Tuesday, February 10, 2009

It doesn’t look good

Wall Street: Thumbs down on bailout

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slumped Tuesday afternoon after the Obama administration's overhaul of the bank bailout plan failed to reassure investors unnerved by the ongoing fallout in the financial sector.

Posted by v stor @ 07:30 PM (835 views)
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7 thoughts on “It doesn’t look good

  • Yup! Still Gravitating

    Dow Jones Industrial Average
    7,871.28 -399.59 / -4.83%

    Feb 10 3:21pm ET †
    Open: 8,269.36
    High (day): 8,269.44
    Low (day): 7,867.13
    YTD%Change: -10.31%
    Volume: 285,906,774.00
    Prev. Close: 8,270.87
    52-Week Range (Low – High): 7,449.38 – 13,136.69

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  • January’s 8.6% fall in the S&P 500 makes this year’s opening month the worst since the inception of the index in 1957.

    Robin Griffiths, chief technical analyst at Cazenove Capital Management and a prominent industry figure for more than 40 years, believes if the S&P, which is currently trading around 825 points, dips below the 800-point barrier, it can be taken as a signal the current economic packages are failing in the eyes of investors.

    He said: ‘A break below 800 is a signal the investing public has come to the conclusion that these packages aren’t going to work – we may need another package costing more money, or something else.’

    As a prodigious researcher of market cycles and patterns, Griffiths looks for trigger points that dictate the direction of the markets. He said: ‘If the S&P breaks the 741 barrier it will fall further, even below 600.’

    He said evidence was emerging that people were already starting to lose confidence in stimulus packages. He said the ‘rapidly falling’ yields on 30-year Treasury bills – which are seen as a gauge for investor appetite – are a sign of growing unease. He said: ‘People are losing faith in the bond market.’
    The rise in the price of gold as a consequence of greater demand is another good indicator, Griffiths noted. He added the ‘dangerous’ protectionist rhetoric in the US and the decline in opinion polls of President Obama’s popularity all hint at the same point. He said: ‘It’s all straws in the wind, but it builds a picture.’

    Griffiths said President Obama’s honeymoon period – traditionally seen as lasting 90 days from the inauguration – might be cut short. He said: ‘Obama’s job is difficult and now that he has been there for a bit, there is a dawning realisation that nobody can make this work. Expectations are changing.’

    FULL STORY http://www.citywire.co.uk/selector/-/news/fund-manager-interviews/content.aspx?ID=328945

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  • interesting moves in the markets yesterday. S&Ps at a critical level of support that it may (weakly) bounce off of and then plunge below. In my view this isnt “it” thats to come later. Was looking for 4400 on the FTSE in the last upmove but didnt quite get there but i bit the bullet and re-e-versed to the dark (short) side.

    As for the gbp v Euro. take a look at an “old” chart on this page http://www.gftforex.com/analysis/595/impact-of-ecb-and-boe-rate-decisions-on-eurgbp

    The Euro lost ground after that but seems to have reversed to the upside with yesterdays move bouncing off the level after a retracement between the 50 and 61.8% levels from the whole upmove from 7700 in october. The low of the move from the top was 8640 was just briefly breached support at 8660.

    The question is is the sharp move yesterday – that has the look of a key reversal – a change of trend back to the upside and arguing for another assault on parity.

    The key here is how the next retracement to this upmove manifests and what happens at the 20 day MA.

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  • So was it Timmy’s Mallet that caused the downmove? This looks interesting:


    and while on the subject those boys have made other comments on the yellow stuff. Apparently in the US there are lots of commercials for Gold….. hmmm are US hairdressers buying?


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  • Techieman thought the weakening of sterling looked decisive being so brutal and so sudden after its rally. It looks as if the UK is being viewed as one big financial as it seems to rise and fall on financial news, and all the old concerns of a few weeks ago are back to roost.

    Sold a reasonable amount of sterling yesterday afternoon. An attempt on parity with Euro would be an attempt on $1.36 or <120 yen which would be worth backing!

    If you see any signs of a turning point let me know. Appreciate you don't follow USD or Yen but sterlings movements seems to be quite synchronised at present when it comes to these currencies.

    Yeah the FT has hardly budged after yesterdays plunge in the us so must be anticipating a big rally. Yesterday's plunge had no strong underlying reason the plan isn't a game changer either way and deep down the market probably knew that was always going to be the case. Expect a rally in financials in the US so bought Wells Fargo which has been a recent play of mine, it is a financial with problems (as they all do) but at least it appears solvent for now.

    Feeling weird about gold and sold at $920, it really isn't doing better than certain kinds of hard cash right now and don't see why that should change. Commercial use is off a cliff and welleverything is depreciating against cash and will continue to do so (unless central govts give away cash PROPERLY) so what need for gold.

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  • just to make this post 6 so get attention seeking fire symbol!

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  • Bellwether – I think its a “wicked” call to go for parity on the Euro now but that really is a reward worth taking on some risk. I hope you got em off at a reasonable level but as i said its what happens after this sharp move up thats the key…. i.e. will a retracement against the EUR upmove be within a retracement containment level or indicate a continuation of the prior (since year end) strength of sterling.

    I am with you on that one…… but wouldnt sell sterling heavily until ive seen the shape of that retracement.

    As the FTSE i think that this is just a pause for breath myself – waiting to see if the support level holds in the S&P. If not (and i think it might play around a bit but soon wont hold) then we see a big downmove perhaps to test last years lows. However thats not “it” because then we see a more major upmove (in my view) and then a collapse. Thats the shape as of now that i am expecting (although i also expect the unexpected), As i said i am positioned to the dark side, so i think we disagree on this.

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