Saturday, February 28, 2009

AEP goes off the deep end……

We need shock and awe policies to halt depression

"We have been lulled into a false sense of security by the lack of "soup kitchens". The visual cues from Steinbeck's America are missing. "The temptation for investors is to see this as just another recession, over by the end of the year. But this is not a normal cycle. It is a cataclysmic structural breakdown." I read AEP and end up feeling like I have been repeated beaten over the head with a plank. All the negative figures & quotes. Can it really be true? Is this the end of days? Or is AEP just a Cassandra de nos jours?

Posted by goweresque @ 11:15 PM (4397 views)
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7 thoughts on “AEP goes off the deep end……

  • charlie brooker says:

    If they’d had bookies during Cassandra’s time and she’d made loads of money fromplacing bets on her visions people would have sat up and believed her, the shallow bar stewards.

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  • AEP has called most things in this crash between days and months before the market has correctly priced them….

    why did hillary go to china and what are the chinese going to do here? they have their own meltdown happening…

    maybe not end of days but end of the days as we know them

    if the easton european and ireland do debt default it will spread to second tier like new zealand and other smaller countries real quick, second round effects here we come.

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  • I normally find myself in broad agreement with AEP, but this time he seems to looking at the trees but not the woods.

    The developed world’s manufacturing economy is far more focused on non-essentials today than was the case in the 1930’s, so it is not surprising that a severe economic upset translates into a dramatic drop in manufacturing output – people do not NEED a new car, they do not NEED a new TV..

    The big losers out of all this are going to be countries like China, who allowed themselves to swap manufactured goods for IOU’s denominated in someone else’s currency..

    There will be inflation in the USA – they have no credible option but to engineer it – and as a result, the dollar will drop against the Chinese Yuan – dramaticaly so, and at great expense to the Chinese..

    Trying to work out exactly what is going to happen in the eurozone is quite tricky – just how bad IS the eastern europe debt problem? – and who exactly owns the debt that may get defaulted on? – might this come back to China again, or is this Russian oil money??

    French president Sarkozy’s vigorous insistance recently that French taxpayer’s money must only go to protect jobs in France – and not elsewhere in europe, brought howls of dismay from the Brussels elite – but he is absolutely in tune with French public opinion.

    Historically, the French have a tendency to throw their toys out of the pram from time to time, and after a lot of patriotic fervour, put together a new version of La Republique. This might be on the cards now.

    The country that helped launch the european ideal, might be about to torpedo it – and with it, the euro..

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  • I think AEP alienates alot of people not because he has consistently and largely accurately in my view described the pace of deterioration but because of the solution which his view infers and which he occasionally refers to ie it is not possible to hair shirt this situation things are way too dire for that. The leisurely pace of the great depression indeed.

    Tom you are right on the non essentials but it was these that the worlds GDP was predictated on, a contraction will have the same result.

    I guess the idea is to have a really bad recession for a number of years to squeeze out the excess without a chaotic descent into the abyss. Doubt that is as easy as many think.

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    test

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    This text is scratched out!

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    test

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