Sunday, March 8, 2009

A fall of another 20% this years seems reasonable says the Guardian

Housing: if there's another 40% fall on the cards

I think we are going to see this more and more, finally people not speaking of "green shoots" but 40% falls . This would seem to go hand in hand with people speaking about loan to income ratios of 3.5 or less. I hope that finally we will see more articles like this one than ones that imply that house prices are EVER going to shoot back up. We now have to bring house prices in line with wages and sensible lending and start to address all the problems caused by irresponsible lending.

Posted by sybil13 @ 10:55 AM (692 views)
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4 thoughts on “A fall of another 20% this years seems reasonable says the Guardian

  • I do not think this article is sensible.
    It seems to me that EA and RICS, and House Builders, in fact anyone with a vested interest, is purposefully pushing the idea of a ‘false bottom’.
    The very people who just last year, swore, that house prices would not crash, now seem to be saying that, Ok, they will crash by 40% and then we should all jump in!
    The type of house that I want, a small 2 bed bunglaow. With a small patch of grass is STILL presently priced at £240k.
    It was sold in 2000 for £78k.

    A 40% reduction would revalue this property at £144k. Which is still an increase of £66k since 2000.

    Even with a 40% reduction it is still massively overpriced.

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  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    Nice article – simple, straightforward.

    Overshoot to -50% perhaps?

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  • Yes, I think he nicely summed-up the current situation.

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  • “in line with long-term average”

    What does the long-term average look like if you remove this latest, most overheated ever, bubble from consideration? Far, far lower.

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