Sunday, March 15, 2009

Rampant ramping

The Englishman's castle in ruins

Mr Pidgley, CEO of Berkeley, says that the housing market "is somewhere along the bottom" of its economic cycle, meaning prices shouldn't collapse much further. Paul Pedley of the Home Builders Federation says, "I have been in this industry for 30 years, and housing is now as affordable as I can ever remember. But we need confidence to come back into the market. Confidence will inevitably return, as housebuilding never really loses a customer. The need for new homes is gradually getting pent up, and when the market improves and that demand is finally released, there will be rampant house-price inflation."

Posted by little professor @ 08:14 AM (2159 views)
Please complete the required fields.



16 thoughts on “Rampant ramping

  • mark wadsworth says:

    If you’re doing castle jokes, shouldn’t that be “Rampant ramping from the ramparts”?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • When will the UK wake up the FACT that recovery does not mean going back to irresponsible lending that led to property prices losing all relation to earning, inflating 190% in a decade and the banks going broke. This week the FSA are due to bring in measures to ensure sensible lending is here to stay and loan to income ratios stay at around 3.5, meaning property prices have to now fall 40 – 50% or more for lenders to be able to return to sensible lending practices. Northern Rock is lending at 3.5 currently. Whether property now looks cheap we need to compare total house prices to economic output. Since 1930 Britain’s homes have on average tended to be worth about five and a half times GDP per head. Even after the downturn of the past 12 months, this ratio still stands at a historically high 6.3 – and on that basis if prices have already fallen 25% prices need to fall by another 15% before they are fairly valued. Some analysts have suggested an even bigger fall may be necessary.
    The Numis Report this week was scathing of the government even suggesting there would ever be a return to 2007 lending levels that saw the UK borrowing 750 billion from overseas to support a property bubble nobody could afford. CAN THERE BE ANY DOUBT IN ANYONE’S MIND THAT THE UK COULD NOT AFFORD INFLATED PROPERTY PRICES, if property has to now drop 50% for sensible lending practices to be resumed?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • justwatching says:

    lying chunt

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Very good Mark.

    The article writers argument hinges on Kate Barker’s report which is now largely discredited – the clue is in the remit she was given to investigate housing supply issues in the UK (while completely ignoring demand factors).

    The article also completely ignores the million or so empty homes in the UK. Also, if housing demand is so high, why are housing rents falling?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Shamless sh!te.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • happy mondays says:

    Blah Blah Blah vi Blah Blah Blah vi

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • “housing is now as affordable as I can ever remember.”

    I don’t think so.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • @paul, can you elaborate more on why the Barker Report is ‘discredited’.

    It was a crucial report in the scheme of things and has been at the heart of planning policy and the basis of the drive for unfettered building around the country.

    It is clearly still being used by VIs and rampers. And Kate’s profile (at the discredited BoE*) still gives her authority and kudos.

    *Who put her on the BoE committee? Brown the man who commissioned her flawed report.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Eternal Sceptic says:

    “is somewhere along the bottom” of its economic cycle! Dream on you severely deluded fool

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • The guy has obviously got a very short memory

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tinker, the report was discredited for the reasons in my post by the independent I think.

    If I remember correctly, according to the article, the very premise of the report was that the housing crisis is a supply side issue. It completely ignored the role of credit availability in mortgage demand because then the report would have concluded that a large component of housing demand is due to cheap credit, not ‘lack of housing supply’.

    The article concluded that the report was a very thorough piece of research based on a fundamentally flawed premise.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Mr Pidgley, CEO of Berkeley, says that the housing market “is somewhere along the bottom” of its economic cycle, meaning prices shouldn’t collapse much further

    I looked at that and thought it was said by a Mr Pigley…..yeah, and pigs might fly too.

    No one is going to buy in the current economic climate.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Somebody stop housebuilders, bankers or estate agents telling peopple what to believe. What 20% margin? Is this a joke? How much did they pay for the land?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    To echo quiet guy:

    No. Perhaps yes on your hallucinogenic wish-planet, but, frankly, no.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tyrellcorporation says:

    “housing is now as affordable as I can ever remember.”

    Um, when I bought a 3 bed townhouse in 95 I earned £30k and paid £83k for the house. Put it this way, my wage is slightly higher now but a similar house would set me back £260k. This 4rshole obviously can’t remember as far back as the late 90’s then can he?!?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tyrellcorporation says:

    …the house was in Oxfordshire too, not some bombed out industrial wasteland running with mercury and acid.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



Add a comment

  • Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
  • Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user´s views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
  • Please adhere to the Guidelines

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>