I have no problem with that – as I say to EA’s, is there any good reason why we should spend such a huge fraction of our incomes on houses when it would be better to have some money to actually enjoy life doing things?…

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  • A complete change of words from yesterdauys article.

    It is now a suggestion. Makes me quite cross really that they can’t report it correctly in the first place.

    Interesting to see the agents etc. think it will stagnate the market when in actual fact it will have the opposite effect.

    It would put a clear line under values and vendors would quickly accept that 2003-2007 prices were simply a bubble created for the finance industry to make the young poorer.

    House prices will quickly re-adjust if this is implemented.

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  • mym

    Absolutely. Commercially all these people would gain from an increase in turnover once prices had quickly corrected.

    Next to each of their names should also be their personal interest (ie size of BTL portfolio). Then you could draw a conclusion as to how important their opinion is.

    JU

    Haven’t heard about the Maths teacher and her husband Fergus and their attempts to sell their BTL empire that was built on the fact house prices only ever go up.

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    Folks I actually can’t see this limit being imposed at all. Wishful thinking I’m afraid as the forces against it are overwhelming. Expect the terms to be heavily watered down – just like HIPs.

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  • If people had only 3x mortgages imagine how much more they would have to spend in the shops and on holidays and any number of other things. The problem with the economy is that a good percentage of the population has their wealth tied up in something that just sits there.
    The banks have made all the money, coming in, disappear as if by magic and there’s nothing left to keep the economy going. I own a house, but i worry for my children, so i ask the government do something sensible and make it law to only be allowed to borrow 3x income.

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  • @ paul 9:45

    “The cat will MEW…”

    Sounds like irresponsible lending to pets to me!

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  • Does the FSA have the legal authority to impose something like this?

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  • tyrell

    Yes I’m afraid you may be right. It wasn’t reported well yesterday and I fell for it. Should of realised it wasn’t a BBC article.

    However there has been a significant change at HSBC in the last couple of months and they are now insisting a repayment vehicle is in place for an interest only mortgage.
    That makes a big difference as people now have to look at the actual repayment option instead of kidding themselves that they will have a £500 a month mortgage and pay it off when things pick up.
    I don’t know how many other lenders are moving away from IO mortgages.

    Also HSBC would offer 3.5 times joint (based on 40% down) so the truth is I don’t expect any other lenders out their will lend any more than 3×1 + 1×1 with only a 10-15% deposit anyway.

    I think it would be good to wake vendors up if the 3x limit was introduced.

    It would close the gap quickly between available money (fact) and current asking prices (fiction).

    It’s needed and the Estate Agent industry should wake up to the benefit to them.

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  • Not a peep from the BBC on this.

    Should think they’re still reeling from the suggestion that their news editors’ BTL get rich quick schemes might turn to dust.

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  • The main argument against this yesterday seemed to be that the government would never kill their cash cow. However I think their cash cow is already dead, if things continue as they are – we are looking at a slow decline of years, which is the worst case scenario as far as they are concerned. The only real way to get prices rising again soon with all the ‘benefits’ that brings to the economy etc. is to collapse them to a low level as quickly as possible and get the buyers back, meanwhile protecting the banks from the subsequent devaluation of their assets until inflation can be upped and the debt got rid of.

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  • Lukeskywalker says:

    “Anything that limits consumer choice is now what we need right now, especially for first time buyers. They are not well served by the mortgage market, as it is.”

    FTBs are not well served by the mortgage market. Ah, so that’s what it is. There I was, silly me, thinking that property prices had been pumped out of their reach, when all they really need is a 6x mortgage. And 7x next year, 8 the year after…

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    To the extent that we can give this story any credence whatsoever, I think Shipbuilder has explained the thinking correctly.

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    @Shipbuilder. Even a quick collapse will take a couple of years which will take any bounce beyond the next general election. A quick collapse isn’t really manageable either. Considering this news wasn’t widely reported I reckon it’s not going to happen.

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  • shipbuilder

    True, as I said along time ago (12-18 months) they need to find the bottom quickly. That’ll be far better for everyone, even estate agents.

    It’ll be good for BTLers aswell as they’ll be able to add to their portfolios as they’re in it for the long term. Fnar Fnar !

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  • Vested interested parties are bound to shout down these proposals. Have the Telegraph stopped to ask First Time Buyers what they think about the scheme? I think that their views would be somewhat different.

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  • Given the timidity of govts in enacting policies that make a real difference, I imagine it is unlikely that anything like this would be introduced, unless of course the economic situation continues to decline. If things get bad enough we could all sorts of changes to the “free market”.

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  • Deciphermonkey says:

    If this mortgage lending cap was introduced, although far too late, it would certainly be a big step in the right direct. I do find it exceptionally hard to believe that it will be introduced though since our self-interested government has so far just made mistake after mistake. I don’t believe a word of it but we will see before the end of the week apparently.

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    Melanie Bien, at mortgage broker Savills, said: “Prices will have to come down even further for first time buyers to afford a property.”

    Perish the thought eh Melanie… what a marvellous quote.

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  • phdinbubbles says:

    Agree with tyrellcorporation
    A quick 2 year collapse rather than 4-6 years aint gonna help the govt get re-elected.

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  • happy mondays says:

    To force or allow prices to drop, would naff off a fare amount of people, i know of at least 6 couples that have bought since 2007, i suppose they will be seen as casualties of the financial downturn..

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  • I am getting the early signs of real panic here……..AT LAST, THE CRUEL TWIST OF FATE!

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  • will

    Agree with what you’re saying – FTB’s benefitting anyway.

    I’m not sure though that the general public make the direct connection with available ratio and house prices. I think they put the cart before the horse so to speak and think of 4 or 5 x income as something that allows them to be able to afford a home.

    That is why this policy could work, because the voters will see it as sensible policing of the system not the fact that it will reduce prices quickly to sustainable levels.

    So the you may in actual fact get complaints from FTB’s thinking they’ll never be able to afford and support from retirees who’s mindset is perhaps more prudent and can associate this policy with what they were offered as new home owners.

    And instead of kicking and screaming Estate Agents should use their brains (ah the problem) and adopt these new proposals with vigor as they can re-price their stock based on the new FSA rules and then get it sold.

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    Crunchy, we’re all living in hope but my gut feeling tells me Bottler Brown will, er, bottle it!

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  • stillthinking says:

    I think shipbuilder is right. The real benefit would be a quick collapse. A long drawn out slow collapse is to be avoided. Certainly its true that this is only an announcement and the government have steered clear without even commenting, even so, as a threat alone this pushes prices down i.e. sell now before mortgage restrictions come into force.
    That aside, what about the governments structural deficit? The tax revenue that they have enjoyed won’t be coming back without the restoration of rising debt, and expenditure is rapidly rising. At the moment the government are in a position that they can at least attempt to help the economy, but what will happen when their position has deteriorated to the extent the all hands to the pump to maintain UK government fiscal credibility.
    At that point the economy will be on it’s own. For all the bad news and the time that has passed since the 2007 peak, things are really only just starting in the UK. Defaults, whether commercial or residential property, are just getting going, the attitude towards gilts while rosy, has nowhere to go but down…et al.

    Also average salary is taken to mean average salary of those in employment, with some adjustment for part-time workers. This isn’t what faces the housing market. There will be more than 3 million unemployed in the private sector, and that looks optimistic. The average salary must take into account the unemployed, because houses don’t disappear as employment rises.
    If you like, cumulative salaries are dropping rapidly against cumulative housing stock.

    As usual, people are distracted from the grotesque size of the state sector, and the refusal to do the obvious, cut state spending and taxes.

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  • Why has no one considered that this legislation will have very little effect on house prices? We already have mortgage lending of 3 x salary so why will legislating something that is all ready a reality have any effect?

    Only when unemployment reaches 3 million and mortgage rates reach >8% will we see a proper collapse

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    STR2007. “And instead of kicking and screaming Estate Agents should use their brains (ah the problem) and adopt these new proposals with vigor as they can re-price their stock based on the new FSA rules and then get it sold.”

    This amazes me too. Surely having a good turnover is vital to EAs rather than being able to sell one house a month with a larger margin. Low sales volumes will kill estate agents stone dead. Odd behaviour but I guess they are just stuck in a mindset where when houses sold themselves and they could strap on their thick ties and large it around the place in shiny new Minis.

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  • 22. tyrellcorporation

    Brown is F,,,,,, It’s out of he’s grubby hands now. The rabbit has ran. The trick bag is empty.

    Join the long list Brown!

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    Flashman I believe this legislation does/would have a significant effect on house prices because it kills off the speculation driver which was found in every participant of the boom. Owners borrowed more, lenders leant more. If you’re capped at 3x neither of these would have happened. Snuffing out this speculative element would mean the chance of making a killing in the future simply isn’t there, you’re strapped to real income growth – wages + other traditional investments.

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  • This looks like somebody well-placed has leaked this -to get the retaliation in first.With or without these compulsory ratios, the banks are probably going to carry on building up their capital bases and not lending as much as the Guv wants ( into a falling market).

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  • 22. tyrellcorporation

    That would require estate agents to work collectively instead of trying to cut each others throats.

    The blood bath will leave few survivers!

    On another note………Things are really heating up now. I can feel it. : ) , : ( .

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  • flashman

    ”Why has no one considered that this legislation will have very little effect on house prices? We already have mortgage lending of 3 x salary so why will legislating something that is all ready a reality have any effect? ”

    I have already considered this and it’s my opinion that this legislation is needed to wake up the sellers and get the gap closed. At present sellers are sitting there with unrealistic asking prices, hoping a fool will come along with a huge Interest Only mortgage. The estate agents are almost as bad.

    This legislation won’t change the outcome, just get us there alot quicker IMO. The dream of a recovery at these levels needs to be killed stone dead before it kills us.

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  • tyrell: As you say there is a speculation driver and this may have some effect. However the 3 X multiple has been in place for at least 9 months and is well known to prospective buyers. I therefore think that the announcement of this possible legislation can have only a small effect. I thought about this thing for hours last night and was hit by a revelation that the Govt. has thought this one out. They know full well that it is already in place so the further harm to property prices will probably be limited. By imposing this legislation they look like they are taking the moral high road, despite the harm it might do to their fiscal plans. A magnificent double bluff.

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  • The sellers/agents have not been tested yet. History always repeats itself. They WILL crack just as they have always done.

    No exceptions.

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  • waitingfor hpc says:

    i had an agent refuse to show me round a house in Essex as he said i make stupid offers which were well below the house value … location in Chelmsford not to name and shame. I am a cash buyer with 400K in the bank … and he let me put the phone down knowing this!!!

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  • I hope the FSA stick with it. Once they declarre “recommendations” – even if they are not laws, it will make it very risky for companies to go beyond these recommendations and still be held responsible. Imagine you’re a buyer, you’ve been sold something over and above the FSA advice. Right now, your defence that the lender was acting negligently is weak. In the future, you could prove that you were missold the mortgage.

    We have allowed rampant over selling of debt and need to learn the lesson. Once the inflated prices are removed, we’ll have done the people in the country a great service to get the madness back to some sort of reality rather than never-neverland where it was in 2007.

    It’s the right move (ho ho – couldn’t resist the irony) and long overdue.

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  • str 2007: “it’s my opinion that this legislation is needed to wake up the sellers and get the gap closed”.

    This may well be a welcome consequence but I don’t imagine the government thinks like this. Mind you, I have often suspected that Sara Brown is in fact troy and she is waiting for prices to come down before purchasing her dream pad in Clacton

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    Flashman, I hope you’re right and this IS them thinking they are being clever. Over the last few years I have got tired listening to colleagues saying ‘what the heck if I’m making a loss on my BTL in terms of rent, my capital growth will mean I’m a millionaire in a few years.’ their whole argument was based on ponzi-scheme economics – a classic market bubble driven by unrestricted credit. This legeslation, if it goes ahead, will finally pour cold water on the whole phenomenon. It’s just a shame it’s 10 years too late.

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  • Yes i think that’s it growler (although of course shipbuilder’s argument is the nub of the issue).

    The FSA always makes recommendations – but they are rarely regarded purely as recommendations by the financial community – they are treated more like warnings of liability.

    The key is deciding the legitimacy of the defense that you were mis-sold your mortgage.

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  • tyrell: yes I hope so too. It is important to remember though that house prices were not just driven by unrestricted credit. Low unemployment and interest rates played a role, as did the enduring British love affair with property. Anyone who has an obsessive hobby will understand how powerful the urge is to buy stuff, no mater how illogical.

    The government and their researchers may be offensive in every way but it is dangerous to underestimate their intelligence and cunning. They are cu*ts to a man but they are not stupid

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  • I think everyone is missing the point of the intention to controll mortgage lending – it isnt to reduce the price of houses it is to ensure that we never face a credit crisis ever again due to bad debt.

    Yes – house prices will lower, but this is a natural by-product of the number and ammount of mortgages that are available.

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  • This new 3x salary law wouldn’t have anything to do with the fact that the govmnt is expecting a sharp rise in interest rates and tax in the future would it ? Just a thought.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    Most of you guys just don’t get it.
    This boom and now bust has been planned for decades (since gold was detached from the USD)

    There will be many so called “blunders” by policy makers over the next 12 months.
    The politicians are not fools though. They are just following orders.

    Is it time for a revolution?
    Not yet?
    OK, more destruction please.
    The “sixth night” starts in Nov 2009 and lasts for 12 months.
    This will make the “fifth night” look like a picnic

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    … I’m sure I heard a clap of thunder then!

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  • sold 2 rent 1:

    spot on!

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  • Oh dear! It was all going so well.

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  • happy mondays says:

    sold 2 rent 1 said…The politicians are not fools though. They are just following orders.From who? I understand the mayan calender to a certain level, but i don’t think they mention who is in control, neither did Ian Lungold as far as i know!

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  • All arrows are pointing in the same direction.

    The pincer movement is coming will it be ours or there’s?

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  • People on this site should be patient, property prices do not drop overnight.It took nearly 7 years to get to 2007 highs and it is going to take years before it bottoms out. I think it will never go back to the 1997 levels but I expect the Nationwide House Index to drop to around £125000 over the next 3 years and then it will stay at that level for many years. Therefore a first timer may be lucky to pick up a starter home in the region of say £105000 give or take £10000. To make this purchase the buyer would probably be earning £20000 ie. £20000 x 3.5 = £70000 + 30000 (Deposit) = £10000. This means that the market may not start moving for another 5 years staying at the bottom while the FTB will have to start saving by living with their parents etc. Obviously a joint borrower could borrow more. IMO FTB’s property may bottom out at around £100000.

    Be patient everyone and do not get upset by the comments made by various Vested Interest Groups. The market always finds it’s level.

    Also FSA can only advise the lenders but the if the advise is not taken then the lenders cannot ask to be bailed out if they get into trouble. This will be the case of I told you so but you did not listen and therefore we cannot help you. I am being naive on this. But in the real this is how it should work but time will tell.

    Any opinions on this.

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  • Thank you for your comments. People on this site should be patient, property prices do not drop overnight.It took nearly 7 years to get to 2007 highs and it is going to take years before it bottoms out. I think it will never go back to the 1997 levels but I expect the Nationwide House Index to drop to around £125000 over the next 3 years and then it will stay at that level for many years. Therefore a first timer may be lucky to pick up a starter home in the region of say £105000 give or take £10000. To make this purchase the buyer would probably be earning £20000 ie. £20000 x 3.5 = £70000 + 30000 (Deposit) = £10000. This means that the market may not start moving for another 5 years staying at the bottom while the FTB will have to start saving by living with their parents etc. Obviously a joint borrower could borrow more. IMO FTB’s property may bottom out at around £100000.

    Be patient everyone and do not get upset by the comments made by various Vested Interest Groups. The market always finds it’s level.

    Also FSA can only advise the lenders but the if the advise is not taken then the lenders cannot ask to be bailed out if they get into trouble. This will be the case of I told you so but you did not listen and therefore we cannot help you. I am being naive on this. But in the real this is how it should work but time will tell.

    Any opinions on this.

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  • 30. flashman said…

    “However the 3 X multiple has been in place for at least 9 months and is well known to prospective buyers.”

    Unfortunately prospective sellers still have their heads in the sand as they hang on to the belief that the recovery is just around the corner. The real difference if this happens is that they can’t deny what is happening anymore.

    S2R1 – Anyone who takes such a roundabout method to achieve their goals is quite clearly a fool. Anyone who believes that they are capable of achieving such an exercise is a bigger fool.

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  • 43. house

    Makes sense, but I don’t agree. It’s hard to imagine but I think this will be the fastest crash ever. It’s imposible for the banks to finance mortgages at these levels now. The pivotal point will lay on the shoulders of sellers and agents when the panic let’s rip.

    Problem, REACTION, solution.

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  • happy mondays says:

    crunchy said…Problem, REACTION, solution. Sounds like David Icke…Maybe his to blame for this whole mess?

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    @ House, Crunchy

    This has been the fastest crash ever, nominal down 18% in less than a year and a half – a process that took five years in the early nineties (OK, inflation was higher then, let’s not quibble).

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  • Property experts who brought the country to its knees?
    Banks, estate agents and sellers in general have succesfully manipulated the market but it prooved that working people could have not kept up with higer house prices so 3.5 rule is crucial in preventing a next buble.

    Banks learnt the lesson after the loses they made but estate egents are still in the bubling business.

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  • waitingfor hpc said… “i had an agent refuse to show me round a house…” –
    Well, he’ll last a long time!

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  • tisk, tisk, “prices will have to come down further for first time buyers to affort a house”. How sad.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    happy mondays,

    “They are just following orders.From who?”

    A very good question. IMHO the pyramid structure will continue to get higher and higher as we head into the consciousness singularity. As global consciousness/change accelerates each top of the pyramid will be unveiled as a patsy (currently Obama) and a new level above will emerge. Just how many times this will happen is anyone’s guess.

    This is a race for global enlightenment/tenth dimension so anything can and probably will be possible.

    Imagining the Tenth dimension
    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-97057222894136590

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    shipbuilder,

    “Anyone who takes such a roundabout method to achieve their goals is quite clearly a fool. Anyone who believes that they are capable of achieving such an exercise is a bigger fool”

    The men in power will be successful in crashing the world economy – but that is exactly what we need for the masses to have a revolution to remove corrupt governments and corporations and to move to a world of free energy for everyone.

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  • 46. happy mondays

    I am David Ike!

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    mark wadsworth,

    “This has been the fastest crash ever”

    As I keep saying, change is going to get faster and faster as it appears the whole economy is spiralling out of control.
    Change is happening 20 times faster than in 1960. And it will be 20 times faster again by 2011.

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  • The article is a Telegraph leader, saying what a bad idea capping is. Trying reading the comments – presumably from Telegraph readers – though as you’ll see something very interesting. Most of them are dissenting from the Editorial, saying that such a cap is a good idea in the longer term. “More pain now, but better to establish a sustainable housing market” seems to be the comments there. Now, unless, hpcers have been jumping in to overwhelm the natural voices of the Telegraph (not inconceivable!) this is a very interesting development.

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  • 46. happy mondays

    How was your breakfast? (in joke) ; )

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  • bidin'matime says:

    Gordon Mugabe wants inflation – timing of entry into the housing market will be crucial over the next three to five years. Just keep an eye on QE. Dont forget that £150n translates to £1.5trnin circulation. And if that doesnt work, they’ve promised QE2. Then QE3? And I don’t mean the ships…

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  • If the goverment allows this to happen and house prices fall by the predicted 30-40%, all that will happen is anybody (with sense) who has bought in the last few years will just hand in their keys to the mortgage company and then where will we be? credit crunch part 2???

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  • s2r1: like the video, great sound effects 🙂

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  • Happy Mondays says:

    @ Crunchy , the wheta bez was lovely, thanks Dave..

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  • happy mondays says:

    @ Crunchy, The Wheata bez was lovely, thanks Dave..

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  • @45 Crunchy & @47 Mark

    I was only trying to be pragmatic and looking at things from a point of view of hope but I do not disagree what you have said and I myself can see it worse than what I have stated previously but are the authorities going to allow it to happen or are they going to reflate very quickly as someone suggesting QE2, QE3 and on until the inflation takes care of it. But in the short term times are going to be tough. I am sure we can discuss the consequences of QE (Inflation, Higher Interest Rates) but ordinary people out there do not understand the concept of it and VI’s basically do not want to understand it as it scares them.

    What do you think ?

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    watchman,

    Now read the book and look at the forum
    http://www.tenthdimension.com/phpbb/index.php

    (Ian Lungold, 2012, Mayan Calendar, dark matter, consciousness all get discussed in the “The philosophical/spiritual implications” section)
    Keep joining the dots.

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  • Fundamentals is fundamentals. If they had control of this bubble to the upside we would not be where we are now.

    Were going down and it will be nasty. Keep your powder dry and things will be alot easier.

    Look at ALL indicators to gadge the bottom. Not just the stock market!

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  • waitingfor hpc said… “i had an agent refuse to show me round a house…” –

    suggest you keep an eye on the property he refused to show you, and when it sells for less than you were offering, call the seller and suggest they sue th estate agent. At the very least it is extremely bad practise for an EA not to pass info on an offer to the seller – if not illegal.

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  • Some sellers will state a guide price they will not accept. Cocky estate agent, for now.

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  • I think I remember right that many though this crash woudl be a slow crash to develop. I’ve always thought that with the world wired up so much better than ever before, the bull we’d normally have to endure in the andrex press is pretty much marginalised as soon as it’s printed.

    It takes no time or effort for people to see all too plainly, and simply, that no manner of VI ramping will turn around the rocket accelerating back to Earth with a loud, expensive crash.

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  • Bidinmarime said “Gordon Mugabe wants inflation – timing of entry into the housing market will be crucial over the next three to five years. Just keep an eye on QE. Dont forget that £150n translates to £1.5trnin circulation. And if that doesnt work, they’ve promised QE2. Then QE3? And I don’t mean the ships…”

    spot on mate, as always timing is key

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